Poll shows big drop for FF in Dublin

Múinteoir

It has them 5% down on their 2002 figure. Greens are big winners in the poll

New poll suggests capital backlash for Fianna Fail on eve of their Ard Fheis

Ahern faces loss of up to six seats in Dublin

FIANNA Fail is in danger of losing half a dozen seats in Dublin in the general election.

That is the main conclusion from a new poll showing its current standing in the capital is 32pc - 5pc down on its 2002 showing.

It also shows the Rainbow Coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens are seven points ahead of the outgoing government on combined totals in the capital.

The poll outcome will come as a shock to Taoiseach Bertie Ahern as Fianna Fail delegates gather later today for a two-day Ard-Fheis widely regarded as being their general election launch pad.

Such a scale of reverses in the capital - the cockpit of the election - would come as a major setback to Mr Ahern in his ambition to record a three-in-a-row.

In comparison, the poll will give the alternative government renewed hope as all the parties gear up for a tough election campaign. Fine Gael has gained more than 4pc on its poor result in the metropolitan area five years ago and is now on 18pc.

The party has just three seats in the capital, following its disastrous performance five years ago when it lost 23 seats in all and went down to just 31 nationally.

But it is in with a big chance of regaining several of the crucial seats in key Dublin constituencies such as South, South East and South West if it can repeat the performance in this poll on election day.

Fianna Fail could face the prospect of losing a seat in some of the Dublin constituencies in which it currently holds two seats, with potential problems looming in North-East, North-West, North, South-Central and South-West.

The contrasting fortunes for the two largest parties come in a survey conducted by Lansdowne Market Research for today's 'Irish Daily Star'.

And there is continuing good news for the Greens as their upward curve continues following a series of polls showing their fortunes improving throughout the country.

They have a 5pc increase on their figure for 2002 and now stand at 13pc in the capital, the home of five of its six TDs, including leader Trevor Sargent.

Such an increase, if repeated on polling day, gives them realistic chances of reaching double figures.

The outcome of the 47 seats in the 12 Dublin constituencies will go a long way towards deciding whether Fianna Fail or Fine Gael heads the next Government.

The poll shows Labour at 14pc, down 1pc in Dublin on 2002. The PDs are also down 1pc to 6pc, Sinn Fein drop 2pc to 7pc while Independents and others are unchanged on 9pc.

While the current Government of Fianna Fail and the PDs totals only 38pc on these figures, the Rainbow of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens outstrips them on 45pc.

The survey was conducted among a sample of 500 adults who say they are likely to vote. The pollsters say the maximum error margin is of 4pc (compared with 3pc on a sample of 1,000).

ballooba

I'd love to do a little dance right now, but I know there is only one poll that really counts. Fingers crossed though.

Múinteoir

ballooba wrote:

I'd love to do a little dance right now, but I know there is only one poll that really counts. Fingers crossed though.

Personally I think it underestimates the meltdown in Dublin actually. But yes, only time will tell. Finger and toes crossed.

ballooba

I would expect some BIG announcements from the FF árd fheis this weekend. Their campaign doesn't really seem to have built any momentum despite the new NDP and numerous high (media) profile bills.

The "Bertie's Team" posters that have been popping up around the city are cringeful. Not to mention that they smack of arrogance i.e. "we'll get in because we're Bertie's Boys".

MontgomeryClift

The talk from Fianna Fáil has been to do with prudence and all that, as if the opposition were being crafty by making promises. It's a bizarre change from 2002 when the government fought the election on the back of two destructive tax giveaway budgets and a hastily-made collection of lies (promises) about every major issue.

It could be that the media and electorate are wise to that trick - the 2002 election buying scheme has become notorious - and Progressive Fáil know they can't do it again. Or maybe they're just out of energy and haven't the stomach for the difficult economic times ahead and in their subconscious are prepared to lose. Or maybe they just need McCreevy back. He seemed to be the only one who had the stomach to unapologetically vandalise the economy to win an election.

