Why aren't FG courting The PDs as potential coalition partners?

Colonel Sanders

Seems strange to me that FG will call on the greens to make up numbers if FG/LAbour does not reach the magic number of TDs to form a government.

I was thinking last night would the PDs not be a more suitable partner (from FGs point of view) in the hypothetical situation where the numbers stacked up, i.e. if FG/Labour couldn't form a government but FG/Labour/PDs could?

Senator

In a normal Left/Right political arena that would be so; indeed there would be no FF and FG as they'd both be in the one party.

But Ireland doesn't work on a Left/Right basis (despite McDowell's flagpole stunt). It works on ancient animosities.

28064212

There's no way Labour would go in with the PDs. Besides, the PDs are unlikely to have enough seats to make that viable, it would be more likely to see a couple of Independents side with FG/Labour/Green than anything else

Colonel Sanders

Senator wrote:

But Ireland doesn't work on a Left/Right basis (despite McDowell's flagpole stunt). It works on ancient animosities.

and the fact the PDs evolved from ex FF members rules out FG/PD coalition?

Glenbhoy

Might it be because they will have three seats max after this election, thus it's probably easier (and obviously more palatable with fg/lab voters) to get 3 independents onside.
If you don't believe me about the 3 seats, well, that's what the betting currently is, and tbh, there's a chance they'll get none, but they should pick up at least one.
Sexton - gone
O'Malley F - gone
O'Malley T - 60/40 against
O'Donnell - 75/25 against
Grealish - 60/40 against
Parlon - 70/30 against
Harney - 70/30 for
McDowell 70/30 for

The Rooster

FG and the PDs would be an excellent fit. The problem is Labour would have to be in the middle and the leadership of Lab and PD don't get on to well!!

If FG and PD opened this up as a possiblity, I think both parties would get a lot of votes from "middle Ireland" that might otherwise go to FF.

A lot of people want FF out, and wouldnt mind at all seeing FG in, but are scared of the prospect of Labour and the Greens being too left wing. A FG-Lab-PD would answer a lot of questions.

Having said that if the Greens get far more seats than the PDs, as is predicted, then that'll be the likely govt. And we'll all have to live with the consequences of having a pseudo commie lefty torn between his marxist tendencies and continuation of a capitalist booming regime as Minister for Finance and tanaiste.

Colonel Sanders

The Rooster wrote:

If FG and PD opened this up as a possiblity, I think both parties would get a lot of votes from "middle Ireland" that might otherwise go to FF.

A lot of people want FF out, and wouldnt mind at all seeing FG in, but are scared of the prospect of Labour and the Greens being too left wing. A FG-Lab-PD would answer a lot of questions.

this was exctly my train of thought. I can accept one left wing party in a coalition but 2 who will have approx 20 seats between them is a litttle daunting to a committed capatilist like me

The_Minister

People seem to be forgetting, the Greens are wavering noow, if the election had been a fortnight ago they would be grand, but now they won't make nearly as many gains.

Glenbhoy wrote:

Might it be because they will have three seats max after this election

We're going to have to disagree on this. The PDs are polling at the same level as last election.

brianthebard

Colonel Sanders wrote:

and the fact the PDs evolved from ex FF members rules out FG/PD coalition?

No the fact that they wouldn't have enough seats between them rules it out. There's no way those sums could add up.

Colonel Sanders

The_Minister wrote:

We're going to have to disagree on this. The PDs are polling at the same level as last election.

seeing as you seem to know a fair bit about the PDs what do those inside the party feel is their likely number of seats after this election? are there any 'safe' seats and on the other hand are there any that they feel are lost already?

Victor Meldrew

Colonel Sanders wrote:

I was thinking last night would the PDs not be a more suitable partner (from FGs point of view) in the hypothetical situation where the numbers stacked up, i.e. if FG/Labour couldn't form a government but FG/Labour/PDs could?

Yes, but Mc Dowell is just so disliked... and there will be so few of them in the next dail.

jmayo

I have to say I don't see Labour and Greens as really left wing.

