Prediction Time | Who's gonna win?

PH01

Using Paddy Power's Constituency breakdown, I'm predicting that we're gonna have a hung Dail once all the results are in (with the Shinners being the king makers).

Here's my breakdown as per constituency breakdown

What do you reckon?

is_that_so

The danger with all of these predictions is the very large numbers of undecideds. We also have the question of turnout. Higher turnout is considered less likely to favour Fianna Fail. As for SF, well there are no guarantees there either. The numbers are their stated targets. It depends on how strong the desire is to change. Too close to call or put money on it. My feeling is that it is currently nudging towards the alternative, though they may end up as a minority government. But then again in a week's time it could be swinging Fianna Fail's way.

stepbar

Dont be suprised if FG get two seats in South Leitrim / Roscommon. The farmers of Roscommon dont have much time for John Ellis. Nor dont be suprised if SF push FG / FF hard for the last seat.

Time Magazine

I'm certain the figures will be better than that for FG. For example, polling 50% of first preferences in Mayo but only getting 2 seats from 5? No FG seat in Donegal at all? 5,000 first preferences in Dublin South East last time around, dis-affection with McDowell causing a certain bump this around party-wise and a feckin' huge electoral machine, but no seat?

Are you really suggesting Labour will lose a seat, accounting for a strong transfer pact for FG?

I'm quite certain that Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party will form the next government.

InFront

I think the Dublin South predicition is spot on anyway, but an overall hung Dail is just way too specific to call.

Although I'm sure that bookmakers probably don't tend to lose money, not all of those are going to be accurate. I'm not convinced there will be a net loss of just four independents (even though the ones that remain could end up with a certain amount of political leverage). A lot could depend on who those independents are.

jhegarty

InFront wrote:

but an overall hung Dail is just way too specific to call.

Would keep then on their toes though

PH01

Ibid wrote:

I'm certain the figures will be better than that for FG. For example, polling 50% of first preferences in Mayo but only getting 2 seats from 5?

I don't see FG getting 3 seats in Mayo. It's personality driven there not party. Ring to top the poll here. Kenny might just come in second.
Though saying that, FG might very well benefit from the Flynn factor which may distort the FF vote.

Ibid wrote:

Are you really suggesting Labour will lose a seat, accounting for a strong transfer pact for FG?

It's not the transfers from FG Labour should be worried about but the losing of ground to SF.

Ibid wrote:

I'm quite certain that Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party will form the next government.

I'm not sure certain. They may very well have the largest grouping, with a couple of independants, but I feel they'll fall 3 to 6 seats short of an overall majority.

tHE vAGGABOND

Good for Greens and awful for PD's - happy days

redspider

> No FG seat in Donegal at all?

Yes, this is possible. There was only one out of 2x3 seaters and that is under threat from SF. See the thread about it in this forum.

Also, in that thread a similar analysis is pointed to of the Paddypower odds, and similar tallies result.

I too think it will be a 'hung' Dail as FG+Lab+GP are about 77 which is 6 short and FF+PD likewise. The question will be given the tallies above, if they come about and there are no certainties, only probabilities, is whether FF+Lab come together for a short while to 'run the country'. FG+Lab+GP could run it as a minority Government with some independent support and some abstentions perhaps, but we'll only know that for certain when the numbers actually appear. It will be close and the marginal seats, and perhaps even the handful and 10's of votes here or there will determine it.

I could see another election taking place in the autumn if it is so tight. For that one, I would expect Bertie to resign and Cowen to lead FF, and there may be a new FG leader too!

Redspider

tHE vAGGABOND

FG+Labour+Green+ Most of the Indy's

or..

FG+Labour+Green+SF
[but that wont happen for reasons I dont really understand tbh, see my other thread!]

It will be fun to watch the messing around between them all of nothing else, the horse trading will be fierce

Victor Meldrew

tHE vAGGABOND wrote:

FG+Labour+Green+ Most of the Indy's

or..

FG+Labour+Green+SF
[but that wont happen for reasons I dont really understand tbh, see my other thread!]

It will be fun to watch the messing around between them all of nothing else, the horse trading will be fierce

FF + Labour is the most likely. regrettable, and it'll take a week or two to thrash out, but that's what I've my money on..

daveirl

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Victor Meldrew

daveirl wrote:

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I'm sure it's mutual and the only point on which they agree:D

PH01

redspider wrote:

> ...FF+Lab come together for a short while to 'run the country'...

I forgot about this combination and yes, this would fit nicely as it would keep the wolves (no offence to SF intended) from the door.

Though Pat Rabbitte said he'd resign before that happens. Which means he'll resign when it does. Brendan Howlin to take over as Labour leader.

And Bertie may not need to resign as party leader as the alternative is a SF supported government.

HOWEVER...
FF may just decide to go into opposition and abstaining from voting if there is a danger it might bring down the Government - just like the Tallaght Strategy government of 1987 except that it'll be FF and not FG in opposition.

Victor Meldrew

HOWEVER...
FF may just decide to go into opposition and abstaining from voting if there is a danger it might bring down the Government - just like the Tallaght Strategy government of 1987 except that it'll be FF and not FG in opposition.[/QUOTE]


Don't think that would last long, I'd predict once they had their internal issues (bertie) out of the way they'd pull the plug. We are not a basket case like we were back then. (yet):eek:

PH01

Victor Meldrew wrote:

Don't think that would last long, I'd predict once they had their internal issues (bertie) out of the way they'd pull the plug. We are not a basket case like we were back then. (yet):eek:

Guess your right. It would be hard to see FF place themselves in opposition - it's not their style.

So I guess the only real alternative government is FF and LAB.