It's all about the transfers!!

Dandesav

As long as FG and Labour supporters keep to the transfer pact and FF don't have a great day (which probably won't happen) is there anything stopping them?

In 1969 FG got 33.3% of the vote, winning them 50 seats and Labour got 16.6% of the vote winning them 18 seats. This is 49.9% of the vote and 68 seats. Fianna Fáil won 44.6% of the vote and got 74 seats, forming the government.

In 1973 the two parties had a pre-election transfer pact- the only time, apart from this year, that this has happened in Ireland (sorry if I'm wrong about that).
FG got 35.1% of the vote winning 54 seats while Labour got 13.7% of the vote, winning 19 seats. This is 48.8% of the vote to win 73 seats. By contrast, Fianna Fáil got 46.2% of the vote but only won 68 seats.

The point is that Fianna Fáil's vote went up and collectively the FG-Labour vote went down, yet transfers gave them a seat bonus.

So, with FG-Labour (38%) one point ahead of FF (37%) in the RedC poll, what's stopping them (apart from people not transferring properly)?

E92

Well you see this is the thing. The RedC poll, even though support for the alternative is down 1%, wouls still leave Fine Gael and Labour with a reasonable chance of getting in on their own. If you add the Greens there should definately be a change of Government. People might say that FF and SF on this poll would have 45% combined or FF and GP would have 45% combined, and that FG+Lab+GP would be on 46%. You dont need 50% of the vote to get in to power. Around 40% with strong transfers will get you an overall majority. In a 4 seater, 40% of the vote will get you 2 seats, you'd imagine that 50% would.Same goes for a 5 seater, just over 30% is enough for 2 out of 5 seats, provided the candidates transfer well to one another and of course in our case that FG transfer well to Labour and vice versa.

Bateman

It is indeed all about the transfers, but what percentage of the electorate understand tansfers?

Voipjunkie

Bateman wrote:

It is indeed all about the transfers, but what percentage of the electorate understand tansfers?

The problem for FG is that they have an awful lot of ground to make up just to get back to where they were before 2002
IMO FG/Lab have very little if any chance of making it on there own even with transfers just cannot see where that amount of seats are going to come from they need nearly 30 seat gain FF would have to have a disaster on a par with FGs 2002 performance as SF and the greens are also expected to pick up seats.

Even with the greens I think FG and Lab will be a couple short probably around 81 SF on 7 or 8 PDs on 2 or 3 and FF back in the early 60s SP on 2 and then the independents.
FG lab and the greens will form a minority government as SF will abstain on the vote for Taoiseach and we will have another election in the next 2 years.

spanner

I think the transfer situation is what is going to let down SF they poll well for the first preference votes but 2nd and 3rd goes badly because you are generally a Lover or Hater of SF I dont see this election been any different, when it goes to the wire they will not have the preferences to carry them over the line

Seth Brundle

There is still two and a half weeks to go - thats a long time in politics.
For all we know, Berties appearances with Ian paisley and also his trip to London will convert people's views.

Dandesav

kbannon wrote:

There is still two and a half weeks to go - thats a long time in politics.
For all we know, Berties appearances with Ian paisley and also his trip to London will convert people's views.

That's true, but it's not happening in a vacuum- we still have Fine Gael's manifesto to come and the fact that people's opinions do seem to be changing about Enda Kenny. Also, the more FG and Labour have joint press conferences the more the transfer idea will get into people's heads.

FG have asked voters to transfer to the Greens after Labour and I suppose there's the presumption that Green and Labour voters would transfer to eachother anyway. It's also unlikely that many Green voters would transfer to FF.

So if the three parties transfer tightly to eachother, and presuming they collectively get over 40% of the vote, they should get in?

DMC

Its nearly always the case that more No. 2's go from Labour to FG than FG to Labour.

Its the pure urban/rural young/old divide.

I have spoken to some traditional (long time) FG supporters and voters, who feel they cannot vote for Labour. The reason they give, surprisingly, is Labour's stance on abortion. Abortion wouldnt be an issue to stop an FG/Labour govt, but it would only taken another Supreme Court case to set that can of worms flying across the cabinet table. These people might be people of stong Christian faith and rural, where the Labour vote is weaker.

