FF/Labour Coalition - Surely Rabitte will step down?

Colonel Sanders

As he seems to have staked his reputation on getting FF out of government surely he cannot lead Labour into a coalition with FF? His credibility will be shot to pieces if so. Worse still for him, will he leave the labour party?

Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere.

gbh

If this situation happens, although I doubt after the election it will happen, I don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell Labour will go into power with Fianna Fail. TBH the other parties don't seem to want to touch FF with a barge pole and I don't blame them. Labour suffered before from going into coalition, PDs are suffering this time from the continuous revelations of Bertie's finances and their unwillingness to declare enough is enough. When you are in power with a big party, there is always a scandal or two coming around the next bend, and strangely, the people blame the smaller party rather than the larger one. This is the fault of a fickle media as much as anything else. So IMO, I don't think the situation will arise.

redspider

I dont think Labour will go into government with FF. Its not just Rabitte's reputation is on the line, its that of the party. They have made their bed as a party with FG and are putting forward am alternative government option. Doing a deal with FF post-election will be seen as something akin to what Sprinig did with Labour after the spring tide 33 seats winfall in 1992. That error and the parties demise subsequent to this is still very very fersh in the memory. So, no deal with FF.

Earlier on in this election run-in, I thought that as the numbers of the 43x constituencies (not the national opinion polls!) were suggesting that a hung Dail would ensue, that a FF minority government supported by Labour would be an option. However, I am now more thinking that with a hung Dail, it would be much more likely for the Green Party to support FF+PD's + some independents, and depending on their 'morals/tactics/strategy', whether to do that within Government and taking ministerial positions or doing it from outside the government and supporting a minority and purpoisely short-lived government.

That all depends on what FF want to do as well. Their decisions may be based on how they read the feeling of the electorate, with focus groups, etc, which can get things wrong.

The post-election situation looks as if it is going to be very interesting indeed.

Redspider

Colonel Sanders

redspider wrote:

The post-election situation looks as if it is going to be very interesting indeed.

agreed. what price a hung dail? from the opposition point o view surely another election is the last thing they will want to see.

Sleepy

If Labour get into bed with FF again, it'll destroy them. The very possibility is swaying me towards placing them lower than FG on my ballot and normally Labour would feature higher in my preferences.

nacho libre

Rabbitte would have to go. If the opportunity for Labour to go into a coalition with Fianna Fail arises the party will back it. The only way Rabbitte could stay is, if Ahern were to resign. I don't see that happening unless there is a major revelation regarding his personal finances. Of course then we'll know who was behind the leaking from the tribunal all along;)

funktastic

It looks a bit like it could be either: FF/PDs/Greens/Independents

or FF/Lab. I'm sure Lab could go into coalition with Brendan Howlin as leader.

swiss

funktastic wrote:

It looks a bit like it could be either: FF/PDs/Greens/Independents

or FF/Lab. I'm sure Lab could go into coalition with Brendan Howlin as leader.

I agree that those two options seem to be the most probable coalition options post the election (pending those results of course). However, I'm not so sure that Labour would go into government even under the leadership of Brendan Howlin. I think in the long term it would be disasterous for the party, just as their previous coalition arrangement with FF after the spring tide of '92 damaged their reputation significantly. As has been pointed out, many people have not forgotten this, and I feel that for Labour to turn around and coalesce with FF would destroy all but their core support. I think Labour are aware of this, and I doubt they would be willing to pay that price for entry into Government.

A possibility, as was raised in last nights Questions and Answers, is that Sinn Féin could vote for Bertie Ahern without a specific pact. This is a concerning possibility, as it would give Sinn Féin the de facto balance of power that they could possibly use to leverage the larger party. Fianna Fáil have said they want to deliver stable government. I can hardly imagine a more unstable arrangement.

funktastic

Yes, but it's probably worse for Labour to be in opposition again. They need to take their chance to be in government in some form.

John R

Colonel Sanders wrote:

As he seems to have staked his reputation on getting FF out of government surely he cannot lead Labour into a coalition with FF? His credibility will be shot to pieces if so. Worse still for him, will he leave the labour party?

Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere.

