Odds Question

padser

I am just wondering about the odds offered by bookies.

As betting increases on one particular outcome (be it a horse winning a race, or a football team winning a match) the odds given on that outcome become shorter. My question is do the odds of another outcome (so the given team losing - or the other team winning) become correspondingly longer??

Collie D

Supply and demand - if all the money is on one outcome the bookies will want people to bet on the other horse/team etc. so will lengthen their prices to attract support (hopefully)

Bernard Hopkins

Quite true,....
the odds should always represent the likelyhood of the said outcome.

i.e "man utd play aston villa"
starting price will be : MAN UTD -2.00 DRAW 3.25 ASTON VILLA- 10.00

Man utd score a goal,... market closes briefly, and new price looks like this
MAN UTD -1.30 DRAW 4.50 ASTON VILLA 30.00

the bookie profit margin should be somewhere in the region of 8%.

padser

Bernard Hopkins wrote:

the bookie profit margin should be somewhere in the region of 8%.

Interesting, so assuming that it does 'even out' in this way how come the sitaution doesn't arise whereby for example, on a 6 nations game between Ireland and France (excluding the possibility of a draw, and assuming for simplicities sake that it started out as a 50/50 game) you could put €x on Ireland to win in a FRENCH bookmakers [I assume most money there would be on France) and €x on France to win in an IRISH bookmakers [where I know most money is on Ireland] and end up coming out ahead regardless of the outcome?

hotspur

It does happen, it's called arbitrage.

padser

Ah, and I guess, as within most markets arbitrage oppertunities are both rare, and fleeting!

ROCKMAN

hotspur wrote:

It does happen, it's called arbitrage.

Could you explain this in more detail please,,

Glenbhoy

padser wrote:

Interesting, so assuming that it does 'even out' in this way how come the sitaution doesn't arise whereby for example, on a 6 nations game between Ireland and France (excluding the possibility of a draw, and assuming for simplicities sake that it started out as a 50/50 game) you could put €x on Ireland to win in a FRENCH bookmakers [I assume most money there would be on France) and €x on France to win in an IRISH bookmakers [where I know most money is on Ireland] and end up coming out ahead regardless of the outcome?

The biggest problem here is that very few countries have a mature and competitive betting industry, thus if you found a bookies in france (and I'm not aware of any) they would most likely be offering you win only straight odds betting on the game, their odds would probably be something like this:
Ireland 1/3, France 2/5, Draw evs - maybe a bit extreme, but the only bookie in Italy regularly gave odds such as these and you'd have to bet min trebs etc.
As for arbitrage, best to open a betfair account and trade prices, you don't need as big a bank, and you're not as likely to be stymied by bookies not allowing you to bet the amounts you need to take a skim off the top.

hotspur

ROCKMAN wrote:

Could you explain this in more detail please,,

I know a lot about gambling but google and Wikipedia know more

Check out this guide:
http://www.sports-arbitrage.info/

Arbitraging in sports betting requires a lot of money and a lot of hard work. It has gotten harder to do than it used to be a couple of years ago because information is everything and arbing opportunities are now promulgated more widely which results in the opportunity being quickly lost. It's still a good way of bonus whoring your way through the sports betting site world.

Bateman

http://www.ucantlose.co.uk/

RaiseTheBlinds

arb bets are around alright,...it just takes longer to find them

tonight i had 825 on paddypowers for rangers to qualify @ 1/2
and i also had 300 on ladbrokes on the isreali team at 11/4

no draw possibility of course.
works out at 112 euro profit with no risk,.......
ladbrokes have taken their 300 as a hopel lost, paddypowers have not settled my bet yet , hours later. but im almost certain they will !!
now i have to hope that they dont come along and say they gave me the wrong odds,..... of course we are completely at their mercy.

but they need it to be "blatant" price error,... so they might come back and say "oh sorry,..rangers should have actually have been priced at 1/8"
now the comparison is so wide from 1/2 to 1/8 , that they may try argue a case.... and also only have to pay out a fraction of what they should have paid.


basically the "no risk bet" does in fact carry a risk, as your'e in the hands of the bookie.

if you want integrity then go to betfair,.... where there is never a problem buying or selling once the market has sufficient liquidity.

RaiseTheBlinds

also ,
the compilers are under pressure to come up with a price that is not damagaing to their interests yet competitive , people will go next door to the competition if they can get 13/8 instead of 6/4,....but they also have deadlines to meet for coupons to be printed etc.
a bookie will always try to hold its price if possible for that very reason (coupons)

a useful site in your search for value bets is oddschecker. com

we should set up a circle of people who will contribute their "finds" in private messaging.
I am more than happy to let anybody here know of any arb bets i discover.

the american sports are easy to find,..between under/overs , betfair laying , and rapid price changes. i have back 2 sides each at 11/10 many many times, the usa sports arent covered on tv here and the interest from irish punters is so slim , that the coupons are given little attention.

some bookies are light staffed after midnight, and also there tends to be huge masses of money placed very late on certain fixtures , resuting in a favourite becoming under-dog rapidly- time to strike.
the irish bookie who isnt taking much money on these events dont keep up to date on the price hikes/falls.

hotspur

Good post. Maybe this forum isn't a dead loss after all, it's nice to read someone who *actually* has a clue about the nature of sports betting rather than the usual 8 way soccer accumulator / nag my hairdresser tipped fare.

RaiseTheBlinds

yeah,........ still havent been paid out by paddypower 24 hours later !!!!

going to email them now !!

RaiseTheBlinds

got my loot after a phone-call.

Hotspur,.... where does your interests take you ?? - horses ? soccer ? everything ?

im keen to know your strategies , tips, as i am a hound for more information !!
I'd be well on for exchanging info on where the value bets are,.... 4 eyes are better than 2 !!

personally i dont touch horses and never will,... far too dodgy.
got a friend on the greyhound business,..who would share his insight, but only get the scraps after their circle place their wagers. ie low odds, or low available stakes.

Bateman

Always try to stay away from horses, but I always end up dabbling now and again, and eating into other sports' profits. :rolleyes:

I am always interested in arbing opportunities, but seldom have the time to do the necessary searching, and also seldom have the funds on short notice that are required to make arbs worthwhile.

ManWithThePlan

hey guys just letting you know if you are arbing using the traditional bookies such as PP, ladcrookes, etc. you should be very careful. The traders hate arbsters and if you get found out they WILL restrict your account and eventually close it.

They tend to work together on this issue and you'd be amazed at what the traders find out about their customers.

If you want to arb then go to betfair.

Be carefull...

RaiseTheBlinds

can they discuss your personal details with each other ?

if so then that would explain a lot, why ive been restricted after a small number of bets from vc's.
but i'd be very upset if they did break the confidence code they proport to offer.

arbing on betfair is so difficult,.... with your profit in direct proportion to your risk. with the bookmakers,.. the only risk is getting the bets down at the same time as each other (in running).

i discovered 2 decent arb bets yesterday, making a healthy days wages on a relatively low stake,... so im serious if anybody is willing to "trade arbs",... we can set up a small community by PM's.
theres nothing wrong with arb betting,... its perfectly legal and profitable.

ManWithThePlan

RaiseTheBlinds, i'd be interested in your PM community.

I found a 87.5% book on a Champions League game last week.

You gotta be careful when using <100% books as sometimes it's too good to be true. Alot of bookies will quote the 'blatant price error' and void your bet or settle it at the correct price, resulting in you losing €€€