Will Varadkar (FG) be a part-time TD?

E92

Well the rest of them come across as snug and arrogant, plus Lenihan comes across as realising that problems exist, whereas the others think that the country wouldnt exist if they were out of power.
P.S thanks for correcting me Rainy Day

Wisheress

thelepo wrote:

I'm not a FG fan by any stretch of the imagination, but I really think that we would need a source on an allegation such as this. This would influence ones vote. I don't think that it is fair to Varadkar to post rumours on sites such as these. He will not be getting my vote, but I would like to see a fair race.

All the best,
John

What rumours did he post?

thelepo

For a start he said that he had 'heard' that Varadkar would only be a part time TD. I think we need a bit of confirmation on this before we start makng judgements.

thelepo

BostonB wrote:

I'd say it will be Varadkar > Joan Burton > Lenihan.

I'm not keen on Varadkar but hes literally everywhere and make noise about everything. Kinda annoying tbh seem like he'd go to the opening of a crisp packet. Burton seem to have increased her presence too, though I think you do see her getting involved on the ground in lots of issues than the others. With all the problems in D.15, especially schools Lenihan has to have lost a lot of support. But the FF diehards won't be swayed. I think Higgins will come in after the rest. I don't even know who standing for the greens, their presence is so low.

Roderic O'Gorman is standing for the Greens. I don't know where you live, but there are a ton of Green O'Gorman posters out my way and he has been canvassing like the hokies since last June.
He also uses youtube to canvass online, see his website and blog www.rodericogorman.com

Bunnyhopper

thelepo wrote:

For a start he said that he had 'heard' that Varadkar would only be a part time TD. I think we need a bit of confirmation on this before we start makng judgements.

Exactly: I clearly presented it as nothing more than rumour and hearsay. I certainly didn't present it as fact, nor did I make any judgement on it: I think anyone reading the original post ought to be able to see that.

I think the sort of people who read these boards are capable of judging the value of the material posted on them, and are well able to tell a rumour from a fact (particularly when it comes with the word "rumour" attached).

Leaving aside for a moment the question of whether this rumour is true or false (I still don't know), I have to say that I disliked your use of the word "allegation" (in "an allegation such as this"), and of the word "only" (in "would only be a part time TD"). They strike me as rather more judgemental than anything I said.

I agree that "we need a bit of confirmation" (or refutation) before making any judgements, but then that's what I asked for in the original post.

murphaph

I'm also in D15 and voted for Lenihan the last time. I was duped by FF and I hold my hands up to it. I will not make that mistake this time. I am not alone. I believe Varadkar will win a seat, as will Burton (lots and lots of meetings in school halls about transport and education!). Don't know about the third but I'd like Higgins over Lenihan obviously as I want FF OUT! D15 hasn't exactly done well out of the last 5 years. Chronic traffic, lack of schools in the new estates, crime (or at least perceived crime). What has been done? No feeder buses to non-existant trains that are already full to bursting. Varadkar actually commutes daily on the 0630 train from Coolmine-this alone will win him votes.

JupiterKid

It would be great to see FF get booted out of Dublin West completely come this election but there are plently of die hard FF voters who would elect a FF candidate of it was a Jack Russell dog. Mindless sheep! But in reality D15 have done poorly in the past 5 years - chronic traffic congestion and all the major problems associated with huge growth in population but no corresponding provision of facilities like schools, creches or public transport.

In 1975, it took about 30 mins to travel by bus from Clonsilla to the city centre. In 2007, 32 years later, the same journey takes over an hour. Enough said. Let the people of Dublin 15 deliver their verdict of the current government on the 24th.

thelepo

Bunnyhopper wrote:

Exactly: I clearly presented it as nothing more than rumour and hearsay. I certainly didn't present it as fact, nor did I make any judgement on it: I think anyone reading the original post ought to be able to see that.

I think the sort of people who read these boards are capable of judging the value of the material posted on them, and are well able to tell a rumour from a fact (particularly when it comes with the word "rumour" attached).

Leaving aside for a moment the question of whether this rumour is true or false (I still don't know), I have to say that I disliked your use of the word "allegation" (in "an allegation such as this"), and of the word "only" (in "would only be a part time TD"). They strike me as rather more judgemental than anything I said.

I agree that "we need a bit of confirmation" (or refutation) before making any judgements, but then that's what I asked for in the original post.

Yes, I agree with you. Allegation was a bit strong. Curse internet diplomacy.
All the best

segadreamcast

clown bag wrote:

Ahh I'm only having a bit of fun with ye.

All partys have their odd ball members, just wish he wasn't up in my area. unfortunetly the realistic winners in dub north west are limited to an IRA bomb maker, the two FF'ers, mad bill and Rosin shorthall. Green party wont get a look in and then theres a few workers party heads and an independant socialist. I may have to limit my vote to Labour and a token green vote and possibly the independant socialist. Which in reality means I'm voting just for labour.

