PD's Demise Premature?

Agent J

Blaster99 wrote:

One of the main achievements of the Dept of Justice was the sorting out of the endless stream of illegal immigrants who entered Ireland from France and the assorted chaos that caused. That has now stopped.

Point accepted. Personally i dont agree with the citizenship referendum as the way to do it but thats a debate for another day

Blaster99 wrote:

Another great PD achievement was the liberal work visa rules introduced by Dept of Enterprise when Harney was in charge.

You should go check out the rules now. They may possibly be the strictest now. A friend of mine who has been here since 4th year of school has to leave the country at the end of may when they finish college because they wont be able to get a visa. In short you can have 6 monthts to stay and
look for work but cant work a menial job to pay the bills in the meantime while you find something that will pay 30-35k basic. Those are the current rules and there is very long list of jobs they wont give Visas for...

Blaster99 wrote:

I think Harney could do some good in Dept of Health as well, given more time. That whole area is so fundamentally broken that it's just not about throwing more money and hospital beds at it (as per the opposition), it needs serious fixing.

Shes had 2 and half years i believe. Are there still people queing for hours in A&E?
Also i believe the current government are offering a certain number of beds as well under that "Co location" plan which i dont recall seeing on any plan for government back in '02.

I commend Harney for wanting to try and take on health. I just believe treating it like a business will not work and so far is doing a lot of damage. I mean trying to sign contract before the election is just ridiculus.

Agent J

The_Minister wrote:

It never said that the legislation might be unconstitutional, it said that it might be unfair. Big difference.

So how many years should it take for the department of justice to deal with legislation that "might be unfair"?

Because they had 4.

Agent J

Blaster99 wrote:

And by the way, if you ever wanted a reason to not vote for Labour it is their assertion that if the economy goes pearshaped then they will prioritise health. Yeah, that's going to get the wheels going again, pumping more money into that unproductive black hole of uselessness.

See thats a big problem i have with how people vote.
They vote for the party and not the person.

Primary concern for someone should be the local TD and who they are and what they do. Secondary should be the parties policies. Im not saying forget about the party entirely but it shouldnt in my opinion be above the actual person you are electing.

Blaster99

Agent J wrote:

Shes had 2 and half years i believe. Are there still people queing for hours in A&E?
Also i believe the current government are offering a certain number of beds as well under that "Co location" plan which i dont recall seeing on any plan for government back in '02.

I commend Harney for wanting to try and take on health. I just believe treating it like a business will not work and so far is doing a lot of damage. I mean trying to sign contract before the election is just ridiculus.

I don't really know enough about it to comment on the co-location plan. I have no issue with it because it's really just fixing an existing co-location situation. I have no problem with private hospitals. In fact, the ideal situation from my point of view would be to privatise the whole lot and give everyone a basic health insurance policy. The latter was actually Labour policy before the last election, if I recall. It's very difficult for politicians to run anything efficiently, because efficiency doesn't appear to be politically acceptable.

I believe the A&E situation has improved, perhaps partly because the charges went up to get people to go to GP's instead. It's obviously not great as evidenced by corridors full of trolleys. I just don't hear anything from the opposition that spells out how they're planning to fix it, other than throwing more of my money at it.

I guess I was referring to her taking on the consultants, who appear to be a major stumbling block to progress. I've seen the inside of an Irish hospital a couple of times and it's flipping impossible to get out of them. I don't know if it's because my health insurer is paying so it's good money for them or what. This is one of the areas where Irish hospitals underperform internationally in a major way.

Knee-Vee

Why has it taken 5 years to buy the site for the new prison? Not to mention all the hassle with the locals objections. Nothing has even been built on the site yet, after 5 years. That doesn't seem like an increase in prison places to me.

Agent J

Im consious of going way of topic on the co loaction thing so i'll keep it brief.

It wasnt on any plan for government back in 2002.

Ok you say you dont know enough to comment. Then use logic and think about it like this.

Premise.
30% of beds in public hospitals are taken up by private health insurance. We let them build there own place on the same site as existing hospitals then we gain those beds back.

With 2 hospitals seems to be inefficient though. You'll need 2 sets of everything as well as staffing levels... i mean hows it supposed to work when we are short on nurses now anyway?

