Ahern v Kenny tonight

jmayo

Jackz wrote:

I agree Fg do have better than Enda Kenny; Richard Bruton, but he is the only one. Are Hayes or O' Keeffe for example minister material?

But Martin "where can I waste another 40 million" Cullen, Dick "it's nothing to do with me" Roche, Conor "I'll have asleep after me kebabs" Lenihan, Joe "the iodine tablets will be in the mail" Jacob are?

Villain

I was talking to a few of my mates this morning who don't have any real interest in Politics and would be undecided voters i.e. they will wait till I tell them who to vote for Saturday night in the pub and that will be number 1 for Mary White and 2 for Fergal Browne btw.

But anyway on topic 3 of them said they were surprised at how good Enda Kenny was and while they thought Bertie was better all 3 of them used the word Arrogant to describe his performance. The last mate thought it was the most borring thing ever and turned off after 20 minutes but he did say that Bertie was doting about the health system being good.

The Rooster

jmayo wrote:

But Martin "whare can I waste another 40 million" Cullen, Dick "it's nothing to do with me" Roche, Joe "the iodine tablets will be in the mail" Jacob are?

A spell in the opposition would be of large medium term benefit for FF. Get rid of the dead wood and give some of the up and coming bright sparks a chance to shine from the opposition benches. Also help them draw a line in the sand re past bribes etc and start with a clean slate.

redspider

ateam wrote:

What viewers did the show get?

Edit: read on rte site that an average of 835,000 viewers tuned in last night, at one point 1.2 million viewers were watching it. Inevitable therefore, that the show will have an electoral impact.

According to RTE:

"the programme had an average audience of 941,000 and a national audience share of more than 63%"

It would be better to get an independent source on the viewing figures though.

Redspider

PoolDude

It might be interesting to see the two possible team line outs to better understand who has the best Ministerial team and subs bench. I don't necessarily mean current ministers for FF/PD's but the best teams both options could put out compared - and then what the best option form a FF/Lab government would look like (just cos I think we may end up with that).

redspider

Tristrame wrote:

Even Vincent Browne thought Ahern won it last night on his radio show as did all of his panel and 2 thirds of the people he said he texted on his own phone last night.

By the way whenever I hear a report from RTÉ's Alan Mccullagh I always get the impression he's not in the FF camp. You take George Lee then and try to tell me that he is FF leaning...? Quite the opposite I'd say.

In terms of McCullagh and Lee, your point is valid in that RTE in the main is not pro-FF.

However, Miriam last night was slightly more pro-FF than FG, and today RTE calling FF the winner of the debate based on anecdotal evidence, when I think it is not in their remit nor in their charter to do so, can also be seen as being pro-FF.

This type of debate shouldn't have a 'winner', it was not a competition, and its up to the voters to decide who to vote for, NOT RTE to influence, whether intentional or not. Neither a poll on boards.ie, nor texters to Vincent Browne's show can be the baramoter of who 'won', and what is winning anyway?

If you think about it, with FF on 36% or whatever it is and FG on 28% or whatever it is, those voters who have already made up their minds will score the debate accordingly. Getting neutral analysis on this is next to impossible, if not impossible, which is why a 'winner' should not be declared by RTE. They have a public service responsibility as defined in their charter to be politically neutral. Their current reporting on that debate last night is not neutral in my opinion.

You cant go by newspapers either as many of those have a political bias one way or the other at any point in time.

Redspider

burnedfaceman

excellent post redspider, very true

Jackz

Poor Martin Cullen taking the rap for something Noel Dempsey had signed up to. So the system was being used in Holland when they bought it turned out later to be a dud yea it was a waste of money. We need to move towards E-voting and internet voting to reduce spoiled votes and envolve more people people in the democratic process.

Dick Roche (whom I personally dislike) was arrogant and said the wrong thing.
Aside from providing the money to sort the water situation which was already available to Galway Council how would a FG minister have dealt with the situation? People mention water tankers but that water needs to be boiled before being comsumed anyway (Dirty tankers). I think we should have tankers in the country myself that can be deployed to where they are needed at a given time ( like when uranium is found in a well or whatever), that can deliver drinkable water.

jdivision

Miriam O'Callaghan was terrible. Absolutely awful. How they can justify her receiving such a large salary is beyond me. Rubbish questions and failure to control the debate. She also shouldn't have been chairing it in the first place because her brother's running for FF and she seemed to give Bertie a very easy ride. Enda was poor I thought.

darkman2

I look forward to results day. If the Greens dont have the numbers then it's FF/LAB or No Dail. Maybe Pat Rabbitte would actually be wiser ditching FG/Greens and just going straight in with Fianna Fail? Pat Rabbitte will be a liability to Labour if they could form coalition with Fianna Fail but wont.

