PD's Demise Premature?

joecoote

I'm not fan of the PD's but I think reports of their demise are premature.

How many seats can they realistically expect this time? Do they have the party structures to make a comeback? What are your strenghts (voter appeal) and weaknesses? Would a more complete elucidation of its underlying philosophy help the cause? A setback isn't necessarily a bad thing. It's a good time for reflection. Well, any PD'ers tell us their thinking.
(P.S. Of course, they may surprise us all on Thrusday). (P.P.S. Others please don't use question for childish party bashing.)

ateam

I think McDowell and Harney are certainties to get seats. Parlon and Liz O'Donnell are in with a chance. The other four are in real danger. Difficult to judge PD party because although they may be unpopular nationally in opinion polls, they attract transfers from Fianna Fail voters and put forward strong local candidates.

flogen

I think realistically they should expect no more than 4 seats.

While the national opinion polls aren't really fair on a small party like the PDs, they do show a halving of their 1st pref percentage on last year, and a lot of their seats (Parlon's included) were taken from a collapsed FG in 2002 - a trend which will be reversed in many areas although probably not completely.

If they lose Parlon it'll be a bit of a blow - he's party president of course. RTÉ have said O'Donnell has the fight of her political life too, and that would be a major blow as she's quite a prominent party member. McDowell has never managed to get re-elected but he's never held a ministerial post before 2002, nor has he been a party leader, so I expect him to get in (but perhaps with more of a fight).

As ateam says it's not exactly a bad thing for the party as a whole - they have failed to get their ideology across and don't seem to have the structures of other parties, even small ones like them. It'll be a dig to the ego of McDowell to see his party halve in representation and almost certainly hit the backbenches just months after he took the mantle, though.

Raskolnikov

joecoote wrote:

How many seats can they realistically expect this time?

Two should be safe, Harney and McDowell. Two are almost certainly gone, F. O' Malley and Sexton. The other four are battlegrounds, I think the PD's will do well to take two out of the four.

So the PD's will be doing well to take four seats this election.

joecoote wrote:

Do they have the party structures to make a comeback?

Quite frankly, the answer is no.

joecoote wrote:

What are your strenghts (voter appeal) and weaknesses?

Harney and McDowell are both highly capable politicians. But because McDowell can't keep his mouth shut; he's generated a lot of anti-PD sentiment in the general public. Health is a poisoned chalice. Anyone who takes that portfolio seems to take a kicking.

joecoote wrote:

Would a more complete elucidation of its underlying philosophy help the cause?

Yes.

Pherekydes

That turkey is cooked. Stick a fork in it. The Minister for Health will lose her seat.

The_Minister

The PDs always, always surprise at elections. They will loose some, and gain others. I'd be very surprised if it gets as low as four.
Thing is, when it comes to crunch time, enough people tend to realise that there is only one party, in all of Ireland, that will say things like "profit is not a dirty word" and "some inequality is nessacery", and we need at least one party that will say this.

ArthurDent

On the ground in D Mid West feeling is Ms Harey will be lucky to scrape in on the 4th seat. Ist seat will go to Curran, second to Gogarty and a serious battle between Harney, Tuffy, Keating and Spain for the last two. She won't poll v well in Lucan and may be left depending on transfers from Spain and Keating .

BillFarkinAllen

The_Minister wrote:

The PDs always, always surprise at elections. They will loose some, and gain others. I'd be very surprised if it gets as low as four.
Thing is, when it comes to crunch time, enough people tend to realise that there is only one party, in all of Ireland, that will say things like "profit is not a dirty word" and "some inequality is nessacery", and we need at least one party that will say this.

Hi Minister
I agree tbh. Written off at the last election too they were:rolleyes: If anything I reckon Sinn Fein may have the most disappointing vote next to the Greens. The PD's will lose seats but its a question of how many. It could be just 1 or it could be even 4 but they will not lose all their seats and Mary Harney has no chance of losing her seat.

flogen

The_Minister wrote:

The PDs always, always surprise at elections. They will loose some, and gain others. I'd be very surprised if it gets as low as four.
Thing is, when it comes to crunch time, enough people tend to realise that there is only one party, in all of Ireland, that will say things like "profit is not a dirty word" and "some inequality is nessacery", and we need at least one party that will say this.

