Fine Gael on course to win General Election

ballooba

This is the best poll for over twenty years for Fine Gael. Woot!

RTE wrote:

The TNS/mrbi poll in tomorrow's Irish Times, puts Fine Gael just 3% behind Fianna Fáil, and in a strong position to form a new Government.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0426/poll1.html


Full figures are:
Fianna Fail 34% (-3)
Fine Gael 31% (+5)
Labour 10% (-1)
Sinn Fein 10% (+1)
Green 6% (-2)
Inds & Others 6% (-2)
PD 3% (+2) (lol)

Looks like the FG/Lab coalition is back in the running. I would still like to see a FG/Lab/Green government however. Bertie is lucky he didn't call the election this week, he would be trounced on these figures.

county

i personally never take polls seriously,so if i was bertie i wouldn`t be worrying to much

Dontico

I was out canvassing when I heard the news. As great news as it is. Polls dont mean much. I still think people will make thier mind while ticking the box. Accept in Dublin North Central. Thats FG booked.

Time Magazine

As I've said several times on this site, polls under-estimate FG support and it should be noted this figures have been adjusted to reflect that. I think that might slightly over-estimate FG's support, but only but a percent or two. Nonetheless, fantastic news.

Oh, and the election is on May 17th. Word from my contact is that Paddy Power have suspended bets on the election in light of various bets summing to €20,000 being placed today on the election being held on that day; all of the bets tracing to Leinster House IP addresses....

Stevek101

Time to pack my bags and leave before the country is brought back a few centuries.

Time Magazine

FG have invented a time machine?! :rolleyes:

Stevek101

Might as well have with their policies.

ballooba

Stevek101 wrote:

Might as well have with their policies.

Sour grapes.

InFront

That's wonderful news. The closer we get to the election, the more cautiously optimistic I get that the public will finally kick Bertie and Michael into the back seat. Roll on May 17th:) (Thursday, boo)

ballooba

Michael has been holding on to the towbar now for a long time imo.

ninty9er

Don't we need 15 days notice ruling out the 17th, because Mary McAleese is out of the country all of next week!!

environ.ie wrote:

A Dáil election (general election) must be held within 30 days after the dissolution of the
Dáil. The Clerk of the Dáil issues a writ to the returning officer in each constituency
instructing him or her to hold an election of the prescribed number of members. The returning officer
is the county registrar or, in Dublin and Cork, the city or county sheriff. The Ceann Comhairle
(chairman of the Dáil) is automatically returned without an election unless he or she signifies that
they do not wish to continue as a member.
The Minister for the Environment and Local Government appoints the polling day which must be
between the 18th and 25th day (excluding Good Friday, Sundays and Public Holidays) after the issue
of the writ. The Minister also appoints the polling period which must consist of at least 12 hours
between 7.00 a.m. and 10.30 p.m.

So at this stage it can't possibly be the 17th. If the Dáil is dissolved Monday the 7th, then the earliest possible polling day is the 24th which is where my money will be going in Paddy Power's tomorrow

ninty9er

ballooba wrote:

Michael has been holding on to the towbar now for a long time imo.

Michael and his party colleagues likely knew the outcome of this poll when they said on camera today that the only thing that remained to be decided is who Fianna Fáil's coalition partners will be! I feel that he's quite scared, but Bertie has no need to be worried right now.

ballooba

ninty9er wrote:

Don't we need 15 days notice ruling out the 17th, because Mary McAleese is out of the country all of next week!!

Mary does not necessarily need to be in the country. Bertie can dissolve the Dail through some committee or other.

ninty9er

ballooba wrote:

Mary does not necessarily need to be in the country. Bertie can dissolve the Dail through some committee or other.

I think the Chief Justice has better things to be doing with his time...O'Hanlon and Kiely on the other hand will be in Leinster House saving the trip to the Phoenix Park.

I still think it's the 24th. Unless he ammends statute to allow for a 7 year Dáil!! How embarrassing for the candidates with posters up in that highly unlikely event.

SeanW

releases like this are dangerous, IMO because it smacks of premature celebration.

The race is up for grabs so anyone whos dissatisfied with the present government needs to get out there make their voice heard on polling day.

FF OUT!

Stargal

SeanW wrote:

releases like this are dangerous, IMO because it smacks of premature celebration.

