Major swing in election for Fianna Fail - Rainbow down 4%

redspider

Voipjunkie wrote:

The Greens have not ruled out FF

And if the numbers stack up there is no way that the Labour party are going to volunteer for another 5 years on the opposition benches rather than go with FF seriously which is better go with FF and get most of your policy platform implemented or sit on the opposition side watching the Greens or worse SF getting their policies implemented

On another thread, I spoke about the possibility of Labour supporting a minority and short-lived FF government. Whether FF would do that though is questionable. Labour could get away with it and keep their original stance in situ as it would be seen as tactical for the 'good of the country' rather than having an immediate re-election. I cannot see Labour going in with FF. This would lose them even some core supporters in the next election and the 'Spring Tide' (which came in and went out again spectacularly) is well remembered. Labour need to plan for the long haul and that means sticking with their guns, and not flip-flopping.

An alternative however, if the numbers stack up and they may do so, is an FF minority government supported by the Green Party, as this could benefit both the Greens and FF. Again, it would be short-lived on purpose by the Green's depending on what amount of policies they could get in the door and implemented within 6 months or within a year, but the more they get the longer they could stay as a government supporter. It would suit FF who would be able to spin those changes as their's anyway, a greening of FF as they and all parties have been doing anyway.

The post election manoevering is going to be interesting if we have both
FF+PD+some Ind's < 83
and
FG+Lab+GP+some Ind's < 83

FF and FG would rather sit in opposition than work with SF, at least in this election. I suspect that will be changed in the next 5 years.

Redspider

kevmy

Even if FF are on 41% which I doubt they won't get the same seat bonus they did the last time. FG were in meltdown and they worked the transfers incredibly well. Also FF were close to 50% in some polls before the last election and they didn't get that on polling day.
The key in my mind in how many of the tight seats FG can get. If they get 50 they will be in government, either as a minority (Joe Higgins will definetly abstain and very possibly SF too) or with some independents.
Because Lab will get between 20 and 24 and Greens will get 8-9 so the important number for me is 50 for FG (and it's still possible with FF on 39% but with sloppier transfers and a PD meltdown)
Pat Rabbitte will also try any form of bastardised government with FG before even contemplating FF

The White Rose

Of course that is if you believe the opinion poll I doubt that FF got that big a bounce from the debate although Bertie did run rings around Enda

Remember all those undecideds?

Well they saw the debate and decided.

Kenny is finished. FG need to skip a generation and get a young charismatic leader.

Seth Brundle

The White Rose wrote:

Remember all those undecideds?

Well they saw the debate and decided.

Kenny is finished. FG need to skip a generation and get a young charismatic leader.

Whats that based on?

The White Rose

Whats that based on?

Where else have they magically found 5%

andylfc77

This forum is very weird got a thread shut down, seems very strict, anyhow, on the politics show last night at the end one of the panelists said that in the 2002 general election, the same paper had the same poll and the same results, but were 100% wrong in 2002, is this true?

kevmy

andylfc77 wrote:

This forum is very weird got a thread shut down, seems very strict, anyhow, on the politics show last night at the end one of the panelists said that in the 2002 general election, the same paper had the same poll and the same results, but were 100% wrong in 2002, is this true?

They were out by 4/5%. They overestimated the FF vote, said it would be close to high 40's - even 50% - ended up as 42% of the vote overall. But they did get a big seat bonus.
It's often mentioned that the FF vote is overestimated and the FG vote is underestimated. If this is true for this poll - even by a percent or two - it would turn the election back in the favour of the alternative.
All that can be said for sure at this stage is that it's going to be tight.

road_high

I thought RTE news coverage last night particularly was almost bordering on the hysterical re FF up in the polls.
They were pictured celebrating at their HQ with balloons and streamers etc; exactly like they add actually won the election. I found that sickening and galvanised me more to go out and vote against them Thursday!

And we all know the story of the tortoise and the hare....

