2006 census results published

gurramok

Thought i'd bring thread up again as proper census results are out today http://www.cso.ie/census/Census2006_Principal_Demographic_Results.htm

Apparently 10% of the population are of foreign nationality with barely 63,000 Poles resident.

Biggest non-Irish groups are out of 419,733 people approx:
EU 25 - 275,000 Non-EU 145,000

British (including N.I.) - 122,000
Polish - 63,000
Lithuanian - 24,000
Nigerian - 16,000
Latvia - 13,000
USA - 12,000
Chinese - 11,000
Germany - 10,000

Not stated- 44,000

As a good few of those British will have Irish connections(including my own recently returned cousins), more anglo than anything else

From my rusty maths, it appears roughly around 137,000 are of eastern europe origin including new EU countries plus Romania, Russia, Ukraine.

This figure seems to be a hell of alot less than that reported in the media

What astounds me, where did the media get their figures of 200,000 Poles from?..Sensationalism??

Delboy05

gurramok wrote:

British (including N.I.) - 122,000
Polish - 63,000
Lithuanian - 24,000
Nigerian - 16,000
Latvia - 13,000
USA - 12,000
Chinese - 11,000
Germany - 10,000

...............This figure seems to be a hell of alot less than that reported in the media

What astounds me, where did the media get their figures of 200,000 Poles from?..Sensationalism??

do you really, honestly believe that there are just 11,000 chinese in ireland!!!!We know from the english schools that there are 15,000 students alone. How many of them have gone back home? And how many more adult chinese are there on top of the student numbers....estimates I read a few weeks back from some paper was that there are 100,000 chinese in the south.

And only 16,000 nigerians!!!!....despite the nigerians being the largest group of asylum seekers every year for the past 10 or so years. And practically all asylum seekers are allowed remain despite the vast vast majority failing to win their cases.

And only 63,000 poles!!! despite near 200,000 of them applying for PPS numbers!!! I did'nt know that Polands economy had taken off to such an extent that there were now jobs galore over there and everybody was returning home!!!
BBC newsnight did'nt find this a few months ago when it ran a special report on how polish companies are having to bring in Ukranian and Moldovan workers to do what jobs exist as so many 'working age' ploes have left the country. And only Ireland, the Uk and Sweden accepted them up to a few months ago, within the EU.

This census has proven to be a joke. Either:
a/ non-nationals have not filled out the census forms
b/ the figures have been doctored to fool us into thinking there is no influx of non-nationals in ireland when the dog on the street can clearly see there is.

Immigration is the biggest lie in Ireland right now, and the irish people are no where near to finding out the truth of the scale of this issue...and wont be allowed to find out

purple'n'gold

And only 16,000 nigerians!!!!....despite the nigerians being the largest group of asylum seekers every year for the past 10 or so years. And practically all asylum seekers are allowed remain despite the vast vast majority failing to win their cases.


How do we have that incredible amount of asylum seekers from Nigeria? There are no direct connections between this country and Nigeria. Therefore they have to come here from a third country. Why are they not returned to that third country immediately? I was under the impression that asylum seekers had to request asylum in the first EU country they land in.

Zambia

What immigrant in there right mind answers the census properly :rolleyes:

16,000 legal Nigerians I can believe same goes for the chinese figure.

If i was a illegal immgrant or had any reason to fear authority there is no way I would answer any census questions.

Moriarty

gurramok wrote:

What astounds me, where did the media get their figures of 200,000 Poles from?..Sensationalism??

From memory, the 200,000 poles figure was taken from the amount of PPS numbers issued to Polish Nationals since enlargement. Apparently many of them don't stay here too long.

Delboy05

Moriarty wrote:

From memory, the 200,000 poles figure was taken from the amount of PPS numbers issued to Polish Nationals since enlargement. Apparently many of them don't stay here too long.

'Apparently' !!! I find it hard to believe that 2 in every 3 Poles that came to ireland to work legally, have since left.

oscarBravo

...but you find it easy to believe that the CSO doctored the census results.




O-kaaay...

