WIcklow Surprise?

Wicklow Boy

Who do you think will be elected in Wicklow. Will Dick Roche be elected because of his ministerial performance or will the water problem in Galway affect him. Where will Mildred Fox's 6000 votes go?? WHo will top the [poll?
My guess is Billy Timmons will this time. Any thoughts?

ballooba

Dick Roche will be re-elected despite himself. Timmons is safe. I hate to fuel Marcais' propoganda machine but I think Cawley may be a surprise there.

Edit: Actually, is this a new pseudonym Marcais. You're really refining that subtle approach.

Seth Brundle

Id be surprised if the water problem would significantly affect his popularity in Wicklow.
If anything the fact that he is a member of FF will affect him more. Also (hopefully) people will realise that he is a Wicklow version of Martin Cullen and for that reason won't vote for him!

ballooba

I would give my two front teeth to see Roche and a few others lose their seats. I don't see it happening though.

It wont happen but FF might end up with only 1 seat down here.
Only 1 of the sitting candidates is running and theres an entire FF camp annoyed resulting in a disaffected candidate Pat Doran running as an independent.

I'd imagine the 2 extra seats will go to De bourka of the greens and Nicky Kelly of labour.
The former because of the swing to Green and the rise in the population of the county and the latter because he's popular and only lost out to Mildred by 19 votes last time.
Kelly actually had a higher first preference total than Mildred but lost out on the transfers.
This time round he should get more transfers and more first preferences.

The only 2 flys in the ointment for him were the hard personal time he's had in the last 2 years and the fact that FF are running a mildly popular candidate in his home town.Though there will be a local swapping of 1's and 2's between them I'd say so that mightnt be such an issue.

As for Eveyln Cawley,I've been living in Wicklow all my life,I read my wicklow people every week and I've never heard of her untill the thread on here-so I'd highly discount her to be honest.

I agree this constituency will be intriguing!

Wicklow Boy

Maybe I am wrong but last time FF got 1.9 Quota's wth 2 candidates and Fox got 0.7 of a quota, a large % of which is disaffected FF. Also Joe Behan will take a lot of votes from the well heeled supporters of Liz Mac in Bray (who used to vote for Gemma hussey) and much of the Fox vote could go to Behan. Could be a dog fight but i think Timmons, Behan, LMcManus Roche and De burca in that order. Kelly may be close but i think last time was his best shot and people will keep a very very VERY close eye on the Kelly Tally this time.

Wicklow Boy

Wicklow Boy wrote:

Kelly may be close but i think last time was his best shot and people will keep a very very VERY close eye on the Kelly Tally this time.

I dont agree.
Last time he came close when everybody was voting FF...(they came one and two in Wicklow in 02)
Do you seriously think everybody will be voting FF this time round?

Our man in Havana

Is Mildred not running this time? Strange?

redspider

Mildred isnt running.

Dick Roche will get in, as someone said, despite himself. This is more indicative of the quality of the voters than the candidate. Irish voters vote in strange characters at times, the Lowry's, the Cooper-Flynn's, the Healy-Rae's, etc. And even Berties financial shenanigans are likely to see his voting increase if anything. We get what we vote for.

Wicklow (5 seats):

Dick Roche (FF) 1 - 50
Liz McManus (Lab.) 1 - 20
Deirdre De Burca (GP) 1 - 5
Billy Timmins (FG) 1 - 5
Nicky Kelly (Lab.) 8 - 11
Joe Behan (FF) 4 - 5
Andrew Doyle (FG) 6 - 4
Pat Doran (Ind.) 7 - 4
Evelyn Cawley (Ind.) 2 - 1

So the 5th seat is between Nicky Kelly (any cornflakes?), Joe Behan (FF) and Doyle (FG), so coud be a seat lost by FF.


Redspider

Our man in Havana

I would be very surprised if Nicky Kelly doesn't steal a seat from FF.

luapenak

Tristrame wrote:

As for Eveyln Cawley,I've been living in Wicklow all my life,I read my wicklow people every week and I've never heard of her untill the thread on here-so I'd highly discount her to be honest.

