Snow Falling or Snow Potential within 24hrs only.

Villain

From my understanding Temps were always expected to rise to bewteen 2c and 7c during the day and thats why the first band of PPN will be sleet and rain on lower levels, hwoever temps will fall back tonight so when the second band of PPN arrives it will give snow in some places, however following behind that band is warmer air which will give rain tomorrow afternoon.

Thats from my limited understanding.

Snowbie

Agree MM, 410w/m2 is my highest sun so far making it strong enough to raise temps and to feel warmish right up to 5.2c DP is -1.5c.

I just cant make a call on tonight though.
Looks to be good with DP but in a clear enough sky.As my snow last night the DP remained sub -1c so is one of the key factors out of the way?.Wind is defo east and dp remains.Thats the good news.

Then the air temp,now i think that will be the problem.Its how low it can go for us coastal people.It really needs to below 1.5c max. for snow to settle in the heavier precip any higher and we would need to go higher ground for snow.

dloob

Humm the radar shows that band of precipitation passing over Galway but its been dry in the city all morning.

darkman2

The first band you see on the radar is suppose to either die out or ammalgamate with the second heavier band just coming in Munster.


Now down to the detail.


It has made sharper progress then I was expecting. Ideally if your to have a realistic chance of snow you want clear enough skies this evening to allow the temperatures to drop. Unfortunatley this does not look like being the case for those already under the weak occlusion ahead of the 'main event' so to speak. Whilst it may be slightly further north then originally thought I dont expect it to progress much further during daylight hours today as per the models. Its being countered by a strengthening Easterly wind and is rather sliding across the southwest as the isobars tighten ahead of it. This front is rain but this is not the front we are interested in. Its the second, more potent one. As this moves across the country its going to, if you like, join with the front over Munster and move into south Leinster and move into the much colder air on its Northern flank. The midlands of course most favoured for snow and I agree with the Eagle, if the midlands does not see snowfall tonight it would be nothing short of a miracle. On the East Coast. Errrmmmm this is where things get far more tricky. Im gonna wait until later before making my mind up on whether its worthwhile staying up into the early hours;)

SpitfireIV

Way-hey, Met Eireann finally issued a warning

met eireann wrote:

Issued at 07 February 2007 - 11:55

Severe Weather Alert- Snow

Warning of significant snow fall tonight, Wednesday night, and also for a time Thursday morning.

General :
Very cold and frosty this evening.
A spell of rain and sleet in south Munster this afternoon, will extend northwards this evening and tonight, and will fall as snow in many places.
Moderate to high accumulations of snow can be expected and some drifting is likely in the strong easterly winds.
Areas most at risk are Ulster, Connacht and much of Leinster and north Munster.
Snow amounts of 3 to 6 cm expected generally, but locally 8 to 10 cm, especially parts of the north Midlands and Ulster.
Much of south Munster and the far south of Leinster should see only small amounts of snow, if any, and this mainly on mountains and high ground, but some heavy falls of rain are likely.

Validity time :
Ulster 08 / 0200 to 1500

Leinster 07 / 2000 to 1100

Connacht 07 / 2000 to 0900

Munster 07 / 1800 to 2300.

Mothman

Mothman wrote:

Yes but the Irish Sea bouy has a -4C DP at 9am, if that air can hang around for a while..

Thats what I was thinking.
The M2 buoy in our february snow last year was reporting temps of 5 or 6c with positive dew points.
Right now it's dp is -1.9c with an air temp of 4.9c

My dp is -1.6c with an air temp of 3.8c and an air flow of 5 to 10mph now straight easterly off the sea.
RH is 68%

Almost completely cloudy here now which is stopping the temp from rising,though it is hovering a few percentage points.

Barometer is 999.9 and falling.

I dont blame the met for covering all angles on this.

Put it this way,I'd like the temp at least a degree colder.
Presently current conditions here anyway support sleet with snow above 500ft more than 4 miles inland.

