It's the Economy Stupid

PH01

This is the main issue for me and when it comes to voting this will be top of everyones list.

So who do you reckon will be a safe pair of hands with the economy?
FF\PDs are at this stage doing it for me - they're getting my vote

darkman2

They are getting my vote for this reason. I dont see the other crowd being able to handle the economy as well as FF/PD coalition.

gandalf

TBH FF&PD's have had the economy when times have been good, given the absolute waste and lack of real progress in areas like infrastructure, the health service, public transport, a bloated Civil Service can we really trust them when it appears we are heading towards leaner times.

I honestly do not see how all the government cheerleaders can say they have done a good job looking at the list of absolutely messes that have occured on their watch at a time when unprecidented funds have been pouring into the countries coffers mainly because of actions of past governments.

It is.

Its the North too.

They're pretty on the money with both, though I think things are going so well with the North that not even FG could mess it up.

ballooba

darkman2 wrote:

They are getting my vote for this reason. I dont see the other crowd being able to handle the economy as well as FF/PD coalition.

Falling exports and personal debt fuelling a boom for property developers?

darkman2

ballooba wrote:

Falling exports and personal debt fuelling a boom for property developers?

The economy works in cycles - the question is who can handle it best. This goverment has been stable and actually very prudent therefore I would trust them more when the downturn comes. The proposed rainbow wont work IMO because fundamentally they all want different things. I dont think they will provide stable government. Remember nothing frightens off investors more then unstable government.

gandalf

Prudent!!! They have wasted money left right and centre in their term so tell me how can you say that in leaner times they can do any better ?

darkman2

gandalf wrote:

Prudent!!! They have wasted money left right and centre in their term so tell me how can you say that in leaner times they can do any better ?

I never said they could but Im not taking a risk with farcical rainbow governments that never work.

gandalf

darkman2 wrote:

I never said they could but Im not taking a risk with farcical rainbow governments that never work.

The same rainbow that created the foundation for the so-called Celtic Tiger.

My god FF&PD's couldn't do something as simple as introduce E-Voting how can you trust that they can handle the economy when it hits a downturn cycle?

Do you need me to list where monies were severely wasted and they're the ones that we are aware of.

InFront

I think it was Terry Prone on The Week in Politics last week, who pointed out the harsh fact that the broad electorate are not thankful, they will never vote out of gratefulness. If FFPDs are leaning on that crutch, they'll fall. And it looks like this might be the case.

Whether accurately or not, there is that feeling that the economy is running itself, that we are doing well despite the old FFPD government, not because of them.

I'm not saying that they've managed to ruin it, but they have wasted billions of euro and it's still ticking. What's more, they have failed to support the economy from an inevitable property slowdown by showing no interest in improving Ireland's industrial sector.
Lets not be so shortsighted, the reason why the economy is strong is down to the Governments of the 1980s and early 1990s, which did include Fianna Fail at one stage, but more importantly, the Rainbow Coalition. In 1996, they were the first Government to give this economy a budget surplus in thirty years!! That is when the boom began.

stepbar

Its FF for god sake, cue Bertie's and the famous figures he rolls out......

What about the LUAS Bertie? What about the new terminal in Dublin Airport? Whats that going to cost? 200 mil more than Ryanair's proposal? More? The NDP, will it get finished? Childcare when are you going to spend a few quid on it? What have you done about stamp duty? and etc etc etc I'll hand you something, ye are brave men trying to defend FF on the ecomony and anything else TBH.

nesf

gandalf wrote:

I honestly do not see how all the government cheerleaders can say they have done a good job looking at the list of absolutely messes that have occured on their watch at a time when unprecidented funds have been pouring into the countries coffers mainly because of actions of past governments.

And honestly I cannot understand people presenting this as irrefutable logic. Messes will happen in any Government, including FG/Lab/Green or whatever combination you wish to propose. It’s a question of whether on balance you think they got more right than wrong. So much of this is down to personal politics, i.e. a right wing government won’t on balance please a die-hard left winger and vice versa.

I don’t think that there is a whole lot of difference between Richard Bruton and Brian Cowen if you got the two of them drawing up budgets. Yes, there are some differences but they share a similar fairly right wing conservative style. I would be happy with either being Minister of Finance to be honest, however; I would not be enamoured of either the Greens or Labour having a big say in economic matters. That really is the reason why I’d prefer FF/PD to FG/Lab/Green (that and the promise of not cutting back on the NDP if there's a downturn which I strongly agree with). Christ I’d prefer FF/FG to having the Greens in Government! I know you and I will disagree on this, but it’s a matter of personal politics not actions of a previous Government tbh.