Yes, we need more cliché's from our political parties.

Seriously though, I think the PDs problem this time around is that they're core ideals (low taxes, economic liberalism etc.) have been adopted by all parties bar Sinn Fein (and even they say they won't raise taxes).

The fact is that upon their inception their ideas were unique enough, but after 10 years of economic success it would idiotic for FF, FG, Lab etc. to suggest that they've failed - which is why everyone is offering tax cuts and stamp duty reform etc.

At this point the PDs are offering almost nothing new by comparison and this is coupled with a FG fight-back and a disillusionment amongst some voters over the whole "watchdog" thing.

You're right, though, the PDs have always been written off and have always performed better than expected by pundits (McDowell was supposed to be a dead duck in Dublin South Central in 2002 and he topped the poll). That said I don't see them making any gains and I see a few losses.

The only way that won't happen is if huge population changes have severely skewed the electorate in various constituencies - which isn't impossible to imagine when you look at Dublin North, a normally left-of-centre constituency, which has seen a 50% increase in population since 2002. Who's to say that a lot of them aren't right-wing voters?

DeepBlue

Indeed the PDs have been written off in the past and any journalist would be loathe to repeat the mistake.

There are a couple of other factors that might make an impact this time around.
They've replaced Harney who had consistently high approval ratings and would have widespread appeal with McDowell who currently has the lowest approval rating and is very much a "love him or loathe him" personality.
Also one of their main planks was their emphasis on ethics in public life. This would appear to have been ditched as a core value and may also cost them votes.

Harney would be a huge loss if she wasn't returned. McDowell adds colour but it's difficult to point to any of his real achievements and one suspects he's better at bluster and sound bite than actual delivery.

irish_bob

i am constantly bemused at why the pd,s are so unpopular
the goverment goes through a rough patch but fianna fail get a pass yet the pd,s are the antichrists
thier policys are more in tune with most irish people than all the other small partys yet we the irish people do not reward them for it
this is because thier a very young party and because most irish people vote for what ever party their parents and grandparents voted for , the pd,s having no tradition are at a disadvantage no matter how much impact thier core policys have had on transforming this economy , it dont register with the people , young people who are pulling in a decent wage be it working in construction or whatever for whoom the health service is not a pressing issue , they would not be caught dead admitting they voted pd yet would openly admit to saying they intend voting sinn fein even though they would only take a big chunk out of thier pay check
its not trendy to vote pd and as a result young affluent single people who,s natural home should be the pd,s as thier more seucular than FF or FG instead would vote SINN FEIN



as regards thier chances in the forth coming election , i fear they would be doing well to come back with 4 seats
tom parlon who has been a major disapointment and is not a natural pd anyway is a gonner ,
this may surprise you but seeing that the pd,s are not going to be part of the next goverment , then i would like to see micheal mc dowell loose his seat
if micheal mc dowell were to make every irish person living a millionaire and solve the israeli - palestinian crisis aswell as every other global problem
irish people would still not like him , he tells it like it is and we hate that
hes also too intelectual and we hate that too , we much perfer someone like bertie who while excellent on the north has not done a whole lot down here
he is loathe to alienate even a single group and as a result wont take on the unions or the chronically innefficent public service

so i would like to see mc dowell bite the dust , that way the party may be seen in a whole new light and given a fair shake

AlanOB

if micheal mc dowell were to make every irish person living a millionaire and solve the israeli - palestinian crisis aswell as every other global problem
irish people would still not like him , he tells it like it is and we hate that
hes also too intelectual and we hate that too

You may be barely literate but you've hit the nail on the head there.

People can't stand the realism of McDowell. He makes a perfectly reasonable statement like "A certain amount of inequality is inevitable in any society", which to anyone with a brain is patently obvious, and he's jumped on and called every name under the sun. And not just by misguided left-wing idealogues either, by the media too.

I think the media have used his rough, honest and realistic manner and exploited it to create a hate figure for the great unwashed to rail against. And at that they have been very successful.