The Davis has the snow symbol on it though-for all the good that will do :rolleyes:

darkman2

Wont be much sun around tonight though!;)

Snowbie

5.8c in now weak sunshine.:rolleyes:
The FARS or the fan on the weather staion is keeping temp accurate:( How i would like to not believe it.You can actually feel warmth in the sun when breeze dies.

Anyway altostratus and cumulus moving west to east over head and stratus frags moving east to west from the sea.

temp just plunged to 5.5c.
Wind picking up from SE
HUM 59%
DP -2c
Bar 1000.6hpa and dropping fast.

Ryanoneill2006

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Way-hey, Met Eireann finally issued a warning

At long lost.. Weathercheck will be happy

Tristrame, what do you reckon the chance of us on the East Coast getting a covering by morning? I know you are a fair distance south of me but generally we don't do very well out of snow events as we're smack bang on the coast.

However the fact that Met Eireann are now talking about Moderate to High Accumalations, I have a feeling this time may be different!

darkman2

DP on the Irish sea a very good -2.7C atm. That is excellent even more so with the temp relatively high so we could reasonably expect that to fall after dark. So not looking bad for the East Coast atm.:)

darkman2

Anybody hear the radio forcast? Mentioned 'drifting' and 'significant' - Leinster, Ulster, Connaught.;)

ninebeanrows

Well folks a very slow thaw here.. theres still snow on the shadowed areas and on the grass..

Things will cool down this evening.. back to 1/2c before the front and down to 0/1c when it arrives

Ryanoneill2006

Ryanoneill2006 wrote:

Tristrame, what do you reckon the chance of us on the East Coast getting a covering by morning? I know you are a fair distance south of me but generally we don't do very well out of snow events as we're smack bang on the coast.

I'd say its more possible than unpossible.
It's probably more likely in Dublin than down with me but if the precip starts as snow with me tonight,I'd put it as a dead cert that there will be snow when it reaches Dublin.

I don't like the wet bulb temps but the good news is that they are dropping with me and once they are below 2c,they are ok.
Currently my wet bulb is +1.7c

At this stage I'm 100% confident that artic tree and Longfield will have drifts.
One thing is sure longfield will not be making the drive to work tomorrow morning.
But those two posters are in the wicklow mts more or less.

LookingFor

darkman2 wrote:

Anybody hear the radio forcast? Mentioned 'drifting' and 'significant' - Leinster, Ulster, Connaught.;)

Yeah, their website's forecast echos that too.

Very cold and windy tonight with strong easterly winds and with frost developing in many places after dark. A spell of rain and sleet will spread from the south and will fall as snow in many places. Some significant falls of snow are expected, especially over Connacht, much of Leinster and Ulster, with some drifting in places before dawn. Lowest temperatures -3 to plus 2 C.

Seems like they've finally fallen on one side of the fence on this But I'm not going to get my hopes up until I see it happen. Things fell apart seemingly just at the last minute last time.

I'm in Dublin 15, so hoping I'm far enough in-land for things to be a little more certain. We'll see I guess.

Ryanoneill2006

Just caught the Lunchtime Weather.. "SIGNIFICANT SNOW TONIGHT"

Areas most at risk... Leinster, Connaught & Munster!!

arctictree

Keeping a close eye on this one!

Temp dropping fast here:

11:20am 2.8
11:40am 2.6
12:00pm 2.7
12:20pm 2.3
12:40pm 2.0
1:00pm 2.0
1:20pm 1.6

A sign of things to come??

Skies still clear....

A

Scubadevils

Well that was certainly a full on ramp from Nuala on the lunchtime weather! They displayed the weather warning twice in relation to snowfall

Ice_Box

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0207/weather.html

"Up to 6cm of snow could accumulate on the ground, and maybe up to 10cm in parts of the north Midlands and Ulster."

Felixdhc

Felixdhc wrote:

Well that was certainly a full on ramp from Nuala on the lunchtime weather! They displayed the weather warning twice in relation to snowfall

Ah they had to do that because they've hardly mentioned it at all up untill now.
They now probably privately expect 6 inches or more in places and not warning people about that would make for some very unhappy bunnies especially local authorities.

