Who will make up the next coalition?

Jonny Arson

What do you think will be the next coalition and how many seats do you think the parties will win?

Rough guesstimation from me....

FF - 67
FG - 43
Lab - 23
Green - 12
SF - 8
PD - 5
Other - 8

FF/PD/Ind - No
FG/Lab/Green/Ind - Possible
FF/Green/Ind - Most Likely
FF/SF/Ind - Unlikely
FF/Lab - Possible
can't see any other combinations as viable

FF/Lab would be most definite possibility, numbers will be there but it could well be political suicide for Labour to hop into bed with FF again after 1992 - if they did they won't get my vote in 2012 or whenever anyway.

It will take a very good day and campaign for the rainbow of FG/Lab/Green with Independents to make up the next government but you cant rule it out.

With FF cosying up to the Greens with their sudden interest in the environment we know where FF are looking towards for the next government. Will the Greens jump at the chance to go into government with FF? It's hard to tell. They haven't ruled out anything so it is very possible but Sargeant has said he won't lead them into a FF/Green government and won't work with Bertie Ahern. Do the Greens feel there will get bad PR and backlash going into government with FF? Possibly.

It's a close call, still hard to predict but at the moment I think FF/Green is the most likely government.

brianthebard

Why have you ruled out another FF/PD coalition? It might not be something many people here want to see but I think its still a possibility. Atm I think FF's fortunes will rest to a large degree on how they deal with the nurses strike. I wonder what the chances are of a FG/PD/Green or other. At this stage its too early to predict coalitions, most parties would jump to get into any sort of government at this stage.

The_Minister

I think that you are very-much underestimating how many seats FF will get.

Time Magazine

You're underestimating FG's gains, I think (and hope).

Remember prior to 2002, FG had 54 seats. Their current value of 32 is seriously undervalued. The proportional representation (as opposed to absolute representation) really, really hurt FG in 2002. FG will at least 45 seats in the upcoming General Election, possibly going to 50.

But I still think the government will be FF/Lab.

mike65

FF/Lab followed by FF/PG followed by FG/Lab/Greens

Mike.

The_Minister

I also think that the estimate for independents is completely off. Independents are going to be the big losers in this election, there is too much public excitement about it.

I think that you are underestimating the PDs (It's OK, everyone does;)). Don't forget, in the last election it was commom wisdom that the PDs would be lucky to come back with two seats.
They increased their total to eight.

jank

PD's will get decimated in the election. 4 seats will be good for them

The defiantes will be this..

FF will lose seats...but how many?
FG will gain seats...but how many?
Greens will gain alot of seats..but how many?

I think the greens will decide this election and how many extra seats can FG regain.If it is in the mid late teens then its rainbow all the way.

DublinWriter

jank wrote:

PD's will get decimated in the election. 4 seats will be good for them

I agree. Harney - unpopular. McDowell - uber unpopular. They will retain their seats in their respective constituencies, but I think they will be overtaken by SF as a party in terms of seats, the shame of which will force McDowell to resign as party leader with Liz O'Donnell taking over.

I think Labour will be the 'kingmakers' no matter what happens.

But Rabbitte is in a no-win situation - if he flip-flops on his 'no coalition with FF' statements, he will alienate elements within his party, if he doesn't go into an FF coalition when FG don't have enough seats then he also will alienate elements within his party. Either way, he'll 'burst' the party within 12 months of the next election.

SeanW

I'm hoping for a FG/Labour coalition, followed by an FG/Lab/Green.

Realisitcally though I think it will be FF/PD/Ind. Because people just don't learn >_<

brianthebard

DublinWriter wrote:

I agree. Harney - unpopular. McDowell - uber unpopular.

Unpopular with who? They are a small party that represents a certain section of the population and while I may not like them they seem to know how to please their voters.

The_Minister

SeanW wrote:

FG/Lab/Green.

