Not 'needing' the points.

ArmaniJeanss

Leeds 4/6 v Ipswich (3/1).
Cardiff 5/4 v Hull (7/4).
BlackPool Evs v Scunthorpe (2/1).

These 3 games are classic examples of punters and bookies over-reacting to the fact that certain teams have 'nothing to play for', (Ips & Cardiff in midtable, Scunthorpe having won their league), up against teams who need a win (Leeds and Hull in relegation fight).

If these games had been played a month ago the prices would be hugely different, Cardiff would be odds on, Scunthorpe would be 5/4 and Leeds v Ipswich would be a classic 6/4 6/4 11/5 toss-up game. Just because Leeds 'need' to win doesnt mean they 'will' win.

So on the (hopeful) grounds that players of these 'nothing to play for' teams will still play to the their max ability (because they are professional, for win bonuses, because its fun) I've picked out 10 overpriced teams and have put them in combo bets.

All prices with Ladbrokes (better individual prices of games are available in other bookies/Betfair), in general the prices were best in Laddies this week.

Cardiff 5/4, Coventry 2/1. Ipswich 3/1. Norwich 2/1. Plymouth 8/5.
10x €1 Trebles, 5 €1 4-folds, 1 €1 5-fold.Stake = €16.

Scunthorpe 2/1, Millwall 11/5, Rotherham 2/1 Doncaster 9/2 Chester 5/2.
10x €1 Trebles, 5 €1 4-folds, 1 €1 5-fold.Stake = €16.


AJs.

Dodge

The "needing to win" factor does play a part in my decision making. Cardiff for example have been coasting the last couple of weeks and no reason to expect them to turn tht around tomorrow. Form has to come into it and Hull are in poor form so its a clear no bet for me. I think Leeds will win (not backing it)

No idea on the Scunthorpe game

Chucky the tree

Cardiff havent won in their last 8, so why would they bother now? No bet game.

Bernard Hopkins

i think the bookies also take into account most people backing leeds as opposed to ipswitch,........... and think of the profit they made with the mugs. people backing leeds at 4/6 would be suicide.

Cos88

Just looked over the results there to see how your bets would have went....less said the better!

1 up in each. I reckon. None of the three highlighted bets at the start of the post came up.

ArmaniJeanss

Cos88 wrote:

Just looked over the results there to see how your bets would have went....less said the better!

1 up in each. I reckon. None of the three highlighted bets at the start of the post came up.

I was hoping this thread would slip off the first page very quickly, damn ye for adding to it

In general I think my theory is sound because by definition backing events at greater odds than their 'true' odds over the long term is +EV.

However next year I need some way of limiting it to teams who whilst they have nothing tangible to play for tablewise are still motivated enough to try to win games, i.e, a team like Plymouth over the last few weeks of this season who were mid table but were being put under pressure by their manager Holloway to continue winning games (he was trying to shift next years season tickets).

zuutroy

I think your system is a bit too hand-wavey the way you're describing it. You need to back up some of your observations with stats that agree before you commit to it. I dont think basing your bets on a manager trying to sell tickets is a solid one

ArmaniJeanss

zuutroy wrote:

I think your system is a bit too hand-wavey the way you're describing it. You need to back up some of your observations with stats that agree before you commit to it.

Theres only about 25 games a season, all over the final few weekends, which this system can apply to. Any decent system needs a minimum winning sample of 1000+ games before it can be anyway statistically reliable.

So you're saying i'd have to wait 40 years before having a bet

zuutroy

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

Theres only about 25 games a season, all over the final few weekends, which this system can apply to. Any decent system needs a minimum winning sample of 1000+ games before it can be anyway statistically reliable.

So you're saying i'd have to wait 40 years before having a bet

You can always look at previous years, and other leagues no? You might have trouble digging up 1000 relevant games but even 200 will give you a confidence of 93% against 97% for 1000 so its would probably be enough, depending on what sort of odds/returns you're getting.