The enda Enda? Rabbitte to hop off?

Pardon the puns.

But if the Irish Times poll is accurate, it could be all over, and the next Government will be Fianna Fail and Labour. In which case would it be time for Enda to exit stage right? And presumably Labour in Government with FF will be the end of Pat Rabbitte too, indeed he's got twice the problems as another 5 years in opposition might see a lot of Labour TDs wonder if Pat's strategy of alienating FF was right.

Propellerhead

There will be no deal between Labour and FF.

Labour's soft liberal middle class vote would desert them, and Sinn Fein would attack the rest.

This aul guff about Labour and FF is divide and conquer tactics from FF, who refuse to recognise that there are any problems out there in health, education, planning and housing.

Don't be fooled by the mice looking to mind the cheese for another five years.

Propellerhead

Propellerhead wrote:

There will be no deal between Labour and FF.

So Labour could force another election?

I wonder would all their backbenchers relish that? That wouldn't fill me with any more confidence about Pat's future tbh. How many years will they have been in the wilderness if they are not part of the next Government?

PH01

If the Alternative don't get the seats and neither do FF and the PDs (and indos), there will be a deal done between FF and LAB.

Pat Rabbitte might be saying now that there's not a chance, but if it comes to it he'll have to change his tune (or resign).

Colonel Sanders

PH01 wrote:

If the Alternative don't get the seats and neither do FF and the PDs (and indos), there will be a deal done between FF and LAB.

Pat Rabbitte might be saying now that there's not a chance, but if it comes to it he'll have to change his tune (or resign).

must say I agree with this. It might mean PAt RAbitte gives up the leadership or even leaves the party. I dispise FF but a FF/Labour government would appeal more than FF/SF as unfortunately the PDs look like losing about half their seats and FF/PD's won't be happening.

The only thing i will say is those who want to see a change in government don't give up yet, make the latest polls the added spur to get out and vote in numbers this thursday.

wow sierra

Colonel Sanders wrote:

.

The only thing i will say is those who want to see a change in government don't give up yet, make the latest polls the added spur to get out and vote in numbers this thursday.

Absolutely agree, with respect to supporters of all parties - I remember saying on a thread weeks ago its just as important to get people out to vote as it is to convice them that you are the right party to vote for. In this respect Fianna Fáil have been very good at this - their poor poll standings up to this might have made them despondent but the comeback will have them motivated again with the whiff of a near overall majority on the cards again....

This could be one of the highest turnouts in ages.

ArthurDent

Colonel Sanders wrote:

The only thing i will say is those who want to see a change in government don't give up yet, make the latest polls the added spur to get out and vote in numbers this thursday.

Abso-bloody-lutely!

Agent J

If i was in FF party headquarters i would really hate these polls.

A week ago there would have been more of a need for people to come out and vote FF because they were low. Now they are high and a degree of apathy will strike....

wow sierra

Agent J wrote:

If i was in FF party headquarters i would really hate these polls.

A week ago there would have been more of a need for people to come out and vote FF because they were low. Now they are high and a degree of apathy will strike....

As I said above - I think the opposite is true.

wow sierra

wow sierra wrote:

This could be one of the highest turnouts in ages.

The weather over the bulk of the country looks to be fine and warm on thursday unlike the last time 2002 which was a washout and that got nearly 60%.It's likely to rain in the west and northwest in the evening though.
I'd imagine there will be a turn out in the mid 60's this time.

Agent J

Agent J wrote:

A week ago there would have been more of a need for people to come out and vote FF because they were low. Now they are high and a degree of apathy will strike....

You couldn't be more wrong.

FF are delighted with the polls. Texts flying left right and centre, almost bouyant. This poll has given the FF campaign a real boost. Areas where candidates had been all but written off will canvass like crazy for the last few days to capitalise on any change in momentum and swing to FF. This is exactly what a previously flagging campaign really needed.

PH01

Colonel Sanders wrote:

The only thing i will say is those who want to see a change in government don't give up yet, make the latest polls the added spur to get out and vote in numbers this thursday.

Indeed. Though this poll has given great encouragement to the FFers too. And they're dangerous animals to have aroused with just a couple of days to the poll and opinion polls going their way.

Dare we say '5 More Years'!?

thebman

wow sierra wrote:

Absolutely agree, with respect to supporters of all parties - I remember saying on a thread weeks ago its just as important to get people out to vote as it is to convice them that you are the right party to vote for. In this respect Fianna Fáil have been very good at this - their poor poll standings up to this might have made them despondent but the comeback will have them motivated again with the whiff of a near overall majority on the cards again....

This could be one of the highest turnouts in ages.