Any why try to shove it through before the election? Should this kind of thing really be rushed?

Now as for the A&E charges. Should people really be worrying about paying for something if they think its enough to go to A&E in the 1st place? And tell me how does one "Shop around" if the charges are too much?

Of course people go to A&E when they really should just go to the GP but is punishing them by charging people and therefor putting people off going really the best way to solve it?

Anyway this way of the topic i admit.

Pherekydes

Agent J wrote:

See thats a big problem i have with how people vote.
They vote for the party and not the person.

Primary concern for someone should be the local TD and who they are and what they do. Secondary should be the parties policies. Im not saying forget about the party entirely but it shouldnt in my opinion be above the actual person you are electing.

You've got it the wrong way around!

You're electing a government to run the country.

The local elections are for the local representatives.

gandalf

To be honest I think this is far different from last time. The PD's last time were getting into government as the watchdog to make sure that FF didn't steal the family silver and proper ethics were adhered to.

Its quite obvious that they did not do this they went from Rottweilers to Poodles to Pekingese ie Watchdog all the way to Berties Lapdog. People won't make the same mistake twice.

And as for the two portfolios they hold coming to the election the perception is that they are in worse condition than they were before they took over with any actual action in the Health Service only happening after a scandel eg MRSA.

Agent J

Slow coach wrote:

You've got it the wrong way around!

You're electing a government to run the country.

The local elections are for the local representatives.

No you are not.

You are electing a representive for your area to the Dail.
The Dail then elect the governemnt.

You are electing a person not a party. Too many people make that mistake imho.

nesf

ateam wrote:

Not an expert on PD candidates, but can anyone suggest where the PDs are in with a chance of making a gain?

Well, they've a candidate running in Cork South Central but while I've heard of a fair amount of people my age talking about giving him a first preference most people agree that there isn't a big enough core PD vote (or even a big enough transfer vote) for him to get through. I'd be very surprised if he gets in. The fight for the fifth seat is going to be bloody and I can't see him sneaking in past potential FF and FG rivals.

Not that that helps but he's the only candidate running in a constituency that I've any idea about.

joecoote

Wow, some big tangents on the thread. Thanks for those PD's who answered the questions. I have more, but will wait till after election to ask. Seems general opinion that PD's are looking at average 3 seats. Looking at various constituencies, they have'll at least 2 up to 5/6. One interesting thing I did find on another thread were references to Ayn Rand as an underlying philosophy. Is this in anyway correct?

The_Minister

joecoote wrote:

Wow, some big tangents on the thread. Thanks for those PD's who answered the questions. I have more, but will wait till after election to ask. Seems general opinion that PD's are looking at average 3 seats. Looking at various constituencies, they have'll at least 2 up to 5/6.

They will have more than three for certain. They aren't nearly as poorly off as pundits like to say.

Stargal

The_Minister wrote:

They will have more than three for certain. They aren't nearly as poorly off as pundits like to say.

At 3-4% in the polls and with a high number of sitting TD's unlikely to keep their seats, I think it's more than fair to suggest that the PD's will have 3 seats or less after the election.

In 2002 when they were polling similar numbers and still managed to get 8 seats, they were the coalition partners of an unbeatable FF (which polled 45% consistently throughout the campaign, compared to 22-23% FG), and so did well on transfers, as people wanted to continue with the stable government of the time.

This time around, not only is there a viable alternative coalition, but there are also alternative partners for FF. Basically, the PD’s are expendable.

Sexton, Grealish and Fiona O'Malley are gonners, barring a miracle Tim O'Malley and Parlon are gone and Liz O'Donnell is fighting for survival in one of the toughest constituencies in the country. I've heard from several sources (some of them unbiased!) that Harney is doing very badly in her constituency, as she never gets to visit it cos she's so tied up with Health.

I give them 2 seats to be honest.

