Thunderstorms

SpitfireIV

Gone extremely dark, gloomy and thundery looking to the SW of me here, just waiting for a rumble from it.

Hal1

My firefox wiget is reporting a couple of TS for tomorrow. If conditions are in favour of it, it should be a good show.

darkman2

Well its just nuisance value cloud here atm and the convergance zone is already obvious and its to our north. Im unsure about the East today but the midlands and especially the North are going to have a lively afternoon!

Snowbie

Yep them showers up north going all morning,although this time yesterday there was nothing in the midlands till after 2ish.If something does break out we could expect a shower or two as we have our west wind.Temp is at convective level as well as cape and LI decent.Dp and humidity favourable.There could be hope for an evening storm.

darkman2

Anything is possible once the heat gets to work however we really needed to be in the convergence zone. Hopefully something will break later in the afternoon though I would not not say were in a favourable posistion - if we were 30 miles further north then the wind would be NW - perfect - but we are on the wrong side.

Snowbie

Well yes anything is possible,but its the difference in upper air temps thats the key to development of CB or towering cumulus if we need to get our homegrown.Thats why i think when upper air temps cool a tad later in evening we might get a development.Something similar to Tristrame last evening.

darkman2

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_vis.html


There is delvelopment to the SW in terms of more upper level cloud so we are really depending on this now I think. It has typical thundery charred signiture over it but will it develope in time?

I doubt it darkman.

Down here I see no energy in the clouds,no sign of anything cb like at all.
Just bog standard clouds in a south westerly.
It isn't even as warm as yesterday-so not a whole lot of energy there.

Different story up North of course with some lovely convergence/instability.

If you said to me on friday that by wenesday we'd have had no rain at all here,I wouldnt have believed you and thats the way its panned out-dry with a lot of warm sunshine.

darkman2

Tristrame wrote:

I doubt it darkman.

Down here I see no energy in the clouds,no sign of anything cb like at all.
Just bog standard clouds in a south westerly.
It isn't even as warm as yesterday-so not a whole lot of energy there.

Different story up North of course with some lovely convergence/instability.

If you said to me on friday that by wenesday we'd have had no rain at all here,I wouldnt have believed you and thats the way its panned out-dry with a lot of warm sunshine.

The cloud im talking about should be to the west of you. I know the cloud you mean. Ive it here. This should look different as it is the result of inland convection. Not saying anthing will come of it but if it could combine with the front strddling the North of the country. That would be the ideal scenario anyway but we will just have to wait and see.

darkman2

Yup we have some development now on radar to the SW. Some echoes starting to appear.

Snowbie

This is the one to watch,that should develop,id be very surprised if it did'nt.
Clear blue skies here now and temp has risen,but i see cumulus now over mountains.

arctictree

Looks like some convection building up over Clare/Tipp. Don't know if it has the intensity though to keep building and reach the east coast. Although the North looks very wet at this stage.

A

darkman2

Major flooding being reported North of the border. If we get anything it will pale in comparison.

darkman2

Small precip to our SW now so its possible a few evening storms may develope but they are having a torrid time up north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

rc28

Is there much lightning in those torrential showers up north? They are very slow moving so flooding is a certainty-that explains the metoffice warnings.

Snowbie

Definite convection looking to the SW in the Dublin area.No towers just filling cumulus.Its all science now,if upper temps cool enough there be no problem in convection exploding but that remains to be seen.Evening would be promising here if the likes of the midlands start producing but very sporadic light showers atm there.

rc28

Some serious flooding in NI now, take a lok at these pics:
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/19/260796/ShowThread.aspx#260796

rc28

:eek:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6745285.stm

darkman2

There in a bit of trouble up there now with up to 100mm of rain forcast tomorrow and Thursday. There will be very heavy rain tomorrow and the risk of further thunderstorms. Meanwhile the storms will continue will into this evening. Check out the latest radar.

Gonzo

hard to believe thats just a 2 hour drive away and here its another warm sunny beautifull day

rc28

darkman2 wrote:

There in a bit of trouble up there now with up to 100mm of rain forcast tomorrow and Thursday. There will be very heavy rain tomorrow and the risk of further thunderstorms. Meanwhile the storms will continue will into this evening. Check out the latest radar.

100mm!! Will that all be from t-storms, what's keepeing them sitting over them like that?

Quite a bit of cb development in evidence over the south of the Wicklow mts now.

darkman2

rc28 wrote:

100mm!! Will that all be from t-storms, what's keepeing them sitting over them like that?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070612.html


Its not only NI btw, we are going to get drenched aswell with t-storms or longer periods of rain.


This is because there is going to be a big collision over the next few days between two different airmasses and we are right in the middle.

darkman2

Tristrame wrote:

Quite a bit of cb development in evidence over the south of the Wicklow mts now.

Still nothing of substance on radar.

Snowbie

Cumulus clouds starting to tower all around here now and to my SW.No CBs yet.
I wouldn be surprised Tristrame if the mtns get a downpour soon.
Edit can see some explosive activity over mtns now.

rc28

darkman2 wrote:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070612.html


Its not only NI btw, we are going to get drenched aswell with t-storms or longer periods of rain.


This is because there is going to be a big collision over the next few days between two different airmasses and we are right in the middle.

Excellent:D
BTW can anyone tell me why this site suddenly requires a password?:
http://www.meteo.fr/special/PI/OPIC_MF/France/index.htm

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

Cumulus clouds starting to tower all around here now and to my SW.No CBs yet.
I wouldn be surprised Tristrame if the mtns get a downpour soon.
Edit can see some explosive activity over mtns now.

The clouds certainly going up fast here alright:)

rc28

Sky has gone very messy-looking here. Small light showers have cropped up all around from darkening cumulus. Drops falling from one right now- but nothing much right now. I can see some proper well defined cumulus bubbling up to my south though.
Couple of pics to give you an idea:
P1000800 (Large).JPG
P1000803 (Large).JPG
P1000805 (Large).JPG

darkman2

Normally a prelude to storms but we would have prefered to have seen that earlier in the afternoon tbh. Could still happen of course.

darkman2

The CB's are rocketing up here - but is it too late?