My Temp has dropped by 0.6c since morning so thats half the drop that artictree got.

Still down to the wire for here,I'm waiting untill the wind picks up and I see the after dark temps/wet bulb before I call it for here.
Still thinking sleet though.

Danno

That radar is showing ANAPROP at the moment.

Rang everyone I knew living along the N8 south of here - just cloudy.

Or it could be high level wintry precip that isn't hitting the ground.

By the way remember also that the Radar over plays precip when it is snow.

darkman2

Danno wrote:

That radar is showing ANAPROP at the moment.

Rang everyone I knew living along the N8 south of here - just cloudy.

Jezus - if I went around ringing all my friends asking whether it was raining they would probrably think I was nuts:D Culchies eh;)

Thinking 2 or 3cm for my area atm. Of course have to see the evening charts before being sure of anything.

Danno

I think tis band of precip will not hit the N coast. I expect snow lying from The Galtees up to Fermanagh, and inland of 5 miles of the east coast. Highest precips will be in Wicklow, Carlow, Laois, Offaly,Tipp North, Westmeath, Meath, Dublin, Roscommon, Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim, Louth and Cavan. IMHO.

Mothman

Snowbie wrote:

5.8c in now weak sunshine.:rolleyes:

I woudn't mind that, it's the sub zero DP is the one I'm watching. Precipitation will bring cold air down. DP will rise, but if starting from -2C or below, a rise in DP mightened matter too much.

The one factor against is the cloud preventing cooling ahead of front.

Max today in sunshine 5.8C, down to 4.3C now. DP -1.3C, I'd like to see it a degree lower.

joe316

Danno wrote:

I think tis band of precip will not hit the N coast. I expect snow lying from The Galtees up to Fermanagh, and inland of 5 miles of the east coast. Highest precips will be in Wicklow, Carlow, Laois, Offaly,Tipp North, Westmeath, Meath, Dublin, Roscommon, Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim, Louth and Cavan. IMHO.

every county around the black hole that is kildare

Takeshi_Kovacs

Well that band of ppn shown on the radar is definetely doing a detour around my area. Very dark and omninous cloud to the east, but looking westwards, it is much lighter and there is a surreal orange glow petering through.
Strong breeze blowing from the east, feels very bitter.

mothman

Dew point here now -2.4c

Air temp +3.8c
RH 64%
Barometer 998.4 falling
Wind East 4 to 12 mph

Conditions-Cloudy

mothman wrote:

I'd like to see it a degree lower.

I'd like to see it at least 1.5c colder and preferably 2c colder.

Not impossible come night time

Looking at DP's Cork airport at 531ft asl is reporting rain with a temp of 5c and a dp of +4c

Dublin airport and casement have 4c and a dp of -2c

Rosslare has 5c and a dp of -3c

Kilkenny has 4c and a dp of -2c

Those temps will have to fall and that mild sector in Cork will have to stay put.

Robxxx7

Takeshi_Kovacs wrote:

Well that band of ppn shown on the radar is definetely doing a detour around my area. Very dark and omninous cloud to the east, but looking westwards, it is much lighter and there is a surreal orange glow petering through.
Strong breeze blowing from the east, feels very bitter.

Same here... Definately an orange glow to the clouds .. The wind has picked up since about 9am this morning and the air pressure here is 992 and still dropping, although temp is about 5c feels a lot colder because of the wind

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

Looking at DP's Cork airport at 531ft asl is reporting rain with a temp of 5c and a dp of +4c

Dublin airport and casement have 4c and a dp of -2c

Rosslare has 5c and a dp of -3c

Kilkenny has 4c and a dp of -2c

Those temps will have to fall and that mild sector in Cork will have to stay put.

Warm sector won't make any further inroads after 6pm this evening.. the -5c 850hpa line will be from saw Wicklow to in a line to Mayo/Leitrim and will stay like that for 12 hours or more as winds swing east and just slide the cold pool along that line