Evening Herald/Milward Brown IMS Dublin Poll 17/05/07

Jonny Arson

FF - 29%
FG - 22%
Lab - 15%
SF - 11%
GP - 8%
PD - 3%
Ind - 12%

FF were on 37% and PDs on 7% in a similar poll at the 2002 election.

Last weekends Red C regional poll had FF, FG, Lab and the PDs on the exact same figures in Dublin so the government looks like they're in for a Dublin meltdown.

Voipjunkie

What were FG in opinion polls in Dublin before the last election and what percentage did they get

Jonny Arson

Voipjunkie wrote:

What were FG in opinion polls in Dublin before the last election and what percentage did they get

I dont have the exact figure but I think they were on about 17%

Voipjunkie

Well not the kind of meltdown that FG suffered last time out but they could lose between 5 and 7 seats in Dublin

gurramok

FF with its leader who calls himself a socialist on 250,000 a year salary have lost the confidence of the working class in Dublin due to pandering to PD economic/health/justice policies for the upper classes over the last 5 years.

Most of that vote has gone to GP/SF/Lab/SP/Ind with a little to FG in my view.

FF/PD/FG are middle/upper class exclusively oriented parties now, its little wonder that FG themsleves were a disaster at the last election losing votes to PD/FF, now its FF's turn in Dublin.

PD voters are migrating back to FG hence the gain for FG.

And above all GP appeal to all classes!

gurramok

gurramok wrote:

And above all GP appeal to all classes!

Except any class outside Dublin or Cork city...

LostinBlanch

Tell that to Mary White in Carlow. She looks odds on to get a seat there.

Gael

LostinBlanch wrote:

Tell that to Mary White in Carlow. She looks odds on to get a seat there.

And Deidre de Búrca in Wicklow and Niall Ó Brolcháin in Galway and Mary Dearey in Louth and on a really good day, Brian Meaney in Clare. This whole "Everyone outside Dublin hates the Greens" line is getting very old and hackneyed lads.

Carlow...Wicklow...Louth... Would they be in the Dublin commuter belt? At least that's what I'm told whenever people give out about FF and transport policy.

And isn't O'Brolchain based in Galway...city...

The Greens have no impact on places like Kerry South, rural Cork, Mayo etc. I would be interested if they were tipped for a seat in Clare, didn't know that.

LuckyLloyd

Deleted User wrote:

The Greens have no impact on places like Kerry South, rural Cork, Mayo etc. I would be interested if they were tipped for a seat in Clare, didn't know that.

So what. They appeal in the largest urban population centres in the country. That will do just fine.

LuckyLloyd

LuckyLloyd wrote:

So what. They appeal in the largest urban population centres in the country.

Your reaction is exacty what I was accusing them of.

They have little to say to farmers. Apart from telling them that tourists can walk across their lands.

Jonny Arson

Voipjunkie wrote:

Well not the kind of meltdown that FG suffered last time out but they could lose between 5 and 7 seats in Dublin

With Fianna Fáil going down 37% to 29% and Fine Gael rising from 15% (not the 17% I wrongly said earlier) to 22% that should see FF losing 7 seats in the capital and Fine Gael gaining 7 seats. On a bad day for FF it could be as much as 9 seats lost with 9 seats going FG's way.

Voipjunkie

Jonny Arson wrote:

With Fianna Fáil going down 37% to 29% and Fine Gael rising from 15% (not the 17% I wrongly said earlier) to 22% that should see FF losing 7 seats in the capital and Fine Gael gaining 7 seats. On a bad day for FF it could be as much as 9 seats lost with 9 seats going FG's way.

If FG got 22% in each constituency but that is unlikely
so FF are likely to lose a seat in NE and NW and maybe NC but FG are only in with a shout in one of those Dublin NE and they would have to get the 22% which is higher than they have had there in over 20 years but Sweeney could pip O'Toole if FG have a good day

In dublin NC they only have one candidate so if FF drop a seat there it will be to an Independent or Labour

In Dublin NW FG are unlikley to pick up a seat with SF more likely to gain if FF drop one.

FF might drop 5 to 7 seats but FG will not pick them all up

Colonel Sanders

what about Dublin SE? Lucinda Creighton is polling very well but (according to the bookies) it'll be at the expense of ruairi quinn if she gains a seat and not FF. What chance FF dropping their only seat here, not likely surely?

Gael

Deleted User wrote:

Carlow...Wicklow...Louth... Would they be in the Dublin commuter belt?

Pretty much all of Leinster is part of the Dublin commuter belt now and large parts of it don't have any Green presence. So that's a weak argument to make.

Gael

Deleted User wrote:

They have little to say to farmers. Apart from telling them that tourists can walk across their lands.

Really? From what I remember Trevor Sargent had lots to say to the IFA Executive when he addressed them recently.

I thought this angle ended with Luckylloyd's 'so what about the country, they appeal in the cities, that's enough' comment...

Either way, study the Green vote in places like Kerry and Cork (outside the city), that'll give you an indication of what farmer's really think of proposals like the demand to have walking routes confirmed as public rights of way 'without challenge by the landowner'. I'm quoting from the Green manifesto there, not some watered down 'we will enter dialogue' stance portrayed in his IFA address.

