State of play in your constituency

Jonny Arson

Dublin North East

Candidates:

TDs: Michael Woods (FF), Martin Brady (FF), Tommy Broughan (Lab)
Others: Brody Sweeney (FG), Cllr Terence Flanagan (FG), Cllr Larry O'Toole (SF) Cllr David Healy (Green), Keith Redmond (PD)

Fianna Fáil will lose a seat here based on a dreadful performance in the 2004 locals and inactivity from Michael Woods who decided at the last minute to run. Woods' high profile may be enough to save his seat which would see fellow FF TD Martin Brady lose his seat. Tommy Broughan of Labour is a certainty for a seat so that last seat comes down to a battle between Brody Sweeny of FG, Larry O'Toole of SF, David Healy of Green and one of the FF candidates.

O'Toole has been clear favourite for that last seat based on impressive SF local results in 2004 and strong constituency work particularly in the working class areas but FG's Brody Sweeney is making alot of ground with a high profile and if FG keep up their strong poll results, he could snatch the last seat. Healy of Greens could be a good outside bet as he's another good constituency worker.

I expect it will be:

Tommy Broughan (Lab)
Michael Woods (FF)
and for Brody Sweeney (FG) to snatch the last seat from O'Toole as the latter will have a problem with transfers, but it will be tight.


What the state of play in your constituency? Who will win?

Kerry South

TDs: John O'Donoghue (FF), Breda Moynihan Cronin (Labour), Healy Rae (Ind)

Others: Tom Fleming (FF), Seamus Cosai Fitzgerald (FG), Tom Sheehan (FG)

John O'Donoghue a shoo in, will top the poll and get elected in the first count. Breda Moynihan Cronin doing very well, the only Killarney town based candidate in the field and very popular in the constituency. Big fight for the final seat. Tom Fleming outpolled both Moynihan Cronin and Healy Rae in the first count last time round, geting 6,900 first preference, but ended up being squeezed out on transfers. This time round he'll have a bigger battle to hold that, and Tom Sheehan has emerged as favourite to take Healy Rae's seat. As Fleming and Sheehan are based in East Kerry and Healy Rae gets a lot of votes there, its really all to play for and depends on how East Kerry transfers amongst its candidates. Think FG may shade it from Healy Rae, with Fleming slipping back on his 2002 showing.

Dandesav

Dublin South

TDs: Olivia Mitchell (FG), Eamon Ryan (Green), Liz O'Donnell (PD), Tom Kitt (FF) and Séamus Brennan (FF).
Others: Alan Shatter (FG), Jim O'Leary (FG), Maria Corrigan (FF), Alex White (Lab), Aidan Culhane (Lab), Sorcha NicCormaic (SF), Shaun Treacy (SF) and Liam Ó Gógáin (Ind).

Prediction:
Olivia Mitchell (FG), Alan Shatter (FG), Eamon Ryan (Green), Tom Kitt (FF) and Séamus Brennan (FF).

Fine Gael only won one seat last time, which was disastrous for them in Dublin South, and there is no way they will do that badly again. This will mean Liz O'Donell losing her seat, which does look likely. FF are probably safe with two because they are both high-profile. However, I wouldn't rule out Alex White (Lab) as a bit of a dark horse, especially if FF have a bad day, and FG transfers go well. Eamon Ryan (Green) is safe.

InFront

Got there before me:) I concur. Unfortunately the FF guys look untouchable

Dandesav

InFront wrote:

Got there before me:) I concur. Unfortunately the FF guys look untouchable

Ha ha sorry about that!

It would be great if FF lost one but it's unlikely!

Badabing

Dandesav wrote:

Ha ha sorry about that!

It would be great if FF lost one but it's unlikely!

I hope ff get 3 seats in Dublin South and back into goverment, Maria Corrigan works hard on the ground i've been told and might have a say in the last seat.

mike65

Waterford

Outgoing

FF 2 (Ollie Wilkinson and Martin Cullen)
FG 1 (John Deasy)
Lab 1 (Brian O'Shea)

Candidates

Paudie Coffey FG Martin Cullen FF David Cullinane SF Jim Darcy FG John Deasy FG
John Halligan Workers' Party Francis Joseph Hennessy Independent
Brendan Kenneally FF Brendan McCann Green Brian O'Shea Labour Mary Roche Independent
Declan Waters Independent Ollie Wilkinson FF

The only seat thats open to question is Wilkinson who may swap with FFs Brendan Keneally but its unlikely. Sinn Feins David Cullinane is on the up but won't surprise the party status-quo.

