Major swing in election for Fianna Fail - Rainbow down 4%

The_Minister

ArthurDent wrote:

Perhaps, but what will the PD's 2% bring in - certainly not 8 to 10 seats

The PDs were, according to the Irish Times, going to get 2% in the polls when they went in last election.

johnnyrotten

E92 wrote:

I have read the poll results. Does anyone seriously believe that Labour could have dropped 3% after Pat Rabbitte's performance on Wednesday?

Absolutely

LostinBlanch

The_Minister wrote:

The PDs were, according to the Irish Times, going to get 2% in the polls when they went in last election.

Well hopefullythis time they're gonners. I'll be down the pub when I hear that fcuker McDowell is out of the Dáil. The only thing is that the bloody fecker will get back into legal practice. Couldn't we just send him off to Rockall?

Lennoxschips

ateam wrote:

government being muted in the media

you sir, have brought laughter into my life

ninty9er

E92 wrote:

I have read the poll results. Does anyone seriously believe that Labour could have dropped 3% after Pat Rabbitte's performance on Wednesday? Everyone said that he was the best by a mile of the 4 leaders that were there. As for a 'Rainbow meltdown' FG are down 1%, the Greens are up 1%.

Can anyone explain how in the three polls that have been made available in the past 24 hrs

This one is the only one taken AFTER the Leaders debate, while RedC was taken on Wednesday, Thursday AND Friday.

They want FF/Labour on the doorsteps and FF/Labour is what they're gonna get!!

Diorraing

Finally, the Irish people have woken up. The results speak for themselves, deny them all you want. I'm guessing people actually read the FG manifesto - its as good as a piece of paper telling people not to vote for them. Surprised at Labour going down more than FG - they were the only ones who gave the "Rainbow" farce any sense of credibility.

mickd

ninty9er wrote:

This one is the only one taken AFTER the Leaders debate, while RedC was taken on Wednesday, Thursday AND Friday.

They want FF/Labour on the doorsteps and FF/Labour is what they're gonna get!!

Agreed100%. Can you image Rabbitte fighting to stay in opposition.

ninty9er

mickd wrote:

Agreed100%. Can you image Rabbitte fighting to stay in opposition.

I actually have that picture in my head and I must say it brought a to my face.

at least 5 people said it straight out to me and way more people in body language that they just couldn't trust Enda to run the country...at least Bertie was Minister for Finance and had experience as Minister for Trade and Labour...he practically engineered the partnership framework

redspider

blorg wrote:

Well this is the problem with the opinon polling, we just get overall percentages for the entire country which is not very helpful and only tangentially related to how the individual constituencies come in on the day. Secondary preferences, which are sort of important in our electoral system, are completely ignored.

It's particularly marked for the smaller parties of course, 2% nationwide for the spawn-of-hell party is meaningless as their support base is very concentrated. The key is whether X Y and Z can scrape their seats in constituencies A B and C.

I fully agree with you.

I've posted the same point here several times in this and other forums and indeed I've been bleating on about it for years and indeed decades now, as no doubt others have as well. However, our voice is not being heard.

This country mistakenly gets caught up each time in election polls when it is known by all and sundry, politicians and the media, that the opinion polls are not an accurate predictor of the election.

We have 43x constituencies with 43x mini-elections, each one with its own vagaries, personalities, characters, traditions, etc. An opinion poll of 1000+ people carried out by Red-C or whoever and attempting to map that onto those 43 constitituencies is meangingless and prone to major inaccuracies.

But do we ever learn? It doesnt look like it form the mileage that these polls seem to get ....

Redspider

nesf

Link on the Irish Times site is up:

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2007/0521/1179498487415.html?digest=1

nesf

Ibid wrote:

There's no way FF are on 41% tbh. The dissent against them relative to last time is huge. I'll put my hat on them not being 35-38% on D-Day.

Bluntly, there is every chance that FF are on 41%. a) The people are fickle and b) it's just a poll. The level of accuracy in these things isn't great +/- 3% is a "best estimate" to be fair. Don't rule out the polls being wrong (not to say this one is right, just I wouldn't make claims to fact excluding anything based on them when traditionally the figure isn't hugely unusual, if it was the PDs at 12% I'd agree with you).

is_that_so wrote:

EDIT: A similar poll done by the Irish Times at the same time in the last election overstated FF support by 4%.
- The Week In Politics

Afaik, they adjust their figures to take account for this since that election and "mark down" FF and "mark up" FG to compensate. Not the most accurate way of doing things, especially when their research isn't made public (for obvious reasons).

copacetic

nesf wrote:

Link on the Irish Times site is up:

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2007/0521/1179498487415.html?digest=1

interesting that FF get the video ad up beside that story...

nesf

copacetic wrote:

interesting that FF get the video ad up beside that story...

Heh. I wouldn't read into that much tbh.