AH yeah, that's why Bertie called the election on a Thursday. to ensure good voter turn out. Where would we be without him?

brianthebard

PH01 wrote:

If the Alternative don't get the seats and neither do FF and the PDs (and indos), there will be a deal done between FF and LAB.

As a labour voter I feel it is better to be in government even if its not with the parties preferred coalition partners.

Pat Rabbitte might be saying now that there's not a chance, but if it comes to it he'll have to change his tune (or resign).

Has he actually ruled it out? He would be foolish to do so imo, he would lose transfers from FF voters if there are any available.

Agent J

I should explain. I'm looking at this from a stragtegic dimension.

A 2 or 3 % percent increase would have been perfect and allowed a degree of relief without people getting ahead of themselves like appears to be happening now. It would also them build a certain degree of moumentuim which will top out by the election day.

A 5% increase seems a little much and allows the belief that its already won to slip in which can be lethal to a campaign and kills momentum.

There is only one poll is really counts and we'll see what happens come thursday and i think a hung dail is a real possibility.

Whats the bets McDowell pulls out his one party government posters again?

Snake Plisken

Yeah he was on 6-1 news last week and Brian Dobsen pushed him on the matter if he would fully rule out going into government with Bertie and he said no way. Now if he backs down well he will lose all credability and I would say he will have to resign. As for the latest opinion polls I would be more spurred on to vote for FG/Lab as I couldn't stand another 5 years of Bertie and Cowen. Also interesting article in the Mail today about the so-called M50 mothers, who are working mothers living in the commuter counties around Dublin, who might have a major say as they are fed up with what they see as Bertie and his aggressive team and might swing the vote.

We shall see

Snake

nacho libre

So Browne has achieved what no one else has so far- he left Pat Rabbitte fluttered. How would the clever clogs of this board have answered his question about Labour forming a coalition with Fianna Fail in the national interest if it looked like Sinn Fein were Fianna Fail's only option?

between this exchange today coupled with Kenny's abject performance last thursday it looks like Pat Rabbitte will have to resign. i mean how can he now spin leading his party into government with fianna fail without his credibility being shot? surely, if the numbers do fall that way the rest of the labour party will insist on the party going into government with Fianna Fail?

PH01

brianthebard wrote:

Has he actually ruled it out? He would be foolish to do so imo, he would lose transfers from FF voters if there are any available.

He has (see interviews with Pat Kenny and Irish Times last week) but Labour hasn't as far as I can tell.

Seth Brundle

I will probably vote for the alternative offering for several reasons. One of which is what PR is stating now about not getting into bed with FF.
If it looks like I was lied to by Labour just so they can enter piwer then Labour will never get my vote again.

DeepBlue

Deleted User wrote:

But if the Irish Times poll is accurate, it could be all over, and the next Government will be Fianna Fail and Labour. In which case would it be time for Enda to exit stage right?

I'd say Enda is pobably the safest party leader. No matter what happens on Thursday his party is going to gain seats. It can't fail to gain seats after the number it lost the last time out.
Also who would be the challenger? Richard Bruton would probably be the favourite but he seems more suited to the his current role of able lieutenent.
Kenny would need to start worrying if he gets a large number of FG'ers elected, doesn't get into Government and his party starts dropping back down to the low 20's in the opinion polls. The knives will start to come out then.

Tbh, of all the party leaders Bertie seems the most vulnerable to being shafted. No FF'er would say it publicly but his money issues were the reason FF had such a miserable first two weeks of the campaign. These problems were 100% his responsibility and yet the FF party took the hit. There must be many in FF wondering if they would be cruising back to Government if it wasn't for the hit they took on that issue.

Also the most probable coalition partners for FF would probably want his head in exchange for agreeing to coalition. The Greens and Labour would probably expect that as a price of doing business and to save face themselves.

However it's still early days to be speculating - this must be one of the closest elections in years and it's all still to play for with a very thin line between victory and defeat.

axer

Whast the odds of a FF/SF coalition? I would like to see how sinn fein are in government.

about a billion to one this time round.
Odd will be better next time though if some more policies are mellowed.

starman100

DeepBlue wrote:

................

Tbh, of all the party leaders Bertie seems the most vulnerable to being shafted. No FF'er would say it publicly but his money issues were the reason FF had such a miserable first two weeks of the campaign. These problems were 100% his responsibility and yet the FF party took the hit. There must be many in FF wondering if they would be cruising back to Government if it wasn't for the hit they took on that issue.

................

Hmm, not so sure that Bertie is such a liability after his performance on the debate last Thursday - although Kenny didn't perform badly, I think Bertie demonstrated he is better Taoiseach material.