Dalfiatach

Our exports have stalled since 2001, a whopping 90% of those exports are produced by multinationals, construction/property make up 20% of our economy, the public sector hasn't been reformed in decades, our private sector debt is the highest in the entire world, we have a rapidly unwinding property bubble with nothing to take up the slack in terms of indiginous industry, inflation is out of control, the balance of payments slipped into the red a few years back and is rapidly getting worse, we're back in budget deficit country, we have handed away all our oil & gas reserves for nothing, we have laughable development of renewable energy, we have zero energy security, we have pretty much zero companies indigenous or foreign in the industries of the future, high-end jobs are bleeding away because of our position as the most expensive country in the entire EU, our planning system is non-existant, traffic congestion is costing billions, our infrastructure is a joke, every Government project seems to come in 6 years late costing 8 times as much as they originally said....and then turns out to be broken anyway....tolls and fees and charges springing up every other day, health and education and justice systems in total utter shambolic chaos, in Galway and Ennis the tap water is full of human sh1te, we've just been landed with yet another multi-million euro fine by the EU for yet another breach of pollution directives...

Lads, cop on to yourselves. This has been an appalling Government. They've wrecked the economy, but managed to coast through the last 5 years on a wave of ultra-low interest rates post 9/11 fueling a massive credit binge. And now rates are rising and its time to pay for the party, and we've got nothing to pay the bills with. Because Bertie and the lads fcuked it up, gave it away, sat on their arses, and were generally lazy, complacent, incompetent and corrupt.

Worst. Government. Ever.

Only an economic illiterate would think this shower of gombeen chancers have done a good job on the economy. When I look back on all the great reforming visionary hardworking Governments of all stripes from 1987 to 1997 and compare them to the last 10 years of misleadership, ineptitude, cluelessness, petty corruption, bare faced lies and crass cute-hoor arrogance I could cry.

stepbar

Dalfiatach wrote:

Our exports have stalled since 2001, a whopping 90% of those exports are produced by multinationals, construction/property make up 20% of our economy, the public sector hasn't been reformed in decades, our private sector debt is the highest in the entire world, we have a rapidly unwinding property bubble with nothing to take up the slack in terms of indiginous industry, inflation is out of control, the balance of payments slipped into the red a few years back and is rapidly getting worse, we're back in budget deficit country, we have handed away all our oil & gas reserves for nothing, we have laughable development of renewable energy, we have zero energy security, we have pretty much zero companies indigenous or foreign in the industries of the future, high-end jobs are bleeding away because of our position as the most expensive country in the entire EU, our planning system is non-existant, traffic congestion is costing billions, our infrastructure is a joke, every Government project seems to come in 6 years late costing 8 times as much as they originally said....and then turns out to be broken anyway....tolls and fees and charges springing up every other day, health and education and justice systems in total utter shambolic chaos, in Galway and Ennis the tap water is full of human sh1te, we've just been landed with yet another multi-million euro fine by the EU for yet another breach of pollution directives...

Lads, cop on to yourselves. This has been an appalling Government. They've wrecked the economy, but managed to coast through the last 5 years on a wave of ultra-low interest rates post 9/11 fueling a massive credit binge. And now rates are rising and its time to pay for the party, and we've got nothing to pay the bills with. Because Bertie and the lads fcuked it up, gave it away, sat on their arses, and were generally lazy, complacent, incompetent and corrupt.

Worst. Government. Ever.

Only an economic illiterate would think this shower of gombeen chancers have done a good job on the economy. When I look back on all the great reforming visionary hardworking Governments of all stripes from 1987 to 1997 and compare them to the last 10 years of misleadership, ineptitude, cluelessness, petty corruption, bare faced lies and crass cute-hoor arrogance I could cry.

QFT

gandalf

Dalfiatach that has to be the one of the best posts I have seen on this board in ages.

nesf

gandalf wrote:

Dalfiatach that has to be the one of the best posts I have seen on this board in ages.

If by that you mean the kind of "my point of view is the only correct point of view" post that typifies much of the contributions in this forum then sure. As a post it just strikes me as an ill-formed rant heavy on picked examples and low on economic argument.

Dalfiatach wrote:

Only an economic illiterate would think this shower of gombeen chancers have done a good job on the economy.

That's an interesting claim for someone who thinks Galway's water system is an integral part of the economic performance of the Government.

stepbar

Off you go nesf, post a retort that defends the performance of FF when it comes to the management of the economy. It should be interesting to say the least.

ronbyrne2005

The economy boomed DESPITE this government. And anyone who thinks the economy as it stands is sound is a fool.

nesf

stepbar wrote:

Off you go nesf, post a retort that defends the performance of FF when it comes to the management of the economy. It should be interesting to say the least.