Andrew 83

Rather bizarrely the PDs got exactly the same share of the vote in both 1997 and 2002 but managed to get 4 seats in one and 8 in the next. It depends where the support is and how it is shared around. Their doubling of seats in 02 was a little distorted.

irish_bob

the pd,s will be lucky to come back with about 4 seats after the election

but thier is one thing i dont get , when this goverment screws up , its the pd,s who take all the flak , the cute hoors in FF get a pass
its as if expect a very standard from the pd yet we expect nothing but crookedness from FF anyway so its ok when they make a pigs ear of things

someone in here said that in this country people tend to vote for canditates according to which party they are running for as opposed to voting for the canditate on merit , this is baschially along the same lines as i was saying earlier
the vast majority of people in ireland vote for which ever party thier parents and grandparents voted for and as a result a young party like the pd,s who,s no ones grandfather ever voted for and no ones father or mother voted for from the start
we are incredibly traditontal when it comes to voting in this country
as a result a gob****e from FF or FG has a way better chance of being elected than a genius from the smaller partys

The_Minister

I predict around 5/6 seats for the PDs. Minimum. I will apologise if I'm wrong.

nesf

The_Minister wrote:

I predict around 5/6 seats for the PDs. Minimum. I will apologise if I'm wrong.

I've backed them to get 4 or 5 seats so I'll be out of pocket if I'm wrong. I'd love if the people saying they'll get no seats actually put their money where their mouth is.

Stargal

The_Minister wrote:

I predict around 5/6 seats for the PDs. Minimum. I will apologise if I'm wrong.

Apologise for supporting them or for having made an inaccurate prediction?

nesf wrote:

I've backed them to get 4 or 5 seats so I'll be out of pocket if I'm wrong. I'd love if the people saying they'll get no seats actually put their money where their mouth is.

I think it's unlikely that they'll lost all 8 seats, but I've bet that they'll retain 2. And I don't like to lose...

nesf

Laika wrote:

I think it's unlikely that they'll lost all 8 seats, but I've bet that they'll retain 2. And I don't like to lose...

Well, we'll find out soon.

I find it rather amusing when people suggest that they'll lose all eight though. It's hard to see McDonnell, Harney, Parlon and O'Donnell all losing their seats though most of the others are on shakier ground.

billy the squid

Tim O'Malley will be the only limerick east TD not gracing us with his presence in the dail come June in my opinion.

Over all I think that only McDowell and Harney will be in the 30th Dail.

Stargal

nesf wrote:

Well, we'll find out soon.

I find it rather amusing when people suggest that they'll lose all eight though. It's hard to see McDonnell, Harney, Parlon and O'Donnell all losing their seats though most of the others are on shakier ground.

Well to be fair, it's not that hard to see O'Donnell or Parlon in particular losing their seats. O'Donnell is in an exceptionally tight constituency, with Séamus Brennan, Eamon Ryan, Olivia Mitchell, Tom Kitt, Alan Shatter, Alex White and Aidan Culhane, amongst others. Parlon is in the same situation in Laois/Offaly; both of them are lagging just behind the other candidates in their constituency according to that most scientific of methods, Paddy Power

And I still think McDowell and Harney could be in trouble. But we'll see on Friday...

tred

Laika wrote:

At 3-4% in the polls and with a high number of sitting TD's unlikely to keep their seats, I think it's more than fair to suggest that the PD's will have 3 seats or less after the election.

In 2002 when they were polling similar numbers and still managed to get 8 seats, they were the coalition partners of an unbeatable FF (which polled 45% consistently throughout the campaign, compared to 22-23% FG), and so did well on transfers, as people wanted to continue with the stable government of the time.

This time around, not only is there a viable alternative coalition, but there are also alternative partners for FF. Basically, the PD’s are expendable.

Sexton, Grealish and Fiona O'Malley are gonners, barring a miracle Tim O'Malley and Parlon are gone and Liz O'Donnell is fighting for survival in one of the toughest constituencies in the country. I've heard from several sources (some of them unbiased!) that Harney is doing very badly in her constituency, as she never gets to visit it cos she's so tied up with Health.

I give them 2 seats to be honest.

I dont agree on Grealish. He has focused most of his duties locally since elected. He works hard on the ground level and managed the PD team very well in local elections. he doesnt have enough first preference votes as hes not in the city, but Welby and lyons could transfer well. I also think Lyons could push him as well. The bickering between Healy Eames and Mccormack on the FG ticket has hurt their chances of holding on to that seat. Galway West is going to be very interesting. Apart from Eamon o Cuiv everyone is at risk. Transfers are going to seriously decide that one.

nesf

Laika wrote:

Well to be fair, it's not that hard to see O'Donnell or Parlon in particular losing their seats. O'Donnell is in an exceptionally tight constituency, with Séamus Brennan, Eamon Ryan, Olivia Mitchell, Tom Kitt, Alan Shatter, Alex White and Aidan Culhane, amongst others. Parlon is in the same situation in Laois/Offaly; both of them are lagging just behind the other candidates in their constituency according to that most scientific of methods, Paddy Power

And I still think McDowell and Harney could be in trouble. But we'll see on Friday...