K-9

It would be hard to see FF not losing seats in Dublin especially when FG have only 3. The Rainbow needs to gain 25/27 seats nationally, approx. 1/2 of what they have.

FG/Lab have 32% of the vote, same as FF in this poll

The Greens seem to be the key to the Rainbow winning Dublin. Maybe a transfers pact is needed for the Greens to FG/Lab as even Bertie at the Ard Fheis is playing the Green Card.

I think the main political parties are seeing that the protest vote in this election is going to the Greens and it looks like SF will be doing well to hold it's seats.

38 to 45 is still a small difference giving the PR system and the impact of transfers. There is a margin of error of 4%. Vote management is crucial as FF showed last time.

Oh yeah, FF wasn't the only party with voter pleasing manifestos. FG and the Eircom tax rebate comes to mind.

Elmo

The Greens should stand on there own two feet.

At the end of the election they will have to make a choice and that choice could include FF.

Labour shouldn't go into pacts with FG, it doesn't help them. They should aim to be the 2nd party in the dail.

I believe that their are many FF voters have change party and their votes will be given to Labour, The Greens and SF.

legs11

thats bleedin rapid.........!

i hope all the dubs go against the useless gobshyte bertie, he is in charge of our nation for a long time, and its not getting any better. all he does he nutter on nonsense with his trademark smirk......


FACT.

ballooba

Seanies32 wrote:

The Greens seem to be the key to the Rainbow winning Dublin. Maybe a transfers pact is needed for the Greens to FG/Lab as even Bertie at the Ard Fheis is playing the Green Card.

The FG/Lab voting pact is explicit.
The FG/Lab/Green voting pact is implicit.

I think the green party have let people know where their preference lies. It's up to us now!

SeanW

I imagine the Greens would not be keen to go into business with FF unless they got serious environmental committments from them. I notice that FF has been trying to increase it's green credentials with Transport 21, and a whole bunch of orders for new trains, a much talked about climate strategy etc.

I certainly agree with the FG/Labour pact, their policies and traditional stances are different, but they're united in their position as a credible alternative government. FF sucks.

Elmo

The Greens have not stated that they will not go into government with FF.

I think if it comes down to it and the numbers don't add up for the Rainbow Coalition then the Greens should go into government with FF. Perhaps if they really want another party they should say to FF that if they go into government with FF then Labour comes in with the Greens.

The Greens have not totally ruled out FF. It is silly to be going into an election closing doors on possablities.

I personally don't want to see FG, FF or the PD's in government next time round. (But that's defo not a possiblity, wouldn't like to close all my doors lol, well bar the PD's)

Leader Trevor Sargent has stated that he will not be Tainiste in a FF/Green government and that he would also look to see that Fahy and Cullen are not in the next cabinet should they go into government with FF. He will take a ministerial position in such a government but he will not be leader of the Green party. This is a good position which never rules out anything.

ballooba

Elmo wrote:

I personally don't want to see FG, FF or the PD's in government next time round. (But that's defo not a possiblity, wouldn't like to close all my doors lol, well bar the PD's).

That is impossible at the moment. It will never happen in our lifetimes.

Múinteoir

Elmo wrote:

Leader Trevor Sargent has stated that he will not be Tainiste in a FF/Green government and that he would also look to see that Fahy and Cullen are not in the next cabinet should they go into government with FF. He will take a ministerial position in such a government but he will not be leader of the Green party. This is a good position which never rules out anything.

Has any other party leader stated that he would step down as leader rather than go into coalition with FF? I think you're not going get much more of a guarantee than that from any party.

K-9

M&#250 wrote: »

Has any other party leader stated that he would step down as leader rather than go into coalition with FF? I think you're not going get much more of a guarantee than that from any party.