I don't understand why people seem to think that this is a good idea.
The longest that Fine Gael and Labour have ever lasted was 38-months.
They have never, ever in the history of Ireland been re-elected.
Thats without the added instability of the Greens.
I really don't understand how people think it would work.

brianthebard

The_Minister wrote:

I don't understand why people seem to think that this is a good idea.
The longest that Fine Gael and Labour have ever lasted was 38-months.
They have never, ever in the history of Ireland been re-elected.
Thats without the added instability of the Greens.
I really don't understand how people think it would work.

Its kind of a "wouldn't it be great if" situation. I won't go so far as to say its a pipe dream, but the more parties or individuals you bring into power the less stable the government that's created will be, no matter what parties they are. Personally I would like to see labour in government ideologically at least, but I don't know if they have the right people to be in power. Of course they won't get in on their own so there will hopefully be someone else to keep them in check.

The_Minister

tbh, I just got the horrors today about it. I heard some local-paper Labour columnist say that Fine Gael + Labour + Greens + Independents might be in government next time, and that he was looking forward to it. I couldn't see that government lasting more than half a year. I was shocked that he thought it was a viable alternative.

Múinteoir

The_Minister wrote:

I don't understand why people seem to think that this is a good idea.
The longest that Fine Gael and Labour have ever lasted was 38-months.
They have never, ever in the history of Ireland been re-elected.
Thats without the added instability of the Greens.

There was also a time when it was core Fianna Fáil policy not to form coalition governments. Times have changed.

brianthebard

That's the worst comparision you could have made. Just because one party has managed to get around to making coalitions does not mean that other parties are now suitable partners in government.

Jonny Arson

brianthebard wrote:

Why have you ruled out another FF/PD coalition? It might not be something many people here want to see but I think its still a possibility. Atm I think FF's fortunes will rest to a large degree on how they deal with the nurses strike. I wonder what the chances are of a FG/PD/Green or other. At this stage its too early to predict coalitions, most parties would jump to get into any sort of government at this stage.

FF will lose seats, PDs will lose seats. If FF lose less than 10 seats it will be a very good campaign for them under the circumstances - I know for fact anyway they are getting slaughtered on the doorsteps in Dublin and a couple polls, ratings etc. i've seen indicate the likelihood of 5 seats losses in the capital alone, possibly more and I haven't hit on outside Dublin from what I hear are more losses expected. 5 seats will be solid return for the PDs, some think they'll get 3 but they've a history of being underestimated before an election which is why I come to 5.
FF won't get more than 70 anyway, add 5 PD seats, take a decline in Independents no FF/PD coalition - it won't happen.

The_Minister wrote:

I think that you are very-much underestimating how many seats FF will get.

Well I'd think you would be very much overestimating how many seats FF will will pocket going by the tone of that post as I beleive my figure is relatively conservative so we'll agree to disagree! Out of interest, how many seats you betting FF taking?

Just on your point of independents Minister, my figure for Other includes 2 Socialist TDs so likewise I expect this to be a bad election for Indys. Unless the Greens have their ''Green Tide'' (I think they will get it!) Independents are unlikely to sufficient numbers to play a role in the next government.

Ibid wrote:

You're underestimating FG's gains, I think (and hope).

Remember prior to 2002, FG had 54 seats. Their current value of 32 is seriously undervalued. The proportional representation (as opposed to absolute representation) really, really hurt FG in 2002. FG will at least 45 seats in the upcoming General Election, possibly going to 50.

Oh I very much hope I'm underestimating FG's gains so we'll have no more ****wits running the country but I'm really failing to see FG hitting any more than 45 - and yes I did take FG's natural amount of seats into consideration.

Marcus.Aurelius

I just want a different bunch in power. I have no liking for any party. I can see that Bertie and co have had power for too long. His hands are in so many pockets and his pockets have so many hands in them he couldn't do anything useful if he tried, such is the scale of corruption draggin down the FF party.

In some ways, it would be good if they were re-elected. They got into power at a time when the govt before them had kick started the new tiger. As usual the new FF govt praised themselves and took the glory and whittled it all away into corruption and scandal, we have little to show for the money the country had. And now, if we vote in a new bunch, they will inherit this lacklustre disaster that FF have left as their inheritance. If Bertie gets back into power, then people would blame him for the mess he has created for the next 5 years. A dying economy, held up by jobs in low-skilled areas like construction, losing multinationals every week, losing our knowledge driven economy. When the construction industry fails, we will have nothing!