Pat Rabitte answered this question directly last night on Q&A. He said that he would not lead Labour into a coalition with FF and he would not take a department in a Lab/FF coalition.

He could not state as a fact that the party would refuse a coalition with FF under any circumstances, He said that he didn't want it and that it was very unlikely but as it wouldn't be his decision alone he couldn't guarantee it.

I am sure he would not leave Labour over it, he would respect the majority decision and sit out his term as a backbencher.

Dero

Pat Rabbite also re-stated again today that FF/Lab is not an option.

The above linked article: wrote:

Asked if he would enter Government with Fianna Fáil if the only alternative was for Fianna Fáil to rely on the support of Sinn Féin, Deputy Rabbitte said: “No.”

“I’ve taken a fair amount of criticism when I’ve tried to explain the electoral strategy. Your colleagues say to me ‘Will you please say yes or no?’. And I will — no,” he said.

Voipjunkie

Dero wrote:

Pat Rabbite also re-stated again today that FF/Lab is not an option.

Well if it is a choice of Rabbite leading them for 5 more years in the wilderness on the opposition benches or doing a deal with FF ( with Ahern gone) then my guess is that that old labour will wave goodbye to the DL leadership.
Especially if they have made no improvement electorally under Rabbite.

Unless he could force Kenny and Ahern together then the Labour Party I presume would be happy to sit back and let FF and FG melt together and Labour to lead the opposition

RainyDay

FF/Lab will never be the only option available. There will be the option of an FF/FG coalition to be considered.

gandalf

RainyDay wrote:

FF/Lab will never be the only option available. There will be the option of an FF/FG coalition to be considered.

I don't understand why this option is not discussed more. They are both Centre Right parties. It hard to believe that civil war politics are still effecting this country 85 years after the event.

DadaKopf

gandalf wrote:

I don't understand why this option is not discussed more. They are both Centre Right parties. It hard to believe that civil war politics are still effecting this country 85 years after the event.

I think it's more the way that civil war identities have been inscribed since in other ways. For example, immediately after independence, the newly inaugurated FF quickly established itself in the west and south-west among smallholder farmers and built support, while Cumann na nGaedhal (later FG) appealed more to larger farmers and the middle-classes.

Perhaps people today no longer care about 'civil war politics', but that is not to say the socio-economic consequences of their origins have lost meaning today.

Though some analysts note today that, with a recent break with the traditional 2.5 party system (FF + FG + Labour) signalled in 1989 by the entry of the PDs into government, the FF/FG 'warfare by political means' relationship has all but dissolved.

It's extremely significant that we're even discussing the possibility of a FF/FG coalition today.

Certainly the new party system (possibly in conjunction with our voting system) has introduced a form of policy competition between the 2.5 parties that has certainly made FF and FG nearly indistinguishable from each other.

If a FF/FG coalition were to happen, it'd be more likely at the next election (which may not be far off). But the situation may well have changed again, with a resurgent Labour party, and a vastly consolidated Sinn Féin.

AidoCQS

My granduncle still talks about polling days in North Kerry and gangs of fellows with guns driving around intimidating people... how mad is that!

And I was at a Funeral in North Clare last year and alot of the mourners put on green armbands with FF on em.

I respect the people of latter years, you cannot judge them through our eyes, because in a time of war, loyalty is what was required. Now this blind loyalty is misplaced, I dare say undemocratic.

DadaKopf

Anyway, theres a vague possibility, in the event of an undecisive election result, that Labour could be quickly taken over by Quinn, who is in favour of a Labour/FF coalition (or, at least, not against it).

So, yes, Rabbitte would have to go. That's if Quinn gets elected.

silvine

Rabbitte was on Questions and Answers last Monday and he said he would not lead Labour into a coalition government with FF or serve as a minister in such a coalition.

Mind you if Ahern was replaced and SF was the only alternative coalition partner I bet you would see some hasty horse trading going on between the two.

Gobán Saor

If FF get enough seats to form a viable coalition with SF (or Greens), Labour's negotiating strength with FF will plummet. FF will be able to play off one against the other and Labour will not be able to strike such a good deal on positions and policies as they did in 1992.

RainyDay

gandalf wrote:

I don't understand why this option is not discussed more..

Because creation of a right/left divide in Irish politics (i.e. the same as every other country in Europe) is the nightmare scenario for FF & FG.

Robin1982

Is a FF/Green Government anyway realistic?

leninbenjamin

Robin1982 wrote:

Is a FF/Green Government anyway realistic?

i think so. i'd be surprised if the greens didn't outdo PDs anyway.

i really wish Rabitte never made such a commitment. FG don't inspire any confidence in me at all, whereas i think a FF led govt with Labour looking over their shoulders all the time might not be so bad. maybe Labour would provide the kick FF need to get the public services in order. however i dunno would a labour party without Rabitte at the helm be as promising...

oh well...

Lennoxschips

if the greens did that they'd lose a lot of support

anyway, i don't think any of their policies are compatible with FF, but then FF aren't really a policy driven party, they'll compromise anything to be in charge

nesf

DadaKopf wrote:

Perhaps people today no longer care about 'civil war politics', but that is not to say the socio-economic consequences of their origins have lost meaning today.

Absolutely spot on. Admittedly I grew up in a rural area and that changes things a bit but the FF/FG lines are drawn on socio-economic lines very much. The large farmer versus the publican. But the socio-economic lines are beginning to blur a lot, and I think even this division is being eroded away, especially in "Pope's Children" generation. Increased urbanisation also plays a part.

nesf

Lennoxschips wrote:

if the greens did that they'd lose a lot of support

I don't think so. They haven't strictly ruled out FF at any stage, have been touting themselves as being "kingmakers" and haven't made any real effort to conceal that their priority is to get into Government and get as much of their mandate enacted as possible. That, and people aren't voting Green to oust FF imho.

leninbenjamin

Lennoxschips wrote:

if the greens did that they'd lose a lot of support

I dunno would they. it's better to be in power than in opposition, what's the point of running otherwise? you could say that of almost any party that goes in govt really... it can always go pear shaped.

simu

Stay in opposition for possible future support or go into government for immediate power? Hard choice...

Stargal

The only way I could see Labour going into government with FF would be this: if it happened that the only viable government was Labour/FF, then Lab would have to call a Special Delegates Conference for the members of the party to decide on whether or not to do a deal. I'd speculate that Rabbitte would bring a motion against such a deal, but someone like Howlin would oppose it - then if the motion was carried, Rabbitte would resign, Howlin would take over and they'd go into govt with FF.

This could make it seem like Rabbitte was being true to his word and exiting with his integrity in tact, while Labour could say that they were just doing what's best for government and democracy.

That said, I think the memories of the electoral washout in 1997 still looms large, and there are clearly many in the party who vehemently oppose any kind of deal with FF, which could make it difficult to pass such a motion at a SDC.

Hopefully they'll have enough seats with FG (and possibly Greens) to not have to worry about it.

E92

RainyDay wrote:

Because creation of a right/left divide in Irish politics (i.e. the same as every other country in Europe) is the nightmare scenario for FF & FG.

Exactly, that outcome would be a disaster for both FF and FG. Anyway both FF and FG are slightly right of Centre, the PDs are right wing, Labour are slighly left of Centre, even the Greens and Sinn Fein are starting to move towards the centre too.

There would be uproar within both FF and FG if we were to go in to Government with each other for a start.

The only people that want that to happen are those who are allergic to both FF and FG.

RainyDay

E92 wrote:

There would be uproar within both FF and FG if we were to go in to Government with each other for a start.

The only people that want that to happen are those who are allergic to both FF and FG.

'Uproar' isn't a good reason for not doing it. There would be uproar within Labour and probably within the Greens at any possible deal with FF too.

FF & FG are closer in policy terms than any other pair of parties - why shouldn't they coalesce?

gandalf

E92 wrote:

There would be uproar within both FF and FG if we were to go in to Government with each other for a start.

So its ok for Labour to be forced by the media etc to go into coalition with a party alot of its core supporters (yours truely included) have a serious problem with but FG won't because it will cause "uproar" :rolleyes:

Its about time Politics in this country grew up and the two centre right parties realised the civil war ended over 85 years ago.

So for the good of the country in the long term I reckon FF and FG should merge but in the short term they should go into coalition.