So if the numbers don't add up for the Rainbow and FF need the support of either the Greens or Labour these 2 parties with votes of 13/14% in this poll have a veto on the next Govt. I don't think the electorate would be to happy if there had to be another election because the Greens/Lab didn't do a deal with FF for a stable Govt.

Múinteoir

Seanies32 wrote:

So if the numbers don't add up for the Rainbow and FF need the support of either the Greens or Labour these 2 parties with votes of 13/14% in this poll have a veto on the next Govt. I don't think the electorate would be to happy if there had to be another election because the Greens/Lab didn't do a deal with FF for a stable Govt.

It could just as easily be argued that the majority of the electorate who don't vote FF would be even more pissed off that either of those parties might keep the same shower in power a la Dick Spring in 1992 and then they would massacred come the next election, as happened to Labour in 1997. You can spin this stuff anyway you like.

Dr Galen

what did you all make of Bertie's keynote (election manifesto) speech.

Personally I wasn't that impressed, sure it got the FF masses all riled up but tbh I've stopped trusting FF a long way back.

I particularly liked his quip about how FF Will employ the nurses that this countries patients need......sure they can't pay the ones we've got properly and won't take any more to fill the drastic shortages we have right now in some hospitals. where will this cash come from?

K-9

That Govt. also fell for what a lot of people felt where personal rather than political reasons, despite the appalling Brendan Smyth affair. U could argue other reasons why Labour never got back to the level of 1992. Maybe they where just the protest vote at the time? Democratic Left did well at that election as well.

Labour where in Govt. with the rainbow, not FF come the 97 election. Maybe the Govt. of the time at more to do with it than the FF/Lab Govt from 3 years previous.

There are many reasons why Labour haven't got back to that level, not just a decision they made 15 years ago. Labour should look at their own party and electoral record rather than blaming FF 15 years ago.

My point wasn't a spin at all. If FF get say 38/39% why should a party who gets say 10/16% have a veto on going into Govt. with them, especially if the Rainbow numbers don't add up.

Or maybe we should have a FG/Lab/Greens/Ind coalition which would be more unstable and expensive for the country than a stable 2 Party Govt.

Also, maybe the Greens/Lab would get more of their policies enacted in a 2 party Govt. rather than a Rainbow with Independent support.

If that scenario happened and a 2 party Govt. was the realistic option, the electorate would punish the Greens/Lab for not putting the country first and IMO would suffer at an election a couple of months later. The electorate would be wondering why they would be voting twice in the space of a couple of months, ala the 1980's, and would blame them for not sorting out a Govt.

If the Greens/Lab went into Govt. they wouldn't be massacred on going into Govt. with FF in the next election. They would go into the next election based on their Govt. record just as FF have to do.

K-9

nurse_baz wrote:

what did you all make of Bertie's keynote (election manifesto) speech.

Personally I wasn't that impressed, sure it got the FF masses all riled up but tbh I've stopped trusting FF a long way back.

I particularly liked his quip about how FF Will employ the nurses that this countries patients need......sure they can't pay the ones we've got properly and won't take any more to fill the drastic shortages we have right now in some hospitals. where will this cash come from?

Well it was a FF Ard Fheis!

There is a shortage of nurses at Cork maternity hospital at the moment! Seriously, I don't want to believe the spin from the HSE that relocation expenses are delaying the opening but with this health system, I don't know



Where will the cash come from for nurses for the Cork maternity hospital for relocation expenses? I'm not sure, hopefully not from the taxpayer. If I had to relocate my job, I would like to see the answer from my employer when I was looking for relocation expenses.

Hopefully it isn't true. I think people are very sick! pardon the pun! of vested interests in the Health system generally.

There seems to a: it's not my fault, it's their's ethos.

NewDubliner

nurse_baz wrote:

what did you all make of Bertie's keynote (election manifesto) speech.

The announcement that Civil Services would have to use energy-efficient light bulbs is a sham, since almost all offices use low-energy flourescent tubes anyway.

