Irish Times TNS/MRBI Poll 11/05/07

Jonny Arson

FF 36% (+2)
FG 28% (-3)
Lab 13% (+3)
Green 5% (-1)
SF 10% (=)
PD 2% (-1)
Others 6% (=)


FF/PD 38%
FG/LAB 41%


I think this is probably the most accurate state of reflection after that odd poll last week.

Not surprised FF have gone up solely due to the ''ah poor Bertie'' factor
FG may be down 3 but 28% is probably where they really are so that should be a satisfactory poll for them.
Labour will be delighted
Great poll for SF but after this weeks events maybe a slight disappointed of no increase in support
Disappointing poll for Greens
PDs are on for a massacre

FG/Lab with Greens still favourites but it still will be very close. On this poll I guess it will be around: FF 63-68, FG 49-54, Lab 21-24, SF 8-10, Greens 7-9, PDs 2-4, Others 5-8.

delta_bravo

The whole Norn Iron progress would have given FF a significant boost also

Jonny Arson

delta_bravo wrote:

The whole Norn Iron progress would have given FF a significant boost also

Yeah no question that it was no doubt a positive piece of news for FF but I feel after Bertiegate part 1, the rally around Bertie call is more responsible. I actually thought they could go by 4 or 5 points!

Actually on that point, SF staying = would actually be considered slightly disappointing considering the positive events of this week. Maybe the last TNS/MRBI poll also overrepresented thier share?

mike65

Why do peeps keep making predictions about PDs on the basis of a national poll when they are not a 'national' party?

Mike.

InFront

More good news for the coalition; also good to see Mr Brennan so firm about not relying on SF support after the election (Prime Time tonight), in which case the FG coalition are in a very clear position to get into Government to put things right.

Jonny Arson

mike65 wrote:

Why do peeps keep making predictions about PDs on the basis of a national poll when they are not a 'national' party?

Mike.

You cannot spin the fact that 2% is dreadful figure 2 weeks before an election. That correlates to what I have heard from some canvassers on the ground that PDs are in the sh!t. Fiona O'Malley, Tim O'Malley and Sexton look gone. Parlon, Grealish, O'Donnell and Harney have almighty battles, call it 2 out of those 4 will be saved. McDowell is their safest seat and even he cant afford to get to cocky. No gains due. 1 safe-ish seat out of 8. 2% nationally is a reflection of the state of the party and 2% would be disasterous for the party's local constituency chances and there's no single party scaremongering for McDowell to use this time round.

Dandesav

Great news overall for FG-Lab.

I wouldn't worry too much about FG dropping 3- their last showing of 31% was a little too high to be realistic. Apparently the last time they were in the 30s was under Garret FitzGerald, so 28 is excellent!

Labour should be very happy to be up three!:D

Sinn Féin doing well may even help FG-Lab, as it will take votes from FF. Also if FF are supposedly not going to go into coalition with them, it increases the chances for FG-Labour, especially if you add the Greens in too.

lucernarian

Good news for FF by all means. While I don't mind seeing an increase in support for FF, I'd rather that it was for a reason other than "Poor Bertie". Mr. Ahern is well able to look after himself and I also feel that there are more capable politicians within FF who can do his job.

It's interesting to see the 3% rise for Labour. I wonder what's given them the rise? I can only think of little, insignificant reasons. Possibly the most significant reason is the statistical deviation?

Also kudos to Mike65 for pointing out that the PDs are not a national party. No PD candidate here in Louth. As I cannot vote for the PDs, there's not that much point taking samples from certain areas and then spreading them nationally. The PDs will probably hold at least 2 seats.

InFront

Jonny Arson wrote:

PDs are in the sh!t. Fiona O'Malley, Sexton, Grealish look gone. Parlon, Tim O'Malley, O'Donnell and Harney have almighty battles, call it 2 out of those 4 will be saved. McDowell is their safest seat and even he cant afford to get to cocky. No gains due. 1 safe-ish seat out of 8. 2% nationally is a reflection of the state of the party and 2% would be disasterous

Spot-on. I think McDowell has lost support but will still do reasonably well, the rest are looking very dodgy indeed and they could all go either way. I would expect they'll return three seats, hanging onto parliamentary representation by the skin of their teeth. They will sit on the fringes of Irish political life, before yielding to the fate of the Workers Party and CnaP before them. The PDs were not the first deviation out of FF, nor will they be the last.

Whatever you think of their policies and their politicians, their history, however brief, will be a very interesting one from the perspective of the history of modern Irish politics.

stepbar

I think Mc Dowell will find it hard to get in. The voters of the area are not stupid. Remember he lost his seat in 1997. So its not beyond him to perform poorly.

dajaffa

FF 36% (+2)
FG 28% (-3)
Lab 13% (+3)
Green 5% (-1)
SF 10% (=)
PD 2% (-1)
Others 6% (=)


The way I see it....

