How do you think FF are doing?

ISAW

miju wrote:

in relation to property it actually is tanking http://daftwatch.atspace.com/ + http://irishpropertywatch.5gbfree.com/report_myhome_2_110307.html = BIG PROBLEM

the first of these links daft shows a series of graphs which indicate a rise in the number of houses offered for sale.

this does not mean that property is tanking or in a crash!

It indicates more houses are being offered that is all.

Let us take the "big problem" you indicate and analyse it in relation to your daft graphs.
Yes it may indicate that the supply is increasing and demand falling and you conclude therefore that price is heading for a crash.

But

1. The Supply problem
the government has been trying to increase supply for the last tenm tyears. That is a good thing. But the global issue you raise here ignores the minutae on prioce such as WHERE the property is being built. supply probably wont meet demand for several years. and when it does that is GREAT since the people who want houses can get them. The point is really will the right type of housing be built in the right places e.g. does every family (excluding the unmoving non decentralisable single civil servants who dont already own property in Dublin) want an apartment in Dublin?

Which bring me neatly to

2. The Demand Problem

Years ago what they now call "investors" were called "speculators"
these were the type of people who attacked the Pound when we had the punt. they cares nothing about ireland only about their funds. you know the type? the pensions fund manager who says he is helping out all the poor pensioners from the "semi state job for life until pension" sector. He was buy ing punts and dumping them and Iish joe soap was paying 15 per cent on a mortgage because of it.

About six or seven years ago, his type bought a few (say five I know people with more) apartments for 80k a go (say 100k in Euro). Now each of them are worth 300k. His half million investment is now apparently 1.5 million. You want me to feel sorry if people only offer 500k for the five apartments? thats a drop in value of 66 per cent which is NOT going to happen but if it did you think I should be sorry for him when he got 30 years worth of rent for a single apartment over that time? I should feel sorry because some graph on you page shows rental properties decline by 20 per cent over the last six months when over christmas they fall by twice that for seasonal reasons?

your second site shows i guess a drop of a few per cent (not SIXTY) over the period for over 400 houses. These are the same people who listed underprice for years and made estimates a joke! Great! I love to see prices fall. My house has gone up by over a hundred percent in five years. Im not greedy. i just want to live somewhere. But I want other families to as well.


And the family who bught for 100k are still living in their apartment because they bought a "home" not an investment so they dont care about price!

indeed they are however , the jobs being created are low value services jobs which cannot be compared to high value research jobs. ireland is moving down the skills / economy chain NOT up it as fianna failure like to freely state

you are wrong about this! THe state has upped investment in research and higher education! Business isnt doing as much but is also increasing investment in it. Look it up GERD BERD and HERD they are called. You will get them from Forfas.

Look at patents registered, students, and at other indicators. It isnt state invested tax money created admin jobs for life we need. And someone does need to do the service jobs.

ISAW

ronoc wrote:

As another poster said regardless of their achievments I think a change of government would be good for the country.

fair enough thats your opinion if ou dont care about the economy. But do you really think government is like changing a suit or a fashion accessory? that you should vote based on just having change for the sake of change? Isnt a bit like saying Everton should win the league because blue is a nicer colour then red and Liverpool keep winning? surely the better team should win?

I'm also sick of Bertie babbling like a scolded child everytime he gets called out on failings and seemingly getting away with it.

So you think it is all about leaders of parties and not policy or teams? Maybe judge it on who has the nicest tie? but then tony independent would never get in would he?

Inflation is a major issue and is really hurting Irelands competitivness.

So now you DO care about finance and running an economy and it isn't about change for the sake of it? Make up your mind please. change for the sake of it or for who you thingk can do a better job?

ballooba

ISAW wrote:

you are wrong about this! THe state has upped investment in research and higher education! Business isnt doing as much but is also increasing investment in it. Look it up GERD BERD and HERD they are called. You will get them from Forfas.

Look at patents registered, students, and at other indicators. It isnt state invested tax money created admin jobs for life we need. And someone does need to do the service jobs.

I'll direct you over to the thread in the main politics forum there where there is a lively discussion brewing on this very issue. Prepare to be ripped apart by the academics there. Toodles.

