Can Mary Lou take a seat in DC?

Glenbhoy

Current betting:
Bertie Ahern (FF) 1 - 500
Tony Gregory (Ind) 1 - 6
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 1 - 5
Joe Costello (Lab) 1-3 2 - 5
Paschal Donohoe (FG) evens
Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) 2 - 1
Patricia McKenna (Green) 10-3 11-4 9 - 4
Cyprian Brady (FF) 5 - 2
Cieran Perry (Ind) 20 - 1
Alan Beirne (FRR) 100 - 1
Paul O' Loughlin (CS) 100 - 1
Tom Prenderville (Ind) 100 - 1

In other words, Bert, Gregory and Mary Lou are shoo-ins, toss up between Donohoe and Costello, with Costello favourite - according to paddypower there will be no 2nd FF seat - if you think differently argue with Mr. Power, not me.

lostexpectation

Jon wrote:

Thats true of late, however when she was first elected she was over there pretty much all the time. Then she dropped the kid and it was decided pretty much a long time back that she would be standing in the generals. I reckon she'll be a good addition to the SF team, she'll bring some colour to the grey boring site that is the current rack of TD'S - Aonghas excluded

the colour orange ironically.

Cyrus

Glenbhoy wrote:

Current betting:
Bertie Ahern (FF) 1 - 500
Tony Gregory (Ind) 1 - 6
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 1 - 5
Joe Costello (Lab) 1-3 2 - 5
Paschal Donohoe (FG) evens
Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) 2 - 1
Patricia McKenna (Green) 10-3 11-4 9 - 4
Cyprian Brady (FF) 5 - 2
Cieran Perry (Ind) 20 - 1
Alan Beirne (FRR) 100 - 1
Paul O' Loughlin (CS) 100 - 1
Tom Prenderville (Ind) 100 - 1

In other words, Bert, Gregory and Mary Lou are shoo-ins, toss up between Donohoe and Costello, with Costello favourite - according to paddypower there will be no 2nd FF seat - if you think differently argue with Mr. Power, not me.

yeah paddy power knows who is going to get elected, FFS

SeanW

Cyrus wrote:

added to that sargant and rabbitt are idiots

Your debating skills are top notch I see ...

Cyrus

SeanW wrote:

Your debating skills are top notch I see ...

mmmm you see that comment would indicate that my statement is open to debate, it isnt

you can add kenny to the list aswell.

dont get me wrong FF, PD arent perfect but they are the best we have got, thats why FG and Labour have been kept out for 10 years and hopefully will be kept out for another 5. they just havent got people of the calibre of cowan, mcdowell and harney in their ranks.

Guys less of the penis waving posts please.
Stay on topic-thank you.

is_that_so

Cyrus wrote:

i hope the pds and ff get in again and that sinn fein go back where they belong, whatever people are thinking voting in socialists, do they even realise what they are doing

Most likely they are doing what is right from their perspective much as your own perspectives inform your voting patterns.

On topic, I reckon it will be an interesting contest. Bertie will certainly have enough to give a second FF seat a chance. Given the rise of the Greens and the environment being so high profile, I think it will be a battle between the two MEPs. IMO Patricia McKenna would be of greater benefit to the next Dail but it remains to be seen how well SF will be doing after a few weeks of people asking them questions about their "manifesto".

Glenbhoy

Cyrus wrote:

yeah paddy power knows who is going to get elected, FFS

As I said Cyrus, take it up with paddypower if you've got a problem with their prices - in fact, thinking about it, since you're convinced they're wrong (and they often are) why don't you part with a little of your hard earned cash and invest it in your chosen candidate, since paddypower are so far off the mark, you should make a tidy packet.

yomchi

i hope the pds and ff get in again and that sinn fein go back where they belong

And where exactly do they belong? And not to burst your bubble but the 2% party have blown their chances of any credibility, and as for FF..:rolleyes:

patsyh

Jon wrote:

Thats true of late, however when she was first elected she was over there pretty much all the time. Then she dropped the kid and it was decided pretty much a long time back that she would be standing in the generals. I reckon she'll be a good addition to the SF team, she'll bring some colour to the grey boring site that is the current rack of TD'S - Aonghas excluded

So she is gettting paid a fortune by the people of Ireland to represent us in Europe and she doesnt bother doing it. She should have resigned.:mad:

What'll be the craic if she gets elected to the Dail, dont bother going in because somebody has to collect the kid.

yomchi

collecting a kid and having a kid are two very different events Patsy.

As for getting paid a fortune by the people of Ireland.. hmm how so? All monies relevant to the Euroopean parliament are administered by itself. Apart from that no SF MEP, TD or MLA receives the full salary, they receive the average industrial wage.

patsyh

Jon wrote:

collecting a kid and having a kid are two very different events Patsy.

As for getting paid a fortune by the people of Ireland.. hmm how so? All monies relevant to the Euroopean parliament are administered by itself. Apart from that no SF MEP, TD or MLA receives the full salary, they receive the average industrial wage.

Where does the EU get its money.

Fortune is in €80k plus, that every MEP gets, what she does with it is irrelevant. Having a kid prob is 8 or 9 mths off straight away and then your still not going to be able to commit 100% to her job(which is a couple of thousand miles away) therefore she should have resigned and let somebody who was willing to give 100% commitment to the job(and I know alot of Irelands other MEPs dont give 100% commitment but that is not the point here)

redspider

This is a 4 seat constituency and last time out it was 2xFF, 1xLab and 1xInd, correct? I could be wrong on that. Bertie, Gregory, Costellow (Lab), but who was the 4th?

Anyway, here is the latest betting which would seem to indicate that Mary Lou has a good chance of getting in. The hawkers on Mary St and Henry St swear by her. Bertie will get in but I dont think he will pull in somebody else.

Bertie Ahern (FF) 1 - 500
Tony Gregory (Ind) 1 - 6
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 1 - 5
Joe Costello (Lab) 2 - 5
Paschal Donohoe (FG) evens
Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) 2 - 1
Patricia McKenna (Green) 9 - 4


Here's a question though, why is Patricia McKenna, a well recognised face in Irish politics, running in this constiuency, when she would have more of a chance most likely in anoher constituency? seems a strange choice, and from the Green Party election chairperson too ....

Redspider

redspider

patsyh wrote:

Having a kid prob is 8 or 9 mths off straight away and then your still not going to be able to commit 100% to her job(which is a couple of thousand miles away) therefore she should have resigned and let somebody who was willing to give 100% commitment to the job(and I know alot of Irelands other MEPs dont give 100% commitment but that is not the point here)

No, you cant discriminate against a Woman for having a baby, which is a right to have, and we as a society, both in Ireland and in the EU, need to protect Women's rights in relation to their employment in terms of pregnancy and young-child rearing. (and also Fathers by the way).

Expecting someone to resign because they've had a baby is a very blinkered view.

Redspider

patsyh

redspider wrote:

No, you cant discriminate against a Woman for having a baby, which is a right to have, and we as a society, both in Ireland and in the EU, need to protect Women's rights in relation to their employment in terms of pregnancy and young-child rearing. (and also Fathers by the way).

Expecting someone to resign because they've had a baby is a very blinkered view.

Redspider

You cant have that blanket approach to every job, be realistic her job was a couple of thousand miles away from her home, so yes I think it is appropriate that she should have resigned because the seat which she won came with a responsibility to represent her community/Country and how is she going to do that is she is not attending Parliament and voting on issues that affect her constituency and Country?. Politics is a serious profession that requires big commitments and sacrifices because of the responsibilities that are attached to it.

She was getting paid big bucks for doing nothing, doesn't make sense why her employer should have paid her when she wasn't doing the job that she signed up to do. Wouldnt happen in any other profession

aidan24326

Can Mary Lou take a seat in DC?

-Hopefully not.

yomchi

insightful

E92

I'd love to say no she hasnt a hope but the truth is that Mary Lou will definately get in.She was carrying the coffin of an IRA man not so long ago IIRC. I think Doherty unfortunately will get in in Donegal North East too(at our expense), but I dont think that Joe Mc Hugh for FG should be written off either in Donegal South West. He has a good chance, as does Ciarán Lynch for Labour surprisingly in Cork South Central, he is supposed to be within a good chance of getting the last seat(what would be really nice is if he and either Jerry Buttimer or Deirdre Clune got in and Feel and Fail were reduced to 1 seat(out of 5) here. The likely outcome though is 2XFF(down 1 seat), 2XFG(up1) and 1XGreen though.

yomchi

I'd love to say no she hasnt a hope but the truth is that Mary Lou will definately get in.She was carrying the coffin of an IRA man not so long ago IIRC.

proper reason not to be elected that. If that WAS the case half the labour party shouldn't be elected either :rolleyes:

I never come across so many idiotic reasons for someone not to get elected,
1, she had a baby

2, she carries coffins

3, i don't like her

God forbid she shouldn't get elected because of her parties policies, that just wouldn't be politics would it.