I don't know if what part of Wicklow your from but if you have been reading the north wicklow times over the last few years she has been hard to miss. She was on the greystones town commision for years and is one of those people who are always involved in everything in the community. It will be interesting to see how she gets on because the poulation of charlesland, greystone, kilcoole and delgany isnt large enough to elect her alone.

Marcais

Bond-007 wrote:

I would be very surprised if Nicky Kelly doesn't steal a seat from FF.

Well the word around Arklow is that Kelly has lost a whole lot of credibility and especially after his arrogance aroung his being caught for drink driving and blowing the allowable limit out of the water. If he struggles in Arklow, he hasn't a chance elsewhere. First time voters for example will not go near him.

The 5th seat is wide open. You would hope that Sunday Mail revelations that Bertie is a blatant liar would hurt Fianna Fail (to those of you who didn't know that already)

C0ck Roche, Liz McManus, De Burca and Timmins are more or less shoe-ins. I would discount Nicky Kelly and Joe behan for the 5th seat, so It's between Doyle, Doran and Cawley and predict:

Roche, McManus, De Burca, Timmins, Cawley.




ps. Bond, your avatar looks a whole lot like Nicky Kelly:) (yes, I do know who it is, before some clown tries to educate me)

Our man in Havana

Lol! :d

Marcais

Marcais wrote:

Well the word around Arklow is that Kelly has lost a whole lot of credibility and especially after his arrogance aroung his being caught for drink driving and blowing the allowable limit out of the water. If he struggles in Arklow, he hasn't a chance elsewhere. First time voters for example will not go near him.

I live down here and thats not the vibe I've heard...

Roche, McManus, De Burca, Timmins, Cawley.

Rofl-you wouldnt be a Cawley supporter by any chance...

luapenak wrote:

I don't know if what part of Wicklow your from but if you have been reading the north wicklow times over the last few years she has been hard to miss. She was on the greystones town commision for years and is one of those people who are always involved in everything in the community.

I'm from south Wicklow and I've never heard of her before a thread on here.

Wicklow Boy

The vast bulk of Nicky Kelly's votes come from a part of Arklow and there is no doubt that he has peaked in that area as he had up to 85% in parts so the only way is down or level.
The word on the ground is that Nicky has lost a little credibility over the accident. Maybe one way to alleviate it would be if he was to come out and support Bertie Aherne's committment in the Fianna Fail mainifesto that there should be mandatory blood testing for alcohol of all people involved in car accidents and that this might also be supported by his caring constituency colleague Liz McManus who was so wonderfully supportive of her beloved Labour colleague in hospital on the night of his accident.

In fact I think that it would be great if the Minister for the Environment Dick Roche was to say this loud and clear also as one of the greatest crimes in this country is that of people driving their cars with above the legal limit of alcohol and it being silently condoned by people in high places.

Cawley has NO chance of getting within an asses roar of the 10,000 votes required for a quota. I would be amazed if she got 3000 (i guess 2200) as Deirdre De Burca is on her patch and will Pick up a lot of the Greystones marina votes that is the main plank of Cawley's campaign

Wicklow Boy

It appears that the Jacob home team are working with Pat Fitzgerald FF in Arklow. Will this be enough to hold a seat in the south of the county or will all the seats be in the north east. Last time Nicky Kelly got sizeable transfers from the greens but they will not be around this time as Deirdre De Burca is expected to make it easily.

Although I wasn't going to vote for her,she'd probably be better off in the Dáil as she objects to everything I'd consider as progress on the council.

Hmmm Fitzgerald,I dunno,Doran is going to take a lot of Jacobs vote and he's canvassing strong in Arklow aswell.
When he's eliminated,his votes might go to behan instead of fitzgerald...given the dislike of fitz in that camp when Doran didn't get the FF nomination.
I'm expecting a fair swap of ones and two's between the Arklow candidates aswell which will have an impact.