PoolDude

Labour won't answer that question.

I asked Brendan Howlin, who I respect as a very good politician, if the option was returning to the country or FF what would they do and who would lead the party given Rabitte's stance. Here is what he said:

You can be in no doubt from the very clear statement from Pat Rabbitte that the firm intention of the Labour Party is to replace both parts of the current government. It seems from our canvass reports and from all recent opinion polls, that objective has every prospect of success.
If the decision of the people next Thursday is to deny both blocks( FF/PD and Lab/FG ) a majority,then the other minority parties and independents will obviously come into play. I certainly could not predict the outcome of that process.
I believe all newly elected members to the 30th. Dail will share a responsibility to ensure that a stable government is formed.
Sincerely,
Brendan Howlin

I'm a little frustrated as it did not answer my question.

brianthebard

I believe that a FF/Lab government would be a last resort, but its one that Labour would be willing to take. For what its worth I would prefer to see Labour in government even if its not with their preferred partners, rather than having the same government as the last 10 years. However I have to say I feel it is a slightly moot point until we see the results.

nesf

brianthebard wrote:

I believe that a FF/Lab government would be a last resort, but its one that Labour would be willing to take. For what its worth I would prefer to see Labour in government even if its not with their preferred partners, rather than having the same government as the last 10 years. However I have to say I feel it is a slightly moot point until we see the results.

Honestly, as someone who is fairly pro-PDs I cannot see a return of the present Government. I think it's FF/Lab vs FG/Lab/Greens and it'll just depend on whether FG or FF get the numbers at the end of the day, I think.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Dave!

I win a few quid if FG & Labour form the next government, come on lads!

The Rooster

DaveMcG wrote:

I win a few quid if FG & Labour form the next government, come on lads!

Presumably you've the Greens in there too? Otherwise your money's already lost

Dave!

No, hoping they won't be needed

If it happens to leak that Bertie Ahern kills puppies, then it could be a landslide.........

nesf

DaveMcG wrote:

I win a few quid if FG & Labour form the next government, come on lads!

Agreed with The Rooster, you'd want to get very good odds for the Greens not being in there. I've a few on FF/Lab myself. The odds on FG/Lab/Greens are far too short for my tastes.

The Rooster

DaveMcG wrote:

No, hoping they won't be needed

If it happens to leak that Bertie Ahern kills puppies, then it could be a landslide.........

Well you've a better chance of getting what you want than I have of getting what I want (FG and PDs forming a coalition with Labour and possibly Greens) !

Dave!

nesf wrote:

Agreed with The Rooster, you'd want to get very good odds for the Greens not being in there. I've a few on FF/Lab myself. The odds on FG/Lab/Greens are far too short for my tastes.

8/1 on FG/Lab, not bad really... I've only €20 on it

ateam

redspider wrote:

In terms of McCullagh and Lee, your point is valid in that RTE in the main is not pro-FF.

However, Miriam last night was slightly more pro-FF than FG, and today RTE calling FF the winner of the debate based on anecdotal evidence, when I think it is not in their remit nor in their charter to do so, can also be seen as being pro-FF.

This type of debate shouldn't have a 'winner', it was not a competition, and its up to the voters to decide who to vote for, NOT RTE to influence, whether intentional or not. Neither a poll on boards.ie, nor texters to Vincent Browne's show can be the baramoter of who 'won', and what is winning anyway?

If you think about it, with FF on 36% or whatever it is and FG on 28% or whatever it is, those voters who have already made up their minds will score the debate accordingly. Getting neutral analysis on this is next to impossible, if not impossible, which is why a 'winner' should not be declared by RTE. They have a public service responsibility as defined in their charter to be politically neutral. Their current reporting on that debate last night is not neutral in my opinion.

You cant go by newspapers either as many of those have a political bias one way or the other at any point in time.

Redspider

In fairness to RTE they do say Kenny put in a strong performance. The charge that Ahern won the debate is presumably being made by unbiased political commentators.

PoolDude

PoolDude wrote:

Labour won't answer that question.

I asked Brendan Howlin, who I respect as a very good politician, if the option was returning to the country or FF what would they do and who would lead the party given Rabitte's stance. Here is what he said:

You can be in no doubt from the very clear statement from Pat Rabbitte that the firm intention of the Labour Party is to replace both parts of the current government. It seems from our canvass reports and from all recent opinion polls, that objective has every prospect of success.
If the decision of the people next Thursday is to deny both blocks( FF/PD and Lab/FG ) a majority,then the other minority parties and independents will obviously come into play. I certainly could not predict the outcome of that process.
I believe all newly elected members to the 30th. Dail will share a responsibility to ensure that a stable government is formed.
Sincerely,
Brendan Howlin

I'm a little frustrated as it did not answer my question.