Voipjunkie

redspider wrote:

On another thread, I spoke about the possibility of Labour supporting a minority and short-lived FF government. Whether FF would do that though is questionable. Labour could get away with it and keep their original stance in situ as it would be seen as tactical for the 'good of the country' rather than having an immediate re-election. I cannot see Labour going in with FF. This would lose them even some core supporters in the next election and the 'Spring Tide' (which came in and went out again spectacularly) is well remembered. Labour need to plan for the long haul and that means sticking with their guns, and not flip-flopping.

An alternative however, if the numbers stack up and they may do so, is an FF minority government supported by the Green Party, as this could benefit both the Greens and FF. Again, it would be short-lived on purpose by the Green's depending on what amount of policies they could get in the door and implemented within 6 months or within a year, but the more they get the longer they could stay as a government supporter. It would suit FF who would be able to spin those changes as their's anyway, a greening of FF as they and all parties have been doing anyway.

The post election manoevering is going to be interesting if we have both
FF+PD+some Ind's < 83
and
FG+Lab+GP+some Ind's < 83

FF and FG would rather sit in opposition than work with SF, at least in this election. I suspect that will be changed in the next 5 years.

Redspider

TBH I cannot see Labour doing that more chance of FG repeating the tallaght strategy
Labour would be propping up FF but getting none of the perks of power

Voipjunkie

The White Rose wrote:

Remember all those undecideds?

Well they saw the debate and decided.

Kenny is finished. FG need to skip a generation and get a young charismatic leader.

Brilliant except undecideds are on 15% unchanged

honestly it is silly to be predicting the outcome of the election based on one poll

wow sierra

mfitzy wrote:

I thought RTE news coverage last night particularly was almost bordering on the hysterical re FF up in the polls.
They were pictured celebrating at their HQ with balloons and streamers etc; exactly like they add actually won the election. I found that sickening and galvanised me more to go out and vote against them Thursday!

And we all know the story of the tortoise and the hare....

Unfortunate reference to the tortoise and the hare - in this story Fianna Fáil are the Tortoise - The rainbow were acting like it was sown up last week!!!!!

As regards the RTE coverage what did you want - a little footnote at the end of the Bulletin???? People have been on the edge of their seats waiting for this poll since Thurs nights debate.

This poll does not say Fianna Fáil will win - it just gives them huge momentum and encouragement to push on at this stage.

nesf

Voipjunkie wrote:

Brilliant except undecideds are on 15% unchanged

honestly it is silly to be predicting the outcome of the election based on one poll

I completely agree on your second point but your first one is fallacious. It could be that (and I don't necessarily think this) there was a shift of undecided to FF and a shift from FG and Lab to undecided after the debates. You'd have no net change in undecided voters but there would be a voter shift.

Not that I agree with The White Rose or anything.

cm2000

i think the poll is accurate. the weekend poll showed ff up 1/2%-lets take an average of 1.5%. they were conducted over three days, only one of which was after the debate. i.e the 1.5% increase could have been recorded on the final day. in the most recent poll the vote was after the debate, all of it and was 5% or close enough to 4.5% or 1.5x3

joecoote

As polls go, this one shows the upper most range that FF will get in terms of votes. Even on upper most limit, FF is going to need partners. PD's are in trouble, big time. If there is even a percentage point or two slippage from this OP, then FF is going to need much more than the PD's meagre return. See how it goes. It all down to preferences now.

Predictions:

1. News stories (leaks?) on Republican (perceived?) criminality to become prominent. This is the easiest party to from which to keep preferences going to. All parties will believe they will benefit from such a tactic.

2. Attacks (scare-mongering?) on Green Party policies.

3. Message (media or otherwise): a vote for an independent is a wasted vote.

4. Down and dirty rumour-mongering at constituency level. Should be one or two real dirty tricks pulled.

5. FF upper echelon to act Presidential. Don't expect anything substantial on policies; just some sound-bites. Main message: it's the economy (mortgage repayments), stupid.

Question: Have Bertie and McDowell been seen hugging in public lately? Will we see the coalition partners in a photo op before the election?

The White Rose

Not that I agree with The White Rose or anything.

Thank God for that!

Watching the debate the other day, it does seem that Bertie has that very rare star quality. Clinton had it and would have been re elected if the constitution had allowed him to run a third time

Kenny doesn't and I cant help feeling that people prefer to have Ahern representing them at home and abroad

PH01

joecoote wrote:

As polls go, this one shows the upper most range that FF will get in terms of votes. Even on upper most limit, FF is going to need partners.

41% was the adjusted figure in today's opinion poll? This being the case then it hard to say if this is their upper limit.
An amazing figure to get all the same and at the right time too.

joecoote wrote:

PD's are in trouble, big time. If there is even a percentage point or two slippage from this OP, then FF is going to need much more than the PD's meagre return. See how it goes.

Yes, but we shouldn't write off the PDs. They were down to 2 or 3 seats before and they came back.
Who know what they could do if they had a different leader, or if Mick McDowell was less abrasive?

joecoote wrote:

It all down to preferences now.

Yip. And a good opinion poll will be reflected in the transfers. Bertie's performance last Thursday night did the party's candidates the world of good.

joecoote wrote:

1. News stories (leaks?) on Republican (perceived?) criminality to become prominent. This is the easiest party to from which to keep preferences going to. All parties will believe they will benefit from such a tactic.

FF, the Republican Party, involved with criminality?! Never!

joecoote wrote:

2. Attacks (scare-mongering?) on Green Party policies.

That's been done hasn't it? And most of it true (let's see then deny it ).

joecoote wrote:

3. Message (media or otherwise): a vote for an independent is a wasted vote.

Quite a few of them will have a battle to get elected in their own right - ref: JHR in South Kerry

joecoote wrote:

4. Down and dirty rumour-mongering at constituency level. Should be one or two real dirty tricks pulled.

That sort of thing goes on all the time and not only when there's an election.

joecoote wrote:

5. FF upper echelon to act Presidential. Don't expect anything substantial on policies; just some sound-bites. Main message: it's the economy (mortgage repayments), stupid.

Indeed. You can almost hear then chanting "5 More Years"!

joecoote wrote:

Question: Have Bertie and McDowell been seen hugging in public lately? Will we see the coalition partners in a photo op before the election?

Unlikely. Bertie will be doing his best to just associate with winners.

Anyway, McDowell on the other hand will be too busy with his posters over the next 48 hours or so.

Neil3030

If, by those figures, it now stands at 43% a piece between FF/PD and FG/Lab/GP, would there be independents sway it?

brianthebard

The White Rose wrote:

Thank God for that!

Watching the debate the other day, it does seem that Bertie has that very rare star quality. Clinton had it and would have been re elected if the constitution had allowed him to run a third time

Now that is a joke, even if one were to claim that Ahern won the debate, it cannot be said that he won it well or that he displayed any real force of character or charisma. Instead he took pot shots and tried to pick at numerical weaknesses. He did not come across as having any sort of star quality.

cm2000

brianthebard wrote:

, even if one were to claim that Ahern won the debate, it cannot be said that he won it well QUOTE]
i disagree wholeheartedly. enda lost in alomost every area. he even lost in health. the people have seen this and its reflected in the post debate poll

ateam

Voipjunkie wrote:

Brilliant except undecideds are on 15% unchanged

honestly it is silly to be predicting the outcome of the election based on one poll

Undeciders tend not to vote in the election itself. At this point in the election, the vast majority of people who intend on voting have made their minds up. It's all about making sure they vote now.

Agent J

ateam wrote:

Undeciders tend not to vote in the election itself. At this point in the election, the vast majority of people who intend on voting have made their minds up. It's all about making sure they vote now.

Is that based on anything or is it speculation?

Personally im still trying to make my mind up.

Voipjunkie

brianthebard wrote:

Now that is a joke, even if one were to claim that Ahern won the debate, it cannot be said that he won it well or that he displayed any real force of character or charisma. Instead he took pot shots and tried to pick at numerical weaknesses. He did not come across as having any sort of star quality.

I am not a FFer

But tbh Bertie danced rings around Enda

He caught him out on the under 5 medical card when the simple answer is that even if no child alive now will benefit when it is in it will benefit all children and it is better than FF solution which is to do nothing.

He caught him out on the tax issue where he effectively got enda to say that FG favoured tax breaks for the most wealthy in society

He caught him out on the hospital beds issue


That is 3 main issues of the top of my head

Enda did not seem capable of understanding the angle that bertie was coming from and was completely incapable of heading him off.


As I said I am not a FFer I will not be voting for FF

Lennoxschips

bertie talked louder and talked over enda and miriam, if people want to construe this as him having won the debate, then so be it. personally, i wasn't impressed

He caught him out on the under 5 medical card when the simple answer is that even if no child alive now will benefit when it is in it will benefit all children and it is better than FF solution which is to do nothing.

yes, but bertie's point here was stupid and irrelevant.

He caught him out on the tax issue where he effectively got enda to say that FG favoured tax breaks for the most wealthy in society

...while fianna fail have been lowering the top tax rate for years. bertie has some neck. once again, i wasn't impressed.

He caught him out on the hospital beds issue

the media are concentrating on this for some reason, but bertie's assertion that there is no crisis in the health service went unnoticed

DMC

And that, Lennoxchips, is where Ahern beat Kenny. Kenny wasnt able to hammer his points, and yet, its like so may other times in the Dail.

I still hark back to last Sept/Oct, at "Bertiegate 1". Enda had Ahern on his knees, but he gave Bertie a lot of slack. What we saw on Thursday night was more of the same.

Enda looked like he needed backup. In the Dail, when Leaders Questions are on, the two front benches barrack each other, cheerleaders for each side, Dick Roache and Bernard Durkin jawwing at each other across the floor, tubthumping, and all before the Ceann Comhairle rings his bell and we all sit down. Kenny looked like he needed support.

And for that reason, personally, the impression I get is that Labour and Pat Rabbitte would walk all over him in government (unless FG get more than 60 seats.)

I think if people look back at that debate, differences in style, who talked over who, promises about health versus record on health, promises about gardai etc. etc. etc. Think it was much of a muchness. The thing that stood out for a few people I know, even those canvassing for FG and staunch Enda fans, was the whole 'I've got my best team/my justice spokesman got his stats wrong' admission. Even if he said Jim O'Keeffe was correct, he would have got a slap on the wrist from a few newpapers the day after. It was a glaring error, I was surprised Bertie didn't leap across the table when he heard it. Charlie and Albert would have.

kevmy

DMC wrote:

And for that reason, personally, the impression I get is that Labour and Pat Rabbitte would walk all over him in government (unless FG get more than 60 seats.)

Thats rich considering McDowell and the rest of the PD's have essentially set the agenda for this government with 8 TD's and a couple of half-breeds (Cullen, Brennan). Co-location, Bertie Bowl, the airport, tax cuts for the rich.
At least Labour would have some sort of mandate instead of the half-crazed, loonies that vote for the PD's

kevmy

kevmy wrote:

At least Labour would have some sort of mandate instead of the half-crazed, loonies that vote for the PD's

Is that meant to be a serious point or a lapse into hysteria?

You could have disagreed without reference to half breeds and suggestions that only the insane vote PD. It makes a nonsense out of any point you buried in the post.

gandalf

kevmy wrote:

At least Labour would have some sort of mandate instead of the half-crazed, loonies that vote for the PD's

Jaysus what is it about this election, I don't remember this level of crap for the last one.

Take a weeks break for that outbreak.