Cue cutbacks, heavier tax, recession and mass emigration. And the thing is, the 35% of the country that are morons will vote them back in anyway.

kenco

IMO the May election will be inconclusive with FF losing heavily and hitting low 60s in seats. Even with the unlikely FF/Lab that government would only just get over the 83 seat line and FF may decide that they have taken their kicking and that a second election would focus the electorate on a choice between the two main blocks (i.e. FF/PD and FG/Lab + poss Green). If this were to happen the Independants, etc would get squeezed and the electorate one not have the apetite for more uncertainly (possible economic issues, etc) and would plump for one block or the other. This scenario may well appeal to FG as well...

That said the lure of Mercs may be too much for Labour!

Chakar

maoleary wrote:

And the thing is, the 35% of the country that are morons will vote them back in anyway.

I take exception to that in the 2002 election, FF secured forty percent of the vote. It might well decrease, but don't be so sure.

Múinteoir

brianthebard wrote:

That's the worst comparision you could have made. Just because one party has managed to get around to making coalitions does not mean that other parties are now suitable partners in government.

It wasn't meant to be a comparison. :rolleyes: It was purely highlighting the point of how much things has changed in Irish politics in the last twenty years and that just because certain things were a dead cert in the past, doesn't make them so now.

Solair

Well if it were a truely democratic decision, we'd actually end up with a FF/FG coalition based on the maths!!
I wonder when that will ever happen.

ninty9er

Minority Government...any takers????

But I would agree that coalition is not the best situation for any country in a situation like ours. The possibilities for in house arguments destabilising or even causing the fall of a government isn't something a large multi-national for example is going to want to face the uncertainty of.

Spoke with a junior minister yesterday who thinks FF/PD/Green is likely otherwise FF/PD again. This was after I had told him I don't believe that coalitions are as Dessie O'Malley put it: "In the national interest".

GabharBrean

Amazing. Every post in this section is the same. Don't mention Sinn Fein. Maybe they'll do away. Reality. After this election (and the recent election in the North) Sinn Fein will be the third largest party on this Island.

brianthebard

But not in the part that matters to our government.

GabharBrean

brianthebard wrote:

But not in the part that matters to our government.

Typical partionist mentality. Come May there will be an assembly in the North. It will have to enforce all aspects of theGood Friday Agreement, including North/South bodies. "Your" government will be dealing legislatively and otherwise with Sinn Fein, the DUP, etc. The days of splendid isolation are over. Sinn Fein reprsentatives in both assemblies will straddle this process one way or another.

Hopefully in the future the DUP and UUP (etc.) can become more fully involved in politics and social aspects on a Islandwide basis, putting an end forever to the cozy coterie politics and polemics of present day Ireland.;)

DublinWriter

GabharBrean wrote:

Hopefully in the future the DUP and UUP (etc.) can become more fully involved in politics and social aspects on a Islandwide basis,

Howaya GabharBrean, what's the weather like in La-La-Land at the minute? It's crackin' here in Dublin.

Ulster9

Amazing. Every post in this section is the same. Don't mention Sinn Fein. Maybe they'll do away. Reality. After this election (and the recent election in the North) Sinn Fein will be the third largest party on this Island.

Agree.Sinn Fein may surprise a few.I suspect all their current TDs will be returned with the real prospect of doubling or more their current representation.The mainstream parties like to play down SinnFein support and wish it away but i suspect after this election things may be different.I think Sinn Fein ability to state that it represent many people in the four corners of Ireland leaves the partitionest parties in the south feeling a little guilty.

GabharBrean

DublinWriter wrote:

Howaya GabharBrean, what's the weather like in La-La-Land at the minute? It's crackin' here in Dublin.

How's about ye. Haven't been to La-La_Land, so don't know . Do know that the awld Dooblin wit isn't what it used to be. Heatstroke maybe?

