Kingmakers

Múinteoir

However well the larger parties do, the smaller ones are likely to be the 'kingmakers'. Will it be Sinn Féin, Labour or the Greens?

oscarBravo

What do you think?

Múinteoir

oscarBravo wrote:

What do you think?

Hard to call I reckon. If Fianna Fáil only lose a few seats and PDs are wiped out, it'll be SF. If FF only lose a few and FG don't too well, a lot of labour might be prepared to jump ship. And the based on their current poll figures and momentum, the Greens may well in a position to put either side into government, especially since they're not in any electoral pact.

Chakar

It's not going to be Sinn Fein. Ahern has consistently ruled that out. Anyway Sinn Fein have also ruled out a coalition with FF which I think is just hilarious. I'll say its the Greens this time around.

E92

Its going to be the Greens. It was front page news on the Sunday Times today that Bertie said he definately would not go in with the Shinners. He said that it wouldnt be in his time. I still dont believe him. He would go in with anyone. If FG and Labour combined have more seats than FF on their own we're heading for a change of government. Depending on which poll you choose to believe this is highly likely, and in that case the Greens will probably be needed to make up an FG/Labour/Green coalition.

johnnyskeleton

E92 wrote:

Its going to be the Greens. It was front page news on the Sunday Times today that Bertie said he definately would not go in with the Shinners. He said that it wouldnt be in his time. I still dont believe him. He would go in with anyone. If FG and Labour combined have more seats than FF on their own we're heading for a change of government. Depending on which poll you choose to believe this is highly likely, and in that case the Greens will probably be needed to make up an FG/Labour/Green coalition.

In my view, if Bertie says that he won't go in with SF, that means he is thinking about it...

ninty9er

I think Chakar will back me up on this one.

A FF/SF coalition come June would effectively cause the largest political movement in this state to discintigrate overnight!!

It IS NOT going to happen this time round...or even next time round unless there are serious changes to the SF line-up

Chakar

ninty9er wrote:

I think Chakar will back me up on this one.

A FF/SF coalition come June would effectively cause the largest political movement in this state to disintegrate overnight!!

It IS NOT going to happen this time round...or even next time round unless there are serious changes to the SF line-up

That's true. However I would oppose Fianna Fail going in a coalition with Sinn Fein in principle.

mike65

Jasus its the boards.ie FF Mini-Pops cabal!

Its too early to be sure, I think Labour is most likely but any number of permuations are still possible.

Mike.

Múinteoir

ninty9er wrote:

I think Chakar will back me up on this one.

A FF/SF coalition come June would effectively cause the largest political movement in this state to discintigrate overnight!!

Why would it cause FF to disintegrate? Aren't yez both "republican"?

transylman

The real kingmaker has already decided which party to support.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2062949,00.html

With Independent news and media controlling the Independent, the Daily Star, the Evening Herald, the Sunday Independent, the Sunday World, the Sunday Tribune, the Anglo Celt, the Bray People, the Carlow People, the Corkman, the Drogheda Independent, the Enniscorthy Guardian, the Fingal Independent, the Gorey Guardian, the Kerryman, the Meath Chronicle, the Nenagh Guardian, the New Ross Standard, the Offaly Independent, the Sligo Champion, the Southern Star, the Argus, the Tuam Herald, the Westmeath Examiner, the Westmeath Independent, the Wexford People, and the Wicklow People , Fianna Fail are going to be reelected and there is nothing that you can do about it.

Zaph

I just hope it's not a massed bunch of independents, each with their own agenda. The real nightmare scenario for FF would be if they needed the support of Beverly Cooper Flynn, assuming she's re-elected. That would really test Bertie's mettle. Of course it would also be shameful for Mayo if she was returned, but it seems that being dishonest is no obstacle to being a politician in Ireland.

I really don't think that any of the parties will do business with SF, I think they all know that they'd be crucified at the next election if they did, which really only leaves the Greens. It would be good to see them in government as I reckon they'd keep the major parties honest, but I just hope they don't blow things for themselves with ridiculous demands like everyone swapping their car for a bike or becoming vegetarian before they'll enter government.

