What the H*ll Happened?

joecoote

Right up until this past Sunday I was very interested in this election. I watched the debates. Read the newspapers. Looked up policy documents on the web, and looked at forums. I was weighing the pros and cons of each party. Trying to figure out what parties I wanted to give preferences to, etc.

Then. Bam. The Irish Times opinion poll comes out. A poll that is completely at odds with every poll that preceeded it. By Monday the media are carrying the story that FF is nearly invincible. Only question left: Who will partner FF? By today I'm just apathetic. Anybody else found this?

DaBreno

Nope. Still determinded as ever to change this government.

Come on Democracy!

SeanW

Ditto. Don't like FF/PD?

Then get out there and vote for someone else.

Colonel Sanders

as the cliche goes, the only poll that counts is the one on thursday. Get out in numbers and get FF OUT!!!

gandalf

Well alledgely "Sir Tony" had a meeting with some FF mandarins recently and a "deal" was done. Since then the ING has been singing the praises of a government that they were berating a few weeks previously.

Says alot for the sad state of the media in this country.

il gatto

May I refer you to a thread I started last night which was moved from this forum to News/Media. I feel the media has manipulated the electorate into supporting the incumbant government.

joecoote

Oh, I'm definitely voting. I won't be voting FF for a very local reason - the hospital issue. I wasn't very impressed when I heard that Bertie had skipped a meeting with the faithful in the centre of Monaghan town when he learned that the Hospital Alliance was also there to meet him. Instead he did a runner. Then today on radio he claimed no more cutbacks (etc.) in local healthcare even though he had backed them in the Dáil in March.

However, what is annoying me is the IT poll, the media reaction to it, and how I'm letting it affect me. The poll, so at variance with all before it, seems to have become a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's as if a media stunt has decided the outcome fo the election rather than and informed electorate.

DJDC

I’m not too sure, its nearly worth giving them your vote just to make sure they get the blame for when the economy goes belly up in the next 3-4 years. I have a feeling its going to be very like the conservatives in 1992.They won that election when everyone predicted they wouldn’t, but by 1997 they had become completely unelectable as people gave up on their policies.

However the worrying question is; just what would it take for the significant cohort of the Irish population who vote FF, to switch their allegiance…mass unemployment, environmental and heritage destruction etc.?

Id roughly estimate that 50% of FF voters would vote FF no matter what state the economy was in. However things are changing, albeit slower in backward rural areas. Young people no longer just vote for the family party and actually think about where they want the country going. As the older generation and their parochial tendencies die out, we should see the emergence of a more educated and more evaluative electorate.

il gatto

I don't think rural areas are any worse than urban. I doubt you'd see Bertie missing out in Drumcondra. Farmers have become more issue aware since agriculture has decreased in importance. They're more likeky to dig a bit deeper and vote for the candidates who'll look after their interests than just by age old party ties.

mikemac

It's true, famers can be very organized and certainly know how to use their vote, unlike many people in commuting areas for example.

Fine Gael have a few farmer friendly policies so I reckon they'll do well.
Labours proposal for hillwalkers was a big mistake if they want farmers votes, but they wouldn't get much strong support from farmers anyway so not much lost realy.

DJDC, not sure what you mean by "backward rural areas".:eek:

AidoCQS

joecoote wrote:

Right up until this past Sunday I was very interested in this election. I watched the debates. Read the newspapers. Looked up policy documents on the web, and looked at forums. I was weighing the pros and cons of each party. Trying to figure out what parties I wanted to give preferences to, etc.

Then. Bam. The Irish Times opinion poll comes out. A poll that is completely at odds with every poll that preceeded it. By Monday the media are carrying the story that FF is nearly invincible. Only question left: Who will partner FF? By today I'm just apathetic. Anybody else found this?

Got that too, snapping out of it though, now I am more determined to have my say

PH01

That's what happens at election time.
At a week or 5 days to go to polling is the real time when the undecided or wavering make up their minds on how they will vote. And anything that happens at this time crystalises the vote.