FF/PD = 38%
FG/Lab = 41%
FG/Lab/Green = 46%
FF/Lab = 49%

My prediction (and a few quid in the bookies 2moro!) is an FF/Lab gov if there isn't a decent swing in favour of the alternative. At 46% they'd be short 5ish seats, + have to get some independents or *gasp* SF. Going with FF would be the far smarter option for Lab.

flogen

mike65 wrote:

Why do peeps keep making predictions about PDs on the basis of a national poll when they are not a 'national' party?

Mike.

Well to make the comparison fairer, the PDs got 4% of the 1st preference vote nationally in 2002 - so by any yard stick 2% is bad news for them.

stepbar

*5 seats short - 1 socialist (Id be very suprised if Joe Higgins votes FF) + 4 independents of which one should be Michael Lowry. Need 3 more after that. So its very achieveable.

*All big assumptions

funktastic

Yeah the PDs could really be screwed if McDowell loses his seat. He's lost it twice - in 1989 and 1997.

ateam

A 3 point drop for Fine Gael is telling. I suspect many voters actually got to listen to Enda Kenny for the first time and didn't like what they heard.

brianthebard

That would be what FF are hoping for all right. Shouldn't your username be the b(ertie)team?

flogen

ateam wrote:

A 3 point drop for Fine Gael is telling. I suspect many voters actually got to listen to Enda Kenny for the first time and didn't like what they heard.

In fairness, I don't think anybody heard anything of what Kenny was saying in the last week or two - too many eyes on Bertie and to a lesser extent McDowell for anyone to actually be thinking about real politics rather than soap opera scandal.

I'd say the FF boost is less a show of support for Ahern in a tough time (a la last year) and more a pat on the back for things going so well in NI. If so, his speech to the UK parliament just before polling day should go down a treat - especially if Bertie gets more lovey-dovey words from Blair.

Tough time for the opposition - they need to steer the debate away from Ahern at all costs, even if it means ignoring the financial scandal we've been sitting through... they also need to get some serious momentum going - enough to equalise any boost Bertie may gain from a statesman appearance in London. I'm not sure if they can do it and I'm not sure if turning the attention towards them will backfire or not.

williamb

ateam wrote:

A 3 point drop for Fine Gael is telling. I suspect many voters actually got to listen to Enda Kenny for the first time and didn't like what they heard.

Except that the poll has Enda Kenny's personal approval rating up 6 points, suggesting that, despite your suspicions,those voters who heard him for the first time liked what they heard.It also suggests that the FF spin that Kenny is unelectable,and just not Taoiseach material, is failing.

This is Kenny's highest approval since he took over as party leader, so the meme that "Kenny is a lightweight and will personally blow the election for Fine Gael during the campaign" really ought to be retired.

PH01

As it looks like FF and LAB Government.

thebman

I think Bertie should rob a bank and get caught so that more people feel sorry for him. I can't believe people are stupid enough to feel sorry for somebody getting what they deserve for taking advantage of their position. The only possible justification is that the general opinion is the opposition is responsible for the leaks which doesn't really hold up as why are you against people who are exposing corruption?

Colonel Sanders

brim4brim wrote:

I think Bertie should rob a bank and get caught so that more people feel sorry for him. I can't believe people are stupid enough to feel sorry for somebody getting what they deserve for taking advantage of their position. The only possible justification is that the general opinion is the opposition is responsible for the leaks which doesn't really hold up as why are you against people who are exposing corruption?

the irish electorate aren't exactly known for their logic and rationality.

is_that_so

PH01 wrote:

As it looks like FF and LAB Government.

I wouldn't be so sure. Still too close to call as they say.
I wonder where that 13% don't knows will cast their votes.

28064212

I doubt Labour would go into government with FF unless they got some massive concessions, policy-wise, and possibly even the Taoiseach's office. From an interview with Pat Rabbitte:

Why FG rather than FF, which many would argue is the natural partner for Labour?
I think Labour would have most clout in government with Fine Gael. What people are saying to us is that they want Fianna Fáil put into opposition. I think for us to purport to be dissatisfied with the policies Fianna Fáil have pursued – on things like childcare and hospitals and on public housing provision – and then say we are going to put them back into office is not consistent.

Would Labour decide that FF without Bertie Ahern as leader would be enough of a compromise in the case of a hung Dáil – rather than having to return again to the people?
I have avoided getting into speculation about what happens after the people have voted. I am the architect of the fact that there is an alternative government on offer and I am committed to that.

