IMS/ Millward Brown Poll - Irish Independent 14/5/07

E92

Politics.ie wrote:

ff 35 -3

fg 26 +3

lab 13 +1

sf 10 +2

To add to what was said there the PDs were on 3% down 1, the Greens on 5%, Sinn Fein on 10% up 2 and the rest on 8%.

Heres a little table comparing a similar IMS poll around this time 5 years ago, what the parties actually got in the general Election in 2002, the last IMS poll and this one for fianna Fail and Fine Gael

Fianna Fáil:50%(before last GE), 41%(GE result), 38%(last IMS poll), 35%(latest)

Fine Gael: 18%, 22%, 23%, 26%.

Basically FF have dropped 15 points in the last 5 years by that poll and FG have gained 8 points.

The other really good news in this poll for the alternative is that for the first ever time in a Millward Brown/IMS poll is that the alternative is ahead of the incumbants. If they of all polls are saying it,then surley the prospects of an alternative is becoming an ever closer reality.

Villain

The trend is going against FF with FG, Labour and SF making gains, I don't want to drag this thread off topic but I wonder what is changing people's opinion is it simply the policies each party are putting forward or is Bertie's finances starting to put people off?

It will be intersting to see how the polls look after they include reaction to Thursday Debate.

Victor Meldrew

The only poll that matters is in the 24th, If you want change then make sure you vote. DO NOT under any circumstances think this is a done deal....

A lot of seats will go down to 10 counts and re-counts and those will make all the difference, so all your preferences matter.

Lets get them out with enough force that that grinning crook from drumcondra is kicked out of his role as leader of the opposition .

I'd also like to see roche and cullen out of the Dail. Bertie leaving the dail would be sweet, but short of lobotomising his constituents this is not going to happen..

PH01

That's it. We've reached the tipping point. It's goodbye FF, hello FG.
We can now begin to look forward to 5 years of rainbow government.

spanner

but will the swing be enough for FF to lose seats, comparing the local Red C polls to the national ones seem to say that they will lose votes but not enough to lose their seat

we will see..

Victor Meldrew

PH01 wrote:

That's it. We've reached the tipping point. It's goodbye FF, hello FG.
We can now begin to look forward to 5 years of rainbow government.

Not yet we haven't, what we need is enough FF seats to be lost to ensure a strong government that will not result in another election in 18 months and we also need enough unseated FF ex tds to make the rest of them lynch bertie and his henchmen

then, we will have a chastised FF in opposition (good) and a new government

Villain

FF+SF looks like it may have the numbers!!!

PH01

Victor Meldrew wrote:

Not yet we haven't, what we need is enough FF seats to be lost to ensure a strong government that will not result in another election in 18 months

Strong government with FG, LAB and the Greens?! I don't think so. All of the FG front bench are newcomers to ministerial positions and Labour don't fare much better. Then couple that with the unknown quantity of the Greens then 'strong' wouldn't be the word I'd use. It's akin in sporting terms of putting someone with little or no managerial experience in charge of an international soccer team (I'm not naming names ).
But on the other hand, maybe a change would be good. They'll make mistakes and take risks, and maybe just maybe they'll get a couple of things right.

Victor Meldrew wrote:

...lynch bertie and his henchmen...

That's a bit extreame isn't it?

raven136

SF to gain enough seats to support a Fianna Fail government.Wonder will they be "good enough" for FF then?

daveirl

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Villain

One Poll means nothing but a trend in polls can give some insight.

is_that_so

irish1 wrote:

FF+SF looks like it may have the numbers!!!

They may have, but FF+Lab is a much more palatable option and less likely to leave FF open to a backlash and a seat meltdown. If FF+SF is an option I would expect FF will opt for opposition.
There are still many people who do not see SF as a credible option and would not vote to see them in Govt. Not this time anyway.

This poll has excluded the don't knows. It also, like any poll, cannot get into the mind of a voter in those few seconds before s/he starts choosing.
Have a look at the piece Michael Lehane did on last Sunday's Week in Politics.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Voipjunkie

daveirl wrote:

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Correct because we will have 43 polls and while it may be true that the PDs are going to get 3% Nationally they will get far higher in a few key constituencies and while SF may be only 2% behind Labour they will be lucky to get half the number of seats.
If you ignore the polls and sit down and look at the constituencies it is hard to find the 30 seats that FG/Labour need and even if you add the greens it is still hard to see FF losing 25+ seats even on a 35% share of the vote

Voipjunkie

irish1 wrote:

FF+SF looks like it may have the numbers!!!

I doubt it SF will be lucky to get 10 seats FF are likely to be in the mid 60s

Victor Meldrew

PH01 wrote:

That's a bit extreame isn't it?

This is FF we are talking about, it'll be bloody, you don't get a blindfold :eek:

raven136

think sf will pick up 2 in donegal,mary lou and larry o toole in dublin.Cant honsetly see ff dropping so badly,the national polls are bad but they could still take seats while dropping percentages.

PH01

Voipjunkie wrote:

I doubt it SF will be lucky to get 10 seats FF are likely to be in the mid 60s

You'll get real crap odd on SF getting 10 seats. All the pundits and bookies tipping 10 seats for the Shinners, and I'll reckon they'll do it.

But will that mean they'll be in government with FF?
No, I reckon FF will get about 70 seats and they'll be lucky to get 72. They could form a government with SF but they'll also need the backing of a few Indos.
But all this is very unlikely to happen. A FF\LAB partnership is far more likely.

Voipjunkie

PH01 wrote:

You'll get real crap odd on SF getting 10 seats. All the pundits and bookies tipping 10 seats for the Shinners, and I'll reckon they'll do it.

But will that mean they'll be in government with FF?
No, I reckon FF will get about 70 seats and they'll be lucky to get 72. They could form a government with SF but they'll also need the backing of a few Indos.
But all this is very unlikely to happen. A FF\LAB partnership is far more likely.

SF will do it on a good day but they could just as easily narrowly miss out on a couple like Mary Lou Larry O'Toole,Ellis or 1 of the donegal seats
So 10 on a good day.

FF will be lucky to stay in the 70s

I agree FF/Lab is the only likely stable Government as FG/Lab/Greens are likely to be too short and even if they could get the independents to support them for the election of a Taoiseach the first hard decision they will be gone

Rock Climber

irish1 wrote:

FF+SF looks like it may have the numbers!!!

So a vote for Sinn Féin is a vote for Bertie...
Do ye hear that protesting vote?

Villain

Well obviously Bertie is saying no to Sinn Fein now and most people won't expect a FF SF so SF will probably still get FF votes, its just when the counting is over and the seat numbers are out FF will be looking to see who they can form the next Government with I personally don't want a FF - SF Government, I was simply pointing out that this poll shows it may be a possibility.

gandalf

Victor Meldrew wrote:

The only poll that matters is in the 24th,

This is the only truth of this poll. It means nothing unless it tallies up with what actually happens next week.

If the trends appears to be continuing at the weekend then I expect FF and the PD's to increase the negativity that has permeated their campaigns so far.

But Victor M is right about every preference making a difference and I expect to see alot of recounts the weekend after next. Maybe we'll take a leaf out of the US book and head for the courts after that LOL.

DeepBlue

is_that_so wrote:

Have a look at the piece Michael Lehane did on last Sunday's Week in Politics.

That piece was quite good - direct link.

A good point was made in that clip that practically all the parties have a realistic chance of getting into Government after the election.

I think most people would recognise that Brian Cowen is an excellent media performer for FF and in that clip he appeared to rule out going into Government with SF but then left the door slightly ajar at the end of the interview implying that it was policy issues that separated them. Of course policy issues can be negotiated .

It all depends on the numbers of seats and if FF and SF combined have a majority after the election only the most naive will believe that they won't at least have talks about forming a coalition.

Labour surprised everyone by going into Government with FF after the 1992 election so anything is possible.
An FF/SF coalition may be unlikely but it's definitely a possibility. If the numbers add up FF can easily spin it by saying that it was "the mandate given by the people" or some other guff.

jank

IF the numbers are right then FF will go into goverenment with SF.

However I cant see FF getting into the 70's at all. This would mean they would need the backing off to many Independants to form a stable government.

The numbers wont add up.

swiss

Just on the point of seat re-adjustments in the light of opinion poll fluctuations, I personally would agree with the point that if you break down the likely candidates to get elected on a constituency by constituency basis, the number of seats actually in play are fewer than I would have previously suspected. Once you discount the 'safe' seats, there are however a number of battleground areas and it is likely that the results in these areas will determine the make-up of the next Dáil.

Incidentally, a blog entry on the irishelection website shows the seat breakdowns if the bookies' favorites win their seats here.

bemmet

Thanks Swiss- great link to Paddy Power and their constituency betting break downs .
Most interesting.It seems as if all is yet to play for .

I suspect that FG headquarters on counting day might resemble Kinnocks Millbank labour headquarters on count night many years ago.
The night when he and his party counted their chickens ,a tad before they had hatched.

As that oh so wise political commentator said recently on the late late show when asked to predict the result ,in the middle of smear campaign and with the odds running heavily against FF, FF he said are the munster of Irish politics.

Another night ,like the wonders of cardiff for Munster,beckons I feel.


And Victor, you like your alter ego on TV , can spend the next 5 years whining ,whinging ,moaning and wailing . I look forward to hearing you rant when the results are known.

Jonny Arson

Don't forget IMS have a history of greatly overestimating the FF vote and underestimating the FG vote as seen in 2002 with them putting FF on 50% when they actually got 42% on polling day.

if that basis is continued then you change Fíanna Fail's name to Fíanna F**ked.