My god, yes, isn't our Green candidate just a complete joke? Declan something-or-other. I wouldn't mind but, talking to a lot of people in our area, it seems to be very much a case of "I would vote for the Green candidate but *this* guy...". Real shame. FF/Lab and possibly a SF seat to be had here? I'll be going Tormey/Carey/Shorthall myself though - with SF safely last preference.

BostonB

More like I would vote for the green party if I knew who the candidate was! There was a golden opportunity to get involved with local issues for the greens over the last few years while FF and PD's were off playing monopoly. The greens didn't grasp it though. IMO.

Nevyn

Have any of ye been to any of the meeting Vardakar has called over the last 2 years ?
The ones on schools, the new roads, new buildings ?

He brings the plans and takes the time to answer questions and makes sure everyone who wishes to ask and understand what the proposed plans are will mean for where they live and has also fallicated people lodging objections.

He grew up here and still lives here and honest I am surpised that I would consdier voting for any ff/fg with in my top three preferences.

Twould be nice to not a ff seat here after the election and I bet that they woudl have been pushing for more then 3 seats out here or for the constituancy to be split when the censes numbers are finally confirmed.

Money Shot

The Blanchardstwon area is a much neglected area in terms of public transport, schools and so many other amenities. It is the fastest growing town in Ireland, and has the largest percentage of 'young' people. Crime in the area is high too. Add to this that it also has a very large foreign population. If you put all these things together, Blanchardstown is an area that requires a lot of honest effort if it is to grow properly.

Brian Lenihan has done nothing, and I don't know who Gerry Lynam is, but reports haven't been good. Joan Burton does little too as far as I can see and Joe Higgins tries his best, but ultimately achieves nothing. Leo Vardakar does absolutely nothing either, but makes sure to send regular 'Updates' of what has been decided in the area, and pictures of him in various 'man on the street' locations. I think this will give a lot of people a false sense of what he has achieved, and as such clinch a lot of votes. It is a joke too if he entertained the idea of being a part time TD. Please correct me if anyone knows of anything specific in the area that he is actually responsible for !

Who is the man to give Blanchardstown the voice it deserves and needs ?
It's a tough constituency with any three from four. I'm writing off Felix Sinn Feiner bloke because I'm not even sure he exists, same with the Green candidate, what ever his name is. So, we have

Vardakar (FG)
Lenihan (FF) with transfers from no hoper Gerry lynan (FF)
Joan Burton (Labour)
Joe Higgins (socialist)

P.S they have some cheek arriving at your door step now without so much as a whisper or leaflet over the last four years....

cavedave

Good points Money Shot.

Let us say the most important local issues are crime and transport and childrens facilities. If we are just being pragmatic (rather then voting based on a viewpoint) about these issues the question becomes
1. Who cares about these issues
2. Who is likely to be elected
3. If elected who is likely to be in Government. If the person is in a minor party they will have more weight than their due.

1. Greens talk about transport a lot. Joe higgins talks about facilities for the children. Vardakar seems involved with planning and such so chalk him down for children too. Joan Burton has answered a query I had about a public park so she seems at least mildly involved. I do not know enough about Lenihen to comment

2. Who are the three to get elected out of

Vardakar (FG)
Lenihan (FF)
Joan Burton (Labour)
Joe Higgins (socialist)

3. Hard to see a government without labour in it. Also the possibility of Joe higgins being taken in exists. Bertie has said he want him to join his party and a promise of a few bus routes, parks a school should be enough for him to know he is serving the people of D15. Lenihen or Vardakar one will not be in government even if elected.

From this then if you want to vote for someone who will be in government who will be a minor party sounds like Burton then Higgins is the way to go.

bloodninja

This constituency needs a TD with integrity and intelligence such as that of Varadkar. Lenihan doesn't seem to me as a pure person. This is coming from someone who wil vote FF in my own area

Money Shot

cavedave wrote:

From this then if you want to vote for someone who will be in government who will be a minor party sounds like Burton then Higgins is the way to go.

Well thought out - I was kind of thinking along that route myself, but still doing research before I commit mentally to anyone. That still leaves the all important third preference. Vardakar or Lenihan ? Toughie.

While I don't particularly like Vardakar, I do want change and fresh ideas badly, so he looks like the only option. Greens are an option sure, but I seriously have never heard of the candidate in any shape or form - I don't even think he's too bothered whether he gets in or not.

All in all, there will be one reasonably confident politician crying in a few weeks, and it will be interesting to see who it is. My money is on Mr. Lenihan - and he only has himself to blame....

Nevyn

There is a PD canidate running as well hard to tell what she really looks like as her posters are very photoshopped.

I have yet to see any canidate anywhere near my estate and there were one calling door to door last time around and as i have kids this not like I am not here in the evenings.

cavedave

The calculation needs to take into account who your vote is likely to help. Helping a clear loser or a clear winner is not going to be much use.
Intersting analysis of the area here
http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?t=6141
he gives it to
Vardakar (FG)
Lenihan (FF)
Joe Higgins (socialist)

Zaph

If that analysis pans out it would be a right kick in the teeth to Labour if they lost Joan Burton's seat, as I reckon she'd be one they'd be lining up for a ministerial job if they got in. Can't stand the woman with her annoing whiny voice myself, which leaves me with a bit of a dilemma - do I vote for her anyway (wouldn't be no. 1 regardless) because I'd like to see Labour in, or do I not vote for her because I hate her so much?

