Cork north West

amc759

anyone have thaugths, about voting in cork North West, I usually vote FF, but wont this time, the options are FG. I like there honesty... and the labour canditate dont have a chance. I really want to make FF feel my protest vote.

Dandesav

If you say you will vote FG, then the best thing is to vote FG, Labour, Green in that order. They have a transfer pact, so vote down the ticket to maximise their chances of winning seats and make FF feel the protest!

Traditionally FG country, but the Moynihans did very well last time around to get 2 seats for FF. Gonna be a massive battle within FF, the addition of O'Keeffe means 3 sitting FF TDs going for 2 seats. Might split the vote, but O'Keeffe doing well around Ballincollig and Moynihans got almost 20,000 first preference between them last time, so think they might just about hang on to the 2.

DMC

Its the been called the most conservative constituency in the country, but also a place to watch if there is a swing at all. If FG regain 2 here, then FF might be in trouble nationally.

amc759

I voted for M. Mohnihan last time. any one, know anything abt FG, canditates, Would love to see 1 FG, 1. Lab.1FF . We need change.

amc759

amc759 wrote:

I voted for M. Mohnihan last time.

In fairness he's a good candidate. Caused a huge shock in 1997 when he took a safe FG seat when he was not even 30, and topped the poll after that, even though afaik he's stuck out in Kiskeam or some place around there. He was very active in Ogra. Always found him one of the most capable politicians around.

KerranJast

Considering the Government has done feck all to help attract work to the region you would expect the sitting FF TD's to get a kicking. However CNW is probably one of the few remaining Civil War constituencies in the country due to the older demographic. I can't see anyone other than FF/FG winning seats here for another 20 years. 1 FF and 1 FG are guaranteed (looking like Batt O'Keeffe and Michael Creed respectively). It's all to play for for the last seat. Depending on the order of elimination of candidates Gerard Murphy (FG) could beat Michael Moynihan (FF) for it.

Hasnt Ballincollig been added to this constituency which gives it more of an urban flavour than before.
Also Macroom is more or less a commuter town for Cork now.

I know some FG members down there that are pretty confident that it will be back to 1FF and 2 FG.

athtrasna

Deleted User wrote:

Caused a huge shock in 1997 when he took a safe FG seat .

Have to disagree there, Crowley's seat was looking vulnerable and it was suggested locally that he contested one election too many.

Personally I have no time for MM, he's had 10 years of being a Government TD and the North of the constituency is haemhorraging jobs rather than gaining.

Donal, as a constituent I never met the man, never heard from the man ergo never voted for the man!

Creed is looking good for a comeback, but he's still not half the politician his father was.

Labour sometimes run a candidate, should poll a couple of thousand votes and it's the distribution of these that will decide whether the constituency swings again.

Gerard Murphy was a new TD last time round and for an opposition TD, has done well for the constituency. He's been around for years and has put the work in at local level...I would like to see him get back in.

Batt O'Keeffe, should do well, not only does he have Ballincollig but he hails from the North of the const so will take some of MM's votes.

Greens...might get some votes around the new parts of the const, Ballincollig etc but this is a traditional FF/FG battle.

I would hope it turns out to be 2FG/1FF but indicators are one Ballincollig TD (ie O'Keeffe), one Macroom TD (Donal Moynihan/Michael Creed) and one Kanturk TD (Gerard Murphy/Michael Moynihan).

Without a doubt this is one of the most interesting constituencies this time out.

amc759

Thanks for all the info. I have decided to Vote for Murphy and Creed.

We need change;)

E92

Fine Gael always had 2 seats traditionally in Cork North West. Its time for that to return.

nesf

E92 wrote:

Fine Gael always had 2 seats traditionally in Cork North West. Its time for that to return.

Besides the party politics, do you honestly think it will happen? O'Keeffe is going to do very well and Micheal Moynihan is still very popular in his homeland from what I can gather (my family is from that area). Plus, with the introduction of Ballincollig the battleground has most definitely changed in the constituency. Creed does poll well but I'm unconvinced that he'll overtake Micheal Moynihan and a lot of Donal Moynihan's transfers (which is essentially what he needs to do).


Edit: Oh, and for comedy value the Greens are running a candidate out of Bandon of all places. I don't know what was going through their heads on that one tbh.

nesf

athtrasna wrote:

Have to disagree there, Crowley's seat was looking vulnerable and it was suggested locally that he contested one election too many.

That was the generally held opinion from my part of the constituency as well. A bridge too far and all that.

Gobán Saor

Like most of rural county Cork, a traditional Fine Gale (pronounced to rhyme with "wine":rolleyes: ) constituency since before even Fine Gale was formed. Personally I think its repressed guilt because Michael Collins was shot dead in the county:D

It'll return to form this time - 2FG, 1FF.

nesf

Gob&#225 wrote: »

Like most of rural county Cork, a traditional Fine Gale (pronounced to rhyme with "wine":rolleyes: ) constituency since before even Fine Gale was formed. Personally I think its repressed guilt because Michael Collins was shot dead in the county:D

It'll return to form this time - 2FG, 1FF.

With Ballincollig added it's a whole new constituency. It has definitely become more urbanised and that's going to shake things up a bit. Plus, there's been a lot of new blood entering the constituency in the past ten years, commuters from Cork etc and that's going to change things even more.

