Snow and forecasts.

ninebeanrows

Sweet, You know where Polar Lows form?? on the end of occlusions

Muchas Potential.. And growing liklyhood of a period of widespread snow during the early hours of Monday.

darkman2

A few hours later:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

Just gets better and better.

My only concern is the 850's and dew points. Not sure whether they will be the right side of marginal yet.

ninebeanrows

Sweet Charts they are, Sweet Sweet Sweet...

The 850's and DP's will be grand i feel..

Expecially seen as the airmass as in higher up is extremely cold this will help..

My concern is there being No precip here but at the moment things are looking tres bien !:D

SpitfireIV

Bloody hell........I hate ye guys!! I was lured back in here again, a voice told me something was in the air, and that I should come here!

I dont want to be hurt again.........(:D )

darkman2

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Bloody hell........I hate ye guys!! I was lured back in here again, a voice told me something was in the air, and that I should come here!

I dont want to be hurt again.........(:D )

Welcome to the fun house:D


They always come back:D

Supercell

Those fax charts are just amazing, the source of that air is close to the north pole, seriously amazing fax charts!!

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

Sweet Charts they are, Sweet Sweet Sweet...

The 850's and DP's will be grand i feel..

Expecially seen as the airmass as in higher up is extremely cold this will help..

My concern is there being No precip here but at the moment things are looking tres bien !:D

If it was Jan and early Feb would probably be bone dry with long spells of sunshine on the east coast with reports of the Northwest and NI getting plastered.
However its mid March, even without a polar low I reckon some light snow will fall in Dublin and north Wicklow at the very least.

SpitfireIV

Ok, I know 'Metcheck' aint exactly that highly regarded when it comes to forecasting etc etc, but even during the last 'snow warning' there 'snowRisk' feature only ever read between 40%-60% chance of snow.....which was about right.

However I see today that it has 100% risk of snow for Monday/Tuesday


Its happening......I'm getting sucked in, damn! :eek:

arctictree

Longfield wrote:

Those fax charts are just amazing, the source of that air is close to the north pole, seriously amazing fax charts!!

Yes - Svalbard is very cold this time of year!!

A

fatherdougalmag

And there's me thinking that this week's UCI Kids' Club showing was completely out of season. (And they've had that advertised since January!)

Glasnevin at 0755am on the radio went for a return tomild south westerlies,a significant rise in temps,rain etc from wenesday.
I haven't looked yet but what are they basing that on?
Last I looked an Easterly,a nuisance mucky prolonged one was on the cards.

Supercell

Certainly see no sign of it on the Bracknell fax charts at all, I suppose they are expecting the breakdown to happen pretty fast, Wednesday is too far ahead to forecast accurately at this time anyhow imho.

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

Glasnevin at 0755am on the radio went for a return tomild south westerlies,a significant rise in temps,rain etc from wenesday.
I haven't looked yet but what are they basing that on?
Last I looked an Easterly,a nuisance mucky prolonged one was on the cards.

Hardly a breakdown tbh but looking like milder weather will push in from the west during Wednesday evening.. still remaining cool though with an easterly breeze returning Thursday

Now its looking really exciting for Sunday Night.. really possibility for signifigant snowfall if condtions are right, at the moment it looks like for Dublin temperatures of 1c with dewpoints of 0c with heavy precipitation from late Sunday to early Morning Monday with winds gusting to 50/60mph.

Its a recipe for disruption

Potential for sig falls of more than 4 inches even to lower levels if the PL forms which is looking a decent shot at the minute otherwise some trough/frontal snow should amoount to 2 inches at least for area of North Leinster and 4 for the North and North West.

ninebeanrows

Here's a sweet Chart for you Patricks Day viewing..

This baby has every liklyhood it will be a Polar low come the day, 500hpa temps below -40c over the North Irish sea at the time.



Perfect timing during Nightfall...

ninebeanrows

And look what baby they decided to throw on the 72 hour chart! The salvation of many!!

Yeah I see the tree structure down the Irish sea alright WC.
It's no surprise,its just a visualisation of what you would expect to happen with air this cold and unstable rushing down a relatively warm Irish sea.

But in a northerly that activity might be too far out to sea to affect Eastern Ireland.
It went right into the East in October 2003 but that was rare for a northerly.
9 times out of 10 it develops out at sea and the northerly brings it due south so it stays away from us.
You will see tantalising towers on the Eastern horizon teasing you possibly.