With his Dublin vote slipping away, you'd think he'd have had the good sense to call off the the 'Decentralisation' project, he could have picked up some badly-needed votes.

It's too late now, FF have blown it. Nobody is going to believe any doorstep promises.

Dontico

polls dont really matter. the new gov will be decided on the day. people may start to tick the FF box then remember something on the news about rape victims then decide to tick the FG box.

dublin is starting to go down a spiral of crime. gun violence is on the rise. where i live there has been gun crime up the road, down the road, the road to the left of and the road to the right of me in the past year. so i know i'll be voting for the law and order party. as i would imagine most dublin people that have be effected by crime will.

Good.

Múinteoir

legs11 wrote:

thats bleedin rapid.........!

i hope all the dubs go against the useless gobshyte bertie, he is in charge of our nation for a long time, and its not getting any better. all he does he nutter on nonsense with his trademark smirk......


FACT.

Even if there is a FF meltdown in Dublin, Bertie Ahern will still top the poll in Dublin Central. Sad but true. But at least he may have Patricia McKenna as company!

ISAW

Dontico wrote:

polls dont really matter. the new gov will be decided on the day. people may start to tick the FF box then remember something on the news about rape victims then decide to tick the FG box.

Eh? We have a PR system. It isnt about ticking boxes. Unless you are a no 1 plumper! And no party is campaining for that.

dublin is starting to go down a spiral of crime.

really? Yo can support tish comment can you? In fact I suggest you look at crime stats from ten years ago and compare them to now. With the exception of some violent crime all crime AFAIK is DOWN!

gun violence is on the rise. where i live there has been gun crime up the road, down the road, the road to the left of and the road to the right of me in the past year.

So yu vote based on personal experience? And if burgulary is DOWN in your area that hasnt anythiong to do with the government I suppose? But if it is UP it HAS to do with them? So you are saying for the record if gun crimes decrease you woulf certainly vote FF/PD?

so i know i'll be voting for the law and order party. as i would imagine most dublin people that have be effected by crime will.

Who are they? The PD's ? SF? Maybe you are referring to FG? What is a "law and order" party?

skearon

legs11 wrote:

thats bleedin rapid.........!

i hope all the dubs go against the useless gobshyte bertie, he is in charge of our nation for a long time, and its not getting any better. all he does he nutter on nonsense with his trademark smirk......


FACT.

Fact? Your opinion is not fact

Perhaps you have forgotten about little things such as the peace process, lower taxes, full employment, recycling now at 37% vs 7% in 1997, WEEE implementation, child benefit increases, child supplement, 7,000 more teachers, 45,000 extra 3rd level places since 1997, massive pension and social welfare rises, 700,000 more people at work compared to 1997, 42,000 new socal houses since 1997, €21Billion in NDP to build 160,000 social and affording houses, etc etc etc

"not getting better" ? The real FACTS point to the opposite conclusion.

ballooba

ISAW wrote:

really? Yo can support tish comment can you? In fact I suggest you look at crime stats from ten years ago and compare them to now. With the exception of some violent crime all crime AFAIK is DOWN!

You can quote statistics all you like. It's a favourite past time of Bertie's. You also have to have a look around you. You have to be aware of how many of your friends have been victims of crime. You also have to be ware of how many have reported those crimes.

The fact is that most crime goes unreported. The Gardai don't have time to be dealing with non-serious crime. People have become disillusioned. They just take it on the cheek.

I have reported two crimes in the last twelve months. One was €1,200 worth of damage and the other was €1,600. One was unsolvable so was never written up. The other was dealt with outside the system by the Garda so was never written up.

Most late night assaults would not be reported unless someone was badly injured. A friend was hopped two weeks ago walking up Harcourt St in the early hours. We were right next to a Garda station but we sorted it out ourselves. Most of these type of assaults would never be reported.

