Coefficients for World Cup 2010 Qualification

Raskolnikov

http://www.dragonsoccer.co.uk/euro2008/UEFA%20EURO%202008%20TM%20Qualifying%20Draw%20seedings.pdf

This is something for us to be aware of for the remaining qualification campaign. Doing some quick calculations, unless we can win all of our remaining matches, we don't have a chance of being seeded second (let alone first). So realistically, I think we need to raise the level of performance to push us in as third seeds. Otherwise we could face a nightmare draw putting us against Portugal, Italy and Serbia and Montenegro :eek:

Despite having played our two easiest matches, we've actually fallen back from last years performance. Our coefficient has dropped from 1.7 (overall for 2006 qualification) to 1.4. I would guess that we need to raise this to about 1.6-1.7 to be sure of being third seeds for the next qualification competition. So being realistic we need the following string of results to put us into the third pot for qualification

Wales @ Home: Win
Slovakia @ Home: Win
Slovakia @ Away: Draw
Czech Rep @ Away: Lose
Germany @ Home: Draw
Cyprus @ Home: Win
Wales @ Away: Win

If we get that sequence of results, we will average 1.66. co efficient points, that should be just enough to put us in as third seeds for qualification.

What do people think? Realistic? Any errors?

thewing

Who cares?We're f*cked.....

LostinBlanch

So we're going to take 10 points out of a possible 12 from Wales and Slovakia?

With Staunton in charge? I'm afraid Cyprus is about our level if he stays. :mad:

eirebhoy

Seedings atm..

[B][U]World Cup 2006[/U][/B]	[U][B]Euro 2008[/U][/B]		
		[B]Team	Played	Points	Played	Points	Avg Points[/B]
1	A	Holland	12	32	4	10	2.625
2	A	Sweden	10	24	4	12	2.571428571
3	A	Germany			4	10	2.5
4	A	Croatia	10	24	4	10	2.428571429
5	A	Czech   12	27	4	10	2.3125
6	A	England	10	25	4	7	2.285714286
7	A	Serbia	10	22	4	10	2.285714286
8	B	Portugl	12	30	3	4	2.266666667
9	B	Poland	10	24	4	7	2.214285714
10	B	Italy	10	23	4	7	2.142857143
11	B	Romania	12	25	3	7	2.133333333
12	B	Turkey	12	23	3	9	2.133333333
13	B	France	10	20	4	9	2.071428571
14	B	Ukraine	12	25	3	6	2.066666667
15	C	Greece	12	21	3	9	2
16	C	Russia	12	23	4	8	1.9375
17	C	Denmark	12	22	3	7	1.933333333
18	C	Norway	10	18	3	6	1.846153846
19	C	Slovak.	12	23	4	6	1.8125
20	C	Switz.	10	18			1.8
21	C	Israel	10	18	4	7	1.785714286
22	D	Spain	10	20	3	3	1.769230769
23	D	Bulgar.	10	15	4	8	1.642857143
24	D	[B]Ireland[/B]	10	17	5	7	1.6
25	D	Finland	12	16	5	11	1.588235294
26	D	Scotlnd	10	13	4	9	1.571428571
27	D	Austria	10	15			1.5
28	D	Bosnia	10	16	4	4	1.428571429
29	E	Belgium	10	12	5	7	1.266666667
30	E	Hungary	10	14	4	3	1.214285714
31	E	Latvia	12	15	3	3	1.2
32	E	Sloven.	10	12	3	3	1.153846154
33	E	N.Irel	10	9	4	7	1.142857143
34	E	Estonia	12	17	3	0	1.133333333
35	E	Lithua.	10	10	3	4	1.076923077
36	F	Belarus	10	10	4	4	1
37	F	Maced.	12	9	5	7	0.941176471
38	F	Albania	12	13	3	1	0.933333333
39	F	Wales	10	8	3	3	0.846153846
40	F	Georgia	12	10	4	3	0.8125
41	F	Cyprus	10	4	4	4	0.571428571
42	F	Liecht.	12	8	3	0	0.533333333
43		Armenia	12	7	4	1	0.5
44		Iceland	10	4	4	3	0.5
45		Malta	10	3	3	3	0.461538462
46		Moldova	10	5	4	1	0.428571429
47		Andorra	12	5	4	0	0.3125
48		Azerb.	10	3	4	1	0.285714286
49		Kazakh.	12	1	5	2	0.176470588
50		Faroes 10	1	4	0	0.071428571
51		Luxem.	12	0	3	0	0
52		San M.	10	0	4	0	0

Raskolnikov

LostinBlanch wrote:

So we're going to take 10 points out of a possible 12 from Wales and Slovakia?

With Staunton in charge? I'm afraid Cyprus is about our level if he stays. :mad:

I never said we will, but it's the level we need to be at to give us a chance at qualification next time around.

eirebhoy

I didn't notice Spain were so far down when I was doing to spreadsheet. :eek:

BaZmO*

Raskolnikov wrote:

So being realistic we need the following string of results to put us into the third pot for qualification

Czech Rep @ Away: Lose

LOL. When does a team ever need a loss to achieve their objective?

Raskolnikov

BaZmO* wrote:

LOL. When does a team ever need a loss to achieve their objective?

Umm, it's just the sort of sequence of results that we need to get into the third pot. Obviously we don't need a loss, it's an allowance I'm making :rolleyes:

BaZmO*

Raskolnikov wrote:

Umm, it's just the sort of sequence of results that we need to get into the third pot. Obviously we don't need a loss, it's an allowance I'm making :rolleyes:

Oooh! touchy!!

eirebhoy

OP - We need 22/23 points to get into Pot 3. So we have 7 more games to get 15/16 points. Can't see it.