And it's a terrible pity.

cm2000

i heard mcdoweel say today that the pd's are going to get 10 seats! maybe the downfall will recover a bit but that's plain dillusional

AlanOB

Yeah I laughed at that too CM. I suppose he has to say that to give the air of positivity. Deep down I'm sure he knows what I and other supporters do - that we'll be lucky to hold 3.

cm2000

if only liz o donnell did a better job on her poster-you so would- then there would be a fourth??? oh well

Agent J

The realsim of McDowell? The honesty?

More like the Hypocracy.

A Minister for justice who gives out the media talking to the gardai but when its suits his purpose he is happy to leak things that he has access to because of his position and hides behind "Dail Privilige".

Lets not forget his attitude when pressed for evidence on leaks with the media talking to the gardai.
"I know what i know".

Or how about using a local issue like the incinerator to decide the formation of a national government?
Wheres the extra 2,000 Gardai?
What about the debacle over the rapists being released?

Or how about the contraband that he orders a raid a few weeks before the election(Only i might ad as a reaction to liveline)?

I have never heard him step up to the plate and say "My bad, it happened under my watch and i am responable"

That would be being honest.

cm2000

Agent J wrote:

The realsim of McDowell? The honesty?

More like the Hypocracy.

A Minister for justice who gives out the media talking to the gardai but when its suits his purpose he is happy to leak things that he has access to because of his position and hides behind "Dail Privilige".

Lets not forget his attitude when pressed for evidence on leaks with the media talking to the gardai.
"I know what i know".

Or how about using a local issue like the incinerator to decide the formation of a national government?
Wheres the extra 2,000 Gardai?
What about the debacle over the rapists being released?

Or how about the contraband that he orders a raid a few weeks before the election(Only i might ad as a reaction to liveline)?

I have never heard him step up to the plate and say "My bad, it happened under my watch and i am responable"

That would be being honest.

for the last time with the rapists. the legislative branch of the govt. ie the oirechtas, cannot by the constitution involve itsself in judicial trials. it was the courts fault not the government

AlanOB

Haven't seen the poster but I'll take your word for it!

You never know about Liz though. With support for FG and to a greater extent Labour apparently falling she might get enough first preferences to beat out Shatter and Alex White for the final seat. Transfers could kill her though. Shatter will get lots from Olivia Mitchell.

cm2000

AlanOB wrote:

Haven't seen the poster but I'll take your word for it!

You never know about Liz though. With support for FG and to a greater extent Labour apparently falling she might get enough first preferences to beat out Shatter and Alex White for the final seat. Transfers could kill her though. Shatter will get lots from Olivia Mitchell.

yeah im not too farmiliar with the constituency but i hope she gets in and not just for eye candy, shes a dam good politician.

BostonB

I don't get why people would vote for any of them tbh. They haven't delivered IMO. End of. We have (or haven't as the case maybe) Health, Crime, decentralisation (which has been forgotten).

ateam

Not an expert on PD candidates, but can anyone suggest where the PDs are in with a chance of making a gain?

Agent J

cm2000 wrote:

for the last time with the rapists. the legislative branch of the govt. ie the oirechtas, cannot by the constitution involve itsself in judicial trials. it was the courts fault not the government

Yeah except the Dept of Justice was warned back in 2002 that the current legisalation could be challenged and should be changed.

Who was minister back in 2002?(After the election that is...)

What about the rest of it?

cm2000

well the 2000 gardai are a couple of months late-not exactly a huge concern for me- and in keeping with how the country runs(financial year). as for the contraband mobiles and stuff are lifted every week from jails but the old jails make it easy for that sort of thing to get in which is why the govt wanted new modern prisons-which insidently opposition parties opposed.

Agent J

Please dont give me that claptrap of saying the opposition parties stopped new prisions being built.
FF and PDs have a majority therefore they can pretty much do what they like without interferance.

How many have been shut down compared to how many have been open during the life of this government?

Off the top of my head i think its 2 or 3 shut down and none opened.

Is there even buidling work taking place on them?( I honestly dont know, last i heard they were still having planning issues)

And if there are raids every week then why was all this extra stuff found in the last one spefically as reaction to the liveline incident?