ISAW wrote:

Who are they? The PD's ? SF? Maybe you are referring to FG? What is a "law and order" party?

The law and order parties are typically those seen as right of centre. They are the PDs and FG. FG will be getting the lion's share of these votes because the PDs have failed to keep their main promise from last time round.

hellboy99

nurse_baz wrote:

what did you all make of Bertie's keynote (election manifesto) speech.

With his speech I thought he was trying out for a lead roll in a new Braveheart film

I can't see FF being elected this time round, if they are, whoever votes them in are either rich or completely stupid. They have messed up the country big time, what with wasting tax payers money (ie electronic voting machines etc..), the sham of a medical system we have, prices going up on everything and wages not following suit, flood loads of foreign nationals coming in and taking our jobs as they will work for less pay, roads are a joke, justice system is a mess, crime on the way up, the list goes on....

McSandwich

skearon wrote:

Fact? Your opinion is not fact

Perhaps you have forgotten about little things such as the peace process, lower taxes, full employment, recycling now at 37% vs 7% in 1997, WEEE implementation, child benefit increases, child supplement, 7,000 more teachers, 45,000 extra 3rd level places since 1997, massive pension and social welfare rises, 700,000 more people at work compared to 1997, 42,000 new socal houses since 1997, €21Billion in NDP to build 160,000 social and affording houses, etc etc etc

That level of productivity is the least I'd expect after 10 years in power and the benefit of a booming economy with lots of tax money rolling in..

K-9

ballooba wrote:

Most late night assaults would not be reported unless someone was badly injured. A friend was hopped two weeks ago walking up Harcourt St in the early hours. We were right next to a Garda station but we sorted it out ourselves. Most of these type of assaults would never be reported.


The law and order parties are typically those seen as right of centre. They are the PDs and FG. FG will be getting the lion's share of these votes because the PDs have failed to keep their main promise from last time round.

How did you sort it out yourselves? You where next to a Garda station so you could have reported it to the. I take it there where witnesses? If you don't report it then the justice system can't do anything about it.

Then again the courts are full of often petty cases like GBH, that have more to do with drink and drugs than anything else and which are often actually wasting Gardai time.

Non detection of burglaries wasn't an issue under the Rainbow? Let's face it a lot burglaries are going to go unreported and undetected as they have always done in every country. Should we fund Gardai on every corner street 24 hours, IMO no, it would be a waste of taxpayers funds.

There is and always has been a drink culture in Ireland. Maybe it's more obvious now with extra money about. Is that the Govts. fault, no. We are all well educated on the problems of drink, it's a society problem.

Wages are going up, too much in many people's eye affecting productivity. Wages are agreed by social partnership, Govt. , Unions and Business together, it's a consenus approach.

It's easy to blame foreign nationals, which are coming because of the success of Ireland, and many are choosing to stay, despite some quite racist attitudes to them. With low unemployment there a lot of jobs Irish people choose not to do because they are considered beneath them. Fair play to foreign nationals for doing them.

Our roads are a major improvement on 5, never mind 20 years ago and are being delivered on time and on budget.

Productivity is going to be harder and harder to improve now that we are a successful economy. Same problems Germany, France etc. face.

Mtchell McLoughlin, on Q&A tonight actually commended FF on the money that is now being allocated on R&D and was saying how the South is an example for the North on this. Hard to believe I'd agree with SF but there you are. Other European countries, including Holland, are following our lead on Corporation tax.

There are plenty of examples of the glass being half full, with more being done to fill it. The Health system is finally starting to get sorted.

See the HSE have wrote to the Nursing Unions and said if the Cork Maternity Hospital isn't open by Saturday, the 200 new posts created for it will not go ahead. At last they are facing the Unions and showing how self interested they are.

ballooba

Seanies32 wrote:

How did you sort it out yourselves? You where next to a Garda station so you could have reported it to the. I take it there where witnesses? If you don't report it then the justice system can't do anything about it.