Zambia

Delboy05 wrote:

'Apparently' !!! I find it hard to believe that 2 in every 3 Poles that came to ireland to work legally, have since left.

They could have gone to the north or the UK claimed Tax numbers there and on again wherever work takes them. Besides that is is immatieral how many there are to the man on the street there is no limiting or increasing their numbers.

These figures do not seem to add up at all , however I have nothing to prove them wrong at present.

Zambia

oscarBravo wrote:

...but you find it easy to believe that the CSO doctored the census results.

O-kaaay...

I would doubt they did however I just dont see them counting everyone of dubious immigration status. There also could be a sense of mistrust from polish nationals about the census where if there was 10 poeple in a house I think they would not have filled out the whole form including everyone in the house.

In cases where one pole was sub letting rooms to the other nine etc...

Delboy05

purplengold wrote:

How do we have that incredible amount of asylum seekers from Nigeria? There are no direct connections between this country and Nigeria. Therefore they have to come here from a third country. Why are they not returned to that third country immediately? I was under the impression that asylum seekers had to request asylum in the first EU country they land in.

we have far more than 16,000 nigerians in ireland. They make up about 60% or so of asylum seekers every year, and allthough asylum figures are down to 4-5,000 a year in total now, around 2000/2001 they were running at 15-20,000. And with practically no deportations ever from ireland and so many availing of the Irish-born baby law before it was judged, and nearly all the rest availing of the amnesty after the law came in ....it's easy to see why their population is so high.
As to why nigerians were ever allowed claim asylum here in the 1st place, considering the amount of safe counties they passed through first...thats a question for the minister of justice and the dept. And I've never heard 1 proper reason why it was happen and still is allowed to continue.

Too many bleeding hearts running the system probably...pity we did'nt have a John Howard type character in charge of that dept. for the last 10 years ...;)

lisnageragh

We actually Have

Around 1 million Migrants here upto 2006 alone.

The Census states it.

But it is hidden.

Look at the empty housing figures? 25% empty houses in Kerry etc?

I guess a few people just dint fill in the census!

According to the census under Religion, it shows a figure of 3.7 Irish people who stated there religious status.

However nearly 1 million (997611) people stated there religion. However they also stated the country they came from. And Guess what it isnt Ireland!

So in fact we have 1 million migrants here upto 2006 which is really 06re than 20% of the population or every 2-3 in 10 people.

http://www.cso.ie/census/documents/PDR%202006%20Tables%2031-40.pdf Scroll down to page 7

oscarBravo

lisnageragh wrote:

However nearly 1 million (997611) people stated there religion. However they also stated the country they came from. And Guess what it isnt Ireland!

I can't see that figure in the document you linked.

InFront

lisnageragh wrote:

We actually Have
Around 1 million Migrants here upto 2006 alone.
The Census states it.
But it is hidden...
However nearly 1 million (997611) people stated there religion. However they also stated the country they came from. And Guess what it isnt Ireland!
So in fact we have 1 million migrants here upto 2006

I see that page, but whatever way you're doing the maths it isn't correct. There were a total of approx. 420,000 people in the state on that night who answered that question and were of a nationality that wasn't Irish. A further approx. 46,000 just did not reply, Irish or not.

Where are you getting one million from?

Hobbes

Zambia232 wrote:

I would doubt they did however I just dont see them counting everyone of dubious immigration status.

You should read up on how surveys work. A census is basically a survey with a larger sample. So the chances of a large deviation is quite slim to none with such a large sample of people even if not everyone in the country fills it out.

I wonder if the census had come out and showed that the figures were much much higher would the same people still be going on about some conspiracy?

MontgomeryClift

Hobbes wrote:

You should read up on how surveys work. A census is basically a survey with a larger sample. So the chances of a large deviation is quite slim to none with such a large sample of people even if not everyone in the country fills it out.

It depends on the number of forms not returned. If X forms are not returned then we're left guessing how many of these belong to foreigners. And if they're less likely to return the form then you can't just assume the unreturned are in the same ratio of foreign/Irish as the returned forms.

Does the census tell us how many forms were issued and not returned? Maybe it does but I'm not seeing it there.