ISAW

ballooba wrote:

I'll direct you over to the thread in the main politics forum there where there is a lively discussion brewing on this very issue. Prepare to be ripped apart by the academics there. Toodles.

thanks for that. I dont suppose you will be joining that debate will you? if not then please withdraw your assertion and stop parroting other peoples arguments if you are not prepared to debate them.

Oh and thanks for the graphs as weel. But dont think that supplying a picture proves anything.

PoolDude

I think some of the more recent budgets have also been progressive for the economy. There has been a focus on the knowledge economy and $2bn allocated to R&D aswell as further engagement thru EI and the IDA on Foreign Direct investment.

These strategies are effectively protecting the economy right now with the latest announcement of 180 high skilled jobs for Wexford announced yesterday. We will loose low end manufacturing jobs but I think some credit has to be given to the foresight that has been put into sustaining our economy. It hasn't been near perfect but I do think much of it is unnoticed.

I would also give a lot of credit to Harney while in Enterprise along with MCreevy/Cowen in Finance. They have made decisions and implemented changes that are not necessarily immediate vote winners but build a stronger economic futher and a legacy that may only be realised after their time.

I do not relate to much of what McDowell says but his imagery can be good and to this day I cannot but remember his Laurel and Hardy comment in relation to Kenny & Rabitte - they fit the image well!

ISAW

PoolDude wrote:

I think some of the more recent budgets have also been progressive for the economy. There has been a focus on the knowledge economy and $2bn allocated to R&D aswell as further engagement thru EI and the IDA on Foreign Direct investment.

Just some figures off the top of my head the LAST government (the one before the current one i.e. 1997-2003 or thereabouts) put about 3 billion into RDTI. The Rainbow also put some money in. The current one put more in. you can add in EU framework programmes and Business investment. the target is about 3 per cent of GDP. Ireland is way way under that but that is about twice what your figure is per annum! again handwaving but i can get the figures if you really want them.

These startegies are effectively protecting the economy right now with the latest announcement of 180 high skilled jobs for Wexford announced yesterday. We will loose low end manufacturing jobs but I think some credit has to be given to the foresight that has been but into sustaining our economy. It hasn't been near perfect but I do think much of it is unnoticed.

it isnt a "patch up" strategy. it is long term and is looking at 2015-2020. this isnt a "stay in government2 strategy! ANY government will have to take it on if only due to the commitment levels.

I probably lean towards FF but would also give a lot of credit to Harney while in Enterprise along MCreevy/Cowen in Finance.

yes but that is a DIFFERENT issue. Part of that was cutting the public sector pay bill. but THIS issue is about investment in the knowledge base.

They have made decisions and implemented changes that are not necessarily immediate vote winners but build a stronger economic futher and a legacy that may only be realised after their time.

Yes. As did alan dukes. And look what happened to him! FG dumped him as leader and he lost his seat.

I do not relate to much of what McDowell says

carefull. there is a Labour Mc Dowell who is a finance spokesman.

but his imagery can be good and to this day I cannot but remember his Laurel and Hardy comment in relation to Kenny & Rabitte - the fit the image well!

But do you want them to get us into another fine mess?

PoolDude

No

ballooba

ISAW wrote:

thanks for that. I dont suppose you will be joining that debate will you? if not then please withdraw your assertion and stop parroting other peoples arguments if you are not prepared to debate them.

As a postgard student I have am reasonably well informed on the '4th level' (whatever that is) situation. My lecturers actually speak to us quite a lot about it. There is however no need for me to involve myself in the debate in that thread. It's interesting to a point but those guys write research papers for living though. There's a lot of reading.

ISAW wrote:

Oh and thanks for the graphs as weel. But dont think that supplying a picture proves anything.

I didn't post any graphs or pictures?!?!?

ballooba

PoolDude wrote:

These strategies are effectively protecting the economy right now with the latest announcement of 180 high skilled jobs for Wexford announced yesterday.

That's a joke right? Calling Equifax high skilled jobs? It's probably one rung above data entry.

PoolDude wrote:

I would also give a lot of credit to Harney while in Enterprise along with MCreevy/Cowen in Finance. They have made decisions and implemented changes that are not necessarily immediate vote winners but build a stronger economic futher and a legacy that may only be realised after their time.