JerkyBoy

From IT poll today:
On 2 per cent nationally, the PDs slipped into dangerous territory and the party does not have a single safe seat.


Music to my ears!

LuckyLloyd

Only two things:

1) Polls for SF will probably always be misleading as there is probably a fair amount of people who vote for them that would fail to admit it before or after an election.

2) McDowell will find a way to win his seat. I have little doubt about that.

El Stuntman

LuckyLloyd wrote:

McDowell will find a way to win his seat. I have little doubt about that.

are you trying to imply something there Lloyd??

and why do you think people won't admit to being SF supporters?????

LuckyLloyd

El Stuntman wrote:

are you trying to imply something there Lloyd??

and why do you think people won't admit to being SF supporters?????

Not implying anything other than he is a very committed and dogged campaigner with a very decent support team working behind him in his constituency. He gets voters out to tick the box beside his name come election day.

People don't admit to it because the stereotypical image of gun toting terriorists that wish to drag the country back to the dark ages and re - establish the primacy of the catholic church dies hard in the minds of many people. And as such, people don't like to admit to it because they wish to avoid debating the subject with family, friends, co - workers etc.

PH01

is_that_so wrote:

I wouldn't be so sure. Still too close to call as they say.
I wonder where that 13% don't knows will cast their votes.

The polls give a good indication how it will go in general, but how this translates to individual constituencies is another thing.

If you go through the constituencies it is hard to see where FG, LAB and the Greens will pick up enough seats. There's no doubt that they're going to do well but not that well. The Greens are doing well in the polls, but FG and LAB, even more so, aren't doing well enough to get over the line. And this is something FG and Lab are admitting privately.

Jonny Arson

ateam wrote:

A 3 point drop for Fine Gael is telling. I suspect many voters actually got to listen to Enda Kenny for the first time and didn't like what they heard.

Good spin but you need to try harder.

The truth is FG were surprised with the 31% they got in the same poll 2 weeks and many FG supporters did not take that figure legitimately and believed that they are actually within the 27-29% mark. 28% is where they FG probably are and I believe FF based on other polls are in 35-37% bracket which corresponds to their 36%. I believe this poll is the most accurate reflection of the state of the parties as of right now and I don't expect it to change much come election day barring major scandals for any party or a Bertiegate part 3 or 4!

E92

dajaffa wrote:

My prediction (and a few quid in the bookies 2moro!) is an FF/Lab gov if there isn't a decent swing in favour of the alternative. At 46% they'd be short 5ish seats, + have to get some independents or *gasp* SF. Going with FF would be the far smarter option for Lab.

FF get 81 seats on 41% of the vote last time. Therefore there should be more than enough for an FG+Lab+Green coalition if the findings were replicated on election day. I would have thought that this poll would be very disappointing for Feel and Fail to be honest. There was the whole thing about Berties payments the whole week(in Bertiegate Mk1 Feel and Fail gained 8 points in a similar poll),and NI on tuesday of course. 28% is more than adequate for FG. Thats what FG got in 97(FG got 54 seats back then). Lab on 13% is a huge increase for them, which is very good. They should be able to gain a few seats on that number. That would have FG and Labour up to at the very worst 77-79 seats. Add in the Greens 5 seats at the moment(I dont think anyone thinks the 5 green TDs will lose their seats), and thats 84, or 50%+1 exactly. More than likely the Greens will gain a seat in Wicklow, Galway West, Carlow-Kilkenny, giving them at least 8. That would be around 87 seats for FG,Lab, GP combined. So its game on for change without a doubt.

And of course Endas satisfaction rating is up 6 points to 47% and Pat Rabbittes is up to 50% too. Its very clear that the more people know or hear about Rabbitte or Kenny the more they like what they are hearing. It shows that despite the best efforts of some(Feel and Fail usually, but there are others) that Enda is seen as a credible Taoiseach by more and more people.

Gobán Saor

E92 wrote:

That would have FG and Labour up to at the very worst 77-79 seats.............the Greens will gain a seat in Wicklow, Galway West, Carlow-Kilkenny, giving them at least 8. That would be around 87 seats for FG,Lab, GP combined..............Its very clear that the more people know or hear about Rabbitte or Kenny the more they like what they are hearing. It shows that despite the best efforts of some(Feel and Fail usually, but there are others) that Enda is seen as a credible Taoiseach by more and more people.

C'mon, did the FG press office write that for you?:D That sounds more like wishful thinking than cool rational analysis. For comparison, Paddy Power has Bertie odds on (10/11) to be the next Taoiseach. Enda can be backed at 11/10. Or, if you fancy a little flutter, how about Biffo Cowen at 5/1?