This happen 2002. FF were quietly heading for a majority before McDowell went up the poll. Did it happen this time as well? We'll only know for sure how things have turned out on Friday. But at this stage we could say that the 'debates' on last Wednesday and Thursday with their high viewing figures has had a great influence on the electorate. The 'No Thanks' posters and Bertie appearing all presidential in Westminster may also have been factors in turning opinion around to favour the government parties.

Will all of the above change things on count day? Probably not or just slightly. Some events are more or less certain - we're going to get a hung Dail. FF will be lucky get 72 seats, 68 or 70 look likely. FG will recover their losses from 2002. LAB aren't going to do as well as they hope. The Greens and SF look like the power brokers by doubling their numbers. The PDs will be lucky to get 3 seats. And the others will be making up the numbers.

Nobody is predicting that the present government will be returned. The Alternative doesn't look like they are at the races either. So it looks like that the next government will contain FF and whoever is prepared to crawl into bed with them.

Money Shot

joecoote wrote:

Then. Bam. The Irish Times opinion poll comes out. A poll that is completely at odds with every poll that preceeded it. By Monday the media are carrying the story that FF is nearly invincible. Only question left: Who will partner FF? By today I'm just apathetic. Anybody else found this?

I have to say - this shocked me too, and I feel your pain. However, I do think(hope) that the polls don't reflect the true position. I think that a lot of people who would not normally vote, will vote tomorrow to show their protestation to Bertie and Co.

To re-elect FF after the last five years would be incredulous.

gandalf

gandalf wrote:

Well alledgely "Sir Tony" had a meeting with some FF mandarins recently and a "deal" was done. Since then the ING has been singing the praises of a government that they were berating a few weeks previously.

Says alot for the sad state of the media in this country.

BTW here are a few links to this.

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/northernirelandassembly/story/0,,2062990,00.html

http://blogorrah.com/campaign-07-tone-picks-cheeky-divil.html

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/ireland/2007/0523/1179498645746.html

Makes one wonder what was "Sir" Tony promised by Fianna Fail???

redspider

> By today I'm just apathetic. Anybody else found this?

I can empathise with your situation. The media bleats on and on at times as if matters are a fait accompli. Well, its hard, but we should as individuals never let the media influence our votes. It seems difficult and at times pointless to go against what seems like a majority.

However, there are many problems with our National Opinion Polls. For one, they are not accurate. That one had a +/- 4% error of margin. This is a huge error of margin for the smaller parties, such as the PD's who were measured on 2%. The 2% figure is meaningless in a way as the PD's support is in small pockets and is personality based, by and large. Likewise, FF really was between 45% and 37%. Using a candlestick set of measures and a poll of polls study would reveal perhaps more accurate trends.

The polls in Ireland are not an accurate reflection of the outcome nor can they be, yet the media give them far too much credence. They are lacking in scientific approach and statistical accuracy. A National Opinion poll is pointless since we are not holding a national single constituency vote. We are holding 43x constituency votes, each with its own vagaries and localisms and personalities and history.

The other thing to think about is that FF+PD was 43%. This is by no means a majority, even taking into consideration how the national poll does not equate to the 43x individual constituencies.

The most important thing for ALL individuals is to VOTE, and vote with as much information as you can, and with your convictions, whether you are FF, FG, Lab, GP, SF, PD, Independent or other. And dont be put off by what other people have said or havent said, especially the media. The media is not impartial, not even RTE at times who are legally obligated to be so with their charter, yet I have never seen them brought up before a court - ever!

PH01 wrote:

Some events are more or less certain - we're going to get a hung Dail. FF will be lucky get 72 seats, 68 or 70 look likely. FG will recover their losses from 2002. LAB aren't going to do as well as they hope. The Greens and SF look like the power brokers by doubling their numbers. The PDs will be lucky to get 3 seats. And the others will be making up the numbers.

Well, nothing is certain. A hung Dail looks likely and that is what I am expecting, but it is not more or less certain. FG may not recover as many losses as they expect. Labour, for all their positioning as an alternative, may not be able to convert a slight increase in votes to an meaningful increase in seats. GP and SF will be likely seat winners, although SF may not gain as much as people originally thought. Predicting the demise of the PD's is like predicting the time of a rain shower next Tue. It may or may not happen. Indeed, the PD's have survived over the years for far longer than most analysts would have expected them to. They get the 'keep FF in line' voters as well as others.