See if was only 2,000 extra gardai that were a few months late then there wouldnt be so much and issue with it. I think we are supposed to have a metro to the airport by now as well....
Forgive my Cysicsm(sp?) but i remember after the 2002 election only too well. Cuts left right and centre. So those gardai may never materilise. Also is the 2000 inclusive of the "reserve" or not?

Since you are trying to defend McDowell then please defend him leaking classified documents to the media while at the same time giving out about the gardai talking to the media? Is it ok for Minister for justice to do that?

cm2000

Agent J wrote:

Forgive my Cysicsm(sp?) but i remember after the 2002 election only too well. Cuts left right and centre. So those gardai may never materilise. Also is the 2000 inclusive of the "reserve" or not?
?

i believe given the economic climate at the time the cutbacks were prudent and neccesary and facilitated a recovery

cm2000

Agent J wrote:

Please dont give me that claptrap of saying the opposition parties stopped new prisions being built.
FF and PDs have a majority therefore they can pretty much do what they like without interferance.

How many have been shut down compared to how many have been open during the life of this government?

Off the top of my head i think its 2 or 3 shut down and none opened.

Since you are trying to defend McDowell then please defend him leaking classified documents to the media while at the same time giving out about the gardai talking to the media? Is it ok for Minister for justice to do that?

prison places have increased. this is an extract from a mcdowell speach on the 3rd of may -before liveline-. this is also the prison which the opposition tries to oppose.
Thornton Hall Prison PPP Project
"The case for closing Mountjoy Prison has been well documented and I don't propose to go over those issues again. As you know the Prison Service has purchased land at Thornton, north County Dublin as the site for the proposed new prison complex to replace the outdated facilities at Mountjoy Prison.

The new campus at Thornton will have a total capacity of approximately 1,400 spaces including an assessment centre, high, medium and lower security facilities as well as step down facilities. The campus design is regime orientated and will allow for the development of progressive rehabilitative programmes, the introduction of enhanced educational and work training facilities and the introduction of single person cells with in cell sanitation to end the inhumane practice of slopping out. In addition, the new prison complex will also be constructed with an extensive cordon sanitaire to prevent drugs and other items being thrown over the wall."

Agent J

"i can confirm that no significant project over runs or cutbacks are planned. Secretly or other wise"-

Charlie McCreevy May 11th 2002.

Less than a month later a Memo came from the Department of Finance with the 1st wave of cutbacks. Either we were lied to or it was incompetence. Neither is acceptable.

Before you try and distance it from the PD's there we part of the same government so they get the same blame or credit.

Agent J

cm2000 wrote:

prison places have increased.

Please back that up with evidence.

I dont intend to be smart here but there have been prisions closed and none opened right?

Have there been building work on prisions to extend capcity?
Were we below capcity already?
Do we have less people going to jail?

If none of the above are true then i simple do not see how logically we have more spaces unless we are overcrowding them.

As for thorthon hall. After 5 years in office they have only purchased land?
If thats the case how long will we be waiting for it to be built?

Blaster99

One of the main achievements of the Dept of Justice was the sorting out of the endless stream of illegal immigrants who entered Ireland from France and the assorted chaos that caused. That has now stopped.

Another great PD achievement was the liberal work visa rules introduced by Dept of Enterprise when Harney was in charge. A lot of very smart people from outside of the EU emigrated to Ireland and has done this country a lot of good. Ireland had the most liberal immigration rules in the world for a while. With the extended EU this was no longer needed but it did the trick when it was necessary.

I think Harney could do some good in Dept of Health as well, given more time. That whole area is so fundamentally broken that it's just not about throwing more money and hospital beds at it (as per the opposition), it needs serious fixing.

The_Minister

Agent J wrote:

Yeah except the Dept of Justice was warned back in 2002 that the current legisalation could be challenged and should be changed.

It never said that the legislation might be unconstitutional, it said that it might be unfair. Big difference.

Blaster99

And by the way, if you ever wanted a reason to not vote for Labour it is their assertion that if the economy goes pearshaped then they will prioritise health. Yeah, that's going to get the wheels going again, pumping more money into that unproductive black hole of uselessness.