Tá Mé Gaeilge

Is it just me or is FF hopeless anyway- They have nobody to go into government with. Both Labour and the Greens have ruled it out in recent weeks. FF ruled out SF the other day so they have no friends. Their only hope is that PDs will turn around and say oh we suddenly have confidence in you again; but even at that they will have at most 43% Looks more and more likely that SF will come into use by one side

nesf

Tá M&#233 wrote: »

Is it just me or is FF hopeless anyway- They have nobody to go into government with.

Eh, I disagree. Labour and the Greens are committed to the rainbow now but after the election it is every party for themselves and if by cutting a "deal with the devil" they believe they can get enough of their manifesto enacted they'll sit beside FF. They after all want primarily to be in power and affect change in this country, who they are "in bed with" is a secondary concern I imagine. Whether a FF/Lab government would last a full term is very much open to question though.

PH01

To me these polls are too volatile to be believed. If they were fluctuating between 1 and 2 percent then they would be more believable.

A 5% gains in such a small sample are suspect.

road_high

Opinion polls, opinion polls...I really would like to see them banned in the week before an election.
They certainly wouldn't change my voting intenetions. I want to see FF in opposition. I think it's so bad for democracy to have one party with unbroken power for so long.. Sure next we'll have FF rewriting the constitution giving them an unlimited hold on power!

ednwireland

ninty9er wrote:

at least 5 people said it straight out to me and way more people in body language that they just couldn't trust Enda to run the country...at least Bertie was Minister for Finance and had experience as Minister for Trade and Labour...he practically engineered the partnership framework

and you can trust bertie huge overspends ministers running projects hat never get anywhere with no accountabiity (ppars e voting, integrated ticketing ) infrastructure in a mess traffic gridlock, no public transport, infrastructure projects, high inflation, empty new houses around the country held up by tax breaks, people on hospital trolleys - 30 last week in cork, only falling cos its summer) oh yeh i'd trust bertie to do a good job muppet leading muppets
btw i run my own buisiness - just get hammered by red tape everywhere.
i really wonder what world people live in when they want to see ff re-elected its not mine thats for sure

joecoote

Opinion polls in multi-party countries have to be taken with a grain of salt. Lacking a single party getting an overall majority of 1st preferences, it's the distribution of transfers that are of paramount importance. I do believe, however, that FF support on 1st preference votes has increased. As the election nears, the opinions of voters harden. However, the Irish Times's poll is a best case scenario for FF. It's still bad news for the PD's. FF will have to look beyond the PD's for contiuation in government.

The election in the last week will simply be between two messages. FF will tell the electorate to vote for them because they have a proven track record on the economy. If you vote for the other parties, you will have a hard time paying for your mortgages.

The opposition message is that we will manage the economy better; getting rid of budgetary waste and reliance on vested interests. However, they do not have a recent proven track record.

At the end of the day , even people who are dissatisfied with the current situation will stick down a preference for FF somewhere on the ballot paper. People vote for pennies - not ideals.

Speaking to a FF supporter/contributer last week, he told me genuinely that he didn't care who got into government. His assertion was that the modern Irish economy had tied people into a way of life they will not be able to adandon. He pointed out that many of his customers use credit cards to make daily purchases. Five/ten years ago that was unheard of. People are building bigger homes than they need. Every extra square metre has to be paid for in their mortgages.

I've go to hand it to FF, their socio-economic engineering should, hypothetically, keep them in power for the next 30 to 40 years.

Voipjunkie

Tá M&#233 wrote: »

Is it just me or is FF hopeless anyway- They have nobody to go into government with. Both Labour and the Greens have ruled it out in recent weeks. FF ruled out SF the other day so they have no friends. Their only hope is that PDs will turn around and say oh we suddenly have confidence in you again; but even at that they will have at most 43% Looks more and more likely that SF will come into use by one side

It is you

You seem to be under the impression that a party or parties need over 50% to get into Government

If FF got 41% then they could get 78+ seats if the PDs hold 4 seats then they are done they still have Healy Rae others to put them over the line

The Greens have not ruled out FF

And if the numbers stack up there is no way that the Labour party are going to volunteer for another 5 years on the opposition benches rather than go with FF seriously which is better go with FF and get most of your policy platform implemented or sit on the opposition side watching the Greens or worse SF getting their policies implemented

Basically the FG/Lab/Greens need to win at least 79 seats to have any hope of cobbling together a deal with Independents

Of course that is if you believe the opinion poll I doubt that FF got that big a bounce from the debate although Bertie did run rings around Enda

redspider

Voipjunkie wrote:

The Greens have not ruled out FF

And if the numbers stack up there is no way that the Labour party are going to volunteer for another 5 years on the opposition benches rather than go with FF seriously which is better go with FF and get most of your policy platform implemented or sit on the opposition side watching the Greens or worse SF getting their policies implemented

On another thread, I spoke about the possibility of Labour supporting a minority and short-lived FF government. Whether FF would do that though is questionable. Labour could get away with it and keep their original stance in situ as it would be seen as tactical for the 'good of the country' rather than having an immediate re-election. I cannot see Labour going in with FF. This would lose them even some core supporters in the next election and the 'Spring Tide' (which came in and went out again spectacularly) is well remembered. Labour need to plan for the long haul and that means sticking with their guns, and not flip-flopping.

An alternative however, if the numbers stack up and they may do so, is an FF minority government supported by the Green Party, as this could benefit both the Greens and FF. Again, it would be short-lived on purpose by the Green's depending on what amount of policies they could get in the door and implemented within 6 months or within a year, but the more they get the longer they could stay as a government supporter. It would suit FF who would be able to spin those changes as their's anyway, a greening of FF as they and all parties have been doing anyway.

The post election manoevering is going to be interesting if we have both
FF+PD+some Ind's < 83
and
FG+Lab+GP+some Ind's < 83

FF and FG would rather sit in opposition than work with SF, at least in this election. I suspect that will be changed in the next 5 years.

Redspider

kevmy

Even if FF are on 41% which I doubt they won't get the same seat bonus they did the last time. FG were in meltdown and they worked the transfers incredibly well. Also FF were close to 50% in some polls before the last election and they didn't get that on polling day.
The key in my mind in how many of the tight seats FG can get. If they get 50 they will be in government, either as a minority (Joe Higgins will definetly abstain and very possibly SF too) or with some independents.
Because Lab will get between 20 and 24 and Greens will get 8-9 so the important number for me is 50 for FG (and it's still possible with FF on 39% but with sloppier transfers and a PD meltdown)
Pat Rabbitte will also try any form of bastardised government with FG before even contemplating FF

The White Rose

Of course that is if you believe the opinion poll I doubt that FF got that big a bounce from the debate although Bertie did run rings around Enda

Remember all those undecideds?

Well they saw the debate and decided.

Kenny is finished. FG need to skip a generation and get a young charismatic leader.

Seth Brundle

The White Rose wrote:

Remember all those undecideds?

Well they saw the debate and decided.

Kenny is finished. FG need to skip a generation and get a young charismatic leader.

Whats that based on?

The White Rose

Whats that based on?

Where else have they magically found 5%

andylfc77

This forum is very weird got a thread shut down, seems very strict, anyhow, on the politics show last night at the end one of the panelists said that in the 2002 general election, the same paper had the same poll and the same results, but were 100% wrong in 2002, is this true?

kevmy

andylfc77 wrote:

This forum is very weird got a thread shut down, seems very strict, anyhow, on the politics show last night at the end one of the panelists said that in the 2002 general election, the same paper had the same poll and the same results, but were 100% wrong in 2002, is this true?

They were out by 4/5%. They overestimated the FF vote, said it would be close to high 40's - even 50% - ended up as 42% of the vote overall. But they did get a big seat bonus.
It's often mentioned that the FF vote is overestimated and the FG vote is underestimated. If this is true for this poll - even by a percent or two - it would turn the election back in the favour of the alternative.
All that can be said for sure at this stage is that it's going to be tight.

road_high

I thought RTE news coverage last night particularly was almost bordering on the hysterical re FF up in the polls.
They were pictured celebrating at their HQ with balloons and streamers etc; exactly like they add actually won the election. I found that sickening and galvanised me more to go out and vote against them Thursday!

And we all know the story of the tortoise and the hare....

Voipjunkie

redspider wrote:

On another thread, I spoke about the possibility of Labour supporting a minority and short-lived FF government. Whether FF would do that though is questionable. Labour could get away with it and keep their original stance in situ as it would be seen as tactical for the 'good of the country' rather than having an immediate re-election. I cannot see Labour going in with FF. This would lose them even some core supporters in the next election and the 'Spring Tide' (which came in and went out again spectacularly) is well remembered. Labour need to plan for the long haul and that means sticking with their guns, and not flip-flopping.

An alternative however, if the numbers stack up and they may do so, is an FF minority government supported by the Green Party, as this could benefit both the Greens and FF. Again, it would be short-lived on purpose by the Green's depending on what amount of policies they could get in the door and implemented within 6 months or within a year, but the more they get the longer they could stay as a government supporter. It would suit FF who would be able to spin those changes as their's anyway, a greening of FF as they and all parties have been doing anyway.

The post election manoevering is going to be interesting if we have both
FF+PD+some Ind's < 83
and
FG+Lab+GP+some Ind's < 83

FF and FG would rather sit in opposition than work with SF, at least in this election. I suspect that will be changed in the next 5 years.

Redspider

TBH I cannot see Labour doing that more chance of FG repeating the tallaght strategy
Labour would be propping up FF but getting none of the perks of power

Voipjunkie

The White Rose wrote:

Remember all those undecideds?

Well they saw the debate and decided.

Kenny is finished. FG need to skip a generation and get a young charismatic leader.

Brilliant except undecideds are on 15% unchanged

honestly it is silly to be predicting the outcome of the election based on one poll