Mike.

InFront

Badabing wrote:

I hope ff get 3 seats in Dublin South and back into goverment, Maria Corrigan works hard on the ground i've been told and might have a say in the last seat.

No chance! There would be a third FG or (one) Labour seat long before there would ever be a third FF seat in Dublin south. Especially with the strength of Mitchell's transfers, and the strength of the other alternative Government candidates.

Dandesav

InFront wrote:

No chance! There would be a third FG or (one) Labour seat long before there would ever be a third FF seat in Dublin south. Especially with the strength of Mitchell's transfers, and the strength of the other alternative Government candidates.

Exactly, and O'Donnell's vote is likely to collapse which will help FG. Tight transfers between FG, Labour and Green will also have an affect. So it's far more likely that it would be 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF and 1 Green, before 3 FF.

Voipjunkie

Jonny Arson wrote:

Dublin North East

Candidates:

TDs: Michael Woods (FF), Martin Brady (FF), Tommy Broughan (Lab)
Others: Brody Sweeney (FG), Cllr Terence Flanagan (FG), Cllr Larry O'Toole (SF) Cllr David Healy (Green), Keith Redmond (PD)

Fianna Fáil will lose a seat here based on a dreadful performance in the 2004 locals and inactivity from Michael Woods who decided at the last minute to run. Woods' high profile may be enough to save his seat which would see fellow FF TD Martin Brady lose his seat. Tommy Broughan of Labour is a certainty for a seat so that last seat comes down to a battle between Brody Sweeny of FG, Larry O'Toole of SF, David Healy of Green and one of the FF candidates.

O'Toole has been clear favourite for that last seat based on impressive SF local results in 2004 and strong constituency work particularly in the working class areas but FG's Brody Sweeney is making alot of ground with a high profile and if FG keep up their strong poll results, he could snatch the last seat. Healy of Greens could be a good outside bet as he's another good constituency worker.

I expect it will be:

Tommy Broughan (Lab)
Michael Woods (FF)
and for Brody Sweeney (FG) to snatch the last seat from O'Toole as the latter will have a problem with transfers, but it will be tight.


What the state of play in your constituency? Who will win?

I Dont think Healy will be in the running

SF should have a quota here on their own O'Toole took 4500 votes in 2004 while not all of that ward is in DNE the part where his base is is.
Forde took 3500 and the Howth Candidate took nearly 600 the quota last time out was 7300ish so SF if they get that vote out again should be home or close to it without needing transfers Although he did pick up 700 transfers in 2002 so he is not completely transfer resistant.

Sweeney is spending alot of money but whether that will convert into votes I don't know

I don't think that woods will come through either he is in his seventies now dropped from the cabinet and is obviously not interested in the job anymore he has been invisible for the last 5 years


My guess is that No one will make it on the first count and that Broughan and O'toole will make it on the 4th count when healy is eliminated woods will be eliminated next and brady will get in on those transfers

Redmond eliminated first with little effect on the places
Then Flanagan to go which will lift sweeney but not enough
Then woods will go and his transfers will elect brady to the last seat.

cruiserweight

Wexford

Candidates:
John Browne FF
Sean Connick FF
Michael W D'Arcy Jnr FG
John Dwyer SF
Tom Harpur Green
Brendan Howlin Labour
Paul Kehoe FG
Lisa McDonald FF
Alan McGuire Independent
Colm O'Gorman PD
Liam Twomey FG

At the moment the constituency is 2 FF, 2 FG and Labour. After the election it will probably be the same but with some personnel changes. John Dwyer has an outside chance, but it is unlikely. John Browne and Paul Kehoe should top the poll.