I stepped in with the help of a nearby bouncer and pulled them apart. My friend wasn't badly hurt. He didn't want to risk the Gardai lumping him in a cell too. He wanted to get home.

Most assaults don't occur right next to a Garda station anyway. More often than not when I am on a night out in Dublin I see people assaulted.

Seanies32 wrote:

Non detection of burglaries wasn't an issue under the Rainbow? Let's face it a lot burglaries are going to go unreported and undetected as they have always done in every country.

I never mentioned burglaries. The crimes committed on my property were a hit and run on my car and vandalism of my car. I'm talking about people not reporting crime because there is no point but also Gardai not writing stuff up because there is no point. Non-violent crime is not a priority.

ballooba

Seanies32 wrote:

Wages are going up, too much in many people's eye affecting productivity. Wages are agreed by social partnership, Govt. , Unions and Business together, it's a consenus approach.

Fianna Fail has failed to address the imbalance between public and private sector pay rates.

Seanies32 wrote:

It's easy to blame foreign nationals, which are coming because of the success of Ireland, and many are choosing to stay, despite some quite racist attitudes to them. With low unemployment there a lot of jobs Irish people choose not to do because they are considered beneath them. Fair play to foreign nationals for doing them.

Most of these people are working in construction and not export industry. So effectively this is an import. They will take a lot of this money with them in the form of savings when they leave.

Seanies32 wrote:

Our roads are a major improvement on 5, never mind 20 years ago and are being delivered on time and on budget.

This government has been in office for ten years. Fianna Fail has been in government for 17 of the last 20 years. They have failed to provide us with proper rail and road infrastructure when the economy was booming.

Seanies32 wrote:

Mtchell McLoughlin, on Q&A tonight actually commended FF on the money that is now being allocated on R&D and was saying how the South is an example for the North on this.

Fianna Fail is funding this R&D for the benefit of IDA acked foreign multinationals. I would like to see more emphasis on Enterprise Ireland backed indigenous exporters. This is not a policy of Fine Gael as far as I am aware, but I would like it to be. Fianna Fail are poor in terms of supporting indigenous firms who want to think big. Especially in the area of renewables.

ISAW

ballooba wrote:

You can quote statistics all you like.

Any you will ignore researched stats as opposed to your personal experience and opinion?

The fact is that most crime goes unreported.

So what? Most went unreported ten years ago as well? Are you claiming a higher proportion of crime goes un reported now than the same types of crime ten years ago?
prove it!

The Gardai don't have time to be dealing with non-serious crime. People have become disillusioned. They just take it on the cheek.

Assault is not Non serious. it is an inditable offence!

I have reported two crimes in the last twelve months. One was €1,200 worth of damage and the other was €1,600. One was unsolvable so was never written up. The other was dealt with outside the system by the Garda so was never written up.

You couldnt have oficially reported crime and it not be in the stats of official "reported crime". Are you saying the Garda didnt record it and sauid you were wasting your time? That is a serious accusation about a garda not doing their duty!

Most late night assaults would not be reported unless someone was badly injured.

As is true ten years ago. But I note you poicked one of the few crimes that actually INCREASED over the last ten years? Would most frauds not be reported? Or a higher proportion of burgalaries not be reported?

A friend was hopped two weeks ago walking up Harcourt St in the early hours. We were right next to a Garda station but we sorted it out ourselves. Most of these type of assaults would never be reported.

i.e. you disregarded the law and took it into your own hands to do as you pleased? You witnessed a criminal act and didnt follow through on it even though beside a station? So much for respecting "law and order" eh?

The law and order parties are typically those seen as right of centre.

By you r definition. The "police state" may also be called right of centre. And others would say the republicans (who are regardes as far left) "police their own areas and keep order".

They are the PDs and FG. FG will be getting the lion's share of these votes because the PDs have failed to keep their main promise from last time round.

Would that be the 16000 police we now have?