Also, you'll find old Paisley and Gerry are very pragmatic. When it comes to taking care of their constituents, they're among the best in the business. The all Ireland economic and social demension will have an impact on daily lives. As a Nobel peace prize winner from Derry said: "borders are all in the mind" (paraphrased). Economics and real-politic will whittle away at old mypoic prejudices in both jurisdictions.

Welcome the real world. And try to keep in the shade. :cool:

DublinWriter

GabharBrean wrote:

Also, you'll find old Paisley and Gerry are very pragmatic. When it comes to taking care of their constituents, they're among the best in the business.

This is very true. They were incredibly pragmatic when Westminster outlined the possible scenario of them losing their nicely salaried MLA positions and having water rates thrust down the neck of their constituents.

While it may be off-topic, I will say this about the Stormont Government - it may have wings and an engine, but at the moment it's still sitting on the tarmac. I'll only applaud when I see it in the air at cruising altitude and I'll be positively cock-a-hoop when it touches down at its intended destination.

I can guarantee you now that no political party in the south would have any truck with having SF in a coalition partnership. FF would be the most likely to go into coalition with SF, but it would cause a fault-line to appear within FF that would turn into a schism before very long.

Don't get me wrong, SF is an incredibly sharp media-savvy political machine, but they now have the reputation of being political poison. Both the UUP and SDLP were almost decimated by their association with them. The DUP doesn't have to think twice as it's the only Unionist game in town these days. It's just a shame that the moderates such as Trimble had to be sacrificed at this particular political alter for a deal to be ultimately forged.

While I do admire both Adams and McGuiness for not rabble-rousing their people in the way Paisley did throughout the 60's/70's, there's a new middle-class generation working it's way up the party ranks (Mary Lou Mc Donald & Cillian Forde) who I think will sanitise the party from its current close ties with working-class militant-republicanism in about 10/15 years time.

The SF of today reminds me a lot of the FF of the 1920's. When Dev came to power in the early 1930's, he visited a small Kerry town where on one side of the street was lined up a salute from an Garda Síochána, and on t'other was a salute made of up IRA volunteers. Dev inspected the IRA volunteers and totally ignored the guards, yet only a few years later he had many of the saluters of that day in Kilmainham and cracked down arguably more ruthlessly on the IRA than Collins ever did.

Such is politics, my friend.

GabharBrean

DW, jaysus, the sun in Dublin must be very strong. Decimated SDLP. Sanitised SF. The SDLP are implacable foes of SF. More people vote for SF than for the SDLP. It's that simple. It's called democracy. SF's vote just continues to rise.

The middle classes are the saviours of SF! Please, get real. Sure the middle classes are voting for SF more. In the North where SF has been working at council level with all parties, including the DUP, they deliver the goods.

However, I can understand the elite's conscernation about SF. SF's modern history of struggle; it's core political beliefs; and its opposition to a small ruling elite doesn't fit the current Irish mold. In Irish board rooms and in the corridors of the Dail, the elite see an outsider who is going to rock their little boat.

It's also funny how many pundits in Dublin selectively use history to make a point. (God forbid a Republican mention hitory.) SF 2007 = Dev 1920. Balderdash and piffle. This is just another false hope that Republicans will start fighting with each other, and hopefully destroy each other. Something similiar to what the British military establishment tried to do in the 70's and 80's. The fact is that, while its impossible for all Republicans to agree on everything, they share a recent past which bonds them more than parts them.

Something also rings hollow when certain people express the hope that Stormont will work. The ruling eco-political elite in Dublin really would like to see the whole thing fall apart and that the million and half Irish people "down there" dissappear off the political horizon. It would show how the rabble isn't able for government and in the process justify the elite's view of itself as rightful rulers.

As far as southern political parties of wanting no truck with SF, all I can say is Thank God. Having no part with any political party myself, I do hope that my read on SF is somewhat correct. Hopefully, it's a shared history of moving from marginalisation to equity. Hopefully, it will rock that little boat to its core.

Oh, by the way, is this the same moderate David Trimble who gleefully marched arm-in-arm with Paisley at Drumcree as citizens were beaten off their own streets by the RUC and British army. Such a sad decimation of a man.

oscarBravo

How's about we continue this discussion without the petty little digs at each other?

Please don't mistake this for a request.