Opinion Polls

Villain

I know Rock Climber has asked to keep new thread to a minimum but I don't see a thread on opinon polls so I'm creating this, if I have missed one please merge. Perhaps we could use this thread for all polls from now until Thursday

The latest RedC poll shows:

FF 36 (+1)
FG 27 (-2)
LAB 11 (-1)
GREENS 8 (+2)
SF 10 (+3)
PD's 2(-1)
Inds 6(-2)

Which puts FF and PD's on 38%
FG and Labour on also on 38%
FG, Labour and Greens on 46%
FF and SF 46%
FF and Labour 47%

Interesting, its so so close.

patzer117

are you sure of that, or going on politics.ie speculation?

Rock Climber

bloody fascinatingly tight alright.
Please state where the poll is published also.
I think the last few polls are tomorrow sunday and monday

Villain

I going on the reports of someone who has seen the poll published, if its incorrect I will change it but I'm 99% certain the figure are correct.

Edit sorry forget to say it is published in the Sunday Business post

Roanmore

irish1 wrote:

I going on the reports of someone who has seen the poll published, if its incorrect I will change it but I'm 99% certain the figure are correct.

Edit sorry forget to say it is published in the Sunday Business post

No sign of it on SBP website, have the early editions being published already

Villain

Must have been.

bemmet

Interesting.
Must be the first time in living memory that FF are RISING in the opinion polls going into the last week of polling.
Seems as if the only alternate coalition is FG ,Lab/workers party/dem left,Green party,an independent or four !

Now is that not a lovely thought to consider sustaining our new found economic prosperity.

There is neither enough money or sellotape in the country to keep that one together!

DeepBlue

The Week in Politics had a good report on Opinon polls - it's in the first five minutes of this clip: http://dynamic.rte.ie/av/230-2247723.smil

IMO one of the most interesting points made by a poll analyst who had worked for FF was that exit polls closely polls that had been taken many months before indicating that many voters already had their minds made up in advance of the election campaign.

In the final week of the campaign and coming closer to voting there seems to have been an increase in scaremongering by some of the parties. The PD's leaflet with false claims about the Greens would be one example of this.
It will be interesting to see if this approach bears fruit in the polls over the next few days.

Jonny Arson

FF 37% (+2)
FG 25% (-1)
LAB 12% (-1)
GP 5% (=)
SF 9% (-1)
PD 3% (=)
Ind 9% (+1)

FF/PD (40%)
FG/LAB (37%)
FG/LAB/GP (42%)
FF/LAB (49%)
FF/SF (46%)

AFAIK Poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday.

All changes within margin of error +/- 3% so not an awful amount of insight and IMS has history of overestimating FF and underestimating FG.

Taking both of tomorrow's polls into consideration it is going to be ridiculously close for the Rainbow. Ideally they need another 2%-3% and FF's only option seems to be SF but both will have major problems with transfers.

At this very moment it's too close to call for the Rainbow. I think they may just miss out and may need Independents but there's a possibility FF/SF could scrape through with Independents too.

If things stay the same I'll plump for a hung dáil or Labour being forced to jump into bed with FF for a government that will do well to last 2 years.

Victor

irish1 wrote:

Which puts FF and PD's on 38%
FG and Labour on also on 38%
FG, Labour and Greens on 46%
FF and SF 46%
FF and Labour 47%

Of course one can have a high share of a poll, without that turning into seats - just look at Sinn Fein - the tend to do well in opinion polls, but get much less on the day.

Similarly, FG dropped below a magic point in 2002 where they were the default "anyone but FF" choice, a small rise this time will shove them back above that line and give them a big boost.

DMC

No polls would've been taken after the leaders debates, as its illegal within 7 days of polling day to conduct such a survey. On that basis, it would've been interesting to see if FF got a bounce, considering most commentators thought Ahern and Rabitte won them.

JonnyXXX

i get a sense that people are scared to vote for FG because of Kenny. FF have done a great job in scaremongering the people into thinking that if we dont vote FF PD, we are turning our back on economic success. Are the electorate that naive? we are a small open economy and NOTHING any governent will do in the next 5 years will impact the ecoonomy. Unless they change corporation tax and CGT. And there is no sign of that happening with any of the parties.

Jonny Arson

JonnyXXX wrote:

i get a sense that people are scared to vote for FG because of Kenny. FF have done a great job in scaremongering the people into thinking that if we dont vote FF PD, we are turning our back on economic success. Are the electorate that naive? we are a small open economy and NOTHING any governent will do in the next 5 years will impact the ecoonomy. Unless they change corporation tax and CGT. And there is no sign of that happening with any of the parties.

Yes, some of the electorate are that naive and FF/PDs know that. They're playing the ''the ecomomy will go to sh!t under FG/Lab'' because it will. That's not becuase FG/Lab will make the economy go to sh!t but because it is already going that way due to FF/PDs reckless management of it. Its nothing but a card by FF/PDs to say ''we told you so!'' and the liklihood is they'll be able to use it if they lose power next week and as a result storm their way back into power for 2012. It's a clever tactic and I'll give them credit for that. The reality in this election is during the next 5 years who will do the better job of managing the disaster that will hit us? It's quite obvious our current government wont be able to do this but will the opposition do better?

