State of play in your constituency

is_that_so

Louth will most likely return 3 out of 4 candidates.

Ahern
Morgan
O'Dowd

Some people reckon that O'Dowd may be under pressure from McGuinness, but her target is the invisible Seamus Kirk and I suspect she will take the second seat for FG.

Given the traditional "antipathy" between Drogheda and Dundalk , it is fairly likely that Drogheda will want a local TD in the shape of O'Dowd.

Also of interest here, as in Meath and Kildare, is how the demographics, especially the influx into Drogheda will affect matters.

redspider

gandalf wrote:

Dublin South.
Rumours I am hearing is Kitt is quite worried about his seat.
Brennen is a definate (shame)
Mitchell is as well (shame also as I don't rate her)

Hi Gandalf,

Ryan of the Green Party should get in and Kitt is also likely even though he may be low on the list when getting in. I reckon the key battle in this constituency is between Shatter (FG) and Liz O'Donnell (PD). I think that one is too close to call, but I wouldnt discount the pulling power of O'Donnell, even if she has taken a partial back seat in politics for some time. Shatter has been out of circulation since last time and noticeably quiet so I dont think he will have enough. I think Liz will get in. Paddypower reckons:

Séamus Brennan (FF) 1 - 100
Eamon Ryan (GP) 1 - 33
Olivia Mitchell (FG) 1 - 33
Tom Kitt (FF) 1 - 14
Alan Shatter (FG) 1 - 3
Alex White (Lab) 10 - 11
Liz O'Donnell (PD) 7 - 4

I reckon: 2xFF, 1xGP, 1xFG, 1xPD

Alex White has a chance to spoil the 'party' but only an outside chance imo.

Redspider

ps: Hi Mike65, in terms of Waterford I think you are calling it correct. Btw, any chance of starting that CL thread now, the real one?

tenandtracer

Sitting;
Brian Lenihan.
Joe Higgins.
Joan Burton.

A constituency with an ever increasing population most of whom have experienced the current government's policies (traffic, debatable public transport, poor educational infrastructure), so maybe a bit of a backlash in store for FF here.

Standing:
Brian Lenihan (FF)
Joe Higgins (Soc)
Leo Varadakar (FG)
Joan Burton (Lab)
Felix Gallagher (SF)
Gerry Lynam (FF)
Roderic O'Gorman (Green)
Mags Murray (PD)

The quota may be 500-600 more than the last time, I expect Lenihan not to exceed the quota. He may have to wait for the elimination of Murray. Higgins to get in with transfers from Lynam. Burton made it the last time with strong local transfers which may not be there this time, so Varadkar to pip her. Paddypower goes for same three.

Villain

Carlow - Kilkenny

I reckon it will end up like:
Aylward (FF)
Hogan (FG)
McGuinness (FF)
Phelan (FG)
White (Greens)

The first 3 are almost a given with Aylward, Hogan and McGuinness, its the last two seats that going to be very close, imo outgoing FF TD MJ Nolan has little chance of getting the Carlow vote which will sway to Browne (FG) and White (Greens) its just whether the Carlow voters turn out in high numbers that is the question if they do then Browne could beat Phelan to the post either way I think it will end up 2 FG, 2 FF and 1 Green. Thats a gain for FG and Greens and a loss for FF.

Badabing

Gob&#225 wrote: »

Dublin Central:

I predict, Bertie, Mary-Lou McDonald, Tony Gregory and Joe Costello.

Hard to believe but FF have totally messed up. Bertie wanted Cyprian Brady but Dermot Fitzpatrick suceeded in getting daughter Mary on to the ticket. So Cyprian had to be added as a third candidate. The two wings of FF are barely on speaking terms and whereas a two candidate strategy might have pulled off two seats with Berties surplus pulling in the second, now the lowest FF candidate's transfers will probably leak away from the party in large numbers.

Conversely SF are totally united behind the "parachuted" candidate, Mary-Lou. Nicky Keogh came within a whisker of the last seat in 2002 and he is actively canvassing hard in the Cabra area. As is veteran Christy Burke in the inner city area. SF are even canvassing intently in the middle-class parts of the constituency and seem very confident of success.

FG have a good young candidate in Paschal Donohoe - he has been active on the ground but I think he would need a huge national swing to FG to get a seat. If he was to succeed I think the one to lose out would be Tony Gregory who, after 25 years in the Dail, is under pressure from SF and Joe Costello.

Barring a huge swing to the Greens, I don't see Patricia McKenna in contention. Even though I live in a middle class part of the constituency which should be natural Green territory, they are virtually invisible on the ground and have no local presence.

Interesting you're goin for 3 left tds in Dublin central, id say bertie will put out all the stops to get Brady or Fitzpatrick in with him.

