Model thread Feb/ early march-Is winter peeping back?

ninebeanrows

Well good confidence tonight and it would seem towards late March we will be heading into the wintriest spell of weather of the "winter" that was.

Looks like snow showers are possible almost anywhere and if a ditrubance occurs during the hours of darkness we could wake up to some lying snow.

What is going to be very noticeable though is that on Patrick's Day it will be upto 14c while on Bank Holiday Monday maxima will struggle to reach 4c and again on Tuesday. They are extremely low maxima for this time of year.

Looking verrrrrrry good:D

ninebeanrows

Well good confidence tonight and it would seem towards late March we will be heading into the wintriest spell of weather of the "winter" that was.

Looks like snow showers are possible almost anywhere and if a ditrubance occurs during the hours of darkness we could wake up to some lying snow.

What is going to be very noticeable though is that on Patrick's Day it will be upto 14c while on Bank Holiday Monday maxima will struggle to reach 4c and again on Tuesday. They are extremely low maxima for this time of year.

Looking verrrrrrry good:D

Oh and Longfield i beg to differ..

This is the best set of Ensembles all winter..



Wahhhhhhhhhhooo:D

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

Oh and Longfield i beg to differ..

This is the best set of Ensembles all winter..

Wahhhhhhhhhhooo:D

Lollers, those ensembles are amazing, tempted to do an "if only they happened 8 weeks ago", but then - they wouldn't, so lets enjoy them now!

I can see temporary lying snow here for myself and artictree if these charts come off, and very optimistic that most parts of Dublin and Wicklow at least will see some decent sneachta showers out of this

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote:

Lollers, those ensembles are amazing, tempted to do an "if only they happened 8 weeks ago", but then - they wouldn't, so lets enjoy them now!

I can see temporary lying snow here for myself and artictree if these charts come off, and very optimistic that most parts of Dublin and Wicklow at least will see some decent sneachta showers out of this

Yea i'd be happy just to see that cloud darken to the North and watch the sheets of snow come over ya..

Theres nothing nicer than heavy snow showers!:D

Scubadevils

snow :rolleyes:

arctictree

Still about 4 days left so things could change but as I said earlier, not unusual to have lying snow here in March. Could be digi cam time again!!

A

Supercell

arctictree wrote:

Still about 4 days left so things could change but as I said earlier, not unusual to have lying snow here in March. Could be digi cam time again!!

A

Music to my ears !!
Two lying snow events in one year?!!, jebus haven't experienced that since the 80's!!
Then again haven't experienced lying snow like in February for a long while either!!

arctictree

Longfield wrote:

Music to my ears !!
Two lying snow events in one year?!!, jebus haven't experienced that since the 80's!!
Then again haven't experienced lying snow like in February for a long while either!!

Didn't we also have lying snow one morning in late January?? That would be 2 events then and now we're going for a third!

A

Supercell

arctictree wrote:

Didn't we also have lying snow one morning in late January?? That would be 2 events then and now we're going for a third!

A

H'mm not sure, would have very excitedly posted if we did for sure!! (as that would have been my first Annamoe snow). Must check posts.
Was that a snow on car type fall?

Supercell

arctictree wrote:

Didn't we also have lying snow one morning in late January?? That would be 2 events then and now we're going for a third!

A

Found it!! (even called it "annamoe_firstsnow" !!)



I'd have done cartwheels in previous years and remembered that, but Febuary four days of lying snow blotted that right out.

Going for third snow event, yep, bring it on!!

ninebeanrows

This is the type of chart i like to see:D




Could well be a white Bank Holiday Monday:D

ninebeanrows

:eek:

Trogdor

The charts have actually brought the cold sanp forward abit now showing snow later on Sunday aswell. Might actually see something white before i leave Dublin airport. Leaving at 05:00 on Monday morning, would be the ultimate insult of the "winter" for it to be snowing as we took off:(

arctictree

trogdor wrote:

The charts have actually brought the cold sanp forward abit now showing snow later on Sunday aswell. Might actually see something white before i leave Dublin airport. Leaving at 05:00 on Monday morning, would be the ultimate insult of the "winter" for it to be snowing as we took off:(

Or maybe it will be snowing heavily and your flight will be cancelled!!

I could imagine the chaos at Dublin airport on a snow day. Its bad enough as it is!