The poll gains for FF may be a direct result of Bertie's debate showing, his financial issues do not seem to be a major issue for the voters.

tallyman

Deleted User wrote:

Pardon the puns.

But if the Irish Times poll is accurate, it could be all over, and the next Government will be Fianna Fail and Labour. In which case would it be time for Enda to exit stage right? And presumably Labour in Government with FF will be the end of Pat Rabbitte too, indeed he's got twice the problems as another 5 years in opposition might see a lot of Labour TDs wonder if Pat's strategy of alienating FF was right.

I agree, and the cartoonist below obviously thinks the same as you do!

joecoote

Kenny loses = Kenny's toast. Sure, he said he'd fall on his own sword if he lost.

Rabbite will survive whatever the outcome.

But how about Bertie? Even if he is the next Taoiseach, won't the Tribunals really start to bite. Could we have a lame-duck Taoiseach at best?

DeepBlue

joecoote wrote:

Kenny loses = Kenny's toast.

Could you explain how you come to that conclusion?
FG's seats will go up no matter. They're last election was perhaps their worst ever so logically they can only gain seats.
Kenny has brought them back from the brink, their opinion poll figures are reasonably high as is his satisfaction rating so I honestly can't see why anyone would think he's in any danger .

joecoote wrote:

Sure, he said he'd fall on his own sword if he lost.

He said if he was elected Taoiseach and didn't deliver his contract then he wouldn't look for another mandate which is very different to saying that he'd resign if he didn't win the election.

starman100 wrote:

Hmm, not so sure that Bertie is such a liability after his performance on the debate last Thursday - although Kenny didn't perform badly, I think Bertie demonstrated he is better Taoiseach material.

The poll gains for FF may be a direct result of Bertie's debate showing, his financial issues do not seem to be a major issue for the voters.

I thought Bertie performed much better than Kenny - I'd give it about 60:40 to Bertie but I reckon the poll bounce may well have more to do with his financial issues no longer being the top news story allied with the positive PR from the trip to London. The debate itself was too dull, too long and too boring to really sway many floating voters - I'd say only the masochists really watched it all.

Don't forget though that Bertie's been FF leader for how long now? Cowen must be champing at the bit not to mention the army of FF backbenchers that know they have no chance at promotion if Bertie remains in charge.

Zaph

If FF do get in Bertie might do a Tony Blair and stand aside for a new leader in plenty of time for the next election. Agreeing to do that might even be a condition of Labour joining them, although the last time they did form a coalition with FF was in 1992 and that was incredibly unpopular with Labour supporters and they took a bit of a hammering in the 1997 election.

oscarBravo

tallyman, we get the message. Stop posting that cartoon.

Delphi91

Was I hearing things this evening or did they say on the 4.30 news on TodayFm that Pat Rabbitte suggested that he might go in with FF if it meant keeping SF out of government??

Mike

Seth Brundle

DeepBlue wrote:

Could you explain how you come to that conclusion?
FG's seats will go up no matter. They're last election was perhaps their worst ever so logically they can only gain seats.
Kenny has brought them back from the brink, their opinion poll figures are reasonably high as is his satisfaction rating so I honestly can't see why anyone would think he's in any danger .


He said if he was elected Taoiseach and didn't deliver his contract then he wouldn't look for another mandate which is very different to saying that he'd resign if he didn't win the election.

IIRC FG have a constitution which states that if they lose an election they must get a new leader.
I stand to be corrected on this.

Delphi91 wrote:

Was I hearing things this evening or did they say on the 4.30 news on TodayFm that Pat Rabbitte suggested that he might go in with FF if it meant keeping SF out of government??

I didn't hear that but he did say something like he would not go into coalition with the current government - there are two parties in the current government, not one!!!

DeepBlue

kbannon wrote:

IIRC FG have a constitution which states that if they lose an election they must get a new leader.
I stand to be corrected on this.

I think that after an election they open up the leadership issue but in this case it would just be a formality - Kenny would be re-elected.
IIRC I think the leadership issue is opened regardless of whether they win or lose but I stand to be corrected on this also.

The thing is that there hasn't been any real sniping at Kenny's leadership from any of the front bench. Aside from Bruton could anyone name anyone on the FG frontbench? That's largely why I'd guess he's safe as leader.

If you take the other parties:

• Bertie could get cut loose as part of a deal for coalition with either the Greens or Labour.
• Rabbite could also get shafted if Labour decide to ditch him to get into bed with FF.
• Sargent might get shifted aside as the Greens look for a more convincing performer if the Greens do badly.
• McDowell might lose his seat.

All of the above are more likely IMHO than Kenny getting shafted by FG when they have nobody waiting in the sidelines to take over.