Are the party leaders guaranteed seats?

brianthebard

iirc Michael Noonan had a hard time getting elected when he was leader of FG, and only got in on the second or third count(if I'm wrong sorry, its a few years ago now). With so much apparent aggression against the present government, is Ahern and McDowell safe? What about the other parties? I'm pretty sure that Kenny is a dead cert, the Mayo people would love to have a party leader/taoiseach from there. any thoughts? I know it doesn't happen often that party leaders fail to get their seat, but has it ever?

brianthebard

brianthebard wrote:

I know it doesn't happen often that party leaders fail to get their seat, but has it ever?

Frank Cluskey lost his seat when Labour leader I think, in 1981.

Of course ex leaders like Dukes and Spring have lost them too.

Oirthir

I reckon Ahern is safe as houses (not the dodgy kind Celia does up mind you).

As for McDowell, honestly I reckon he could be a bit touch and go.

DMC

Kenny won't top the poll in Mayo. His stablemate Michael Ring normally out-performs him. Enda Kenny was seventh on first preferences alone in 2002, and was on shakey ground for a lot of that count. He got half a quota, along with half a dozen others too.

John Bruton topped the poll when he was Taoiseach, an award which normally went to Noel Dempsey in Meath.

threebeards

DMC wrote:

Kenny won't top the poll in Mayo. His stablemate Michael Ring normally out-performs him. Enda Kenny was seventh on first preferences alone in 2002, and was on shakey ground for a lot of that count. He got half a quota, along with half a dozen others too.

You're right. I expect Michael Ring to top the poll with Enda a strong 2nd. I too think that McDowell could struggle.

Badabing

Do u tink Fine Gael need 3 seats in Mayo to get into goverment?

brianthebard

DMC wrote:

Kenny won't top the poll in Mayo. His stablemate Michael Ring normally out-performs him. Enda Kenny was seventh on first preferences alone in 2002, and was on shakey ground for a lot of that count. He got half a quota, along with half a dozen others too.

He wasn't leader then though, I think that could mean a lot. He's very popular with people in the constituency and very involved in GAA and stuff, turning up for fairly small under age finals and the like. But I'm not going to predict where he'll come in, I haven't a clue.

delta_bravo

Mc Dowell has never been re-elected. He always wins seat - loses seat - wins back. His constituency is highly competitive with Gormley,Ruairi Quinn, Lucinda Creighton, Chris Andrews and some more

stepbar

Kenny should top the poll, thats if he wants to be serious about being in Government. As McDowell, he has serious competition from all the other parties. Bertie should be safe, the Drumcondra mafia will see him through. As for Rabbitte I dont know but he should be ok. Trevor Sargent is a certainty as is Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (in his unofficial leader capacity) for Sinn Fein

DMC

brianthebard wrote:

He wasn't leader then though, I think that could mean a lot. He's very popular with people in the constituency and very involved in GAA and stuff, turning up for fairly small under age finals and the like. But I'm not going to predict where he'll come in, I haven't a clue.

Thats what surprised me that he did become leader, when his seat wasn't the safest FG seat in the country (after 2002, what FG seat was?)

Being leader will give him a boost, though. Three FG seats in Mayo require good vote management, and I wonder will Michael Ring let a few first prefs drift away to John O'Mahony. Ring to top the poll, Kenny 2nd close-ish behind, ideally with a quota, and O'Mahony to pick up the 2nd prefs.

testicle

Her Goebells is going to find it very hard.

delta_bravo

testicle wrote:

Her Goebells is going to find it very hard.

Richard Bruton?:rolleyes:

threebeards

DMC wrote:

Being leader will give him a boost, though. Three FG seats in Mayo require good vote management, and I wonder will Michael Ring let a few first prefs drift away to John O'Mahony. Ring to top the poll, Kenny 2nd close-ish behind, ideally with a quota, and O'Mahony to pick up the 2nd prefs.

I agree that his leadership will certainly give him a boost but I still feel that Ring will top the poll. FF are in dire straits down here and will ship votes in Castlebar, ironically to FG, at the expense of Frank Chambers. Beverly will probably take the 3rd seat. I would imagine that Dara Calleary (FF) in Ballina will take the 4th - I think after the last election, the Ballina electorate will be ensuring they have local representation in the Dail. The 5th seat could go anywhere depending on transfers but I would be surprised if one of the outgoing TD's, either John Carty (who? I hear some of you say:D ) or Jerry Cowley will lose out and possibly even both. It would be great vote management if FG managed to get a 3rd.

What are your thoughts on Ballina OscarBravo?

blorg

I suspect testicle is referring to the slinger of the remark rather than the target. I'd put my money on McDowell to be the most likely of the party leaders to lose his seat, certainly. As delta_bravo says, it's a competitive constituency.

oscarBravo

threebeards wrote:

What are your thoughts on Ballina OscarBravo?

I think you're on the money - I'm hearing talk of voting 1, 2, 3 for the three local candidates, regardless of party loyalties. (Did youse know we have a PD candidate in Ballina?)

There's definitely an appetite for a local TD, as Ballina is starting to feel very neglected since the last election. Calleary is probably the most likely candidate, although I'm surprised I'm not hearing more about Michelle Mulherin.

Kenny will definitely benefit from the leadership, and may push Ring off the top of the poll. The Chambers/Carty situation is interesting, as Chambers won his nomination largely due to support from east Mayo - Carty's home turf.

I don't think Cowley will hold his seat. A rough guess at this stage would be Kenny, Ring, Carty/Chambers (can't make my mind up), Calleary, Flynn.

It's always close here, and it's all to play for.

athtrasna

Toughest of the current party leaders is definitely McDowell but his party colleague and former PD Leader Mary Harney has the most precarious high profile seat in the country in my opinion. Fair enough, she doesn't even live in her constituency and know what it's like to spend hours on the N4/N7 EVERY day!

axer

I pray that McDougal doesnt get re-elected.

athtrasna

If the PDs pull out today his re-election chances improve. Stupid electorate will probably see it as a sign of his integrity

E92

On the other hand they will know that one certainty is that the PDs wont be in Government next time round(if they do what they are expected to do) why should I vote for him/her if his/her party wont be in power next time?

brianthebard

One could almost say that about any small party or independant over the last twenty years. It has more to do with expecting a party or person to get into government, there are local issues and party policies to think about.

wow sierra

It was Sinn Féin transfers that pushed Mc Daowell over the Quota to be elected in 2002. One of my favourite anorak stats from the last election. I'm sure he would have got through on the next count anyway but it does make a good story to illustrate the complexity of the voter and the good old pr system.

Dandesav

testicle wrote:

Her Goebells is going to find it very hard.

I was around his constituency today and I couldn't believe how few posters there were for him! At least he's the only FG candidate so the vote won't get split and Labour transfers should help, but they really can't afford to lose Bruton!!