Nevyn

Well Joan as a county cllr vote in favour of the bin charges for Fingal,
but it was Gerry Lynam's swing vote that passed the bill.

Zaph

I'm only in D15 for a couple of years, but the bin charges there are grand compared to what my parents pay Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown CC. Obviously I'd rather there were none, but that's a different argument.

BostonB

Money Shot wrote:

T....Brian Lenihan has done nothing, and I don't know who Gerry Lynam is, but reports haven't been good. Joan Burton does little too as far as I can see and Joe Higgins tries his best, but ultimately achieves nothing. Leo Vardakar does absolutely nothing either, but makes sure to send regular 'Updates' of what has been decided in the area, and pictures of him in various 'man on the street' locations. I think this will give a lot of people a false sense of what he has achieved, and as such clinch a lot of votes. It is a joke too if he entertained the idea of being a part time TD. Please correct me if anyone knows of anything specific in the area that he is actually responsible for !....

I couldn't agree more. what do these people do other than self publicize. I'm tired of Vardakar spam everywhere. Its horrific waste of money all the posters etc.

Money Shot

Thaedydal wrote:

There is a PD canidate running as well -hard to tell what she really looks like as her posters are very photoshopped.

Seen the posters on my way home last night. Cllr Mags Murray is the PD runner in Blanchardstown. I think we can safely rule her out as she is even more scarlet pimpernel than Felix Gallagher (SF) and DAve O'Gorman (green)

I hope Cave Dave's predictions above do not come to fruition. Brian Lenihan has had his chance and done absolutely nothing for Dublin 15. Why would people reward mediocrity and give him yet another chance. He's had his chance, and it's to give somebody else a shout. Even FF'ers above don't seem very complimentary to him.

The way I see things going is
1. Joe Higgins (reward for at least trying/taking the average ind. wage etc)
2. Leo Vadarkar (reward for his relentless publicity campaign)
3. Joan Burton (reward for not being FF and being in the right place at the right time)

So, it looks like Blanchardstown major transport, crime and lack of schools etc issues will go unresolved for another half a decade.

ciaran76

The thing is we all know that FF will walk straight back in in Dublin West.
Maybe the slight change in the area boundry might change things a little since last time but we have had a Minister from the Dublin 15 area in goverment for the last few years and things haven't got any better for most Dublin West commuters.

I still will vote but still haven't made my mind up. I voted Joe Higgins last time as he has helped a few friends and family members with certain issues and I went with him last time.

This time I am wondering does having Joe there actually help D.15 or hinder it but maybe thats what the other parties are trying to protray to us I am not sure.

Money Shot

ciaran76 wrote:

I still will vote but still haven't made my mind up. I voted Joe Higgins last time as he has helped a few friends and family members with certain issues and I went with him last time.

This time I am wondering does having Joe there actually help D.15 or hinder it but maybe thats what the other parties are trying to protray to us I am not sure.

I personally think it will help having Joe Higgins in. If you look at Dublin central - Tony Gregory has done more for his constituency than any other politician I know. Sadly, Ministers seem to have bigger fish to fry than helping the people who put them and concentrate on careering. If Labour get in, Burton is a cert for a misiterial portfolio. Joe Higgins might be able to strike a deal for dublin 15 similar to the 'Gregory deal' with Haughey. He will have a great opportunity to do some good for Blanchardstown - none of the others will be in that position.

Blanchardstown needs a politician like Tony Gregory.

ciaran76

Yeah I also looked at it from that point of view and I would love it something happened but as long as Lenihan is there I fear the worst.

cavedave

I hope Cave Dave's predictions above do not come to fruition.

They were not my predictions but someone elses. The more I think about them the less they add up though.
Dublin west has had a huge increase in population in the last few years. These new people are likely to be young, working people with young families. Are such people more likely to vote for an FG candidate then a Labour one?
You would think FF and FG would divide Castlenock between each other with Labour/Socialists dividing Tyrrelstown, Ongar and other new estates. Other half established areas, like Blanch,being split.

Nevyn

There definataly is a lack of community and tbh awareness in the area.
Maybe that idea for a d15 forum for here would be a good thing.

Zaph

Thaedydal wrote:

There definataly is a lack of community and tbh awareness in the area.
Maybe that idea for a d15 forum for here would be a good thing.

Should we all go to the pub to discuss it first?

joolsveer

Does anyone here listen to Phoenix FM? They are interviewing all eight Dublin West candidates tomorrow and broadcasting the interviews every evening next week. Each interview will last around 30 minutes. The following week there will be a programme where all the candidates will debate in front of an audience of locals.

Nevyn

zaph wrote:

Should we all go to the pub to discuss it first?

which one ?
serisouly some many small towns have a decent slection of pubs but yet D15 doesn't.