I know the Greens may have some wackey ideas, giving impression everyone should cycle and some of them may want congestion charges even though we don't have public transport.
Actually some of their ideas do make sense and the Greens haven't done bad jobs when in government in other countries.

The worry about Labour is that they are in bed with the unions, particularly Public sector unions, but from looking at how Bertie has caved into unions for last ten years then there will not be much of difference.

I know M Harney is standing up to nurses, but did they stand up to Aer Lingus and how much did that cost the state, not to mention the whole benchmarking joke??

Most left wing party up to now would have been SF but it is noticable how they have tempered their views in order to have broader appeal.

billy the squid

The_Minister wrote:

People seem to be forgetting, the Greens are wavering noow, if the election had been a fortnight ago they would be grand, but now they won't make nearly as many gains.
We're going to have to disagree on this. The PDs are polling at the same level as last election.

With respect, where the public have the power to influence the result, I would go for the bookies prediction as people will vote in a way to get their money back. And if more people are betting that say Tim O'Malley is going to lose his seat, then more people will vote to put him out on his arse to get their winnings back.

SeanW

I actually wouln't mind having FG and the PeeDees in government.

Think about it, neither FF-PD nor FG-Lab will have the numbers to go into power alone, and if the collapse of the Greens continues they wouldn't be able to prop up either. A fourth party or independents would be needed and I would prefer not to see independents in because they usually extract concessions for their constituency over and above others. Also no big fan of Sinn Fein but I really want to see FF out because they're incompetent and stale.

[RANT]I don't dislike the PDs too much, and McDowell isn't a total muppet (he did have a good idea with Cafe Bars but the publican lobby in Fianna Fail shot it down). As an aside, bars and nightclubs that play music very loud do so to stop customers holding conversation with their friends so that they tend to buy more drink - which is really what Ireland needs - more deafness and alcohol abuse ... Continental style Cafe Bars is one of the few good things the PDs did, only they didn't cause they picked a lousy coalition partner that is known to be 10 miles up the publican's holes.
[/RANT]

I would very much like the option of a four-way coalition, FG-Lab-Green-PD to be kept open.

irish_bob

on the face of it , a FG - PD goverment would seem like a very practical choice
the thing is though the numbers just dont add up
this is because the pd,s are too small
even though they have policys which economically are almost identical to fine gael , that doesnt register with the irish public ,
of course due to the fact that the over whelming majority of irish people vote for whichever party their parents and grandparents voted for as opposed to which party is more in line with thier own political idealogy , this puts the pd,s at a disadvantage with the average voter , thier too young to have tradition and no ones mom or dad voted for the pd,s all thier life
im serious , most people in this country,s voting choice is dictated by which party thier family is affiliated with , were incredibly conservative in this way

as a result i dont see a pd - fg coaliton as ever been on the cards

athtrasna

Pure and simple, the PDs will be wiped off the face of the planet at the next election - an optimistic figure gives them 2-4 seats. No way they're an important block in the next Dail

The_Minister

athtrasna wrote:

Pure and simple, the PDs will be wiped off the face of the planet at the next election - an optimistic figure gives them 2-4 seats. No way they're an important block in the next Dail

Not going to happen. I will be very surprised if they get anywhere near that low. They were polling at the same level last time.

Voipjunkie

Perhaps because unlike the labour party FG have more sense than to rescue a rival party when they are on their knees

Victor

FG and the PDs are chasing some of the same votes. They have aligned themselves with different possible coalitions. FG would much prefer to have the floating voters and marginal seats in the hands of FG TDs, not PD TDs.

Now, after the election, anything is possible.

athtrasna

The_Minister wrote:

Not going to happen. I will be very surprised if they get anywhere near that low. They were polling at the same level last time.

You were saying??!!!

murphaph

athtrasna wrote:

You were saying??!!!

You're a bad bad person! Poor the minister must be crying into his cab sav somewhere! The PDs should have walked out on the corrupt gangsters in FF a long time ago if they were to maintain any credibility. I wouldn't be surprised if Harney returned to FF seeing as the PDs look like a spent force.