It is a close one though most likely so an interesting one.

I wouldnt be surprised if we have to vote again after the summer.

Redspider

daveirl

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gandalf

Naw part of the OP was about the Irish Times and then they mentioned the media, so its fair game.

daveirl

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Nevyn

You have to look at how the presented the figure and they were sly enough about it.

seamus

I'm always skeptical of any poll that arrives out during these campaigns. I don't trust any of the papers, broadsheet or tabloid, to be impartial at this late stage.

It may also though be a shot in the foot, if there was an intention to make it look good for FF. Non-FF voters who may have been apathetic about voting may now feel that their vote counts, and will participate, whereas FF voters in the same position may stay apathetic because they think it's in the bag.

However it plays out, it's going to be a close one

jem

I am stunned, The IT has been against FF for decades, to say that they spinned FOR the most successful inter party Govt in the history of the state is mind boggling.
IF there was spin I would suggest that it was to try and get the Rainbow crew out to vote. I would also suggest that there has been a bias against Bertie in the print media for the whole of the election. Take today’s Indo for example it has a smiling Enda out meeting people and a serious glum looking Bertie taking from a serious debate.

I agree that the vote will be very tight and would love to see the internal polls carried out by the main parties, in general they are in fact more accurate and they are done constituency by constituency.

gbh

To be honest, opinion polls are gimmicks which sell newspapers, but don't tell us a lot about parties policies or who would be best at running the country. I'd say if you took a poll on a wet miserable day, the government would do badly and the opposition well, and if you took a poll on a nice sunny day, the government would do well, or something to that effect. As well as that, I'd like to know if anyone on Boards has ever been approached for a political opinion poll?

So is the premise of this thread that the people vote according to the way the media tell them?

I doubt that.
Most people aren't eejits,they'll vote for whatever is best for them combined with a lessening party or family or local loyalty.

Mind you some are.

Last nights 5-7 live was an example where "young people" in Dublin of voting age were asked at random what they thought of the parties.

A lot of them had trouble knowing who enda kenny is,who is the taoiseach is etc and as for the greens they have something to do with the environment don't they...
It was frightening.
And people say americans are thicko's

daveirl

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joecoote

gbh wrote:

. . .As well as that, I'd like to know if anyone on Boards has ever been approached for a political opinion poll?

Good question. No.

About the poll itself. I don't buy any conspiracy theories, and even if I did what could anyone to about it. However, I think its had an impact and the media reaction has furthered the impact. If the poll was a true reflection of opinion, we will never know if the vote reflects the poll. We have to take the poll at its face value. If the vote doesn't reflect the poll, we'll know it was flawed or biased in some way.

If the poll was flaw or biased but the vote reflects the poll, we will never know it. This is what annoys me. In other words, did a flawed or biased poll influence enough voters to make the poll appear valid in the end?

daveirl

daveirl wrote:

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Oh I agree with you there aswell.
This is everybodies country like it or lump it, so if the majority want something posters here don't well hey thats life.

Glenbhoy

Tristrame wrote:

Oh I agree with you there aswell.
This is everybodies country like it or lump it, so if the majority want something posters here don't well hey thats life.

Say the poll on monday turns out to be acurate and FF get 41%, is that a majority??

JonnyXXX

They wont get a majority at 41% and they wont get 41%.

We all have to get out there and ensure that it doesnt happen. We have to get FF out. they are corrupt and so so arrogant. That 97% v 3% advertisement topped it off for me. They are detestable.

Tricity Bendix

Glenbhoy wrote:

Say the poll on monday turns out to be acurate and FF get 41%, is that a majority??

Based on our PR system and the likelihood of a seat bounce, the answer is 'not likely'. However, if the PDs scrape in a couple more seats than they are expected, we could see a return of the current government. The FF gene pool independents are drying up, but they could also play a role just like in 97.