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General Election Betting 2007

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  • 23-05-2007 4:16am
    #1
    Robin1982
    Closed Accounts Posts: 323 ✭✭


    Been taking a look at the various markets on bookmakers websites and the betting exchanges out there - not too much liquidity on the latter quite yet but it seems you could get a price should you be patient. The amounts to back/lay are still small though.

    As for the current opportunities, a few caught my eye.

    The big market is the Next Government market (current Paddy Power | Best Available odds):

    FF/LAB 9/4 | 3.3
    FG/LAB/GP 5/2 | 4.1
    FF/GP 7/2 | 7.6
    (don't rate the others)

    I really think the next Government is going to be either FF/LAB or FF/GP (betting excludes Independents). If that price on FF/GP held up on Betfair, I may be interested as a possible trade (odds much shorter in all other places and I think the Greens will do well, maybe 10 seats) but in all honesty, I see a FF/LAB government and would rate it fair value about 7/4 (2.75).

    As for other markets, Paddy Power had a market (but it seems to have disappeared from their site) about betting on how many seats the PDs will win. Personally I think the PDs could have a terrible election with the possibility of only 2 seats.

    PP had 10-11 3 seats or less which I was about to jump all over but not sure if thats still on.

    I think William Hill still have that market and have the 3 or less at 8/11.

    On the Betfair, the market is different with the bottom part being 4 seats or less. Yesterday I could have backed that at 1.6 for about €100 but foolishly waited. Seems someone has been hoovering up any back price available (even down to 1.3 for some reason) so I'll wait some more.

    For an alternative betting opportunity, SportsSpread have 3.2 - 3.8 so a sell at 3.2 for €100 a point, would mean a 6/5 (2.2) bet if the PDs won 2 seats, 11/5 (3.2) should they win just the one, and 1/5 (1.2) if they win (IMO a maximum) 3 seats. Perhaps I should do this...

    Does anyone have any other bets or criticisms...?


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  • Options
    #2
    Robin1982
    Closed Accounts Posts: 323 ✭✭Robin1982


    UPDATE: I ended up taking that FF/Greens 7.6 bet; hopefully I'll get a worthwhile trade out of it.


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    #3
    county
    Registered Users Posts: 6,800 ✭✭✭county


    here you go
    http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&disp_cat_id=31&ev_class_id=33&ev_type_id=694


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    #4
    hotspur
    Registered Users Posts: 2,327 ✭✭✭hotspur


    I have a bet on Brendan Howlin to be the next Tanaiste at 9/1 on the reasoning that FF/Lab will do a deal with Labour saying it's to keep out SF, and Rabbitte stepping down as a matter of integrity due to his opposition to sharing with FF. Probably not huge value in it but then there really is no value to be had with PaddyPower's election odds at all.


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    #5
    Robin1982
    Closed Accounts Posts: 323 ✭✭Robin1982


    hotspur wrote:
    I have a bet on Brendan Howlin to be the next Tanaiste at 9/1 on the reasoning that FF/Lab will do a deal with Labour saying it's to keep out SF, and Rabbitte stepping down as a matter of integrity due to his opposition to sharing with FF. Probably not huge value in it but then there really is no value to be had with PaddyPower's election odds at all.

    I was thinking of doing that bet too until Rabbitte's recent backtracking comments - I think he's too popular a Labour leader to step down even if they go into government with FF.

    You only have to look at the previous pre-election "categorical denials" of Spring, O'Malley et al to show that these kind of statements are fairly empty.


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