The official Politics board general election poll-Which government do you want?

nesf

nesf wrote:

I think if it came down to it the Greens would take power through almost any route that presented itself.

Which party wouldn't do that?

Drift

Looking at the results so far I see that the FG+Lab+Green is in poll position (pun intended!!).

I wonder is this influenced heavily, partially or not at all by the age demographic on the boards. I think its widely accepted that the Greens (and to a lesser degree labour) will draw a more significant percentage of their vote from younger voters. Similarly from previous threads on these boards it appears the the average board user's age would be lower than the average voter's age.

Anyway I just thought the whole age demographic of this poll might be an interesting topic for further discussion .......

gandalf

Drift yes it is influenced by the age demographic here. We would be light on people from older age brackets who would be more entrenched in their voting patterns. If you took this poll as gospel truth then the current Government would be in for a total collapse, something I think we all agree is definately not going to happen.

nesf

gandalf wrote:

Drift yes it is influenced by the age demographic here. We would be light on people from older age brackets who would be more entrenched in their voting patterns. If you took this poll as gospel truth then the current Government would be in for a total collapse, something I think we all agree is definately not going to happen.

Boards definitely has a certain demographic separate to the populace as a whole. Also those who'd actually come into this forum are a subset of the the people on boards I think.

Drift

nesf wrote:

Boards definitely has a certain demographic separate to the populace as a whole. Also those who'd actually come into this forum are a subset of the the people on boards I think.

My guess would be that the subset who come into this forum would have an average age slight older than the overall boards average - but thats only a guess. I wonder could we start a poll of people's ages contirbuting to this forum. It could be an interesting side issue - its definitely something the parties will be considering. (Already have considered in fixing the election for a Thursday no doubt!)

PH01

The_Minister wrote:

You forgot the most important issue of all: The Economy.

I second the call for 'The Economy' to be added to the poll.
It's my biggest concern and I would have selected it if it was in the poll.
Thanks.
p.

Vegeta

sporting firearms legislation, especially the proposed license fee increase

brianthebard

agent smith wrote:

Is it not an Optinoal subject?

surely if you object so much, you could just not do the exam

I don't know. Anyways I'm in university it doesn't affect my exams, I just think its a bad idea to teach religion in school.

gandalf

Apologies how could I have missed the economy, tis added now.

Obviously if you voted for something else and it should have been economy pm me and I will adjust accordingly.

gandalf

gandalf wrote:

Apologies how could I have missed the economy, tis added now.

Obviously if you voted for something else and it should have been economy pm me and I will adjust accordingly.

LoL you forgot stamp duty aswell

gandalf

That can be counted as Other, because I think its overhyped by the media and remember I am trying to sell a place at the moment as well !!

Elmo

I am was just thinking about the PD's attack on the Greens surely this doesn't make political sence.

What if a FF/PD government need the help of another smaller party to form the next government. The Greens are the only other smaller party that haven't rule out the PD's.

Not a good idea. IMO

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

My guess would be that the subset who come into this forum would have an average age slight older than the overall boards average - but thats only a guess. I wonder could we start a poll of people's ages contirbuting to this forum. It could be an interesting side issue - its definitely something the parties will be considering. (Already have considered in fixing the election for a Thursday no doubt!)

Thats very ageist, you will find that at the end of the day it is the people who go out to vote who will decided, and your vote has nothing to do with age, race, religion, class or any other group. It's is called democracy.

And I assume that most of the people who have voted on this poll are going to be going out to vote on May 24th.

Drift

Please don't get me wrong I'm not trying to be offensive to anyone. I believe its not just an entitlement but a duty of everyone of voting age to exercise their right to vote. I'm just commenting that the poll on this site is probably weighted more towards the opinions of younger voters because of the fact that there's more younger people on the boards than those of our parents age (I'm 24 myself).