Glenbhoy

Whatever way you want to look at it, it's labour - the question is who will be next tanaiste - Rabitte or Howlin - in other words will Rabitte renege on his avowed stance of not entering government with FF? I think he will, what does anyone else think? I'm still trying to figure out what the point of having a 'rainbow' coalition is, at least to give Sargent some credit, he's not pretending he's part of this mythical coalition (which will disintegrate if the numbers aren't good enough).

Ulster9

think Chakar will back me up on this one.

A FF/SF coalition come June would effectively cause the largest political movement in this state to discintigrate overnight!!

It IS NOT going to happen this time round...or even next time round unless there are serious changes to the SF line-up

Some people get a little carried away with themselves,some people thought the DUP would never share power.According to the Sunday Indo yesterday a FF/SF coalition was the third most favoured coalition among FF voters even ahead of a FF/PD coalition in their opinion poll.

Ulster9

Despite Mr Ahern's repeatedly ruling out any coalition with Sinn Fein while he is party leader, a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein combination was surprisingly popular and came in third, ahead of the present government coalition of Fianna Fail with the Progressive Democrats.

Todays Irish Independenthttp://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=39&si=1817825&issue_id=15544

Seth Brundle

Chakar wrote:

It's not going to be Sinn Fein. Ahern has consistently ruled that out.

And we all know that political promises are worth the paper they are written on!

Chakar wrote:

Anyway Sinn Fein have also ruled out a coalition with FF which I think is just hilarious.

Out of curiosity, why do you think its hilarious?

Ulster9

In yesterdays opinion poll, a FG/LB was the most favoured followed by a FF majority government and thirdly FF/SF.Now seems like this thread is out of touch with the people.

ninty9er

Ulster9 wrote:

Some people get a little carried away with themselves,some people thought the DUP would never share power.According to the Sunday Indo yesterday a FF/SF coalition was the third most favoured coalition among FF voters even ahead of a FF/PD coalition in their opinion poll.

Whe you consider that Fianna Fáil is an organisation of about 60,000 people. there are max 5,000 of those comfortable with the idea of a FF/SF coalition of any sort. I ain't gettin no carried away with meself:rolleyes:

brianthebard

Glenbhoy wrote:

Whatever way you want to look at it, it's labour - the question is who will be next tanaiste - Rabitte or Howlin - in other words will Rabitte renege on his avowed stance of not entering government with FF? I think he will, what does anyone else think? I'm still trying to figure out what the point of having a 'rainbow' coalition is, at least to give Sargent some credit, he's not pretending he's part of this mythical coalition (which will disintegrate if the numbers aren't good enough).

Has Rabitte actually said he won't go into government with FF? I thought he refused to comment on that possibility.

Glenbhoy

Ulster9 wrote:

Some people get a little carried away with themselves,some people thought the DUP would never share power.According to the Sunday Indo yesterday a FF/SF coalition was the third most favoured coalition among FF voters even ahead of a FF/PD coalition in their opinion poll.

Amazingly that was circa 11% from memory, which was almost identical to the amount of people who are giving their first preference votes to SF - see any correlation??

Glenbhoy

brianthebard wrote:

Has Rabitte actually said he won't go into government with FF? I thought he refused to comment on that possibility.

This time last year he was ruling it out, then he stopped commentating on it - today on the news he said "I want to see Ahern and McDowell in oposition", come May 18th what will he say??

DublinWriter

Glenbhoy wrote:

come May 18th what will he say??

Basically anything to get into power.

I've never seen any party leader flip-flop like this, I'm searching my memory of some of the stunts pulled by CJH and I'm drawing a blank, but then again, he was always shrewd enough to keep his trap shut.

Rabbitte will 'burst the party' and lose his grassroots if he goes into a coalition with FF.

