Model thread Feb/ early march-Is winter peeping back?

To be frank.

These cold runs have a nice cold source but don't send it here long enough.
3 days is not enough.
The cold fetch in tonights 18z is like a 6 lane motorway straight to the Urals,but once it's built, the models just want to collapse it again.

If you had that fetch for a week, you'd know all about it!

Won't happen though.

All eyes to countryfile on sunday to see if they put in a cold front advancing west from the continent?
Ditto for the farming one-they'll have to say something on that( eg we are uncertain but theres a pssibility of ... etc) if the ECM is still showing this type of scenario by then.

It's not often you see -14 850's over wexford !

See attached image

Do you think Rosslare would be plus 7c under those conditions or under some kind of a blizzard with maybe some sea ice?

Danno

-13c at 850hpa...

nope, needs to be sub -15, sorry, move along, nothing gonna happen here...

Danno

The GFS is out on its own on this. The GFS whittles the High westwards (in FI) after a low topples over it - could be good if this high crashes into an advancing atlantic front???

BUT! The UKMO is not convincing me [YET]

PS: www.theweatheroutlook.com is down! God bless the poor server there - and we thought boardsie was bad! :P

Snowbie

Blood pressure tablets out again for some.

Unfortunately its 5-6 days away.Will be a chilly affair if came off but like Tristrame said not a long enough time for cold to really penetrate to a severe level.80s style.

Good thing though its showing upgrade after upgrade.Last dance i would imagine for sneachta

Danno

NW is buzzing! Even Darkman is on there trying to spread some Irish calm about!

ninebeanrows

Downgrades this morning as expected.. ECM and GFS were too good to be true last night..

Although this whole fiasco aint nearly over yet.. The models are proving themselves utterly useless

I've made my thoughts clear on NW regarding this WC.

I think its for the bin.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36596&st=102&gopid=928799&#

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

I've made my thoughts clear on NW regarding this WC.

I think its for the bin.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36596&st=102&gopid=928799&#

Yea but you cant turn away 14 Ensembles members going for a similar scenario.. and the UKM and the ECM not even being immense

Were jumping on a GEM which is a poor model:rolleyes:

I would rate our chances of an Easterly at around 15%

Tonights 12z's are going to be vital.. but i already feel this has been taken too far away from us already

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Yea but you cant turn away 14 Ensembles members going for a similar scenario..

I can if each member is a variation of some initial deliberately skewed data.Lets see the 12 and 18z first.

and the UKM and the ECM not even being immense

They haven't even made their minds up!
Last nights UKMO faxes were even discounting their own models output to an extent.

Were jumping on a GEM which is a poor model:rolleyes:

No we're not,that model is just staying consistant-It doesn't mean it's righ-usually its kinda wrong this far out.

I would rate our chances of an Easterly at around 15%

60% chance for me and if you include a cold southeasterly - 70%

Tonights 12z's are going to be vital.. but i already feel this has been taken too far away from us already

Ah FFS,thats silly and you know it.
That said,lets not jinx this.
Winter may well be over...

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

I can if each member is a variation of some initial deliberately skewed data.Lets see the 12 and 18z first.They haven't even made their minds up!
Last nights UKMO faxes were even discounting their own models output to an extent.
No we're not,that model is just staying consistant-It doesn't mean it's righ-usually its kinda wrong this far out.
60% chance for me and if you include a cold southeasterly - 70%
Ah FFS,thats silly and you know it.
That said,lets not jinx this.
Winter may well be over...

:eek: :eek:

Tristrame what are you doing:eek: :eek:

Dear god if your going for it! Well it might just have a chance of happening..

But being totally honest i don't think so

Gonzo

yesterday metcheck were giving Dublin -3 and snow for Dublin next Friday and today there giving 12C and rain for next friday, bit of a difference:)

Supercell

Lollers, never thought I'd see the day, WC calling Tristrame (rightly in this case ) a cold ramper!!

Snowbie

Tristrame wrote:

I've made my thoughts clear on NW regarding this WC.

I think its for the bin.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36596&st=102&gopid=928799&#

60% chance for me and if you include a cold southeasterly - 70%

I wonder could you shed some light on this for me.What is your opinion on the up and coming cold spell?.
I think your in a col atm.:)

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote:

yesterday metcheck were giving Dublin -3 and snow for Dublin next Friday and today there giving 12C and rain for next friday, bit of a difference:)

Yea this is split 60:40 according to the ECM Ensembles.. But GFS progression towards the 60% side is worrying..

But ECM show a direct split between 40% going for an easterly and 60% going for mild weather.

Tonights 12z runs will be the most anticipated of all "winter"..

It really is make or break time as crucial developments start occuring at T+48hrs..

I wouldn't say I'm a cold ramper (today)
I haven't a clue what is going to happen this day week just like the rest of ye.
I'm only giving my interpretation of these NWP's and at the moment I think that Scandi high has as much chance if not more chance of developing in the right place as it did last night.
I'm holding that view untill I see more output and untill T-72 or there abouts-thats how dodgy I think these models are with the current set up.

But to satisfy ye,that 60% confidence would drop to 55% if this evenings output is a mild mess and to 30% like the rest of ye if sundays output is similar.

I wouldn't go down to zero though as that would be illogical.