But I'm also pointing out that age is one of the major demographical factors that electioneers examine. Although FF won't admit it - the less younger people that vote the better for their chances of being in the next government. Similarly the Greens would be delighted to see a high turnout of younger voters.

I remember seeing an interview with a famous person (I think it may have been Keanu Reeves but I can't find it on google) regarding the Vote or Die campaign in the states a few years back. The interviewee said that they deliberately didn't put their name to the vote or die campaign because they felt there was a vested interest in that more younger voters would undoubtedly help Kerry's campaign more than Bush's. It draws interesting similarities to the current "Rock the vote" campaign in Ireland.

I'm not trying to be ageist at all. I'm a young person, I will vote and I believe its the moral duty of everyone of voting age to vot. Having said that there would definitely be an advantage to some parties if young voter turnout was low and I thought it may be an interesting topic for discussion here because in general boards.ie would have a higher percentage of younger people/voters than the discussions one may see on Prime time or the like.

Elmo

Even the title of Rock the Vote is kind of bias, but bias towards whom?

A high turn out of young voters could mean disaster for both larger parties.

nesf

Elmo wrote:

I am was just thinking about the PD's attack on the Greens surely this doesn't make political sence.

They, as far as I remember, pretty much share the same voter base in Dublin for the most part. The PDs and Greens are fighting each other for the same votes essentially.

redspider

> It might even do FF some good.

I think we are at a stage where FF have been in too long and a 3rd term and a 15 years stint in total would certainly be far too long. I even think Bertie in his heart of hearts is tired and would prefer a rest. Maybe long term we should put a limit in the length of time that a Taoiseach can govern, ie: for only 2 terms (10 years max). If anything, this may have favoured FF as a leader contest after the Dail was dissolved would at least give the people a new choice, and not a tired one. A Cowen-led FF may do better, or maybe not.

nesf wrote:

Boards definitely has a certain demographic separate to the populace as a whole.

It certainly does. I think from a psephological point of view it would be interesting if at least 1000 people were polled on here, and then re-polled to see how they voted in the last election, if they can remember, (I know I would have to think about where my STV actually ended up on count whatever it was), and then see which way they are changing coming up to the election date, normalising of course to match the general population. Even then, you would have inaccuracies of +/- 3%, and when there are many 'little' parties, such as GP, SF, PD's, etc, where that margin of error can make a huge huge difference in terms of seats.

Also, the national election is in fact 43x mini-constituency elections, each with its own vagaries and there are huge differences across the country with some areas being very FF, some FG, etc, and many areas wont have any from Lab or GP at all.

redspider

nesf

redspider wrote:

Also, the national election is in fact 43x mini-constituency elections, each with its own vagaries and there are huge differences across the country with some areas being very FF, some FG, etc, and many areas wont have any from Lab or GP at all.

Very true, I couldn't vote for the PDs even if I wanted to for example. In my old constituency my choices were even more limited though there's a Green running out of Bandon this year which confuses me. I thought you had to be resident in a constituency to stand for election there?

PH01

Tristrame wrote:

LoL you forgot stamp duty aswell

Stamp Duty is a tax isn't it?

Elmo

In my old constituency my choices were even more limited though there's a Green running out of Bandon this year which confuses me.

The green party has candidates across all 43 constituency's, and a 44th candidate in Dublin North.

They, as far as I remember, pretty much share the same voter base in Dublin for the most part. The PDs and Greens are fighting each other for the same votes essentially.

I cann't see people who vote for the Green party being anything like the people voting for the PDs. Surely the PDs have a more FG type voter.

ballooba

Would the result have been different three to six months ago?

I think it would, the shift is on.

