Model thread Feb/ early march-Is winter peeping back?

Thought I'd start a new thread in the absence of a relevant current one.

Snowbie -you can sticky this if you like.

Anyhow-Nice 12z GFS today albeit just the one run that has escaped the mild cage for now.

It shows a huge march of cold air, very cold air in its FI section marching down from the urals.

FI (fantasy island of course but hey!)

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn24017.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Now that would be ideal.

I'd imagine the temps would be less than that shown.

Not too late either given the cold pool that could potentially tap into.

Perhaps a trend may develop or the 18z will dash things back to a mild solution.
One to watch of course and also a gawk at the mighty ECM over the course of the next week would be good.

ciao for now

Beasterly Tristrame

Trogdor

Haven't really looked at the charts since that last disappointment:(:wink:. Had a quick look at the ensembles yesterday and didn't see anything outstanding but there does seem to be some support for this now even if it is minimal
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png
Maybe our annual late Feb/early March cold snap/spell:D

Hal1

Those GFS charts show a -10 over Eíre is that the DP? and its nice to see new threads being started on cold snaps pushing south of GL even if our hopes of some wintery stuffs have faded...;)

Snowbie

Thread Stuck,Been AFK due to flu symptons from my excursions to the mountains and confined to my quarters,next time ill stay in the jeep and stay warm:o

Our last chance at winter,maybe but be nice to go out with a beasterly.
Cold air pooling around there now for some time and has to break east eventually.Damn time frame against us +384 in FI

Snowbie

Hal1 wrote:

Those GFS charts show a -10 over Eíre is that the DP? and its nice to see new threads being started on cold snaps pushing south of GL even if our hopes of some wintery stuffs have faded...;)

There -10c 850mb temps=pretty low temps at sea level.

ninebeanrows

Hahaha i wouldnt worry about the temps there! I'd worry about the fact that it has a 0.00001% chance of happening:D

arctictree

Big change in the GFS this morning.

Strong easterly setting in from Tue/Wed - is that reliable timeframe?

Pity - I'm off to Florida on Saturday!!

A

Hard to say if thats reliable given that for whatever reason the UKMO can't even decide if the front that we have today is going to stall in England or not.

Ensembles are looking interesting-more support for cold.

We might get a 2 or 3 day wonder out of this yet with snow on high ground inland at night :rolleyes:

Really and truly, you need a sustained 5 day long advection of cold siberian origin air from the near continent to here to be in business properly and theres no sign of that yet.

Last time that happened on a scale to reach and sustain itself in Ireland was february '91 or january '87.

Incidently I saw photographs of Arklow in january 1987 that were amazing.
The avoca river at the quays was frozen with snow lying on it except at the very centre where the water was flowing with ice floating down it.
The sea was also frozen.
I'll try and get copies of those scanned.

Weathercheck what sort of 850 temps would you need today for that? -15? -20? I'll bet the snow got to portmarnock then,in fact I know it did big time.

darkman2

Looking very interesting atm. Lets hope its the real thing this time;)

ninebeanrows

Well in 1987 850's got down to around -18c ... yes -18c:eek:

Its the last throw of the dice for winter 06/07 but boy oh boy it could well be the throw of all throws:D

ninebeanrows

The devious Arctic High looks almost certain now to have a big influence on the weather in Northwest Europe from next pushing s pool of intense frigid cold into Scandanavia..

We have not seen the Artctic high creep into Europe since 2001 so forecasting what will happen is very difficult..

But there is scope for an extremely cold blast from the past... Lets watch the models over the next few days and soak up what they have to offer.. Winters last hurrah.. Will it just be phantom GFS runs or will dreams turn into reality??

Don't know what to make of that 12z to be honest.
Useless for the UK snow wise as pressure is too high-maybe a few light flurries in the East.
Very cold though at night with the day being warmer as it will be sunny.
I don't think enough cold air will make it to Ireland to interact with the atlantic air.
You'd need persistance and as we've learned in recent years ,cold making an appearance from the East for 48hrs is very quickly sent packing by the mighty atlantic.

Useless useless useless

More runs to come though so lets see.

That HP needs to be over Northern Noway,not southern Norway.

nacho libre

I don't think any snowfall is going to happen from the East out of this. We would need a week or two of Siberian winds coming in to Ireland as a result of an intense area of high pressure situated in Norway.

Our best chance of nationwide snow at this time of year is a front coming down from the north, followed by a series of trough lines, or better still a polar low coming down from Greenland. Sadly, It has been sometime since our last Polar low,though.

ninebeanrows

I thought winter was over 1 hour ago.. Then i watched the 12z GFS unveil before my very eyes..:eek:






NO COMMENT

ninebeanrows

Maxima for Today 1 week:eek:

I'll comment...
They're taking the píss

Is NW down yet ?

ninebeanrows

Hell i know there taking the piass:D

Still some good eye candy and roller coaster riding!

No NW is grand... UKM is terrible

The difference between GFS OP and UK cannot be described.. You have to look at the 2 of them:eek:

ninebeanrows

it has some support:rolleyes:

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-120.png

HAHAHA that charts even funnier than the GFS!!

pressures a tad too high in that Gem WC


(for precipitation)

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

pressures a tad too high in that Gem WC


(for precipitation)

:eek:

I wouldnt say no:D

ninebeanrows

Some steps back from an knockout from the Atlantic this evening..

Momentum is on the Easterlies side but probability is on the Atlantics side.

Its about 70/30 at this stage but steadily getting better with the ECM this evening giving some confidence on the GFS

Snowbie

Now thats rare,-16c 850mb temps close to the east on the 12z and -20c over SE UK.
Metcheck are forecasting blizzards for Dublin next thursday.This will be soon doomed again.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

Now thats rare,-16c 850mb temps close to the east on the 12z and -20c over SE UK.
Metcheck are forecasting blizzards for Dublin next thursday.This will be soon doomed again.

The progged 850s translate in maximum temps of -4 - -2 onland and sub zero on the Irish sea. Im not going to get into it until nearer the time but the 80's memories are under threat. ECM is a beauty tonight aswell.

Gonzo

metcheck have around 20cm of snow on for dublin next thursday.

It's about as likely Gonzo as 40c in Ashbourne in July Gonzo.

Supercell

Tristrame wrote:

It's about as likely Gonzo as 40c in Ashbourne in July Gonzo.

Lollers!

I've got my snow dosage (some still left in places where they ploughed it to the edge of the road) for the winter..all else is a bonus:)

Would you consider this a bonus?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1682.png

Or this?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1742.png :eek:

Or this?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png :eek: :eek:

Pressures too high on this run.

Snow flurries due to the fierceness of the cold but only a dusting and only on the East coast.

darkman2

Tristame diid you not notice the front that crosses into the North Sea and then comes back bringing very heavy snowfall?:D How about these for maxes in 7 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.png

No I was just looking at the 850's

If a front headed west under those conditions,do you know what it would mean? yup lots of sneachta??!!
In actual fact thats what happened in january 87.
The snow storm went so far SW that it dropped a few inches in Valentia

darkman2

Tristrame wrote:

No I was just looking at the 850's

If a front headed west under those conditions,do you know what it would mean? yup lots of sneachta??!!
In actual fact thats what happened in january 87.
The snow storm went so far SW that it dropped a few inches in Valentia

Im refusing to call this yet though cause alot can go wrong as we all know too well even though the evolution is 5 days out. If its there Sunday evening then forget about the 80s:D

Supercell

I expect further snowfalls here, but wouldnt be suprised if it was close but no cigar for sea level.
10 years from now, it will be the people that live in the higher 350 metre + regions that can expect snow..i'd like to be one of them!