Also that short wave / shallow depression looked fishy to me because it looks like it was tailor made to show the effect it might have going that route on a potential Easterly.
GFS is notoriously (in my time looking at it) dodgy tracking these features 7 days out never mind handling an easterly properly.
Come to think of it,ECM doesn't throw up too many phantom Easterlies either.

I've still got reasonable confidence that we might see a cold Easterly or south easterly but no doubt putting that down here usually jinxes it

nacho libre

Tristrame wrote:

No I was just looking at the 850's

If a front headed west under those conditions,do you know what it would mean? yup lots of sneachta??!!

We would need a sustained period of winds blowing in from Siberia for that to happen. It's not going to happen over the space of two days.
The most likely chance of country wide snow occuring in late February is from the North West not from the East. We rarely get widespread snow from the East in this country. Cursed Atlantic.

Well that 12z was another pile of cack!
From artic high,to scandy fat high to bartlet sinker...

Absolutely no new information gleaned from that run.
I'll call this on Tuesday.
Currently confidence is above 50% with moi.

ninebeanrows

Right thats it

GEM has backtracked

UKM has stuck to its guns

GFS is crap

ECM isnt out yet

But im finished.. Cya in a couple of days.. This just isn't happening:(

ALL HAIL THE MIGHTY ECM*

* seriously though,this is not to be called untill tuesday.
I wouldnt like to be scripting country file or tomorrows lunchtime RTE.
If they committ, theres a good chance they will be wrong.

And they're pretty confident now,that all that cold air will zip up the mid north sea.
I wouldnt like to quantify how tiny the chances are now that, that will change in the coming week.
Basically by now as the more model/weather savvy of you will have concluded,the dye has been cast for the coming week in that the parameters for guessing its outcome at least away from Eastern Scotland are certified mostly.

You have to laugh though at nature and how it's sending the cold back to where it came from:D

ninebeanrows

It still hurts.. Even though i knew it was going to happen..

Cold air and snow is just not meant to reach is.. thats FACT

We best start looking forward to warm dry summer days, but i think were going to be stuck in a muddle of mild/cool unsettled much for the coming 2/3 months.

But i am now longing for those long June days... With the sun baking the grass... The smell of the barby in the air... Ohhhhhhh baby! Can't wait;)

Snowbie

Well March lately has been our coldest month with snow on Paddys day last year and also the beginning of March when i have recorded my all time lowest Temp.I wouldnt be surprised if we had another cold spell again in March,well its not science but has been happening in this decade.

Scubadevils

It looked good alright for a couple of days but I certainly didnt even start to get excited...the last was such a let down that I have now learnt my lesson

I now really cant wait for summer...getting decking out the back in a few weeks and really look forward to a coffee and read of the paper out the back on a sunny summers morning

Supercell

No comment on the 12z yet?

Its looking very interesting early next week with remarkable agreement between the models.

Also I should remind some that think a northerly or northwesterly is no good on the east coast counties...its March, not December to Feburary.
The sun is very capable of developing showers overland which wouldnt have beefed up at all or died away a month ago.

I'm rather happy about the way its all panning out.

We would need -15 850's for low level settling snow but some of the runs on the 12z are heading in that direction!

ninebeanrows

Yea yea i've been watching it on the Patrick's Day thread

Speaking of Patrick's Day



Could get to 15c with some sunshine... ahhhhhhhh yes;)

Snowbie

longfield wrote:

Also I should remind some that think a northerly or northwesterly is no good on the east coast counties...its March, not December to Feburary.
The sun is very capable of developing showers overland which wouldnt have beefed up at all or died away a month ago.

In this instance,showers develop due to convection overland and requires heating of the ground by the sun which inturn heats the air above the ground and rises,this is true.As the sun is stronger in March than December to Febuary so is the heating of the surface and the heating of the air above it reducing the affect of snow at low levels.

Now this is where it gets tricky to explain.
If the airmass over a land is in a mild,cool sector in the wake of a front,convection will be enhanced in direct solar radiation(suns heat) regardless of wind direction overland.
But if in a cold sector(artic airstream) as cold air decends,convection is limited to only cumulus fragments overland and further away from windward coasts with the slightest chance of showers.The closer you are to a windward coast in this case:the North or NW the greater the chance of showers from an unstable North Atlantic ocean,showers drying up or building further as they move southwards depending on how cold/warm the airmass is.

Now a trough line is different.If it is an active trough line moving down from the north,this is the dividing line between two different airmass.Ahead of it is cool and behind it cold.Cold undercuts the cool forcing it to rise and create a line of showers,but if the air is very cold ahead of the approaching trough it is more likely that it will dry up before reaching Wicklow in a line across to Limerick as the air is too dry and cold overland.

This time last year:an active trough moved down from the north enhanced due to orographic lift and minimal convection over north midlands/NI.As the air was only cool around 3c so the trough started to dissipate as it moved southwards giving a few a dusting even here at low level but was nothing more when it moved into Wicklow.Its rare we see an trough reaching the south coast in winter months including March.It would have to be in a gale to blow it far southwards.Again all above dependant on how cold/mild the air over the land is which is key.

ninebeanrows

Models look great today, chance of some snow early next week

Supercell

Chart of the day goes to this one imho..is that a trough moving down the Irish sea with a potentialy easterly element to it?!!

Snowbie

Yep,good source of cold air straight from the artic.Chart of the winter/spring ftw.