E92

Its not for me to tell Labour what to do obviously, but they need to be reminded of the consequences that happen if they do go in with FF on the backdrop of rightly telling people about how bad FF are, and promising not to go in. The 'Spring tide' episode is I have in mind. They went from 33 to 21 seats IIRC. The electorate would punish them next time round, as they did that time I think. The only ground under which I would accept an FF/Lab coalition is if in order to save the country from Sinn Fein, but then again the Greens are meant to being doing extremely well by all accounts, so in the hopefully unlikely event that FF get back,there should be enough Green TDs and they can go in. I'd actually love to see the return of the two and a half party norm, but I can always keep dreaming, and besides I have no real objection to most of the Green policies other than stopping the road building programme, which even if it does go ahead will still mean the completion of the high quality roads from Dublin to Galway, Cork, Limerick and Waterford.

The_Minister

DublinWriter wrote:

I've never seen any party leader flip-flop like this,

He started in Sinn Fein, then became Workers party, then became Democratic Left, then became Labour party. He is the king of schisms, and has had to change his politics each time.
Now he cuts taxes.

Glenbhoy

The_Minister wrote:

He started in Sinn Fein, then became Workers party, then became Democratic Left, then became Labour party. He is the king of schisms, and has had to change his politics each time.
Now he cuts taxes.

Sure didn't Wilde say "He who cannot change his mind, cannot change anything:) ", that aside, he's one of the few politicians we have who is reasonably articulate without a prepared speech.

is_that_so

Ulster9 wrote:

In yesterdays opinion poll, a FG/LB was the most favoured followed by a FF majority government and thirdly FF/SF.Now seems like this thread is out of touch with the people.

And your point with this is what exactly?

TBH there is some serious daftness to third preferred and fourth preferred, we could even be looking at the SWP.
It doesn't matter what we prefer, that SF option is not going to happen in this election.

Kingmakers IMO in this election are Labour and the Greens

Likely political options available

FF/PD
FF/Labour
FG/LAB/Greens

Even FF/Greens ranks about the SF option in political terms.

Although I can't see the FF/Green option materialising at this stage

Jonny Arson

You can never say never in politics but I really can't see for the life of me that Labour are lacking that many braincells going into government with FF. It would be political suicide for the party to make the same mistake of 1992 again, they would lose their grassroots once and for all and the coalition would inevitably collapse again within 2/3 years.

I think the Greens will be most likely kingmakers but I feel that's a curse for them more than anything. The won't make it public but most of the party would happily join FG/Lab and don't want anything to do with FF. Greens going with FF willl backfire on them from voters who want FF out. The Greens also know dour economic times are ahead for the next government and with certain tribunals coming up soon ther credibility could be battered for years to come. Anyway going by the latest polls I don't think FF/Greens will make 83 even with some independents

I smell a hung dail

Chakar

kbannon wrote:

Out of curiosity, why do you think its hilarious?

We had always ruled them out as a potential coalition partner or accepting their support in a hung Dail. They ruled us out as well, which I found funny.

Dalfiatach

I think the only certainty is that the next Govt will not be FF/PD. There's just no way they'll have anywhere near 83 seats between them, if any of the polls are remotely accurate.

FF/Green might just scrape it, but that's still unlikely. I think FF are looking at a serious kicking and losing 15+ seats. Even with a Green Tide and the Greens coming back with 12 or 13 seats, FF/Green will probably be shy of a workable majority, even with a few Inds.

The only combinations likely to have a majority are FF/Lab and FG/Lab/Green. Some FFers and PDs are mumbling about FF/PD/Green, but there's no way the Greens will go with that.

If SF do really well and get 10-12 seats, they might end up actually depriving *all* the various blocs of an overall majority and causing a hung Dáil. All bets are off if that happens.

GabharBrean

Dalfiatach wrote:

. . . If SF do really well and get 10-12 seats, they might end up actually depriving *all* the various blocs of an overall majority and causing a hung Dáil. All bets are off if that happens.

If this were to occur, wouldn't the grand coalition become viable. FF + FG. After all what really divides them? Their economic aims and policies are interchangable. Packaging might be slightly different, the outcome will be the same.