Incidentally, I note they had a tent at the ploughing championships. I thought tents at events were bad news for political parties. They in the grip of the farmers?

DJDC

The Greens have no impact on places like Kerry South, rural Cork, Mayo etc. I would be interested if they were tipped for a seat in Clare, didn't know that.

They probally never will.These rural ignoramuses despise anything that might stop them burning their rubbish out the back,buidling a house for the nephew beside the local lake,quad biking over the local nature reserve etc.These people would vote for the local FF candidate no matter what.If i was the greens I wouldnt even bother running candidates in rural backwaters.Stick to areas where they have a chance.

DJDC

DJDC wrote:

These rural ignoramuses despise anything that might stop them burning their rubbish out the back,buidling a house for the nephew beside the local lake,quad biking over the local nature reserve etc.These people would vote for the local FF candidate no matter what.

Funny that.

FF? I could have sworn that Bertie Ahern was from the heart of Dublin, and Enda Kenny from way out west in Mayo.

But then again, I'm just a rural ignoramus. Sure what would I know. You clearly know it all. We all have quad bikes, we love fire, and we stay with our nephews by the lake.. You got us nailed down. :rolleyes:

Gael

Deleted User wrote:

I thought this angle ended with Luckylloyd's 'so what about the country, they appeal in the cities, that's enough' comment...

Either way, study the Green vote in places like Kerry and Cork (outside the city), that'll give you an indication of what farmer's really think of proposals like the demand to have walking routes confirmed as public rights of way 'without challenge by the landowner'. I'm quoting from the Green manifesto there

What page of the manifesto is that on?

Gael

DJDC wrote:

They probally never will.These rural ignoramuses despise anything that might stop them burning their rubbish out the back,buidling a house for the nephew beside the local lake,quad biking over the local nature reserve etc.These people would vote for the local FF candidate no matter what.If i was the greens I wouldnt even bother running candidates in rural backwaters.Stick to areas where they have a chance.

That's out of order. I'm both a proud Green and proud rural resident. I have no doubt people will turn to the Greens more, both rural and urban as time passes. For all the smugness of some urban people, there was a time not so very long ago when the Greens did equally bad in Dublin, as they do in some rural areas now. But once the price of oil rockets (and it will rocket), the rest will change their mind and realise the Greens were the only ones with their eye on the ball in the end.

Gael

Gael wrote:

What page of the manifesto is that on?

Dunno, got it online.

Try this.

http://www.greenparty.ie/en/election_07/manifesto/1_a_vibrant_green_economy

And scroll down to 'tourism'.

Incidentally, I appreciate you don't nevessarily share the same views as Luckylloyd and DJDC and their contempt for rural Ireland. You will appreciate why some of the rhetoric spouted (not by you) annoys us so much...

Gael

Deleted User wrote:

Dunno, got it online.

Try this.

http://www.greenparty.ie/en/election_07/manifesto/1_a_vibrant_green_economy

And scroll down to 'tourism'.

Incidentally, I appreciate you don't nevessarily share the same views as Luckylloyd and DJDC and their contempt for rural Ireland. You will appreciate why some of the rhetoric spouted (not by you) annoys us so much...

In fairness if you're going to make a direct quote to support your argument against the Greens, you should at least be able to directly source it to me, or you just look like you're waffling.

Believe me David, I've grown up my entire life in the country and I'm well used to smug city people looking down on me for that. But I also know that most city people still vote FF/FG and those voters are just as likely to have an anti-rural bias. ( I meet them all the time and I can assure you, most of them are not Green voters).

Rural Ireland and farming is in dire-straits. Over 1,000 leave the land every year. Do you know how many that adds up to over the decades of FF government? You want someone to blame for that, fine. But don't try to blame it on a party that has never been in government in this country before. Can you honestly say the rural/farming economy is healthy under the current FF/PD government? Do you see many young people feeling they have opportunities to keep them on the land under FF/PD?

LuckyLloyd

What the hell is going on here? I felt my implied point was pretty clear: not every party in this election needs to have a complete country wide attraction and appeal. That is not a requirement or pre - requisite to campaign on a particular platform.

The Greens are not popular - but they do have policies that deal with rural Ireland. They have a national outlook - but have yet to win full national support. Time may fix that. It may not.

Gael

Gael wrote:

In fairness if you're going to make a direct quote to support your argument against the Greens, you should at least be able to directly source it to me

Huh?

Are you being serious?

I linked you to the site and told you to scroll down to the section on tourism. If you did you will nota that section contains about 5 short points and its one of them, I thought things like 'its on the fifth line, starting with the fourth word in from the left' were a bit unnecessary.

Gael

Deleted User wrote:

Huh?

Are you being serious?

I linked you to the site and told you to scroll down to the section on tourism. If you did you will nota that section contains about 5 short points and its one of them, I thought things like 'its on the fifth line, starting with the fourth word in from the left' were a bit unnecessary.

Excuse me. My mistake. Thanks for the link.