Badabing

Dandesav wrote:

Exactly, and O'Donnell's vote is likely to collapse which will help FG. Tight transfers between FG, Labour and Green will also have an affect. So it's far more likely that it would be 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF and 1 Green, before 3 FF.

Deffo 2ff seats here as they say all politics is local so if pepole put the work in they ars usually rewarded, id say labour will get o'donnells seat fg may have strechted their vote by having 3 canditates, should be intresting tho.

gandalf

Dublin South.

Rumours I am hearing is Kitt is quite worried about his seat.

Brennen is a definate (shame)
Mitchell is as well (shame also as I don't rate her)

The rest of the seats are too close to call. Its between the following

Shatter
O'Donnell
White
Kitt
Ryan

Its all down to transfers.

Voipjunkie

gandalf wrote:

Dublin South.

Rumours I am hearing is Kitt is quite worried about his seat.

.

I wouldn't believe that TDs start those rumours themselves to make sure their supporters come out the thing they hate more than anything else is if everyone says they a shoo in.

gandalf

Well as luck would have he just canvessed me and I just lied and told him he had my vote.

Wicklow:
Outgoing Jacob,Roche FF
McManus Labour
Fox-ind.
Timmins FG

Fox and Jacob are not running.

I reckon McManus and Roche and Timmins are certs.

The fourth I'd give to Debúrca of the Greens and the fifth will be a dog fight between FG,FF and labour(Kelly)

In actual fact the last two seats could go to any one of those four.Though it's possible that
there may well be a dog fight between FG's 2nd candidate and one of the other two FF candidates.I'd say the FG lad will make it in so 2FG,2lab and 1 green.
Others may disagree because
FF polled well in 02 with a scramble for the top 3 places with Liz in the middle and because Mildred Fox was from the FF gene pool.

A Dub in Glasgo

I go with my last constituency before I left

Dublin North West
Outgoing: Noel Ahern (FF), Pat Carey (FF) & Roisin Shortall (Lab)

Dessie Elliss for SF was close last time but could not pick up enough transfers to get the last seat.

Ahern will get back in with the other 2 seats between Carey/Shortall/Ellis. Transfers from Tormey (now FG) should get Shortall in so maybe last seat between Carey & Ellis with Carey shading it.

Voipjunkie

A Dub in Glasgo wrote:

I go with my last constituency before I left

Dublin North West
Outgoing: Noel Ahern (FF), Pat Carey (FF) & Roisin Shortall (Lab)

Dessie Elliss for SF was close last time but could not pick up enough transfers to get the last seat.

Ahern will get back in with the other 2 seats between Carey/Shortall/Ellis. Transfers from Tormey (now FG) should get Shortall in so maybe last seat between Carey & Ellis with Carey shading it.

DNW is very like DNE this time for SF in the local election Ellis vote was nearly the same as his first preference vote in the 2002 GE at 4300 then there was nearly 500 votes for his runing mate then the 2300 votes for the SF candidate in Ballymun. if they got that vote out again then they would be sitting on a Quota or very close to it and Ellis did pick up 800 transfers in 2002
There is a seat there for SF if they get the vote out

My guess is
1 ff
1 Lab
1 SF

A Dub in Glasgo

Voipjunkie wrote:

DNW is very like DNE this time for SF in the local election Ellis vote was nearly the same as his first preference vote in the 2002 GE at 4300 then there was nearly 500 votes for his runing mate then the 2300 votes for the SF candidate in Ballymun. if they got that vote out again then they would be sitting on a Quota or very close to it and Ellis did pick up 800 transfers in 2002
There is a seat there for SF if they get the vote out

My guess is
1 ff
1 Lab
1 SF

That would be nice to see

Our man in Havana

Laois/Offaly
Outgoing TDs
3 FF Cowan, Flemming and Maloney
1 FG Enright
1 PD Parlon

Parlon is in serious trouble and is likely to loose his seat to Charles Flanagan from whom he took the seat from in 2002. Enright is safe with transfers from the other FG Buckley based in Tullamore.
FF look likely to hold their 3 seats with Brian Cowan getting 2 quotas. The 2 Laois based TDs Flemming and Maloney may have a fight to retain thier seats as they are loosing support to SF. Flemming is the one to suffer most I say but is unlikely to loose his seat unless Parlon pulls it out of the bag and retains his seat.