Why would I waste my time arguing with the converted? If people don't seem to be able to separate policy issues from economic issues in their rants what hope is that they know what they are talking about?

stepbar

nesf wrote:

Why would I waste my time arguing with the converted?

Ah nesf, you see there is no argument. So I suppose you would be wasting your time posting a retort. In the past 5 years FF have mismanaged the economy and wasted more money then the previous governments put together. In fairness its all about the ecomony. The economy is what provides people with wealth, jobs etc; thats what it boils down to. Think of all the other policies that could have been implemented had the money been available. Jeasus when I think about all the money wasted it makes my blood boil. An Utter Shambles........

Jackz

Dalfiatach wrote:

Our exports have stalled since 2001, a whopping 90% of those exports are produced by multinationals, we have a rapidly unwinding property bubble with nothing to take up the slack in terms of indiginous industry, we have pretty much zero companies indigenous or foreign in the industries of the future, high-end jobs are bleeding away because of our position as the most expensive country in the entire EU.

As ICT moved for cheaper labour and ICT as a whole adjusted from its own bubble:

Forfas:
The pharmachem and ICT/Machinery sectors have had contrasting export performances over the last few years. Pharmachem exports have been expanded by 77.6% as new multinational production plants come on stream while the "hollowing–out" of ICT manufacturing appears to be continuing with multinationals increasingly moving production to locations in Eastern Europe and Asia. The value of ICT (Information and Communication Technology)exports fell by 12.7% between 1999 and 2004.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has made its employment projections for the years 2002 to 2012, and has predicted that of the 21 million new jobs expected by 2012, more than 20 million jobs will be in the service-providing industries, while less than 1 million will be within the goods-producing industries.

So the issue of jobs in manufacturing is a first world problem not just an Irish problem.

Of the stated growth industries of the future where Ireland given its size, location etc can be players:

Computer systems design and related services: Google, Amazon and paypal/ebay came to Ireland after the dot bomb. Google for example have a reputation of only hiring the very best.

Management, scientific, and technical consulting services; FF have proposed clear policies to encourage graduates to reach Phd level and promote research and development. No other party has.

Pharmachem will continue to grow as the world population ages.

Financial and business services.

nesf

stepbar wrote:

In the past 5 years FF have mismanaged the economy and wasted more money then the previous governments put together. In fairness its all about the ecomony, the economy is what provides people with wealth, jobs etc. Think of all the other policies that could have been implemented had the money been available. Jeasus when I think about all the money wasted it makes my blood boil. An Utter Shambles........

You don't actually understand what economic management is about, do you?

Read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_policy and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy and then come back and argue the elements of Fiscal policy that FF have ****ed up in the past 10 years and try to remember with the ECB setting our interest rates it's not the same as pre-euro times.


Edit: I'll be nice and give you a hint. Look at McCreevy's budgets.

stepbar

nesf wrote:

You don't actually understand what economic management is about, do you?

Read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_policy and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy and then come back and argue the elements of Fiscal policy that FF have ****ed up in the past 10 years and try to remember with the ECB setting our interest rates it's not the same as pre-euro times.

O so now its the EU's fault. How many more people / parties / unions are you going to blame? FF is responsible for the fashion in which public money was spent, so yes they are responsible for the way in which the economy is managed. How long are you going to flog this dead horse?

nesf

stepbar wrote:

O so now its the EU's fault. How many more people / parties / unions are you going to blame? FF is responsible for the fashion in which public money was spent, so yes they are responsible for the way in which the economy is managed. How long are you going to flog this dead horse?

No. It's just economic reality changed completely with the ECB taking over. Our interest rates don't reflect our local situation at all and we happen to be out of sync with the broader European cycle, so (from an economic point of view) when we needed high interest rates we had low ones and this screwed with a lot of things, not just the housing market.

If you want to criticise FF's handling of the economy you have to attack their fiscal policy. This isn't difficult, just bring up McCreevy's budget before the 2002 election if you want a easy example. The thing is that Brian Cowen is a much better Minister of Finance (from my point of view) and as you'd have read in my original post either him or Richard Bruton would be in my opinion the best of a bad lot in economic management. The only difference for me in all of this is who the different coalitions are made up of not the core parties. If it was FF/Lab versus FG/PDs I'd vote FG.

stepbar

nesf wrote:

No. It's just economic reality changed completely with the ECB taking over. Our interest rates don't reflect our local situation at all and we happen to be out of sync with the broader European cycle, so (from an economic point of view) when we needed high interest rates we had low ones and this screwed with a lot of things, not just the housing market.