I think it's still too close to be considered a premature celebration (although the poll also found that if the Green Party were included, the alternative coalition would have a lead of 10% over FF and the PDs!). It's not like FG & Labour have consistently been trouncing the government in these polls; it's been a (very) slow climb, and it could still change in the run-up to the election.

You're right about how people need to get out and vote on the day though; for me, one of the most significant findings of the poll was that the Undecideds is up to 19% . If these people haven't been swayed by promises of tax cuts, stamp duty reform, pre-school education for all kids or more Gardaí on the streets, then it's difficult to predict what exactly is going to sway them.

One last point: The poll is a major disappointment for Labour. They seem to be running a strong campaign, but for some reason it's just not connecting with the voters.

GabharBrean

Are there numbers in any polls of people who definitely are not going to vote?
Their reasons for not voting might make more interesting reading.

is_that_so

GabharBrean wrote:

Are there numbers in any polls of people who definitely are not going to vote?
Their reasons for not voting might make more interesting reading.

I don't think you'll ever get accurate numbers of that. No-one will ever say no to that one.

It is good news and an indication of what has been true for some time, that this will be a real election. I am inclined to believe that the alternative government have picked up enough momentum to get there. The undecideds will play a huge part but this poll may go some way towards convincing some of that group who didn't believe there was an alternative government out there.

In some ways the more Bertie dithers , the more others not in government may have to gain. The election campaign seems to have started without him. As their trump card he is not performing well and the petulant "pencils" speech the other day reinforces the fact that it may just be time for a change.

As posted earlier the week of the 24th is now looking more likely at this point.

DMC

Interesting that The Irish Times have chosen now to adjust the figures in the poll. I would've thought that change should've been done months, if not years ago, since they know that FG's figures in polls are under-estimated.

One thing of note is that Labour and Sinn Fein are 10% each. Fine Gael are not going to like that, as they are the only ones of their favoured coalition going up in the polls, nor should Labour folk.

Anyhoo, it is a race. And I welcome that. Makes it interesting.

swiss

One last point: The poll is a major disappointment for Labour. They seem to be running a strong campaign, but for some reason it's just not connecting with the voters.

Labour are under heavy pressure from Sinn Féin in their traditional working class base (as evidenced by their identical support levels). But I would agree that Labour are running a strong campaign, and it is difficult to say why this is not connecting with voters. Perhaps it may have something to do with Labour not ruling out the possibility of a coalition government with Fianna Fáil in the next election.

As for the poll itself, as one who intends to vote FG in the next election I would cautiously welcome it. However I do think that polls can be misleading because they offer a snapshot of public opinion which is notoriously fickle and liable to fluctuate. Nevertheless, it will offer morale to the FG camp, and possibly give them momentum leading up into some hard weeks of campaigning.

Senator

I live in Britain and so haven't got a Dáil vote (I have a Seanad one though as a TCD graduate) but from this remove it does not seem that there is terribly much between the policies of the 2 alternative coalitions on offer in many major areas.

The Celtic Tiger economy is purring along nicely and there may not seem to be a good-enough reason economically to many voters to rock the boat at present by changing governments.

However, the health of a democracy does rely to some extent on politics being "freshened up" every now and then through long-sitting governments being turfed out and the Opposition getting a turn on the swings. There is no great harm done if voters feel after a year or two of the new crowd that they have made a ghastly mistake by letting them on the swings because they can then boot them off again in another couple of years - by which time the previous lot will have sharpened up their act, cut out the deadwood and introduced new frontbenchers etc. via a dose of standing in the corner.

So, on balance, if I were living in Ireland today I'd probably vote for a change of government.

Múinteoir

Stevek101 wrote:

Time to pack my bags and leave before the country is brought back a few centuries.

Yes because the party founded by the arch-conservative De Valera, has always been to the fore in advancing social progress hasn't it.

Jonny Arson

Senator wrote:

The Celtic Tiger economy is purring along nicely and there may not seem to be a good-enough reason economically to many voters to rock the boat at present by changing governments.