OPENROAD

Delboy05 wrote:

we have far more than 16,000 nigerians in ireland. They make up about 60% or so of asylum seekers every year, and allthough asylum figures are down to 4-5,000 a year in total now, around 2000/2001 they were running at 15-20,000. And with practically no deportations ever from ireland and so many availing of the Irish-born baby law before it was judged, and nearly all the rest availing of the amnesty after the law came in ....it's easy to see why their population is so high.
As to why nigerians were ever allowed claim asylum here in the 1st place, considering the amount of safe counties they passed through first...thats a question for the minister of justice and the dept. And I've never heard 1 proper reason why it was happen and still is allowed to continue.

Too many bleeding hearts running the system probably...pity we did'nt have a John Howard type character in charge of that dept. for the last 10 years ...;)

And hope you are in favor of the Americans kicking out the illegal Irish?

purple'n'gold

Absolutely, I am 100% in favour of the Americans kicking out the illegal Irish. Illegal Irish have no right to be in the USA and should be sent home immediately.

Scigaithris

Hobbes wrote:

You should read up on how surveys work. A census is basically a survey with a larger sample. So the chances of a large deviation is quite slim to none with such a large sample of people even if not everyone in the country fills it out.

For practical purposes, this is generally the case (but is a complex issue in methodology, which may produce substantial errors for underrepresented groups).

A census is an attempt to enumerate the total population, but historically, a national census fails to accomplish this. Even over in the USA during their decade-driven census programme, the last reported to have cost them over one billion USD, the 50 state response rates ranged from just over 50 percent to a high in the 70 percentiles (see US Census Bureau for precise figures on the 2000 census). Because of the low return rates in some states, they do validation studies to determine the error between respondants and non-respondents, especially in the lower reporting states.

What may be of interest to this discussion is that just before every US census there is a flurry of scholarly papers by US demographers, political scientists, and related methodologists to get the US to drop the census method and replace it with a rigorous (and less costly) sampling of the US population. The US Census Bureau agreed with a sample in place of a census in a postion paper issued before 2000 (but it would require an amendment to the US Constitution, which now requires a census).

One of the limitations of the current census is that some groups (e.g., lower SES, racial and ethnic, illegal immigrants) have been notoriously underreported, and that a rigourous sampling method would capture (estimate and project) the statistical significance of these groups better than an expensive attempt at a census (followed by validation studies to identify representativeness, as well as error for some underrepresented groups). But in the past, their Republican Party has opposed this and their Democratic Party as favoured it (the latter tending to represent the underrepresented groups in their political platforms).

For example, one underrepresented group in past US census taking has been Native Americans, that have a strong tendency not to return the census forms mailed to them. Until the 1980 census, former validation studies were conducted by sending census field representatives to the Native American reservations (both open and closed), as well as where they thought they might live off the reservations, which can be quite substantial (According to their Bureau of Indian Affairs, there are an estimated 50,000 Native Americans in Los Angeles alone). Before 1980 a person was determined to be Native American in validation studies by observations of the census field representatives. With the 1980 US census, Native Americans were allowed to identify themselves to the field worker. Ironically, the American news media erroneously reported that there had been a Native American population explosion between the 1970 and 1980 census, when in fact it was later determined to be due to the differences in methods; i.e., field worker observation vs. self-report.

In concluding, what Hobbes says about the size of the sample in most cases is useful, but in some cases can also be subject to error of underrepresented groups (for some reason) that were excluded from the enumeration in statistically significant numbers; e.g., would immigrants with different cultural, political, racial, ethnic, or gender differences be less likely or more likely to cooperate (or be encouraged) in a census?

oscarBravo

I've split this discussion off from the original thread - it's drifting off-topic for it, and deserves a thread of its own anyway.

Hobbes

It depends on the number of forms not returned. If X forms are not returned then we're left guessing how many of these belong to foreigners. And if they're less likely to return the form then you can't just assume the unreturned are in the same ratio of foreign/Irish as the returned forms.

Actually you can. Someone who does statistics could explain it better but there is generally a certain level of sample that gives certain number deviations.