A

Snowbie

A trough running onshore off the Irish sea is nice to see with a northerly wind.But reliable timeframe lads aint upon us yet.That high pressure could topple on us like the last one did in January when it was meant to go Greenland way.WC,18z gfs is the perfect setup though for potential.
Also PL formations heaven to our north too,that is what im looking for.

darkman2

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/84_30.gif

The snow begins on Sunday morning, expect some disruption:)

BAH HUMBUG!
So much for an early summer!

Your all Crazy!

darkman2

First warning from UKMO

The Met Office is forecasting a marked change in the weather, with a very cold northerly airstream becoming established across the United Kingdom during Sunday 18th March and then persisting until at least Wednesday 21st March. During this period, there is potential for significant snowfall events over parts of the country, which could cause disruption. The first significant snow event is expected to occur overnight Sunday and during Monday. This could cause disruption to travel networks especially across higher level routes. Outdoor activities could also be affected by the snow. This warning will be updated around 1100 tomorrow, Friday 16th March.

Issued at: 1309 Thu 15 Mar

It looks to me like our first snowfall will arrive during Sunday afternoon. Disruption looks likely Monday morning. Expect some big or prolonged snow showers.

Snowbie

According to that if you live in UK.Scotland and eastern UK will be at greatest risk as instability will be far greater there than here closer to the LP,not bothered with what they get,its what we get that interests me.
Id keep the eyes open for little disturbances in the Irish sea on monday,it could be significant for us in the east.

nacho libre

Great news! Our last flirtation with Winter in Spring!

ninebeanrows

North leinster in the highest risk zone:eek:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070315_annex.html

Chief Forecaster’s commentary

Period Sunday 18th to Monday 19th March

Snow threat

An Arctic air mass will push south during Sunday, with deep instability bringing heavy snow showers, enhanced at times by organised troughs. Exact timings of organised troughs still remain uncertain at this stage.

The 1,000-500 hPa thickness will fall below 516 decametres (remarkably low for the time of year) by the end of Monday, even in the south of the UK. Couple this with sea-surface temperatures of between 1.5 and 2.5 °C above average and we can expect deep convective instability and heavy snow showers in places.

The main areas at risk will be Scotland and Northern Ireland at first, but there is also a significant risk for western and eastern areas of the UK exposed to the northerly winds. Conditions may be conducive for the formation of polar lows.

Winds will veer slowly during Monday, becoming northerly by the evening leading to an increasing number of snow showers to affect North Sea coasts and adjacent land areas later.

Significant accumulations are expected above 200 metres and temporary accumulations at low levels.

Ice threat

There is a moderate risk of ice associated with areas affected by earlier daytime snow subsequently melting and then re-freezing after dark. The risk of ice is primarily for Scotland on Sunday morning, but extending to other areas thereafter; still too early for the detail on this.

Thats an analysis you don't often see.

To convert it over to Ireland,I'd imagine high ground in ULSTER,NORTH LEINSTER,WEST MUNSTER and CONNAUGHT should get a plastering.
Lower ground will also see sleet and snow with temporary coverings in the heavier showers.

South Leinster say from south Wicklow west to Carlow laois wexford,kilkenny and waterford may see nothing at all or very little as they are most sheltered.

Thunder storms may rage in the Irish sea like the ones in the october 2003 set up (36hrs of thunder in Dublin).
It's hard to say whether these will head straight down the sea and avoid the East coast thus affecting mainly wales and corn wall like they usually do in these set ups OR they might be close enough to the East in a trough to affect the likes of Louth,meath Dublin and Wicklow-though only I think to 20 miles inland max unless theres an inland trough heading south also which is possible.
There could be a lot of snow in the East in that scenario but you'd have to be lucky (or unlucky if you dont like or want snow)

I expect the worst of the activity to be out west and up north though,with that Eastern scenario a possibility rather than a probablity.
Watch the radar for that.

I might add that this artic air mass is very unstable and ripe for polar lows.
The hp cell seems to be progged too far west of Ireland to interfere with that.

Polar lows are notoriously difficult to forecast or pin down.
The best you can do is know that conditions are ripe for them and then spot them and track their course.
Thats a 24 to 36 hour notice thing I think at best.