My prediction
3 FF Cowan, Flemming and Maloney
2 FG Enright and Flanagan

The_Minister

Bond-007 wrote:

Parlon is in serious trouble and is likely to loose his seat

Red C had Parlon keeping his seat, and it tends to underestimate PDs.

E92

Michael Mc Dowell admitted recently that he was in danger of losing his seat. I very much doubt that the PDs will have more that 3 or 4 seats after the election(and thats me being kind, btw)

E92

Getting back to what the thread was about, I'll mention my constituency, Cork South Central.

Outgoing TDs:
Dan Boyle- Greens
Micheál Martin- Fianna Fáil
Batt O'Keeffe- Feel and Fail
John Deenehy- Fell and Fail as well
Simon Coveny- Fine Gael.

Candidates this time-
Simon Coveny,Deirdre Clune, Jerry Buttimer- Fine Gael

John Deenehy, Micheál Martin, Michael Mc Grath(who IIRC is being bankrolled to the tune of €450,000 by a certain Owen O'Callaghan, who is a rip roaring Feel and Fail supporter, who wouldn't happen to own that property development company by any chance?(sarcasm))- Fianna Fáil

John Minihan - Progressive Democrats(the only thing progressive about them is their decline in the polls:D)

Ciarán Lynch-Pairtí an Luch Oibre(Labour)

Henry Cremin-ourselves

Predictions: Simon Coveny, Dan Boyle and Micheál Martin to hold onto their seats. Michael Mc Grath has a good chance of taking John Dennehys seat(theres only 2 Feel and Fail seats here this time around fortunately). Either Deirdre Clune or Jerry Buttimer to take the final remaining seat.

Most likely outcome- 2XFF and 2XFG, 1XGP

Dont write off Ciarán Lynch of Labour either. Theres a good chance he may take the final seat in this constituency, in lieu of either Dan Boyle or the extra seat that FG are hoping to pick up here.

Dirk Gently

Dub north west will most likely return.....

Noel Ahern (FF),

Dessie Ellis (SF) &

Roisin Shortall (Lab),

although rumour has it that one of the sunday papers will drag up some dirt on Ellis (the local SF'ers reckon it's going to be bad) this Sunday. People here are aware of his past already though and it doesn't seem to stop them voting for him, so I still reckon he will get in ahead of Carey (FF) and Dr.Bill (FG). Hopefully Dr.Bill will give up after this election.

nesf

E92 wrote:

Predictions: Simon Coveny, Dan Boyle and Micheál Martin to hold onto their seats. Michael Mc Grath has a good chance of taking John Dennehys seat(theres only 2 Feel and Fail seats here this time around fortunately). Either Deirdre Clune or Jerry Buttimer to take the final remaining seat.

Most likely outcome- 2XFF and 2XFG, 1XGP

Dont write off Ciarán Lynch of Labour either. Theres a good chance he may take the final seat in this constituency, in lieu of either Dan Boyle or the extra seat that FG are hoping to pick up here.

I'd concur. It looks like there will be a very tough fight for that fifth seat.

jd

Tristrame wrote:

Wicklow:
.I'd say the FG lad will make it in so 2FG,2lab and 1 green.
Others may disagree because

Something wrong here, you have Roche losing his seat~?

nesf

My old constituency (i.e. where my parents are from/still are) Cork North West.

Essentially an old conservative rural constituency. Three seats which (essentially) will be divided between FF and FG. Labour used to have a seat, back in the 50s but haven't polled well since.

Last time it was 2 FF with the two Moynihans Donal and Micheal with FG's Gerard Murphy.

This time with the change in the borders Batt O'Keeffe is running here and that complicates things a lot for FF. It's still a three seater and tbh I can't see Gerard Murphy losing his seat. The general opinion that I've heard from there is that Donal Moynihan will lose his seat to Batt O'Keeffe considering that he'll bring a strong base vote from Ballincollig with him into the constituency.