JonnyXXX

glad someone is hearing me. I just dont understand it. people say that the irish electorate as the most astute but FF and PD treat the people like dirt. just vote anyone but FF PD!

DeepBlue

JonnyXXX wrote:

i get a sense that people are scared to vote for FG because of Kenny.

According to wikipedia Kenny is "widely considered to be the best loved politician of all time."

If it's in wikipedia then it must be true .

Time Magazine

DMC wrote:

No polls would've been taken after the leaders debates, as its illegal within 7 days of polling day to conduct such a survey.

Are you absolutely certain of that?

DMC

Ibid wrote:

Are you absolutely certain of that?

I almost certain it is. It was proposed way back on 2000/1, but trying to find where in the Electoral Amendment Bill of that era is proving difficult. It might have been dropped.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2001/0704/opinionpoll.html is one source.

IFAIK its ok to publish opinion polls taken prior to 7 days before the poll, but not to conduct the survey.

I'll keep digging.

McSandwich

I think that these poll results are just what FG and Lab need to keep candidate and canvasser complacency at bay in the final run-up..

Zaphod

The legislation to ban opinion polls prior to polling day had to be dropped when it was pointed out that there was nothing to stop UK media outlets from conducting opinion polls which could be published on the day of the election.

One of the few occasions when the Seanad did something useful.
http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2001/07/15/story484901928.asp

Jonny Arson

EDIT: poster above answered the question about the ''7 day'' rule.

Red C poll was conducted on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of this week confirming this

DMC

Zaphod wrote:

The legislation to ban opinion polls prior to polling day had to be dropped when it was pointed out that there was nothing to stop UK media outlets from conducting opinion polls which could be published on the day of the election.

Ah, thanks Zaph, that's cleared it up.

Roanmore

bemmet wrote:

Interesting.
Must be the first time in living memory that FF are RISING in the opinion polls going into the last week of polling.
Seems as if the only alternate coalition is FG ,Lab/workers party/dem left,Green party,an independent or four !

Now is that not a lovely thought to consider sustaining our new found economic prosperity.

There is neither enough money or sellotape in the country to keep that one together!

Mmm, of course it's not the first time FF are rising in the polls in the last week, this happened in the last election. Back then FF are expecting the overall majority

E92

McSandwich wrote:

I think that these poll results are just what FG and Lab need to keep candidate and canvasser complacency at bay in the final run-up..

I would concurr, that last thing FG and Lab need to be with only 4 days to go is to copy what the present Government have been at since elected to office(by being complacent). Obviously we'll have to wait and see what the Irish Times poll says on Monday, but to say I'm overjoyed with these latest polls would be a lie. However the support for the alternative if you include the Greens is only down 1% on the RedC poll compared to last week. I wonder how OTT the Sindo will be tomorrow, I expect them to say how doomed Fine Gael are and how useless Enda will be as a Taoiseach and how wonderful Bertie is and all the usual sh*te that goes on in that paper. Yes the IMS poll is not that good, but I do find it hard to believe that Sinn Fein have gained 3 points in the RedC poll in only a week. Of course the IMS poll was taken after the latest chapter in the controversy about payments to Bertie Ahern, and his visit to the House of Commons, and the Red C poll showed that there was no significant impact on the voting intentions after the leaders' debates, which is kind of suprising given that Pat Rabbitte put in a very spirited performance on Wednesday night, and Enda didnt do anywhere near as bad as he was predicted to do by people here and in lots of other places, though I found the debate on Thursday to be very boring indeed(it should have only been an hour and not an hour and a half), Bertie didnt seem as passioonate as he normally does on these kinda things(he ability to passionately believe in the BS he talks about never fails to amaze me).

The other thing is that I believe that there is a mood for change and those who were thinking that their vote wont count because there will be enough people voting for the alternative will have been sharply reminded that its never over till its over.

Time Magazine

Lads, relax. These figures are not altered other than removal of undecideds. FG are always under-represented in polls and carry an extra 3% or 4% of first preferences.

is_that_so

Anything can be read into polls and will be, but at the very least it confirms what has been clear for a while; that this is going to very tight. It certainly gives the Soldiers of Destiny a boost. It also reminds the others that there is work to do to get those votes. It is also likely that turnout on the day will be a lot higher than the 62.5% we had the last time. All to play for.

is_that_so

bemmet wrote:

Interesting.
Must be the first time in living memory that FF are RISING in the opinion polls going into the last week of polling.

Well they need to rise, otherwise they are talking about serious seat losses.

Jonny Arson

FF 38% (+2)
FG 26% (-1)
Lab 11% (=)
GP 6% (-1)
SF 9% (-1)
PD 3% (-1)
Ind/Others 7% (+1)

http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/23rdMay07PollChartDeck.pdf

FF/PD 41%
FG/Lab 37%
FG/Lab/GP 43%
FF/Lab 49%
FF/GP 44%
FF/SF 47%

Bit of another spanner in the works after the ''major swing'' presented in the Irish Times poll on Monday. FF gaining slightly, FG still in their 26-28% bracket, Labour as you were, and not much change for the smaller parties. All changes within margin of errors so if you're looking at an outcome for Friday I think these results may be a close as we get.