So to add to my last post,if you get one of them coming down you are going to get enhanced shower activity inland as well as on coasts and a pretty wintry situation almost anywhere but especially in the midlands,North,NW and NE including probably Dublin.

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

I might add that this artic air mass is very unstable and ripe for polar lows.
The hp cell seems to be progged too far west of Ireland to interfere with that.

Polar lows are notoriously difficult to forecast or pin down.
The best you can do is know that conditions are ripe for them and then spot them and track their course.
Thats a 24 to 36 hour notice thing I think at best.

So to add to my last post,if you get one of them coming down you are going to get enhanced shower activity inland as well as on coasts and a pretty wintry situation almost anywhere but especially in the midlands,North,NW and NE including probably Dublin.

Yes Tristrame very interesting spell of weather ahead.

Im just wondering GFS continually shows a trough kind of dragging through ulster and into the Irish sea and down into Wales.. As this ever happened before where it hugged to the Irish east coast even though the wind flow is Northerly and not Northeasterly?

Anyway looks like we will see a real peppering of showers countrywide as there will definately be 1 or maybe 2 troughs..

The most interesting aspect is during early Monday an area of 500hpa air below -40c comes into the North Irish Sea, under such instability and cold upper air temps polar lows are a real possibility or at least some formation of organised snow.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Im just wondering GFS continually shows a trough kind of dragging through ulster and into the Irish sea and down into Wales.. As this ever happened before where it hugged to the Irish east coast even though the wind flow is Northerly and not Northeasterly?

Yes october 2003.36 hours of flooding and thunderstorms in Dublin-except if its repeated the precipitation if that heavy should be snow.

The most interesting aspect is during early Monday an area of 500hpa air below -40c comes into the North Irish Sea, under such instability and cold upper air temps polar lows are a real possibility or at least some formation of organised snow.

I'd agree but the devil is in the detail and that wont be known untill maybe saturday night at the earliest.

rc28

Is that a trough over ireland i see?:D
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack2.gif

Snowbie

Tristrame wrote:

I might add that this artic air mass is very unstable and ripe for polar lows.
The hp cell seems to be progged too far west of Ireland to interfere with that.

I have being saying that now for awhile about PL.Near perfect conditions for them to blossom up way off the Northern coast of Ireland.
The hp would not interfere too much if it came a little closer but would dampen down instability for sure.Remember January.

North and west to be worse affected from showers and nowcasting for PL formation for certain which i think is our only chance for a snow scenario here in the east.
Sea temps are much lower now than what we experienced in 2003 thunderstorms so not ruling it out but would not be of the incessant nature we got back then if they come onshore.
Interesting times ahead.

arctictree

Snowbie wrote:

North and west to be worse affected from showers and nowcasting for PL formation for certain which i think is our only chance for a snow scenario here in the east.
Sea temps are much lower now than what we experienced in 2003 thunderstorms so not ruling it out but would not be of the incessant nature we got back then if they come onshore.
Interesting times ahead.

We had thunder/lightning and snow in October 2003 in Roundwood. Maddest weather I can remember. The snow actually stuck for an hour or so - v unusual for October.

A

Snowbie

arctictree wrote:

We had thunder/lightning and snow in October 2003 in Roundwood. Maddest weather I can remember. The snow actually stuck for an hour or so - v unusual for October.

A

Yeah mad stuff Artictree,mostly over south Dublin but lasted a whoping 25hrs of lightning.Very cold wind over a warm sea created massive instability off the coast and a NE wind took it in over the region.I wouldnt think this would be repeated in terms of the 2003 extreme case but could see a couple of storms running way off shore down the sea.Should have me lightning detector back up by then.

Trogdor

Snowbie wrote:

Yeah mad stuff Artictree,mostly over south Dublin but lasted a whoping 25hrs of lightning.Very cold wind over a warm sea created massive instability off the coast and a NE wind took it in over the region.I wouldnt think this would be repeated in terms of the 2003 extreme case but could see a couple of storms running way off shore down the sea.Should have me lightning detector back up by then.

Don't remember the cold but i hadn't found my interest in weather yet back then and wasn't monitoring anything so it was a great surprise:D , i do remember the thunder and power cuts seeming to go forever though.
Anyway back on topic and looks like there actually is a chance that my flight could be delayed/cancelled on Monday morning due to wintry conditions:eek: