Fine Gael on course to win General Election

ballooba

mike65 wrote:

In other words its pinch of salt time again.

A grain maybe.

TNS/MRBI aren't going to undermine their methodology by jumping in willy nilly with both feet first. It's been evident for quite some time that this adjustment was needed and many commentators (albeit FG commentators mostly) would have applied it anyway. Even before the adjustment was applied these figures look good.

Dave!

It's strange that the PDs went up considering how much trouble Mary Harney is having with the health service, and after the abysmal performance from Mickey Mack at the Ard Fheis.

is_that_so

Senator wrote:

Are Labour definitely, no way, never, not ever, read my lips, ruling coalition with FF entirely out ?

If the only viable choice boiled down to FF/SF or FF/Labour, they might "because the people would want them to and they'd be doing it for the country"

mike65

DaveMcG wrote:

It's strange that the PDs went up considering how much trouble Mary Harney is having with the health service, and after the abysmal performance from Mickey Mack at the Ard Fheis.

Not too strange, the margin for error is 4% they were on 1% last time and 3% this, so both within margin of error!

Mike.

Marcus.Aurelius

Stevek101 wrote:

Time to pack my bags and leave before the country is brought back a few centuries.

Nice to see another twit that hasn't been reading the newspapers lately. FF inherited the celtic tiger and fleeced it, us and left in a shambles. Look at grannies dying on hospital trollies, Bertie writing cheques and taking bribes like his old master. FF have got lazy and inept. They're so corrupt now they couldn't change anything even if they tried. Glad to see the back of those useless b**tards.

EDIT: Let's not forget that the Fianna Failers were the original traitor party and kick-started the civil war. Thank you, E.DeV.

[Jackass]

It's a party formed on, based on and rife with corruption

Anyway, glad to see this news and would like to see a rainbow government, but polls can be taken with a pinch of sault tbh...

E92

While the sheer amount of comments posted here hoping that there will be a change of Government and thinking that it may well happen is very welcome, and I'm pleasently surprised by the amount of people wanting the alternative to get it, I worry that everyone may be thinking that and saying to themselves, ''Ah sure Fine Gael will do very well so theres no need for me to vote for them because sure they'll get plenty of votes from everyone else'' and what would end up is that instead of people giving FG 1st preferences that they may either not vote at all, or vote for Fine Gael but give their first preferences to someone else(and it may be someone other than Labour)instead of to us/Labour. I hope we can get in on our own with Labour, that would be my preferred option, if and its only an if those figures in the TNS/mrbi poll were replicated on the day, then FG and Lab on their should have the numbers to go in, and there would be a healthy majority if FG, Lab and Greens went in, but if that doesnt materialise, then I'd welcome the Greens in a rainbow Government, and that would be my second choice.

I'd nearly say that FG on 31% is actually too high, that said I'm not a FG member therefore I don't know how the public are reacting on the doorsteps,but the important thing is the trend, and each opinion poll has Fine Gael doing much better than opinion polls a few months ago, and even more importantly the alternative government for only the second time has a higher preference than Fianna Fáil and the PDs, as featured in todays poll.Incidently John Miniham of the PDs has a big article in his leaflet telling us why the people of Cork South Central should vote for him, about how bad it is that the Airport will have the €100 million debt; this issue is of course a source of annoyance in these parts. Someone should remind him that he is part of the Government which allowed this whole issue to arise in the first place.

Overall I'm cautiously optimistic that Fine Gael are doing well; the average of the three polls in the past week has us on 27%, a figure which is slightly below where I think Fine Gael are (certainly having spoke to people who are connected to the party, I think we are around the 28-29% mark) the party is on course for 8-9 out 19 seats in Cork(2 in each constituency except for North Central and East possibly) or even 10 is the day goes well(2 in each Cork constituency),and remember that Fianna Fáils vote goes down during election campaigns traditionally(though it didnt last time so theres no room for FG to be complacent there, coupled with the fact that the number of undecideds is at 19% at this late a stage, but nevertheless the trend is very much going in the right direction and that's the important thing). I think that while Labour and the Shinners are on the same percentage in the poll,Labour will get an awful lot more seats than the Shinners will because of transfers from FG and others, though I think they will unfortunately gain perhaps 3-5 seats, which is a waste of peoples votes as with Fine Gael heading in the right direction, they will almost certainly not be in any position to form a government(nor will the PDs and its a waste of a vote voting for them too IMO).

DublinWriter

Senator wrote:

Are Labour definitely, no way, never, not ever, read my lips, ruling coalition with FF entirely out ?

Depends on what day of the week it is.

oscarBravo

maoleary wrote:

Nice to see another twit that hasn't been reading the newspapers lately.

One more remark like that will earn you a week off from this forum.

johnnyrotten

"Fine Gael on course to win General Election "

God help us

Raskolnikov

I'll end the scandal of hospital waiting lists

:rolleyes:

Marcus.Aurelius

Better than Bertie's "Ah sure intit grand as it is!"

Bottle_of_Smoke

Was gonna vote greens#1 but switching it to FF after that poll.

Fine Gael aren't going to do things any better. You simply can not cut taxes/stamp duty & pay for 2000 extra gardai. Enda Kenny is Ireland's answer to George Bush -i'll make the criminals pay"/proposing to ban alcopops etc
All he's done in the past 12 months is criticise Bertie Ahern in a painful tone that I just don't want to have to listen to. Though I do respect him for claiming he'll walk if he doesn't follow through on his promises.

Pat Rabitte isn't completely useless but when he's in arguments on prime time etc & he can't answer something he just starts shouting & changing the topic. I can't stand people who do that & I don't want them running my country.

I'm not saying Fianna Fail are perfect or anything, Bertie should have walked after the financial "gifts" he recieved were revealed. It's just the likes of O Dea/Lenihan/Ahern seem more intelligent & more like the type of people I could stand having a conversation with over candidates from other parties.

Unfortunately I don't think many people share my views & I reckon there'll be a lot of happy boardsters come results day.

Marcus.Aurelius

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote:

Was gonna vote greens#1 but switching it to FF after that poll.

Fine Gael aren't going to do things any better. You simply can not cut taxes/stamp duty & pay for 2000 extra gardai. Enda Kenny is Ireland's answer to George Bush -i'll make the criminals pay"/proposing to ban alcopops etc
All he's done in the past 12 months is criticise Bertie Ahern in a painful tone that I just don't want to have to listen to. Though I do respect him for claiming he'll walk if he doesn't follow through on his promises.

Pat Rabitte isn't completely useless but when he's in arguments on prime time etc & he can't answer something he just starts shouting & changing the topic. I can't stand people who do that & I don't want them running my country.

Unfortunately I don't think many people share my views & I reckon there'll be a lot of happy boardsters come results day.

Don't you think we need a change? Nobody says FG or Labour are "better" than FF and the PDs. We just want a change! FF/PD have become so corrupt they're blind to all the issues. And worst of all, they're complacent and think we're all still dumb enough to let them win again. It's sad I think.

SeanW

It would be hard to see how FG/Lab could be any worse than the present shower. One good reason - I booked a driving test last September, its now almost May and I've seen no sign of it. And I'm not even in Navan which is the driving test blackspot of Ireland with 59 week waiting lists (that's right, 1 year, 1 month and 3 weeks to get a simple driving test).

In any other 1st world country, stuff like this just works. It's not rocket science and they could have fixed if they gave half a damn, any time in the last 10 years.

If we as a citizenry are stupid enough to reelect these clowns, we shouldn't be surprised by the ever-collapsing standards of governace.

It might be an exaggeration to say that Fine Gael is the greatest political party in the world, but then again look at their competition

Bottle_of_Smoke

maoleary wrote:

Don't you think we need a change? Nobody says FG or Labour are "better" than FF and the PDs. We just want a change! FF/PD have become so corrupt they're blind to all the issues. And worst of all, they're complacent and think we're all still dumb enough to let them win again. It's sad I think.

Yeah I do. Just not a change to Fine Gael! Would you still want a change if the main opposition were the Christian Solidarity Party?

Time Magazine

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote:

Fine Gael aren't going to do things any better. You simply can not cut taxes/stamp duty & pay for 2000 extra gardai.

I have to heartily disagree. Growth rates make for a bigger cake; a smaller proportion of a bigger cake can still be a bigger slice.

Enda Kenny is Ireland's answer to George Bush -i'll make the criminals pay"

But he will make the criminals pay. Tagging for people on bail etc.

proposing to ban alcopops etc

The plan was to increase the taxes on alcopops, not ban them. It'd be pretty impossible to ban alcopops under EU law without banning Guinness and Jameson, too.

Marcus.Aurelius

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote:

Yeah I do. Just not a change to Fine Gael! Would you still want a change if the main opposition were the Christian Solidarity Party?

Yes. They'd be so amazed to get voted in, they'd be very careful to do things right to stay in power. FF/PDs don't care, they think they'll always get back in, that's why they're so awful. That's why I want a change. The FG/Labour one would be so happy to get in, they might actually do something useful.

Bottle_of_Smoke

maoleary wrote:

Yes. They'd be so amazed to get voted in, they'd be very careful to do things right to stay in power. FF/PDs don't care, they think they'll always get back in, that's why they're so awful. That's why I want a change. The FG/Labour one would be so happy to get in, they might actually do something useful.

That's a pretty sensible logic I must admit. I still wouldn't want the the CSP though!

Ibid wrote:

But he will make the criminals pay. Tagging for people on bail etc.

Tagging for people on bail is a great idea. What I don't like is the way he puts across the idea that anyone who's convicted of a crime is inherently evil/different from the rest of society. I'm not entirely sure what his plans for tougher sentences are but I wouldn't like to see petty criminals getting longer sentences considering how many people move on to drugs etc in prison. I'm fine with tougher sentences for rapists/drug dealers however.

The plan was to increase the taxes on alcopops, not ban them. It'd be pretty impossible to ban alcopops under EU law without banning Guinness and Jameson, too.

http://www.safestreets.ie/ideas.asp

Number 7 there. Also take a look at number 9 - surely it's a waste of money if we have a rapid reponse ready every time someone sparks a spliff in public. Maybe it's for a different type of offence there's not to much info. Number 10's a good idea though.

I have to heartily disagree. Growth rates make for a bigger cake; a smaller proportion of a bigger cake can still be a bigger slice.

True - but we're not neccesarily guaranteed this growth will allow for all the promises/

Lemming

maoleary wrote:

Yes. They'd be so amazed to get voted in, they'd be very careful to do things right to stay in power. FF/PDs don't care, they think they'll always get back in, that's why they're so awful. That's why I want a change. The FG/Labour one would be so happy to get in, they might actually do something useful.

Indeed, there's a very strong point in there. Having been in power for so long now, FF/PD have forgotten that it is they who serve the people, not the people who serve them. And in the event of an absolute (and I hope it is) utter raping at the polls, it would serve to remind not only themselves, but every other political party too of that oh-so-important fact.

mike65

Most of these arguements will be reheated in 5 years regardless of who wins in 3 weeks I suspect. The problems this country suffers from have little to do with which name is on the door, rather its about a wider failure to develope a reasonable level of technical competancy among our ruling classes and that includes our supposedly brilliant civil servants.

Mike.

Ardent

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote:

Yeah I do. Just not a change to Fine Gael! Would you still want a change if the main opposition were the Christian Solidarity Party?

Fine Gael/Labour gets my vote if it means getting them gangsters (FF) out of office. What other reason would anyone need?

Time Magazine

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote:

Tagging for people on bail is a great idea.

And will certainly lower crime, albeit at the expense of some personal liberty for the innocent (who can be extinguished of any doubt of guilt if they're suspected of doing something during bail. Thus the tough on criminals thing.

What I don't like is the way he puts across the idea that anyone who's convicted of a crime is inherently evil/different from the rest of society.

That's not true tbh. I saw all the parties speak at a meeting on ending homelessness and Inda was spot on when he said "We can't stop families breaking up but we do our best to rectify it." By extension, and I know it's a bit of a jump, I think there's logic there that some criminals are different to others. Certainly, they will be punished, but there will be hope of rehabilitation. One of the schemes FG proposes is for drug rehabilitation as part of/immediately after sentencing.

I'm not entirely sure what his plans for tougher sentences are but I wouldn't like to see petty criminals getting longer sentences considering how many people move on to drugs etc in prison. I'm fine with tougher sentences for rapists/drug dealers however.

There will be tougher sentences for pretty much all offenses. You beat someone up, I hope that you can expect a few days behind bars as a punishment.