Roanmore

nesf wrote:

My old constituency (i.e. where my parents are from/still are) Cork North West.

Essentially an old conservative rural constituency. Three seats which (essentially) will be divided between FF and FG. Labour used to have a seat, back in the 50s but haven't polled well since.

Last time it was 2 FF with the two Moynihans Donal and Micheal with FG's Gerard Murphy.

This time with the change in the borders Batt O'Keeffe is running here and that complicates things a lot for FF. It's still a three seater and tbh I can't see Gerard Murphy losing his seat. The general opinion that I've heard from there is that Donal Moynihan will lose his seat to Batt O'Keeffe considering that he'll bring a strong base vote from Ballincollig with him into the constituency.

Most likely, 2 FF and 1 FG again. I cannot see it going 3 FF and 2 FG is unlikely considering the strength of the FF candidates on the ground though there is a chance that the three way fight might mess things up and FG might get a second seat through Micheal Creed considering how well he polled last time around.

Neither the Green or Labour candidate will get a look in tbh.

Michael Creed use to be the golden boy in this constituency, what happened to him?

Voipjunkie

is_that_so wrote:

DNE has been inclined to protest over the years. I recall a college student becoming a councillor some time back but she disappeared soon after.
Council elections don't always turn into Dail seats.

I would not rule out the Woods factor at all, he has been there forever and retains some degree of popularity. He also has phenomenal experience. His transfers may be crucial. That said Broughan will get back in , one FF(probably Brady with Woods transfers to help him on) and I suspect Sweeney might be in with a shout. There are some parts to that constituency to which he appeals very strongly. To his benefit is the fact that he is not a career politician. After that who knows where the 4th seat will go. Given the demographics in some parts of the constituency, Healy could be in with a shout and of course O'Toole.

I have also been reliably informed that Flanagan's looks are making waves for him amongst the ladies.

All told will be very interesting.

DNE only has 3 seats same as last time

is_that_so

Voipjunkie wrote:

DNE only has 3 seats same as last time

Yes it does indeed. My apologies.

nesf

Roanmore wrote:

Michael Creed use to be the golden boy in this constituency, what happened to him?

From talking to my father he's tipped to go past Murphy.

I'm going to have to revise my opinion I think. So much is changing in this election.

murphaph

tenandtracer wrote:

A constituency with an ever increasing population most of whom have experienced the current government's policies (traffic, debatable public transport, poor educational infrastructure), so maybe a bit of a backlash in store for FF here.

One can but hope. Surely DW must be due to become a 4 seater sooner rather than later?? It's boring with the same crowd getting in all the time. I voted FF last time but not this tme. I feel lied to and let down by the current government. I would dearly like to see Mr Lenihan dumped out but there's too many FF heads in the constituency for that to happen. I think however that Varadkar might get in at the expense of Burton. I would like Varadkar/Burton/Higgins (being realstic cos the green candidate has no chance) just to see FF OUT!

Aesop

Limerick East (5 seats)

Candidates
John Devane - Ind, Trish Forde Brennan - Green
Cathal McCarthy - Ind, Patrick Moore - Ind
*Michael Noonan - FG, *Willie O'Dea - FF
Kieran O'Donnell - FG, Conor O'Donoghue - CS
*Tim O'Malley - PD, *Jan O'Sullivan - Lab
*Peter Power - FF, Maurice Quinlivan - SF
Denis Riordan - Ind, Noreen Ryan - FF
( * - Outgoing )

Tim O'Malley is the most likely outgoing TD to lose his seat here. At the moment it looks like Kieran O'Donnell would take it. Willie O'Dea will walk in, the only question is by how much and will Peter Power do as well this time in his transfers as he did last time. Hard to see any change other than Kieran O'Donnell for Tim O'Malley.

Prediction - 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab

susanna

Outgoing:
Trevor Sargent (GP)
Jim Glennon (FF)
GV Wright (FF)
Sean Ryan (Lab)

Candidates: Trevor Sargent (GP), Joe Corr (GP), John O'Leary (FF), Michael Kennedy (FF), Darragh O'Brien (FF), James Reilly (FG), Brendan Ryan (Lab), Clare Daly (SP), Matt McCormick (SF), Tom Morrissey (PD), David O'Connor (Ind), Cathal Loftus (CSP), John Donnelly (ICP)

A difficult one to predict as three of the four sitting TD's are not running this time around, with Brendan Ryan standing for his brother's seat. Much of Glennon's support will go John O'Leary's way, however I would be very surprised if FF retain two seats. James Reilly should win back the seat Nora Owen lost last time around for FG. Clare Daly came close in 2002, and does a lot of work on the ground so she cant be ruled out. Trevor Sargent should easily top the poll.

Predictions: 1 GP, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab