Cold throughout the coming week.Snow for some

Villain

Cheers guys, you'd think they would have it nearer the top.

Snowbie

Here irish1
http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0206/6news_av.html?2216670,null,230

EDIT:didnt see the other posts,very true croppy,took me this long to find the link.

rc28

I have to say Evelyn presents the forecast with way more clarity than the rest of them at the met.

Ryanoneill2006

God its very quiet in here tonight.. Thought there would be some major ramping going on!! Where's Weathercheck

Scubadevils

Ryanoneill2006 wrote:

Where's Weathercheck

Up in Met Éireann making sure they say the s word in the next forecast

Tis quiet alright

SpitfireIV

I'm still here........just waiting for someone more skilled at weather than me to say something

Scubadevils

Ok, some more negativity from me. Below image is the risk chart from the UK Met...If they were to continue and cover Ireland, you would figure that from around Dundalk to Roscrea would be in the 30% risk bracket? By that same logic Wexford/Waterford would be in the 60%? Or am I way off the mark? (someone please tell me I am)

ninebeanrows

Im here! But there isn't really much to add from what i said earlier.. from here on in its about actual events and this means satellite and radar watching from tomorrow morning.

It seems at the moment that the snow will affect worst.. areas of Northern Leinster, the Northern Midlands and southern Ulster.

This is where the band is likely to stay as snow throughout.

Further south there is the liklyhood of lying snow but it may turn back to rain towards midday Thursday.

Now the keen wind from the east will reach mean speeds of around 35mph along the east coast during Thursday, this will increase the liklyhood of heavy snow reaching the ground and may cause lying snow to drift.

I expect the snow to begin falling in Dublin from around 3/4am on Thursday morning. The snow will be moderate to heavy and by midday Thursday there should be upto 10cm's lying or more in some parts of Dublin. The north midlands will fair best with totals possibly exceeding 20cm's

Areas within 1km of the coast and at sea level will have less accumulations than those 5 or 6km's inland.

So thats my synopsis.

Will be available all afternoon from 1pm tomorrow to watch the developing situation... It's is going to be an interesting day and probably a very long night tomorrow so ensure you get plenty of sleep if you considering taking this to the bitter end... ie. staying up to 4am!:D

Now to the 18z... should be out momentarily

ninebeanrows

Felixdhc wrote:

Ok, some more negativity from me. Below image is the risk chart from the UK Met...If they were to continue and cover Ireland, you would figure that from around Dundalk to Roscrea would be in the 30% risk bracket? By that same logic Wexford/Waterford would be in the 60%? Or am I way off the mark? (someone please tell me I am)

I was abit miffed by that but that was based on the 0z ukm.. 12z has move it a good bit further north.. the 12z UKM would definately give snow here as in central Dublin;)

Scubadevils

Weathercheck wrote:

I was abit miffed by that but that was based on the 0z ukm.. 12z has move it a good bit further north.. the 12z UKM would definately give snow here as in central Dublin;)

Cheers, lets hope its not pushed south again on the next few runs :eek:

Supercell

Boards is painfully slow this evening, next to unusable , at least on dialup.

I'm holding fire on forcasts of precipitation until tomorrow after work, this all important low could still go too far north or too far south for here, no point in forecasting snow just yet.
I'd guess Waterford city and north county is most likely to see some snow at least temporarily, but beyond that..its all in the air (literally) imho.

arctictree

Longfield - can you not get broadband where you are? Don't worry boards is slow for the rest of us aswell. Seems to be server issues.

OK - Just seen the 9:30 forecast from Evelyn.

This looks like it could be a major event for Dublin. Timing is right (4am) and it is frontal snow - which is a completely different animal from what we experienced a couple of weeks ago. Thursday morning will definitely be interesting.

What happens up here is a different story....

A

Ryanoneill2006

It's good to see that Met Eireann are now warning a threat of snow on their weather reports. Evelyn Cusack mentioned significant falls especially in Leinster and Munster. Its a welcome change for me as its usually Ulster and Connaught!! Still not sure whether to get my hopes up or not.. There have been too many let downs in the past.

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote:

Now to the 18z... should be out momentarily

Guess you saw the 18z too.

Scubadevils

18z, downgrade for tomorrow night?

SpitfireIV

Snowbie wrote:

Guess you saw the 18z too.

Felixdhc wrote:

18z, downgrade for tomorrow night?

Oh oh, doesnt sound good, please explain for us not 'in the know'

nacho libre

If it doesn't snow tomorrow night and continue till Thursday afternoon i'm going
to a country with a colder climate for the rest of the winter.
It's going to snow! positive thinking...!!

Snowbie

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Oh oh, doesnt sound good, please explain for us not 'in the know'

Remember my reply to your question before

Snowbie wrote:

Sorry croppy but there is no straight definite answer for you.These things can change at +12 hrs out.You are a favoured location but 100% are the mountains.No met person is clear on it too.What you will hear is southern half or northern half of the country.TBH im one of the lesser likely to get the white stuff but you have a good decent chance.Wedensday evening will paint a clearer pic for you.