E92

I think that Sinn Fein will get at least 8 seats unfortunately. The 5 they have at the moment, plus Mary Lou in Dublin Central, quite possibly 2 in Donegal, though Dinny Mc Ginley in Donegal North West and Joe Mc Hugh in Donegal South East(the Fine Gael candidates) should not be ruled out by any means. Of the two, I think we have a better chance in South East, Doherty in North West is strong and is well known, though that said Mc Ginley has the advantage of being a sitting TD. I still see a good chance for both of them, though I accept that we will have a fight there, and it will be either us or them that will get those seats. Then theres Dessie Ellis in a Dublin constituency, who narrowly lost out the last time.

The thing about transfers is so important.

Who topped the poll in Kerry North the last time? Sinn Feins Martin Ferris.

Who was first to get a quota? Wrong,it was not Ferris, rather Fianna Fáils Tom Mc Ellistrim. In other words Mc Ellistrim got the first seat there, even though he had less first preference votes.

Actually this time Labour may well gain a seat in Kerry North. Terry O'Brien is supposed to be performing well there. Hopefully he will regain what was always a seat for Labour(at Ferris's expense, though I know how unrealistic the chances of that happening are).

FG and Labour are still ahead of Feel and Fail,on the latest RedC poll. We're(collectively) on 38%. With the Greens that adds up to 46%. Anything over about 40-42%, with good transfers will bring about the alternative, but as I said transfers are the cruical thing. If we dont transfer to each other then an alternative is not a realistic proposition.

Dandesav

E92 wrote:

FG and Labour are still ahead of Feel and Fail,on the latest RedC poll. We're(collectively) on 38%. With the Greens that adds up to 46%. Anything over about 40-42%, with good transfers will bring about the alternative, but as I said transfers are the cruical thing. If we dont transfer to each other then an alternative is not a realistic proposition.

You say 'we'- are you a member of Fine Gael? I'm only asking because you might know if there are plans to highlight to voters how important transferring is for FG -Labour to have a chance?
I don't mean to sound arrogant but do you think enough people understand how important they are?

athtrasna

E92 wrote:

though Dinny Mc Ginley in Donegal North West and Joe Mc Hugh in Donegal South East(the Fine Gael candidates) should not be ruled out by any means. Of the two, I think we have a better chance in South East, Doherty in North West is strong and is well known, though that said Mc Ginley has the advantage of being a sitting TD. I still see a good chance for both of them, though I accept that we will have a fight there, and it will be either us or them that will get those seats.

Sorry to be pedantic but the constituencies are Donegal North East (Joe McHugh) and Donegal South West (Dinny McGinley). Both will be close contests.

As for transfers, they are very important but often depend on geography over party. In a 2 county constituency, the votes are more likely to transfer within the county than even within the same party!

Dirk Gently

E92 wrote:

Then theres Dessie Ellis in a Dublin constituency, who narrowly lost out the last time.
.

dub north west, and I fear my local citizens will return him this time around so you can add him to the list. Ironically if he doesn't get in it will because of transferes between FF and FG so maybe FG should propose that FG supporters transfere to pat carey (FF) in an attempt to keep ellis out. :eek:

athtrasna

clown bag wrote:

dub north west, and I fear my local citizens will return him this time around so you can add him to the list. Ironically if he doesn't get in it will because of transferes between FF and FG so maybe FG should propose that FG supporters transfere to pat carey (FF) in an attempt to keep ellis out. :eek:

This has happened in the past. One of my college lecturers told us he actively canvassed for a no 2 for the opposition candidate in that constituency to keep SF out.

Dirk Gently

yup, it's a constituency where your either left, far left or FF so if your FG or PD you might as well vote FF / LAB to keep SF out. Most FG wont transfere to anyone but labour / PD and most labour will transfere to Sinn Fein / WP / FF. With dermot ahern definetly getting returned, if you don't want SF you can only hope shorthall and carey get in to keep ellis out.

athtrasna

clown bag wrote:

With dermot ahern definetly getting returned

eh...unless Dermot has relocated from Louth I think you mean Noel, brother of the soon-to-be former Taoiseach

Dirk Gently

athtrasna wrote:

eh...unless Dermot has relocated from Louth I think you mean Noel, brother of the soon-to-be former Taoiseach

woops

indeed I meant Noel.

athtrasna

Sorry, I'm feeling wide awake and very precise tonight!