Most likely, 2 FF and 1 FG again. I cannot see it going 3 FF and 2 FG is unlikely considering the strength of the FF candidates on the ground though there is a chance that the three way fight might mess things up and FG might get a second seat through Micheal Creed considering how well he polled last time around.

Neither the Green or Labour candidate will get a look in tbh.

Voipjunkie

E92 wrote:

Michael Mc Dowell admitted recently that he was in danger of losing his seat. I very much doubt that the PDs will have more that 3 or 4 seats after the election(and thats me being kind, btw)

As I said already TDs do this all the time you cannot take it seriously it is to ensure all his supporter get out and vote and don't presume he is safe because he is PD leader.

That said Himself and Harney would be the only 2 that should definitely be back
Sexton is gone
Grealish should be
Parlon not sure
O'Donnell should be back but she went very quiet for a long time
O'Malley should be gone both of them

Gobán Saor

Dublin Central:

I predict, Bertie, Mary-Lou McDonald, Tony Gregory and Joe Costello.

Hard to believe but FF have totally messed up. Bertie wanted Cyprian Brady but Dermot Fitzpatrick suceeded in getting daughter Mary on to the ticket. So Cyprian had to be added as a third candidate. The two wings of FF are barely on speaking terms and whereas a two candidate strategy might have pulled off two seats with Berties surplus pulling in the second, now the lowest FF candidate's transfers will probably leak away from the party in large numbers.

Conversely SF are totally united behind the "parachuted" candidate, Mary-Lou. Nicky Keogh came within a whisker of the last seat in 2002 and he is actively canvassing hard in the Cabra area. As is veteran Christy Burke in the inner city area. SF are even canvassing intently in the middle-class parts of the constituency and seem very confident of success.

FG have a good young candidate in Paschal Donohoe - he has been active on the ground but I think he would need a huge national swing to FG to get a seat. If he was to succeed I think the one to lose out would be Tony Gregory who, after 25 years in the Dail, is under pressure from SF and Joe Costello.

Barring a huge swing to the Greens, I don't see Patricia McKenna in contention. Even though I live in a middle class part of the constituency which should be natural Green territory, they are virtually invisible on the ground and have no local presence.

jd

jd wrote:

Something wrong here, you have Roche losing his seat~?

Whoops,I dont expect him to lose his seat but it's possible,theres a lot of people don't like him.
My last tot there should have been 1ff,1fg,2 lab and 1 green.
Though I think the last 2 seats are interchangeable between lab,FG and the greens,it's anybodies guess really.

is_that_so

Voipjunkie wrote:

I Dont think Healy will be in the running

SF should have a quota here on their own O'Toole took 4500 votes in 2004 while not all of that ward is in DNE the part where his base is is.
Forde took 3500 and the Howth Candidate took nearly 600 the quota last time out was 7300ish so SF if they get that vote out again should be home or close to it without needing transfers Although he did pick up 700 transfers in 2002 so he is not completely transfer resistant.

Sweeney is spending alot of money but whether that will convert into votes I don't know

I don't think that woods will come through either he is in his seventies now dropped from the cabinet and is obviously not interested in the job anymore he has been invisible for the last 5 years


My guess is that No one will make it on the first count and that Broughan and O'toole will make it on the 4th count when healy is eliminated woods will be eliminated next and brady will get in on those transfers

Redmond eliminated first with little effect on the places
Then Flanagan to go which will lift sweeney but not enough
Then woods will go and his transfers will elect brady to the last seat.

DNE has been inclined to protest over the years. I recall a college student becoming a councillor some time back but she disappeared soon after.
Council elections don't always turn into Dail seats.

I would not rule out the Woods factor at all, he has been there forever and retains some degree of popularity. He also has phenomenal experience. His transfers may be crucial. That said Broughan will get back in , one FF(probably Brady with Woods transfers to help him on) and I suspect Sweeney might be in with a shout. There are some parts to that constituency to which he appeals very strongly. To his benefit is the fact that he is not a career politician. After that who knows where the 4th seat will go. Given the demographics in some parts of the constituency, Healy could be in with a shout and of course O'Toole.

I have also been reliably informed that Flanagan's looks are making waves for him amongst the ladies.

All told will be very interesting.