Not all doom and gloom but not a good run.Proggs the front farther to the North.Id still wait untill 6/1 forecast tomorrow to be sure if you get snow or something else.

Scubadevils

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Oh oh, doesnt sound good, please explain for us not 'in the know'

From my extremely limted knowledge, the low moves quicker and in a more nth direction pulling in warmer air...we are borderline -5 850hpa by 12am tomorrow night. I expect to stand corrected on this though

Also, even more telling, neither Weathercheck or Darkman have commented, which cant be good.

Oh and for the sake of downgrades :mad:

darkman2

The 18z tonight is ok but its not great. Still snow in the expected places but its more progressive then the others. Sends the front through quicker and not quite at the angle we would like. Also sends it further North. So its not bad but it could have been better. Still the UKMO looks great and hopefully tomorrow we will have certainty with what will happen. Still good prospects.:)

SpitfireIV

Cheers Snowbie and Felixdhc, ye're two gents amoung...ehh......lots of weather folk

Snowbie

True Felix good account,ah the two rampers are in turmoil id say.:D

All things can change again.Its a bad run,1 out of a lot of good runs,ok bad timing but who knows.

Scubadevils

darkman2 wrote:

The 18z tonight is ok but its not great. Still snow in the expected places but its more progressive then the others. Sends the front through quicker and not quite at the angle we would like. Also sends it further North. So its not bad but it could have been better. Still the UKMO looks great and hopefully tomorrow we will have certainty with what will happen. Still good prospects.:)

What do you make of the latest fax charts? Whatever attempts I can make on the models with nice colours etc I havent a clue about the faxes

Oh and 18z, pub run hopefully

Villain

Ah thats the pub run, ignore that

Seriously though it is a bad downgrade for now, wouldn't be the first time I saw a downgrade on the pub run.

Lets just wait and see.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

True Felix good account,ah the two rampers are in turmoil id say.:D

All things can change again.Its a bad run,1 out of a lot of good runs,ok bad timing but who knows.

Firstly the 18z is not bad by any means and also im not 'ramping' up snow. Like I keep saying too much uncertainty to get excited atm. What I want is clarity either way. Either its going to snow or its not. Unfortunatley it would appear tonight that there is the same confusion there was last night and we are not going to be able to say with any certainty whats going to happen on Thursday. I would not want people to think that some sort of cosmic event or something is going to happen on Thursday. I expect at best moderate snowfall Thursday morning. Thats at best IMO. At worst I expect sleet in the morning then rain.:rolleyes:

Still time for things to improve further.

darkman2

Felixdhc wrote:

What do you make of the latest fax charts? Whatever attempts I can make on the models with nice colours etc I havent a clue about the faxes

Oh and 18z, pub run hopefully

The fax charts are excellent. An entire day of snow on Thursday from those charts HOWEVER those charts inevitably are going to change to varying degrees between now and Thursday. Still up in the air.:)

Scubadevils

darkman2 wrote:

The fax charts are excellent. An entire day of snow on Thursday from those charts HOWEVER those charts inevitably are going to change to varying degrees between now and Thursday. Still up in the air.:)

Cheers Darkman

I wonder how they are feeling about the 18z output at the NOAA - I saw yesterday that they dismissed most runs and felt they were too progressive, couldnt find the link tonight to see if there are comments, prob straw`clutching anyway

We should know by this time tomorrow night, and if it goes t*ts up, I want suggestions for a new hobby for next winter

squonk

Just heard the 11:55 Radio 1 weather now and the Eagle didn't ramp up anything much. They're very much pushing the sleet turning to rain scenario. Out here in Skerries we've got cloud but it could be a bank of mist. It'll be interesting alright to see what's happening this time tomorrow but I'd imagine this will end up in tears as usual.... want to eat my words in the end though

ninebeanrows

Okay folks the UKMO 0z is in

And its great or actually kinda worrying

Heavy snow will reach Dublin around 1am now... With temps @1c... snow will get heavier and @6am it will be 0c with Heavy snow.. By midday tomorrow it will be 0/1c with snow pushing away north:D

ninebeanrows

Today

Overnight falls of snow along the East Coast and severe frost will leave very icy conditions on untreated roads. Otherwise many places will be dry, bright and sunny his morning with patches of freezing fog gradually lifting. Cold, as temperatures remain below freezing for a good part of the morning but will then slowly rise to between 4 and 7C. Outbreaks of rain sleet and snow will gradually develop through the day in southwest Munster as southeasterly winds strenghten.

Tonight

Rain, sleet and snow will then extend to the rest of country this evening and tonight. It will be cold and windy with lowest temperatures between -2 and +3C.

horizontal rule

Tomorrow

Further rain, sleet and snow in the northern half of the country tomorrow morning.

Im sorry but surely that is not acceptable.. at less than a day out surely they have to give some indication of where will see snow or not..

Theres abig difference between 12 hours + of rain and snow.. poor show tbh.. they should be at least indicating where they think the snow will be..

Anyway it has absolutely no baring on anything.. Snow from 1am in Dublin tonite;)