McSpud

In 2002 seats were won in order:
Bertie
Gregory
Costello
Fitzpatrick

Bertie monopolies the vote so serious mistake for FF to go with 3 candidates.

My prediction is:
Bertie
Gregory
McDonald (based on high SF vote last time plus rise in SF vote nationally)
Costello/Donohue/McKenna

FF candidates Fitzpatrick & Brady are very poor. Brady is old enough & afaik never elected. (Bertie gave him his Senate seat)

Bertie sent me a letter a couple of months ago promising an amber filter light at junction (it could be suggested the Taoiseach might have other things to do) onto the Navan Road. He only has a few days before the Election to avoid adding to his broken promises!!! :mad:

flogen

The_Minister wrote:

Labour say they oppose raising corporation tax (we all know why thats bad-flight of business, jobs etc), but they support European tax harmonisation, which in effect would raise our corporation tax.[/SIZE]

Sorry to go off topic but no, they don't. That was one of McDowell's numerous flights of fancy to scare voters in Dublin South Central.

The Greens do support corporation tax harmonisation across the island of Ireland at 12.5%, however, which would fit with their all-Ireland status (and no, I'm not a Green member or supporter I just hate seeing partisan spin get accepted as fact).

On Mary Lou - I think she might edge the final seat. If she can take enough of Kehoe's votes she'll be doing well and she seems to be getting a lot of appeal from the female vote in the constituency. Not who will lose out because of it, though - I think FF might even though it would be a huge shock for Bertie's homeground.

Bateman

This isn't my constituency we're talking about here, but I have heard from a lot of people both pro and anti SF, that she has a decent shout for the second seat. As has been said, 3 FF candidates is a mistake, and might be a costly one. Why on earth would you want to marginalise someone like Fitzpatrick to drag along another one of the inept Brady bunch?

The White Rose

Is Gregory really that hot a favourite to get in?

I think he could be in trouble if the big parties attract the votes because the election is so close

spurious

Mary Lou is a special case - she doesn't suffer from the Shinner taint - sure how could a lovely looking girl like that have anything to do with frightening beardy nordie-accented Provos who blow people to bits?

That photograph on her posters must be the best spent few bob in Irish politics in a long time.

Ahern, Gregory, McDonald and Costello.

AlanOB

My bold prediction: The left vote will be split between McKenna, Costello and McDonald thus electing one of them only (probably Costello) and allowing Bertie to bring in one of his two running mates.

Incidentally what a retarded decision to run three candidates. Mary Fitzpatrick has every right to be angry if the decision was just made in order to get Cyprian in.

flogen

Bateman wrote:

This isn't my constituency we're talking about here, but I have heard from a lot of people both pro and anti SF, that she has a decent shout for the second seat. As has been said, 3 FF candidates is a mistake, and might be a costly one. Why on earth would you want to marginalise someone like Fitzpatrick to drag along another one of the inept Brady bunch?

Well the talk is that Fitzpatrick was added to the FF ticket to deflect the female vote away from McDonald - basically they figured she'd be so popular amongst women (as the only female candidate at the time) that she'd be a shoe-in, but if they could dilute that and take away the novelty it would weaken her support and force it back onto the traditional SF core.

spurious wrote:

Mary Lou is a special case - she doesn't suffer from the Shinner taint - sure how could a lovely looking girl like that have anything to do with frightening beardy nordie-accented Provos who blow people to bits?

Funny you should say that because there's rarely been a photo of Gerry Adams in recent months that didn't have McDonald at his side - the party have been playing a careful game of balance here, giving McDonald some of Adams' reflected glory as a popular politician but keeping her distant enough to seem like a pure-bred politician - not a scary provo/politician cross.

irish_bob

i cant stand mary lou , i reckon the woman has never uttered a spontanous sentence in her life , but then again being from sinn fein , thats understandable
shes so naff , she speaks in that inane way , yet notice how even she speaks on a subject for an extended period of time , you always have to ask yourself , what was that about , i cant remember a thing you said there

shes the pretty face of the shinner ticket and will get a considerable number of votes merely for being in that party , sinn fein are targetting the non voter and doing well out of it , the kind of demographic who has no history of every voting

having said all that , i think she will probably get in , and word has it joe costello may be in trouble , on top of that those who vote for patrical mc kenna , in other wards green voters how for the most part have no common sense may send transfers to mary lou

Bottle_of_Smoke

The Fine Gael canvassers came around looking for me to vote for Paschal Donohue. Told them I couldn't because of Kenny. He then went on to ask for a preference because Paschal's competing with Mary-Lou for the last seat.

Not fully sure if they meant it genuinely or just wanted a preference. Still not giving them one!