Supreme Novices Arb Opportunity

Paddy Irishman

Just noticed now that Paddy Power go 11/4 (3.75) Amaretto Rose who can be laid at 3.60 at this moment on Betfair. Enjoy!

wb

Paddy Irishman wrote:

Just noticed now that Paddy Power go 11/4 (3.75) Amaretto Rose who can be laid at 3.60 at this moment on Betfair. Enjoy!

Well spotted!

It's all been mopped up now, and both prices are the same.

ErinGoBrath

Given that the commission is 5% on betfair how could one make money on this?

Just curious.

wb

ErinGoBrath wrote:

Given that the commission is 5% on betfair how could one make money on this?

Just curious.

(3.75) Amaretto Rose who can be laid at 3.60 at this moment on Betfair.

Using €100 as an example.....

• Back the horse at 3.75 with paddypower (11/4)
• Lay the horse at 3.60 with betfair (13/5)

If the horse wins, you earn €275 with paddypower (no commission) but lose €260 with betfair.
Total return should the horse win: €15


If the horse loses, you lose €100 with paddypower, and gain €95 (after 5%commission)
Total return should the horse lose: -€5


HOWEVER, this is using level stakes. You can ensure a small profit either way by using a hedging calculator with non-level stakes:

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/hedging-calculator.html

ErinGoBrath

Problem here being that the difference in the too prices is too marginal for you to be able to hedge and make a profit (considering the 5% comms on lay).

Good to keep a watchful eye out for these opportunities though!

wb

You need to be very quick as most of it gets mopped up by the bots (such as VHF - value horse finder). The arbing 'market' has become very tight in the last year or two, but there still seems to be some discrepancies with the greyhound b.a.g.s. meetings (to small stakes) if you are quick enough.