About the only three ministers in the last 10 years that I would have any time for.

Capt'n Midnight

Glenbhoy wrote:

Class sizes, yeah, the govt have done well, in 10yrs they've managed to reduce teacher/pupil ratio's by one, they made a promise last time to reduce this to 20.1 (now they tell us, that was merely a noble aspiration), however my wife teaches 34 children (with a classroom assistant for 30 mins per day), my mother also teaches, but in the north, where the school has a 19.1 ratio and full time class room assistants for every teacher.

Just back from Italy, saw a small village school there. Three classes - one had 13 pupils that day, another had 10 - don't know about the third class. Maybe some kids were out, or maybe there were only 34 kids in the whole school. There was a special needs teacher too, in all I saw 6 teachers (not including the third class) (school was for 11-14 years old )

School children can't vote.

Any reports I've seen have all said the same thing, that your money goes further in education at primary than secondary than university. If you want to invest in the country, don't build extra roads to cater for people who aren't licensed to use the, instead fund primary schools and perhaps school buses.

A simple question for the Govt, if education is an issue at all, how many new schools have they built ?
Not including ones built by the partents/religious.

Capt'n Midnight

skearon wrote:

Put Ireland well on target to meet her international responsibilities for cutting greenhouse gas emissions as established by the Kyoto Treaty.

http://www.epa.ie/NewsCentre/PressReleases/MainBody,12148,en.html

EPA reports increase in Ireland’s Greenhouse Gases - Transport and Energy up - Agriculture down - Thu, 15 Feb 2007 16:56:00 GMT
...
The rise of transport emissions was by far the largest in any sector in 2005 and reflected a 160 per cent increase on 1990 figures. Transport emissions made up 19 per cent of the 2005 total, most of which were generated by road transport (96%). The increase reflects increasing vehicle numbers, a trend towards purchasing larger vehicles, an increased reliance on private cars and increasing road freight transport.
...
Figures released today by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) show that, while Ireland’s Kyoto target in the period 2008-2012 is to limit emissions to 13 per cent above the base line estimate, Ireland’s emissions in 2005 were 25.4 per cent above the base line estimate.
...
Dr Kelly concluded, “In the post-Kyoto period emissions reductions in the order of 15 to 30 per cent on 1990 emissions are being proposed to avoid irreversible and damaging climate change.

Simple things the Govt could do

Reduction of transport by providing
- Broadband to allow people to telecommute
- removal of people not having valid licenses to drive
- promotion of diesel over petrol
- providing school buses
- banning suv's or other vehicles with poor rear visability within 100m of schools during during rush hours
- tax breaks for cyclists, similar to milage given to motorists

Reduction of heating for Home AND Industry
- tax breaks for insulation - especially for businesses
- lower CGT on buildings with higher energy standards
- making condensing gas boilers compulsary ( just like in England and Wales )


How much would the carbon credits cost otherwise ?
How many primary schools is that ?

ballooba

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

Just back from Italy, saw a small village school there. Three classes - one had 13 pupils that day, another had 10 - don't know about the third class. Maybe some kids were out, or maybe there were only 34 kids in the whole school. There was a special needs teacher too, in all I saw 6 teachers (not including the third class) (school was for 11-14 years old )

TBH that teacher : pupil ratio sounds a bit silly. The Italians are a high tax, high public service country. I visited a sparsely populated region in northern italy last year for skiing. They had their own regular local bus service with 60 seater coaches. The coaches were seldom anywhere approaching half full.

The government had also built a new hotel for a hotelier to move them from a really remote location because it was cheaper than building a road to them. I don't think business owners would get away with that here.

Six pupils per teachers is not necessary.

Corporate tax in Italy is 37.25% btw.

Glenbhoy

ballooba wrote:

They had their own regular local bus service with 60 seater coaches. The coaches were seldom anywhere approaching half full.

Corporate tax in Italy is 37.25% btw.

But that's what public service is all about, surely that's a good thing?
Italy can afford to keep corp tax high, because, unlike ireland, companies have to have a presence there, there's a market of 60m people in the middle of europe, not a little island on the periphary of europe with 4m people.

ballooba

Glenbhoy wrote:

But that's what public service is all about, surely that's a good thing?
Italy can afford to keep corp tax high, because, unlike ireland, companies have to have a presence there, there's a market of 60m people in the middle of europe, not a little island on the periphary of europe with 4m people.