North wales and the higher ground of pembrokeshire are much more in the fireing line from that.

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

Yeah I see the tree structure down the Irish sea alright WC.
It's no surprise,its just a visualisation of what you would expect to happen with air this cold and unstable rushing down a relatively warm Irish sea.

But in a northerly that activity might be too far out to sea to affect Eastern Ireland.
It went right into the East in October 2003 but that was rare for a northerly.
9 times out of 10 it develops out at sea and the northerly brings it due south so it stays away from us.
You will see tantalising towers on the Eastern horizon teasing you possibly.

North wales and the higher ground of pembrokeshire are much more in the fireing line from that.

Yea but it wouldnt take the winds to veer to much for them to push onto the east coast, all to play for..

And it starts as early as tomorrow morning as the Arctic Air digs south then tomorrow Night potential for some good snowfall.

ninebeanrows

I have growing confidence that a Polar Low will form around Iceland early tomorrow and track into Ireland early Monday in the wee hours.. Exact track into Ireland is uncertain at this point but i do have 40% confidence for 1 to form early tomorrow, conditions and synoptics suggest that one will form

ninebeanrows

UKM 6z would suggest that a PL type feature is almost certain now but temperaures and DP's are going to be needed to be watched as 850's are likely to rise to -5c in the centre of the system.

The positives are Temps are supposed to be 1/0c at the time, DP's at freezing and it will occur during nightime, winds going offshore..

I'd say a 80% liklyhood the precip would be snow, also some windy conditions likely with the feature... Some that needs to be watched/..

lucernarian

That's a very nice chart indeed Weathercheck. The satellite footage for tomorrow will be very interesting indeed. I'll be sickened if the warm front spoils everything, like on Christmas Day 2004.

ninebeanrows

To_be_confirmed wrote:

That's a very nice chart indeed Weathercheck. The satellite footage for tomorrow will be very interesting indeed. I'll be sickened if the warm front spoils everything, like on Christmas Day 2004.

Oh god i remember that! It could have been special but the lying snow turned to slush and the snow to wet sleet!

The temperaure change won't be so stark this time though.. were talking about moving from -8c to -5c then back down to -8c soon after and down to -10c late Monday

ninebeanrows

Something to cheer ya all up on this disappointing day

Snowbie

So unfortunate.Roll on the world cup.

OT,here outlines the disturbance or PL moving down Donegal Wicklow direction.Perfect positioning,perfect for snow if the temps hold out.Mtns could have a real dumping from this disturbance.

http://www.meteoblue.ch/

lucernarian

Good signs on the 7 pm forecast. Mention of "snowfalls" and "countrywide". We might get the most snow of the season, tomorrow night. (Longfield and Arctictree excepted, possibly along with the parts of Connaught which did well out of the stall event)

Snowbie

Post here on snow thats about to fall,or falling presently at your locations around the country.Its going to be an interesting next 48 hrs or so with high levels most at risk up north and north west but low levels will see snow lying from sunday night and also into monday.Update with links to radar as i think they will be used consistently throughout.

Will also feel icy out in the wind with significant wind chill and after thawing snow will freeze over after sundown.

Bitter cold countrywide with low singal figure temps by day and sub zero by night.
Be careful out driving people.

Do not post pics in this thread.Post them [thread=2055050139]here[/thread]

Supercell

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Good signs on the 7 pm forecast. Mention of "snowfalls" and "countrywide". We might get the most snow of the season, tomorrow night. (Longfield and Arctictree excepted, possibly along with the parts of Connaught which did well out of the stall event)

TBC, if a polar low is on the way, we all are going to do well

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote:

TBC, if a polar low is on the way, we all are going to do well

Indeed but just to reiterated Polar Lows are amazing but they are quite local, there very small little cyclones with tight bands of very heavy precip, impossible to forecast their tiny circulation but they would affect an areas probably 100 miles by 100miles

Supercell

Local snow IMBY is all I want!!

I want a second snow day off work this season, and from the looks of things its a possibility.

arctictree

Gone very windy here - Temp still high at 10.4c.

Will be all downhill from here methinks!!

Tomorrow will be very interesting. A while since we had a good ole arctic blast...

A

Supercell

arctictree, no doubt you have seen lying snow in march before - have you ever seen it last for more than a day?