Oh you can be 100% certain that it did answer your question.
If the FG/LAB/Green troika don't get the numbers on one side and FF/PD/SF/IND don't have enough to elect Ahern on the other...
Then FF and Labour will negotiate and it might take a few weeks but they will bed down together.
Pat Rabbitte might either eat a bit of pie or he will step down.

There wont be another election unless a weak coalition falls in a year or so over some stupid issue or other.

Avns1s

Jackz wrote:

I agree Fg do have better than Enda Kenny; Richard Bruton, but he is the only one. Are Hayes or O' Keeffe for example minister material?

I don't agree that FG has better than Kenny as Leader. Remember that there is more to leading a party than the ability to score points in a televised debate. It takes someone who can bring people along, create unity, have discipline, be decisive, be approachable and affable and have a connection with the ordinary Joe Soap. Kenny has these in abundance. Few others in FG have these traits in sufficient quantities across all of the list above to be any use as a Leader.

On the debate, I think Bertie had greater detail and did score a few points but Kenny tried to keep positive throughout. This will be to his advantage. Bertie was dwelling on the negative aspects of FGs policy rather than offering anything positive about his own.

Bertie came across as angry, agressive, agressive and worn. He would be seen by many as being on the way out. At least Kenny showed a bit of energy and enthusiasm and appatite for the job. Bertie seems to me to be saying "let me finish out my political career in comfort"

Kenny did IMHO do enough to convince people that he has the ability to do the job.

The polls in the coming days will tell a story but I don't think the debate will make a huge difference.

Overall verdict: a few cut and bruises on both sides but all in all - a draw.

Lennoxschips

Richard Bruton got torn to bits by Brian Cowen on the radio the other day.

OPENROAD

nesf wrote:

Honestly, as someone who is fairly pro-PDs I cannot see a return of the present Government. I think it's FF/Lab vs FG/Lab/Greens and it'll just depend on whether FG or FF get the numbers at the end of the day, I think.

Just goes to show you, very little difference between the main political parties.

brianthebard

OPENROAD wrote:

Just goes to show you, very little difference between the main political parties.

Between FF and FG yes, but after that there is definitely strong differences. I don't think that anyone denies that FF and FG are very very similar, but imo its just better that they stay seperate, if they ever managed to come to a situation where they could merge then Irish politics would be fucked.

axer

jdivision wrote:

Miriam O'Callaghan was terrible. Absolutely awful. How they can justify her receiving such a large salary is beyond me. Rubbish questions and failure to control the debate. She also shouldn't have been chairing it in the first place because her brother's running for FF and she seemed to give Bertie a very easy ride. Enda was poor I thought.

I doubt you could get anyone to run it better. I don't think she seemed biased.

nesf

brianthebard wrote:

Between FF and FG yes, but after that there is definitely strong differences.

FF and FG are the main parties. Everybody else is just a potential coalition partner.

redspider

ateam wrote:

In fairness to RTE they do say Kenny put in a strong performance. The charge that Ahern won the debate is presumably being made by unbiased political commentators.

True, RTE were not overly biased' as I spotted in their TV broadcasts on Six-One and the Nine News that they and Charlie Bird used very neutral language and reported on the debate very neutrally, so plaudits for that. But they are not neutral all the time, and therein lies an RTE problem.

Saying Kenny put in a strong performance whilst saying that Ahern won though is not neutral. Its a bit like saying that Man Utd played strong against Chelsea over the weekend, but they still lost and Chelsea won.

RTE should (by their charter) keep out of summarizing, unless its based on a scientifically reviewed study, which any review of the televised debate clearly wasnt. They should just have reported something like:
"Anecdotally, many people are saying that Ahern performed better in the debate than Kenny, but both parties were very happy with their leaders performance and many people were as happy with Kenny's performance as they were with Ahern's. The public will decide as a whole on election day who they are happier with, or indeed they will chose the leaders of other parties or other candidates in their area".

This is not a presidential election and RTE should have drummed that point home. You could even say that holding an FF/FG leaders-only debate in the first place is not completely partisan as it favours those two parties, especially in the way that it was portrayed as 'the next taoiseach' debate. Surely that is leading the people in a certain direction.

RTE break their charter on a regular basis .... fact. We never hear of any arrests somehow .... strange that! ;-) Should I make a call to the Minister for Justice? hmmmmm. Politics and RTE is too incestual if you ask me.

Redspider