Number 7 there. Also take a look at number 9 - surely it's a waste of money if we have a rapid reponse ready every time someone sparks a spliff in public. Maybe it's for a different type of offence there's not to much info. Number 10's a good idea though.

Touché on 7. Stupid, inoperable idea.

True - but we're not neccesarily guaranteed this growth will allow for all the promises/

Absolutely we're not promised growth. But you can cut tax rates and spend more so don't let that turn you off voting for one party or another. Economists are already giving growth predictions for 2008 and so on. As long as nothing mad like SF or the Greens getting the Department of Finance (i.e. as long as FF/PD/FG/Lab hold it), the growth rate should be pretty much the same under any coalition and thus the amount of money available to spend will be about the same. Of course what matters is how you plan to spend it, and in this government's case, how you plan to waste it. I like PoliticalThicko's phrase of Mary Harney "pissing the public's money up against any wall I could find". With PPARS, e-Voting etc etc it's fairly accurate. If you get rid of this waste, very quickly you've a lot of money to be spending.

Marcus.Aurelius

I think that FF/PDs have forgotten that their government exists to serve the people, not the reverse. It's sad to see, I have no doubt that Bertie is a brilliant politician and could do a great job if he wanted to. I just think he has no credibity left, and lacks the willpower to do anything good for the people. He's taken so many bribes and so many backhanders, his hands are tied, but he doesn't seem to care.

I just want change. I want to see the PDs shown for what they are, FFers with different banners. I want to see Bertie kicked into the opposition. I want to see a change before we run ourselves out of all competitiveness.

The_Minister

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote:

Fine Gael aren't going to do things any better. You simply can not cut taxes/stamp duty & pay for 2000 extra gardai.

Nearly a 1000 of those Garda will be provided by the present government, by Febuary, so really they only have to pay to train 1000.

Senator

You mean, the gardaí are trained !

nesf

mike65 wrote:

Most of these arguements will be reheated in 5 years regardless of who wins in 3 weeks I suspect. The problems this country suffers from have little to do with which name is on the door, rather its about a wider failure to develope a reasonable level of technical competancy among our ruling classes and that includes our supposedly brilliant civil servants.

Mike.

I completely agree, many of the problems we have are bigger than just the party who sit in office. Not that many people can see that past their Canned Party Rhetoric Post-It that they've gone and stuck onto their monitor.

Tricity Bendix

Ibid wrote:

I have to heartily disagree. Growth rates make for a bigger cake; a smaller proportion of a bigger cake can still be a bigger slice.

Lower rates of stamp duty will not impact economic growth. Lowering income tax to 18% is predicted to lower the tax take.

Income taxes in this country are not crippling. Any attempt to lower them is merely a 'pressie' for the electorate after all of their hard work. The Laffer curve doesn't get a look in, I'm afraid.

ninty9er

The_Minister wrote:

Nearly a 1000 of those Garda will be provided by the present government, by Febuary, so really they only have to pay to train 1000.

True. A guy working part-time with my mam dropped out of college last week after he got accepted for training. He'll be in Templemore on Thursday if he passes his physical.

While I'd love to go back to 1997 as I was carefree, money meant nothing to me and I was oblivious to the world's problems, how many of you would go back. It was clear that after3 years of government by what is practically the same option being fielded as a viable opposition, the people wanted what they elected in 1992 back.

This thread starts with the general sentiment that this poll is the best fo FG in over 20 years. It's a pity so that FF have been doing so well that FINE GAEL HAS NOT BEEN DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED TO GOVERNMENT SINCE 1982. At least Garrett's voice wouldn't go through you!!

FG is not a viable alternative and now that people are seeing them for what they are, they're quite happy to let FF continue, albeit with the people answering the doors telling us they want FF with Labour or the Greens.

What people don't want is a 3 party government. Coalition isn't as stable as SPG, but due to the history of where the PDs came from the last 10 years has been at variance with that.

SPG is reeally the way to go for progress, but it won't happen this time. However shoud FG lead a coalition this time, I'd imagine the next election is a lot more likely to return a FF majority of about 4-6.

miju

ninety9er can you explain why if FF / PD's are oh so competitent and great at running this country why they have broken so many "simple" election promises over the last 10 years