E92

What is very encouraging from this poll is that either a Fine Gael/ Labour or alternatively the two parties with the Greens are the preferred choices of those that have voted so far. Most people that use sites like boards.ie or anything like that would be under 35. Given that we're always told that young people when they do actually do bother to vote vote for the Shinners and of all age groups are the least likely to vote for Fine Gael and Labour, this poll makes for very good reading from the Fine Gael point of view. One of the best things about the recent opinion polls was that apart from FGs rise in support of course was that(and I cant remember for the life of me which newspaper said it) our vote had in particluar increased amongst young people. I cant understand why this has happened but whatever the reason, I'm delighted oviously, I've always felt that if you attract the young people that do bother to vote that you will have them for life(its just an opinion, theres no facts to aruge my case of course!), maybe its to do with the fact that we are running excellent young candidates like Cllr Lucinda Creighton, and Dr Leo Varadkar which of course help to push up our vote in Dublin too, which of course is an area that is less likely to vote for Fine Gael than anywhere else in the country.

E92

The othery reall nice thing about this poll is how few want to see the Shinners in Government. I chose FG and Labour as I believe that that is the best way to get rid of FF and the PDs. The two parties have published a lot of joint policy documents and have had their statements on the economy and so on done together. Thats why I chose that option. The reason why I didnt choose FG, Lab and the Greens is that while the Greens would much prefer to go in with us and Labour, they have decided to contest the election as an independent party, something that I completely respect, but obviously the fact that FG and Lab are working more closely with one another means that that is the best solution. Personally, if we and Labour get in on our own, I think it would still be important that we work with the Greens and take what they say about energy efficient buildings etc seriously, because that of course is their trump card(enviornmental issues), along with being a much better protest vote option than a vote for SF for those who wish to vote that way and they are the Tommy Hilfiger of the political world as in they are very much a trendy party.

athtrasna

I voted "Other" and would like to see a FG/Labour/PD coalition. The Greens are mad on most issues other than the environment!

Dirk Gently

athtrasna wrote:

I voted "Other" and would like to see a FG/Labour/PD coalition.

Can't see that working at all. A lot of labour, especially labour youth (not that youth partys have any real influence) are finding it hard enough being tied to FG. I think a shift even further to the right would be unthinkable for labour. Labour aren't exactly left wing but they do use lefty language a bit too often to justify going in with the radical right PD's.

athtrasna

I know it's not a very realistic option but I really hate the idea of FG/Labour being held to ransom by the Greens.

Dirk Gently

tbh I think the greens would still be the better option (not that I'd ever dream of voting PD, but purely as an observation on stability). I think the closer the greens get to the hot seat of actually taking responsibility, they are mature enough to realise that while they can expect to gain something, they will have to accept they will be the minor party and the consessions they recieve will be reflected by that.

The gulf between Labour and the pd's would be of more concern to me. A lot of this scaremongering about the greens is projection from the PD's, desperate to make them appear as unatractive as possible because they know the greens will likely take over the pd's role as the minor government member.

Labour + PD's simply wouldn't work.

Boston

Wheres the pure FF option? I recently found am I'm able to vote.

Dirk Gently

Boston wrote:

Wheres the pure FF option?.

That would be the FF + PD option if you're looking for one party government

The_Minister

clown bag wrote:

Labour + PD's simply wouldn't work.

I was thinking about this earlier, and on alot of things they are the same (Universal health insurance was a PD policy up to recently). The main sticking point would be economics with PDs favoring deregulation, and Labour wanting to limit the private sector. If Labour go any further right then it actually could work (I'd hate to see it though!).
Most other issues (high-rise in Dublin etc,) they might work together. It would damage them both too much politically though.

Dirk Gently

The_Minister wrote:

I was thinking about this earlier

I'd imagine you're thinking of all sorts of PD combo's at this stage but I think Labour + PD in the same (functioning) government is a non runner. Sure, labour are for all intents and purposes a right of centre party but the membership still has lefty elements and I couldn't see those socialist elements going near the PD's neo-liberal agenda or vis versa. I think such a thought would be as horrifying to the PD's as it would to (some) labour members. Just think it's the most unlikely combo except for PD + SF in the same government.