Kelly only got about 20% of Deburca's transfers in 2002 by the way when she was eliminated-so I don't think you can draw any conclusions that he would be at a loss from that.It might be more than counter balanced with the transfer arrangement from the anti government parties.
I'd say deburca might get a seat alright but she will be doubling or almost trebling her 1st preference vote if she does which would be some achievement.

Roll on the 25th so we hear the first tallies!

luapenak

have people encountered people out canvassing at all yet. It seems odd that i have had nobody call up to the door(greystones area). Maybe there just not detremined enough. maybe ill give my vote to the first one who knocks on the door instead of trying to ring a broken door bell.

Wicklow Boy

Well i was driving through Greystones on Sat afternoon and I saw Joe Behan and a large team working through the area. Maybe the others have not come out yet

pcr1000

Its a real hard one this time for the inhabitants of Arklow. The choice is a rock or a hard place, you might say. Nicky did'nt do himself any favours with his driving & Fitz who would'nt talk to a working class man when he worked in IFI would now kiss your baby's arse for a vote. Sour grapes with Doran, regardless of whether deserved or not. Cawley unknown in south Wicklow, Arklow anyway. De Burca would do well if it went on looks, but Liz has the charm & the looks despite her age. The tiochaig ar la gang may get a bit of a protest vote but Christ Almighty who would seriously put them in charge of the country? The formula for the future I'm afraid is to ditch electing county footballers & publicans and try and get a few professional TD's. We have had the gombeen men for long enough. To tell the truth I'm not impressed with any of the Wicklow offering other than Liz, whilst I'm not a supporter. The whole thing has a Grand Natonal feel about it, the fallers keep running. And does the best horse always win........... I doubt it. I won't even begin to talk of Bertie or Cockroach !!!!!!!

I've had Doran,Fitz and Hillbilly here with entourages.

Wicklow Boy

Well Doran is going no where , might get 1200 votes or maybe only 600. Fitz may do better but still has got no charisma and will trail Behan and Roche after first count. He is hoing that Kelly bombs out and Arklow might elect him but i doubt if that will happen

Múinteoir

Anyone seen Pat Fitzgerald's youtube video? Painfully bad!

M&#250

M&#250 wrote: »

Anyone seen Pat Fitzgerald's youtube video? Painfully bad!

lol
Thats dreadfull.
They probably play it in Gitmo.

Macy

I would suspect that much of the rural North Wicklow Mildred Fox vote will go to Andrew Doyle rather than yet another Bray candidate in Behan. He's well respected across the political divide in the area.

As for Fox not running again, combination of the writing on the wall the last time and having a young family. I wouldn't be too surprised to see Christopher run in a few years, if he was interested, as he's proving to be a decent councillor.

I think that Kelly probably peaked at the last election, but I wouldn't be that clued in to how the south of the county will vote. And if there is a Green tide he could really be in with a struggle with De Burca - Roche's attacks on O'Brolchain and their similarity to his attacks over the years on De Burca have actually raised her stock imo.

McManus and Timmons shoe in's anyway.

As for FF, it's hard to know really. I've yet to find anyone that likes or even respects Roche, but they've stopped taking bets on him and he's confident of getting well in excess of the quota, which Behan will need. However, just going from what I see around the place, there doesn't seem to be much appetite for the fight from several of the FF groupings - seems the infighting might've taken it's toll...

jb91

ballooba wrote:

I would give my two front teeth to see Roche and a few others lose their seats. I don't see it happening though.

Nah, they love him in Greystones :rolleyes:

luapenak

where in greystones is that?

mikedragon32

luapenak wrote:

where in greystones is that?

Certainly not in Charlesland.

Macy

Did he not have to move out of Greystones to Bray after his disastrous first stint as a TD, where he alienated his local support?

williamb

luapenak wrote:

where in greystones is that?

I think it's gone now, but it was on the Bray/Greystones road, just before Windgates as you come from Bray.

jb91

williamb wrote:

I think it's gone now, but it was on the Bray/Greystones road, just before Windgates as you come from Bray.

Yeah, it's gone now though