It'll be interesting to watch but I'm having trouble seeing FG picking up two seats with O'Keeffe in the picture.

E92

The fact that Feel and Fail are running 3 candidates and they are all fighting with each other allows me to make that prediction. Also, FG only narrowly lost out on that final seat last time. But yes you are absolutely right, Ballicollig now being in the constituency does make it a lot more interesting, so while it wouldnt surprise me if Feel and Fail got 2, I still think we have edge.

nesf

E92 wrote:

The fact that Feel and Fail are running 3 candidates and they are all fighting with each other allows me to make that prediction. Also, FG only narrowly lost out on that final seat last time. But yes you are absolutely right, Ballicollig now being in the constituency does make it a lot more interesting, so while it wouldnt surprise me if Feel and Fail got 2, I still think we have edge.

The in-fighting is definitely going to be a factor, there just isn't a "junior enough" candidate for it to be a simple 2 horse race from FF. If it was a simple 1, 2, 3 strategy instead of the present brawl then it'd be much harder to see FF not getting 2.

The thing is that Murphy is safe in his seat (imho) and Creed will either have a huge amount of ground to catch up on or hope for a big mess up between the two Moynihans. The thing is that Micheal does have the edge over Donal imho and will probably survive getting cut and earning the transfers.

The urbanisation of the constituency is going to prove interesting though and the area as a whole has changed massively in the past 10 years.

Edit: The consensus I've heard from my old area (i.e. Duhallow) is that Donal Moynihan is expected to lose his seat and people are planning to vote accordingly which is interesting though may prove to be only talk (this is very much non-party sources btw).

amc759

I cant see MIcahel Moy losing his seat, has a hudge base. I dont think Murphy is safe, FG, I think Creed has a bigger base. The talk is, that Murphy is a great worker, in his area, but that Creed is polling better. Check out the odds at Paddy Power.ie .. Creed is 1/8.

I like to see 2 FG and 1 FF, its going to be great fun.

does any one know where they count the votes, and can the general public go. I think this could be very interesting. I have never been to a count.

athtrasna

They used to count in Macroom but I think last time was in Neptune Stadium where they did all the Cork ones. I'm not 100% certain though

amc759

athtrasna wrote:

They used to count in Macroom but I think last time was in Neptune Stadium where they did all the Cork ones. I'm not 100% certain though

I just had FG canvassing at the door, so I have decided to vote for Creed and Murphy. The count is going on in Macroom, and the general public can go in.

I think it will be better than any TV......

WE NEED CHANGE

Dandesav

amc759 wrote:

The count is going on in Macroom, and the general public can go in.

Are you sure that just anyone can go in? I'd love to go to a count centre, but I always heard that it's just candidates and their workers and stuff?

nesf

amc759 wrote:

I cant see MIcahel Moy losing his seat, has a hudge base. I dont think Murphy is safe, FG, I think Creed has a bigger base. The talk is, that Murphy is a great worker, in his area, but that Creed is polling better. Check out the odds at Paddy Power.ie .. Creed is 1/8.

I like to see 2 FG and 1 FF, its going to be great fun.

does any one know where they count the votes, and can the general public go. I think this could be very interesting. I have never been to a count.

I'm going to have to revise my opinion on Murphy, had a very long chat with my Dad about this and he was saying that Creed is well ahead on opinion. He's also putting Donal ahead of Micheal Moynihan. Batt O'Keeffe has people working hard for him in Duhallow apparently which could undermine Micheal Moynihan a lot.

All very interesting.

amc759

I am realy getting in to this.

I have decided to give Murphy No 1 and Creed no 2. as Creed seems to have plenty, and may this way FG will get 2 seats, and FF will feel it. My parent are tradtionaly FF, and very disappointed with FF and will not vote for them this time.

Yes you go to county centre, not early in the day, but in the afternoon.....

amc759

Did anyone check out Cork Nrth West in www.ratemytd.ie
O'Keeffe is no included!!! All very strange!

fobs

I Still think that M Moynihan is a good candidate as have found him to be very helpful in dealing with queries we have had over the past few years. Have not heard anything from the FG camp since the last election and have not been canvassed at all by FG in my area which would be considered a FG town. Don't think voting for change for change sake is the way to vote but to each their own!

nesf

amc759 wrote:

Did anyone check out Cork Nrth West in www.ratemytd.ie
O'Keeffe is no included!!! All very strange!

Wouldn't he be in Cork South Central since he's a sitting TD for there for the last term?

amc759

He ran in another area the last time, and now is running in Cork N.west. Seemingly the FF people are not very happy about him coming in, but he is expected to get a big vote in Ballincollig.

All very interesting

KerranJast

I was coming back from Limerick on Thursday and there's Batt O'Keeffe posters all the way from the county bounds in Charleville to Kanturk. Michael Moynihan must be spitting fire

amc759

the talk on the ground is there was alot of tenison, when Bertie was in kanturk yes, between all 3 FF Canditates and there followers. this is better than TV. Bring it on.

athtrasna

All the more reason to let them self-destruct and vote for the other parties

Scofflaw

amc759 wrote:

Did anyone check out Cork Nrth West in www.ratemytd.ie
O'Keeffe is no included!!! All very strange!

Yes, he's listed in Cork South-Central. The link is www.ratemytd.com, though.

cordially,
Scofflaw