I don't disagree, but I think it is unlikely that all of them lose their seat. Individually they look at risk but the odds would not be in favour of every one of them screwing up imho.

DeepBlue

I think it's fair to say that the PD's are finished as a force in Irish politics.
Effectively they just have Harney left as Noel Grealish in Galway has no presence on the national stage and it would be almost impossible to resurrect the party on the basis of just Harney and an unknown.

McDowell did them a huge disservice in the manner in which he resigned yesterday. It smelt of someone deserting a sinking ship and it looks like a vote of no-confidence in the future of the PDs.
Essentially he left them with a PR disaster and PD supporters must be privately furious with the manner in which he left. Liz O'Donnell was far more composed and professional even though she had just experienced the same loss as McDowell.

flogen

The_Minister wrote:

I predict around 5/6 seats for the PDs. Minimum. I will apologise if I'm wrong.

*cough*

(seriously - I expected 4 seats, what looks like two is quite a shock. My honest opinion? It was McDowell what done it. Worst electoral campaign I've ever seen orchestrated.)

DeepBlue wrote:

McDowell did them a huge disservice in the manner in which he resigned yesterday. It smelt of someone deserting a sinking ship and it looks like a vote of no-confidence in the future of the PDs.
Essentially he left them with a PR disaster and PD supporters must be privately furious with the manner in which he left. Liz O'Donnell was far more composed and professional even though she had just experienced the same loss as McDowell.

I think that was him taking as much limelight as he could. He had to resign the leadership, obviously, but to dramatically "resign from public life" seemed a bit too much like, well, a Menopausal Paris Hilton.

solas

Laika wrote:

Apologise for supporting them or for having made an inaccurate prediction?

I think it's unlikely that they'll lost all 8 seats, but I've bet that they'll retain 2. And I don't like to lose...

good call, drinks on you?

thebman

flogen wrote:

*cough*

(seriously - I expected 4 seats, what looks like two is quite a shock. My honest opinion? It was McDowell what done it. Worst electoral campaign I've ever seen orchestrated.)

I agree about McDowell messing it up but I'm glad the PD's are gone TBH. I never say them discuss the issues but only slam the oppositions plan without detailing their own. The same reason many people give for not voting for the opposition. Coincidence, I think not! Also all the trouble with Health and Justice in the run up to the election did them no favours. Harney got re-elected because although Health is in a mess, she is trying to sort the problems out and she is the only PD candidate, I'd be willing to vote for.

I think that was him taking as much limelight as he could. He had to resign the leadership, obviously, but to dramatically "resign from public life" seemed a bit too much like, well, a Menopausal Paris Hilton.

Don't know about that, don't really care, just glad he's gone TBH.

solas

brim4brim wrote:

I agree about McDowell messing it up but I'm glad the PD's are gone TBH. I never say them discuss the issues but only slam the oppositions plan without detailing their own. The same reason many people give for not voting for the opposition. Coincidence, I think not! Also all the trouble with Health and Justice in the run up to the election did them no favours. Harney got re-elected because although Health is in a mess, she is trying to sort the problems out and she is the only PD candidate, I'd be willing to vote for.



Don't know about that, don't really care, just glad he's gone TBH.

regardless of McDowell's presence the Pd's were instrumental to the sucess of the previous Govt. I think their loss will be felt and time will come to show just how much they actually achieved over the past ten years.

Akrasia

brim4brim wrote:

Harney got re-elected because although Health is in a mess, she is trying to sort the problems out and she is the only PD candidate, I'd be willing to vote for.

By privatising primary health care and making the two tier system even worse?

johnnyskeleton

I would love it if the first act of the new dail is the Criminal Justice (Amendment) Act, 2007 which discreetly repeals everything in the Criminal Justice Act, 2006 and 2007.