It's a complete waste of money. I would have a very bitter taste in my mouth if my hard earned money and the value that I work hard to create for a business were being wasted like that. Not to mention the environmental impact of having gas guzzlers like that ferrying a handful of OAPs around the Alps.

K-9

[QUOTE=Capt'n
Simple things the Govt could do

Reduction of transport by providing
- Broadband to allow people to telecommute
- removal of people not having valid licenses to drive
- promotion of diesel over petrol
- providing school buses
- banning suv's or other vehicles with poor rear visability within 100m of schools during during rush hours
- tax breaks for cyclists, similar to milage given to motorists

Reduction of heating for Home AND Industry
- tax breaks for insulation - especially for businesses
- lower CGT on buildings with higher energy standards
- making condensing gas boilers compulsary ( just like in England and Wales )


How much would the carbon credits cost otherwise ?
How many primary schools is that ?[/QUOTE]


Some good ideas there. The Govt. does have plans to take provisional drivers of the road, which I'm sure all parties will agree with and implement, after the election. None of them will mention it coming up to an election though.:)

There are arguments over how much greener diesel is than petrol. Love the idea about the SUV's, especially the looks on the faces of the ones who will vote Green in the election and then moan that they can't park their SUV at the school

Corporation tax isn't a major tax taker in this country though receipts have increased in line with other taxes.

Which brings me to my point, is any party going to announce that they are going to increase all taxes, including CT, PAYE/PRSI etc., so that we get new schools, lower pupil/teacher ratio and new hospitals? That is, that this money will specifically go on capital projects and not pay increases.

The PD's, Lab and FG are all giving us tax cuts and majically better services too, when we should know from experience this can't happen even in economically favorable times.

These parties seem to be following the US system rather than the European system which, I can accept for the PD's, but surprised at for FG and Lab. Looks like a recipe for things staying the same, if not worse, for our health and education systems.

Glenbhoy

ballooba wrote:

It's a complete waste of money. I would have a very bitter taste in my mouth if my hard earned money and the value that I work hard to create for a business were being wasted like that. Not to mention the environmental impact of having gas guzzlers like that ferrying a handful of OAPs around the Alps.

So your problem with it is not that the service is being provided (which is a good thing imo), but that it is being provided in an inefficient manner? (which is fair enough).

ballooba

Seanies32 wrote:

The PD's, Lab and FG are all giving us tax cuts and majically better services too, when we should know from experience this can't happen even in economically favorable times.

If we cut out the criminal waste of taxpayer's money then we it might go some way towards paying for them. Of course no party is really going to take on the unions.

The PDs claim to be doing so, but don't really have any pull. They are a junior partner of a much much larger left-wing party. Fine Gael should take on the unions, I hope they do. The senior partner in that government would be right of centre and the two junior partners (Lab and Green) would be left of centre.

Glenbhoy

Seanies32 wrote:

Which brings me to my point, is any party going to announce that they are going to increase all taxes, including CT, PAYE/PRSI etc., so that we get new schools, lower pupil/teacher ratio and new hospitals? That is, that this money will specifically go on capital projects and not pay increases.

Evidently not, given that they are all announcing the tax cuts they're planning on, tbh, it may not be the best time to be engaging in large scale capital projects just now - better to leave it a year or two, until construction has calmed down again, then it may be useful to engage in large capital projects (nothing like a bit of basic keynesianism) to keep employment stable.
The other thing about reducing taxes is imo, it's a pointless exercise - yeah, we've more money in our pocket, but since everyone else does too, it's of no value to us - it goes back to the age old problem of too much money in the economy chasing limited goods (particularly housing etc, but this impacts on most goods and services), this inevitably leads to inflation, so, whilst we may think we're better off, in real terms it makes feck all difference. I mean, the last budget was pretty generous, but how many of you feel the benefits of being approx €100 a month better off?

ballooba

The cuts announced yesterday represent about 6 euro extra per week for a person on the average industrial wage of €35,000.

K-9

FF are taking on the ESB at the minute and I don't think they will back down because it will be to their advantage electorally.

