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Poll shows big drop for FF in Dublin
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_Brian_ wrote:I'm convinced pointing the finger is the easiest way of doing a job ,doing the work is the hard part.
Things are going to get hard ,but throwing aways investments in infrastructure now ,is being outright stupid I think
FG have not been elected to govern this country in 25 years. Says a lot about an opposition. Especially when the most imaginative policies on tax/PRSI come from FF.
Reducing tax seem very unimaginative for a party that has had that much time to formulate policy.Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.
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Seanies32 wrote:Interesting article by Robert Watt in the Business Post to. (Not on online though).
But he points out a lot of the reaction to the lastest economic figures is very surprising and lacks balance. People seem to be amazed there could actually be a slowdown or there is a cycle to economic activity.
Some of the figures people are predicting economic crashes on are:- Economic growth going from 7/8% to 5.4% this year and 3.9% in 2008.
- Exchequer receipts up 10.2% for the 1st quarter is considered bad. (These include all taxes, SD, CGT, Corporation tax, PAYE/PRSI)
- House prices flat for last few months. They have actually grown 9.5% in last year. AIB and other surveys are expecting something like 4-6% which I think is more realistic than minus figures or 9.5%.
There are also advantages to the property market slowing. People have been used to short term capital appreciation which is not a realistic expectation in a normal market. Smaller house price increases will help affordability and help 1st time buyers especially with interest rates rises. The increase in mortgage interest relief also has helped as Permanent TSB are now taking this into account for affordability.
The Capital that has been pumped into house construction will also be released into other construction sectors and other industries. Construction workers will not get the massive wage increases that they have got in the last 7/8 years which will help the Govt. with its costs for the National Development Plan and Capital Building programme.
These wage increases also affected wages across the econonomy and thus competitiveness in general.
The Capital that has been invested in Construction for the last 5/6 years will be freed up and invested in other industries.
I'm not saying everything going to be rosy but I don't believe the doomsayers either.
Its not as simple as that. Doomsayers have some facts on the economy.(Interesting read here http://www.finfacts.com/celtictigereconomyireland.htm )
We can argue till the cows come home on the direction of the housing market. That 9.5% growth occurred in first half of last year, its been downhill since.
Never trust any surveys from banks/estate agents/economists paid by them, all independent analysts and international experts like IMF say a crash is imminent from any bubble.
On affordability, from the govt's own budget website, something like only 34% of the workforce earn over 34k a year, 40% of the workforce don't even earn enough to be taxed.
Point being, affordability for FTB who hold the housing pyramid up is gone, who is going to pay for 80,000 housing units, it ain't immigrants unless all of them earn over 34k plus buy as couples and intend to stay here permanently
With exodus of speculators as their capital appreciation is gone, then we have interest rates rising, TRS increases have been wiped out before December, bloomberg reckon the ECB rate will head to 4.5% before end of year from the present 3.75%.
53,000 of the 83,000 jobs created last year were in either construction or public service, a good chunk of rest in retail.
As housing goes downhill so will revenues from income tax, vat, CGT and the magic stamp duty.
Coupled with a conservative 20,000 job loss(90% probability Irish) from 20% of the workforce dependent on construction, finding jobs for 60,000 school leavers\college leavers and hell of alot less money to pay for public service, where will the revenue come from to fill that big hole and pay for capital projects?
It ain't gonna come from the same source of job creation as last year. I suggest as a start the govt can chase those buy-to-let stamp duty evasion brigade and a tax on empty properties will help.0 -
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gurramok wrote:On affordability, from the govt's own budget website, something like only 34% of the workforce earn over 34k a year, 40% of the workforce don't even earn enough to be taxed.
Point being, affordability for FTB who hold the housing pyramid up is gone, who is going to pay for 80,000 housing units, it ain't immigrants unless all of them earn over 34k plus buy as couples and intend to stay here permanently
With exodus of speculators as their capital appreciation is gone, then we have interest rates rising, TRS increases have been wiped out before December.
53,000 of the 83,000 jobs created last year were in either construction or public service, a good chunk of rest in retail.
As housing goes downhill so will revenues from income tax, vat, CGT and the magic stamp duty.
Coupled with a conservative 20,000 job loss(90% probability Irish) from 20% of the workforce dependent on construction, finding jobs for 60,000 school leavers\college leavers and hell of alot less money to pay for public service, where will the revenue come from to fill that big hole and pay for capital projects?
It ain't gonna come from the same source of job creation as last year. I suggest as a start the govt can chase those buy-to-let stamp duty evasion brigade and a tax on empty properties will help.
No problem with chasing stamp duty evasion. The Revenue is starting to target evasion schemes and they are contributing more and more to tax receipts.
On FTB's, the figures you quote, 34% and 40% haven't drastically changed in the last 3/4 years. I'm not saying the construction boom is going to continue just that it is returning to normal levels. If Prices only go up by 3/4% they will still be affordable for the same amount of FTB as before.
TRS increases may have been wiped out but if mortgage companies (Permanent TSB have started doing it) factor the affordability that the increase gives, this will also help FTB purchasing houses.
Everybody knows, or should know that economic booms end. Thats not the present Govts. fault.
FG/Lab are proposing tax cuts to 18%. Seems they are ill advised as well.Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.
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