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Tommy Broughan on Dublin North East

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  • 21-03-2007 6:26pm
    #1
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,594 ✭✭✭✭


    A decent interview with Tommy Broughan on the general election this year...

    http://unitedirelander.blogspot.com/2007/03/words-on-wednesdaywith-tommy-broughan.html

    Some of the more interesting bits...
    This summer there will be a General Election here in the Republic. How confident are you that Labour will end up in Government?

    I'm quietly confident that Labour will end up in government after the next general election. I meet daily with constituents and the general perception does seem to be that people are tired of this tired government. People often say to me that 17 years out of the last 20 or 10 years in power is enough. I believe there will be a change and that Labour will be part of it.
    You were first elected as a TD for Dublin North East in 1992 and you've managed to hold on to your seat ever since. Do you anticipate a tough battle for your seat this year and are you confident of being re-elected once more?

    It will be very tough in Dublin North East this time round, as it always is. This will be my 7th election campaign, and my 5th for the Dail and it has always been a battle. It is a three seater constituency which currently has two Fianna Fail T.D.s and myself representing Labour. There will be a major challenge from Fine Gael and Sinn Fein and I also think that we shouldn't underestimate the Greens.
    What do you think will constitute success for Labour in this election? How many seats would you expect the party to pick up?

    Success in this election would be achieving 28 to 35 seats. I'm looking for a gain of at least 7 seats to 28 Labour T.D.s in Dail Eireann.

    I'm guessing Broughan is a lock for Dublin North East but is he being too ambitious regarding the number of seats he expects Labour to pick up?


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    #2
    Jonny Arson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,124 ✭✭✭Jonny Arson


    Labour don't have a chance in hell of getting 28 seats, if Tommy and Labour want to be somewhat realistic 24 maybe 25 tops.

    Only certain thing is Broughan will stroll into the next Dail, he's the only good politician in Dublin NE. I expect Fianna Fail to a take a significant hit here in Dublin NE, Michael Woods will get in again but will lose votes and Martin Brady looks gone (thankfully! :) ) and I expect his seat will be taken by Larry O'Toole of SF.


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    #3
    Voipjunkie
    Registered Users Posts: 1,062 ✭✭✭Voipjunkie


    Jonny Arson wrote:
    Labour don't have a chance in hell of getting 28 seats, if Tommy and Labour want to be somewhat realistic 24 maybe 25 tops.

    Only certain thing is Broughan will stroll into the next Dail, he's the only good politician in Dublin NE. I expect Fianna Fail to a take a significant hit here in Dublin NE, Michael Woods will get in again but will lose votes and Martin Brady looks gone (thankfully! :) ) and I expect his seat will be taken by Larry O'Toole of SF.


    I would not be so sure while O'Toole had a huge vote in the local elections not all of the Artane ward is in North East in the general election however the area where O'Tooles core vote is in the constituency.
    If they repeated the vote that O'Toole and Forde got in the local elections then there is a Quota there for SF however SF where on a bit of a roll in 2004 whether they can get that vote again I doubt it.
    On the other hand FG running 2 canidates will probably help SF stay ahead of FG.
    But I still think FF will probably hold 2 seats given SF lack of transfers


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    #4
    Jonny Arson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,124 ✭✭✭Jonny Arson


    Voipjunkie wrote:
    I would not be so sure while O'Toole had a huge vote in the local elections not all of the Artane ward is in North East in the general election however the area where O'Tooles core vote is in the constituency.
    If they repeated the vote that O'Toole and Forde got in the local elections then there is a Quota there for SF however SF where on a bit of a roll in 2004 whether they can get that vote again I doubt it.
    On the other hand FG running 2 canidates will probably help SF stay ahead of FG.
    But I still think FF will probably hold 2 seats given SF lack of transfers

    I'm pretty confident Sinn Fein's general quota from 2004 will carry through and increase despite the lack of potential transfers. The FG duo of Sambo Sweeney and Flanagan aren't really a factor as you said so it's looks like an O'Toole vs Brady battle. Don't forget Fianna Fail are suffering from a Dublin ''meltdown'' if you want to call it and taking FF's poor performance in the locality in 2004 into consideration I expect O'Toole to take a fair share of the FF vote. Sure, Woods only changed his mind regarding retiring and running due to Fianna Fail pressure to consolidate a respectable vote and a seat in the constituency.


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