Same with Harney with the consultants, nurses etc. Alot of the health systems are with the HSE but recently I think we have being getting a fairer picture of the whole system. The consultants and now the nurses, especially over the Cork maternity hospital have also shown that they are part of the problem.

Gerry Robinson showed what can be done with the NHS with no money on his TV programme he did. Just cutting down on waste of taxpayers money but extra funds will also be needed to if we are going to be serious about improving health and education.

Actually, with the construction boom appearing to end/slowdown, (30% less house starts could be keynesianism at work IMO) , maybe it could be the time to announce new capital projects.There would probably be a lead time of 1/2 years before they would start anyway.

The parties fascination with tax cuts is outdated at this stage. Countries with decent health systems have a higher tax take than us. Some of the parties are going to have to grasp that soon.

ballooba

FF are not and historically have not taken on the ESB. I worked on a project there 3 years ago that was to prepare them for a split between supply and networks. This was supposed to happen in Jan 2004. There has been no sign of it. EirGrid is already supposed to be independent of ESB, but they aren't. EirGrid recently moved premises to a new one paid for by ESB.

We have supposedly had competition in the electricity market here for several years. This is obviously not the case. The government has been protecting the ESB monopoly. Airtricity's publicly aired concerns have further highlighted this.

K-9

Well maybe, perhaps belatedly, they are taking on the ESB and the vested interests in the health system.

The HSE recently have been facing up to the consultants and unions and actually pointing out to the public some of the crazy systems that are there.

ISAW

ballooba wrote:

As a postgard student I have am reasonably well informed on the '4th level' (whatever that is) situation. My lecturers actually speak to us quite a lot about it. There is however no need for me to involve myself in the debate in that thread.

Good for you for being so informed. But if you are claiming you are right and I am wrong then either

1. Show some supporting evidence
or
2. Withdraw the calim that I am wrong.

now you dios say in ealtion to this issue

Prepare to be ripped apart by the academics there. [i.e. on this issue of knowledge economy in the main forum] Toodles.

So either you think I am gong to be ripped apart because I am wrong or because I might be right but you won't get involved with academics because even though you know I am right they tear people apart without any regard to who is right because they will egotistically insist they are!

So am I wrong or do you just hold academics in contempt?

Actually this is a false dichotomy. Both cases could be true!

I didn't post any graphs or pictures?!?!?

Sorry
My mistake/ miscredit.
MIJU

Handy graphs too! even if I say so myself.

ballooba

ISAW wrote:

So am I wrong or do you just hold academics in contempt?

I believe you are wrong. I have read some of the comments on the other thread. Like your posts however they are very long winded. Hence why I won't be getting into a debate with you.

I think the posters in the other thread are doing a perfectly adequate job of debunking your claims. I don't have a problem with academics, but I am concious that they write research papers for a living. I think the last thread on this topic ran into several hundred posts.

There is another thread, so there is no need for you to hijack this one.

ISAW

ballooba wrote:

FF are not and historically have not taken on the ESB.

Bertie is an EX trade union boss. Hios first job when he became minister was to take on the ESB AND the ESB unions! Power cuts were even happening. HE got it sorted!

I worked on a project there 3 years ago that was to prepare them for a split between supply and networks.

Teh ESB Board were discussing splitting powergen and distribution (there were three? other units but these are the big two) over seven years ago. around the time telecom Eireann was launched as a PLC.

This was supposed to happen in Jan 2004. There has been no sign of it. EirGrid is already supposed to be independent of ESB, but they aren't. EirGrid recently moved premises to a new one paid for by ESB.

We have supposedly had competition in the electricity market here for several years. This is obviously not the case. The government has been protecting the ESB monopoly. Airtricity's publicly aired concerns have further highlighted this.

Yeah I hear you. In my opinion it is ludricous for unions to be demand the whole thing stay together. It is against EU competition rules. You know? The ones their comrades in Europe drew up?

Workers of the world untie! seems to be the Irish Unions' slogan.

ballooba

ISAW wrote:

Teh ESB Board were discussing splitting powergen and distribution (there were three? other units but these are the big two) over seven years ago. around the time telecom Eireann was launched as a PLC.