The Celtic Tiger has been dead since 2001. Our economy has been propped up due to our ridiculously overpriced and fragile housing market and mass immigation from the new EU states. We're doing nothing in manufacturing and very little elsewhere. Our housing market bubble will burst sooner rather than later and when the sh!t hits the fan in the next 12-18 months we will be heading for recession. FF/PDs let this nonsense continue under their watch and they know the sh!t that is around the corner for this country due to their reckless incompetence of managing our country. They are already blaming the opposition for the decline in the housing market, saying our economy will suddenly decline within months of a FG/Labour government so they're playing the bullsh!t ''we told you so card'' so that the gullible fools will believe them come the next election and put them back in for another 5 years of pissing money down the toilet to their property developer friends.
I know a couple of people who plan to vote FF/PD, not because of their wonderful managment of this country but so that they will have to deal with the crap for the next 5 years that they created.... I'd be lying if I said that thought hadn't flashed through my head aswell.
My main gripe with the opposition is that they also know what's ahead for this next government and the reality is they wont be able to lower taxes to 18%, deliver 2000 extra Gardai, improve the health service etc etc. It will broken promises all the way for whoever is in charge (nothing new if its FF in power) so I'm now considering voting Greens or (hell forbid, I'd never thought I'd say this) SF.

Anyway, polls are never going to be reliable but it is conclusive based on the 3 polls within the past week that FF are looking screwed and that at least 60% of the people of this country see through them for what they really are.
FG's performance is what I expected it to be from what I've heard on the ground.
I think Labour and the Greens are victims of all the attention focusing on the two big parties. However with FG's big percentage you can expect both parties to recieve tonnes of transfers which will hold them up.
SF are benefiting from protest votes but are going to lack transfers which will see them behind Labour and Greens in terms of seats.
PDs.... f**ked. They're completely irrelevant now. There can be no threats from McDowell of a FF majority like in 2002 to get them votes from FG supporters.

It could go either way now.

Senator

Well, you might be right but I'm over 4 or 5 times a year meeting all sorts of folks and the general consensus seems to be that Ireland is still doing very nicely, thank you, and aren't we great all the same.

On the PDs, what sort of numbers are the 'experts' predicting they'll be back with ? Are they really up sh1t creek now - and why specifically ?

ballooba

Senator wrote:

Well, you might be right but I'm over 4 or 5 times a year meeting all sorts of folks and the general consensus seems to be that Ireland is still doing very nicely, thank you, and aren't we great all the same.

Not even my friends in the financial sector, eternal optimists, are carrying on with that mantra now. There has been a bit of a wake up call in the last couple of months that we can't keep using personal debt to prop up the economy. The balance of trade has gone out the window. Our export industries are in sh!t.

Bertie boasts about reducing the national debt but when people look back on this period the real scandal will be the level of personal debt taken on by the ordinary people while the government pays off debt and the builders line their pockets.

Senator wrote:

On the PDs, what sort of numbers are the 'experts' predicting they'll be back with ? Are they really up sh1t creek now - and why specifically ?

I will admit that it is hard to assess PD performance from a national poll. I do think they are up the creek, but mainly because McDowell is a very unpopular leader and is doing the party a lot of damage.

Senator

I was asking people how they thought the economy might go in the next year or so and most were pretty optimistic still - and I include bank/building society staff in that. The reason I was asking is that I am considering selling up here and moving back to Ireland in the medium-term future. While property prices there are a little prohibitive right now, I don't expect that always to be the case. And you can still pick up bargains if you know where to look and aren't restricting your search to the Pale.

SeanW

I actually don't have anything againts McDowell, in fact he's not that bad. IIRC the best idea anyone in that government ever had was McDowell's idea for Cafe Bars ... but Fianna Fail binned it because their backbenches are full of publicans.

I wouldn't mind seeing the PDs in coalition with FG, but balanced by Labour, Greens and whatnot.

ballooba

Senator wrote:

I was asking people how they thought the economy might go in the next year or so and most were pretty optimistic still - and I include bank/building society staff in that.

IIRC the most recent polls on consumer confidence found that it is actually in decline.

Senator

SeanW wrote:

I wouldn't mind seeing the PDs in coalition with FG, but balanced by Labour, Greens and whatnot.

Ah, old whatnot - your only man.

mike65

Intersting poll because its got a 4% error margin and the estimation for FF/FG
polling representation v actual numbers. In other words its pinch of salt time again.

FG can be happy a general trend is being mantained but Labour might be a little queasy that any "FF-out" mood passes them by, oh sure they could still be in government but with only one or two senior ministers and you know they'll be looking for much more than that.

Mike.

Senator

Are Labour definitely, no way, never, not ever, read my lips, ruling coalition with FF entirely out ?