Many of the surveys of things like "76% of Irish like potatoes" (you get the drift) that would be a random sample of 1,000 people.

Scigaithris wrote:

e.g., would immigrants with different cultural, political, racial, ethnic, or gender differences be less likely or more likely to cooperate (or be encouraged) in a census?

That's the million euro question. I have yet to see evidence to it.

TBH the Irish census is 1000 times better then the US census. I was in the US during the census. The person who dropped it off just handed it to me, no instructions said someone would be around to pick it up later. Filled it out and no one turned up to pick it up. I ended up posting it in.

Irish one, guy turns up at the door hands it to me and explains in detail what I need to do, they also confirmed the person who picked up the census and the address.

Nevyn

Delboy05 wrote:

'Apparently' !!! I find it hard to believe that 2 in every 3 Poles that came to ireland to work legally, have since left.

Most are coming here for 2 to 3 years to work and then going homewith enough money saved to buy a house or start a busniess.

This is relfected in the fact that a school has been set up on dublin for polish children who are bing taught through polish the polish criculum so that there is no gap in thier education when they return to poland with their parents.

Delboy05

OPENROAD wrote:

And hope you are in favor of the Americans kicking out the illegal Irish?

100% in favour....let them come home to ireland and work where we need them. if they still want to live in america, apply for visas and dont try and be queue jumpers....

Far Corfe

11,000 Chinese in all of Ireland

Thats got to be bulls**t.

39% of new houses built between 02 and 06 unoccupied we are also told.

Guess a lot of people avoided the census. Must have been the worse census ever carried out in Ireland.

grahamo

Far Corfe wrote:

11,000 Chinese in all of Ireland

Thats got to be bulls**t.

39% of new houses built between 02 and 06 unoccupied we are also told.

Guess a lot of people avoided the census. Must have been the worse census ever carried out in Ireland.

I definitely don't believe that. I reckon there are a serious amount of unregistered landlords plus a lot of illegal immigrants afraid to fill out the census form.

I think a lot of the "un occupied" houses were occupied but people for various reasons couldn't or wouldn't answer the door.

I remember a thread here on the census for example where one boardsie related his story regarding the enumerators pathetic attempts to contact appartments.

The lifestyle today made things very difficult.

I'm of the view that the number of unoccupied houses is over estimated and am doubtfull that many enumerators went to the bother of using the law to seek tthe occupiers of some houses.It would be far simpler to just list the house as unoccupied/no response.
Enumerators weren't exactly being paid enough to make them so enthusiasticas to chase these things up I would think and I've not heard of any or too many court cases/fines.

Hobbes

that figure is going to hurt those areas later down the line when they start budgetting to see who needs resources sooner. Obviously those new estates don't need schools soon as there is no one there yet.

ballooba

A 15% level of vacancy for housing units does not surprise me. I know of several large apartment buildings in prime locations in Dubin which have been empty for extended periods. One on the corner of Church Street and North King Street for example.

I would also expect that the level of vacancy is highest in areas where Section 23 is available. There is nothing wrong with those houses. Businesses don't necessarily need to let them out to get benefit from them however.

MontgomeryClift

Hobbes wrote:

Actually you can. Someone who does statistics could explain it better but there is generally a certain level of sample that gives certain number deviations.

How come? I don't see how you can apply the same ratio to the unreturned forms as the returned, if a certain group is less likely to participate than another.

J.S. Pill

Tristrame wrote:

Enumerators weren't exactly being paid enough to make them so enthusiasticas to chase these things up I would think and I've not heard of any or too many court cases/fines.

The guy I had last year was practically stalking us - He just would not give up!

oscarBravo

Far Corfe wrote:

11,000 Chinese in all of Ireland

Thats got to be bulls**t.

Doubtless you'll now produce a study that was more exactingly performed than the national census, complete with methodology, to back up that assertion.

Right?

is_that_so

My own enumerator on this one also had an awful lot of problems tracking people down and ended up doing it 7 days a week. I am inclined to believe the effect of empty units.

I have a question on the census.

When will we see the meaty stuff on population growth per region, including towns and so forth?