They claim that it has happened. It hasn't.
http://www.esb.ie/main/about_esb/ataglance1.jsp

ISAW

ballooba wrote:

I believe you are wrong.

your poeronal opinion again without ANY support. Gainsaying isnt debate you know.

I have read some of the comments on the other thread. Like your posts however they are very long winded. Hence why I won't be getting into a debate with you.

You wont debate me because it takes to much time and effort? Well thats a new one on me. I wonder what you do debate. what is it that can be debated and resolved in a short paragraph I wonder? Is that debate at all?

I think the posters in the other thread are doing a perfectly adequate job of debunking your claims.

Lets get some thinks straight.

1. What you THINK is your own business. when you claim it as FACT I have a problem with that and suggest you supply some supporting EVIDENCE and not more opinion about what you think others are doing.

2. YOU referred me to that other thread which means
I didnt begin it so therefore someone ELSE was making the claims. If I maDE ANY CLAIMS they were counter claims i.e. supporting counter example. But it is not for anybody to prove a negative. It is for THOSE who make the claims to support them.

So believe me wrong if you wish but don't suppose anyone else has to accept you are correct if you don't supply ANY support for your belief.

Was that long winded enough for you?
"Put up or shut up" is the shorter version.

I don't have a problem with academics, but I am concious that they write research papers for a living. I think the last thread on this topic ran into several hundred posts.

I sympathise with this but it still points to the issue of you hinting at any discussion of an issue should be resolved in a few posts. I submit "The future of the Irish economy" isnt such a simple issue and demands some discussion. Indeed such a discussion probably will never end!

There is another thread, so there is no need for you to hijack this one.

Yes I agree. And I am not "hijacking " this thread into just discussing economics of Irish science.

My problem isn't about discussing the economics of science as a 2007 election issue here. It is about YOU (in spite of refusing to debate it there) claiming you are right on the issue here and that I am wrong!

If you can't support your claim then just simply withdraw it and don't try to infer I am wrong because academics are debating me on the issue. As I have pointed out there argument for authority is not argument at all.

ISAW

ballooba wrote:

They claim that it has happened. It hasn't.
http://www.esb.ie/main/about_esb/ataglance1.jsp

thanks for that link.

I assume it is current. I heard a union guy on the radio last week saying something like "over our dead bodies" so i assumed it hasent fully happened yet.

Incidentally, the "distribution" I referred to seems to be called "networks" but in relation to the link you supplied under networksit states

the implementation of this comprehensive business separation programme is now in progress

i.e. that it hasn't fully happened yet.

I dont know what you are getting at with your above comment. Are you supplying the link to show it hasent happened (which is correct) or to show to claim that they (who the unions or the ESB?) claim it has happened (which is incorrect since the page you supply does NOT make that claim).

I don't know the actual specific legislation
http://www.cer.ie/ are the regulators referred as brokering the 2003 deal though.

ballooba

I've expressed an opinion. As I am perfectly entitled to do. I did not pass it off as fact. As has been pointed out on the other thread you are commenting on something of which you have no direct experience or knowledge.

Yes, I do believe that points can be made without spewing out reams of text. I sigh every time I see such posts. It impedes the flow of debate.

The people posting on the other thread are far more qualified than I am to comment on research in Ireland. Any evidence I have is anecdotal.

I did go looking for research on a particular topic recently and found that UCD have secured funding for research on a topic that UC Davis has already taken past the conceptual stage and commercialised. Needless to say, I won't be bothering the UCD researchers.

As I said, there is another thread. I won't be getting involved though. I have pointed out where I think the future of our economy lies. i.e. through growing indigenous exporters. I have also pointed out the differences between espoused policy and policy in practice on that issue.

ballooba

ISAW wrote:

I dont know what you are getting at with your above comment. Are you supplying the link to show it hasent happened (which is correct) or to show to claim that they (who the unions or the ESB?) claim it has happened (which is incorrect since the page you supply does NOT make that claim).

here it is:

ESB wrote:

ESB is a vertically integrated utility and it includes a number of divisions, which are ringfenced and operate independently in the electricity market. ESB Group employs approximately 9,600 people. It is the leading Irish company in the energy utility sector.

This is not a business decision. It is a regulatory requirement. The above statement is not true. The units are effectively as integrated as they ever where.