If you want to criticise FF's handling of the economy you have to attack their fiscal policy. This isn't difficult, just bring up McCreevy's budget before the 2002 election if you want a easy example. The thing is that Brian Cowen is a much better Minister of Finance (from my point of view) and as you'd have read in my original post either him or Richard Bruton would be in my opinion the best of a bad lot in economic management. The only difference for me in all of this is who the different coalitions are made up of not the core parties. If it was FF/Lab versus FG/PDs I'd vote FG.

FF could have easily implemented a tax policy that penalised speculators by taxing them for their 2nd, 3rd, 4th (and so on) property. And penalties for speculators selling on within 2 - 3 or so years. They could have been a lot less generous with the Section 23's and other tax incentives etc. There was so many things they could have done. Instead they let the economy ride away on the back of a property boom as long as it kept the boys at the Galway races happy.

Tell me what is the point in cutting taxes, if you cant spend the money propertly? Its counterproductive if the money it generates is absorbed in paying Civil Servents, overspends and trying to plug the Health service.

nesf

stepbar wrote:

FF could have easily implemented a tax policy that penalised speculators by taxing them for their 2nd, 3rd, 4th (and so on) property. And penalties for speculators selling on within 2 - 3 or so years. They could have been a lot less generous with the Section 23's and other tax incentives etc. There was so many things they could have done. Instead they let the economy ride away on the back of a property boom as long as it kept the boys at the Galway races happy.

Tell me what is the point in cutting taxes, if you cant spend the money propertly? Its counterproductive if the money it generates is absorbed in paying Civil Servents, overspends and trying to plug the Health service.

What has any of that got to do with my post?

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

stepbar

nesf wrote:

What has any of that got to do with my post?

They could have used taxation and other non fiscal policies to manage the economy. Thats my point. The SSIA scheme was a welcome approach to reducing consumer spending and incouraging people to save. The housing boom should have been tackled 5 years ago. Christ it didnt need to be killed off, the heat needed to be taken out of the property boom. Whats the point in having low taxes if first time buyers cant afford a house? If someone wants to have 10 investment properties on the go, tax them for it. If someone with a wage of over 50k wants to buy a Section 23 property tax them. Imagine, you had millionaires buying Section 23's all over the country just to avoid paying tax. Madness. Now we're faced with the abolition of Stamp Duty which will stoke things further and keep the charade going. Madness.

nesf

stepbar wrote:

The housing boom should have been tackled 5 years ago. Christ it didnt need to be killed off, the heat needed to be taken out of the property boom. Whats the point in having low taxes if first time buyers cant afford a house? If someone wants to have 10 investment properties on the go, tax them for it. If someone with a wage of over 50k wants to buy a Section 23 property tax them. Imagine, you had millionaires buying Section 23's all over the country just to avoid paying tax. Madness. Now we're faced with the abolition of Stamp Duty which will stoke things further and keep the charade going. Madness.

Look, I agree about the housing market being an utter mess but I wouldn't solely put the blame on the Government. They did try and curb it and the market wobbled badly and they got scared off and they saw a cut in stamp duty just drive up prices across the board. I don't blame Cowen for not wanting to touch stamp duty etc over the past few years, nobody could give an accurate prediction of how much of a change would cool things off and not crash the thing. It was better to not crash it and let the interest rates cool it down slowly (i.e. what's been happening for the past 6 months and before then). If FF had pushed hard legislation against investors they risked bursting the damn thing which would have been far worse for the economy on balance imho.


However, fiscal policy across the parties' manifestos does differ. The whole stamp duty being abolished thing is not the same across the board. FF are proposing to take the least amount of money out of it and just abolish it for FTBs who really only contribute a very small amount of stamp duty in the first place. The opposition propose a much bigger cut in rates which would take a lot more money from stamp duty and essentially dump it back into the economy. If you want to pick fiscal holes in party manifestos just take a look at how much money they want to put back into the economy with tax cuts etc.

Things are changing because interest rates have risen and are still rising and look very unlikely to fall back down again which changes things a bit but when you get right down to it on (proposed) fiscal policy there isn't a whole lot to make one want a change in Government in my opinion.

McSandwich

nesf wrote:

FF are proposing to take the least amount of money out of it and just abolish it for FTBs who really only contribute a very small amount of stamp duty in the first place.

It's a good idea in principle but in reality this proposal is of more benefit to sellers. At present ftbs look to stay below the stamp duty threshold (€317,500). Developers and sellers target this market (to some degree and mainly outside Dublin).

Simply removing stamp duty will allow sellers to up their prices (even by a little) and keep the ftbs market. Who will that benefit?

nesf

I agree, I'd prefer to see no change at all but it would be political suicide to do so I think.