Big Name Casualties

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

DadaKopf

LostinBlanch wrote:

Ivan Yates disagrees with you. He reckons that Lucinda Creighton will top the poll and this will hurt McDowell [fingers crossed] who only gets votes from disaffected FGers seeing as this is natural FG territory. McDowell out! *Touch wood*

Mary Harney to keep her seat as her constituency is now a 4 seater

I think Yates may be right. Although Quinn has been conspicuous by his absence, there are very strange anomolies which might hurt McDowell.

The anomaly is this: many Dublin SE voters (particularly Donnybrook, Ranelagh, Ballsbridge, Rathmines) vote both Green and PD.

But I think (hope) the electorate has become a bit more sophisticated this time around and become sick of McDowell. In which case, it's very likely that those traditional PD/Green voters will give their PD preference instead to Lucinda Creighton (FG). There's the added bonus of Barry Andrews being a blow-in and an unknown quanity, which might diminish the FF vote.

I can't figure out my strategy though. I'm thinking Quinn #1, Gormley #2, Creighton #3. My rationale being, (1) I want Ireland to move away from a 2-party system; (2) even if Quinn is eliminated, my transfers go to the Greens who I'd like to see in government either way; (3) since Gormley is likely to get a surplus, my vote may then transfer to Creighton.

Problem is, if I vote for Quinn, that's it for my ballot.

Any suggestions?

burnedfaceman

upmeath wrote:

I saw that driving home through Castleknock this evening, the Doc must be quite confident, would I be right in saying he got the highest number of first preferences in the State in the local elections of 2004? Could be on course for junior ministry in health if FG get into power?

yes you would be right in saying he polled highest in local elections, i have heard that higgins is in trouble and would love to see FG/Lab gain two seats here

FTA69

DeVore wrote:

I will be heading to his political grave with a big bag of yokes and the Now Thats What I Call Techno 1,274 compilation CD.

Small fellas are filthy things.

dereko1969

burnedfaceman wrote:

yes you would be right in saying he polled highest in local elections, i have heard that higgins is in trouble and would love to see FG/Lab gain two seats here

i think higgins is safe, given his huge profile in helping people dealing with management companies in the new estates, i know he's getting my sisters vote who would previously have voted either labour/fine gael so i reckon joan burton will lose out unfortunately, whatever about her voice she knows her stuff.

burnedfaceman

i voted this morning varadkar/burton/higgins i would like to see the three of them go through but id imagine lenihan will retain seat dont know why as he has done sweet FA for the area. i got a letter from lenihan in the door this morning in which he plans to address issues such as education facilities, public transport and developing the hospital in blanchardstown. what a joke he has done nothing to address any of these topics from what i can see. higgins and burton have always raised awareness of the area from dail oireachtas reports i have seen. i wish to see an alternative government and i believe higgins will always be in opposition and hence my low preference for him. sure can only see what happens now but i think varadkar will definitely win a seat for FG here and other one will be fought out between higgins and burton.

LostinBlanch

DadaKopf wrote:

I think Yates may be right. Although Quinn has been conspicuous by his absence, there are very strange anomolies which might hurt McDowell.

The anomaly is this: many Dublin SE voters (particularly Donnybrook, Ranelagh, Ballsbridge, Rathmines) vote both Green and PD.

But I think (hope) the electorate has become a bit more sophisticated this time around and become sick of McDowell. In which case, it's very likely that those traditional PD/Green voters will give their PD preference instead to Lucinda Creighton (FG). There's the added bonus of Barry Andrews being a blow-in and an unknown quanity, which might diminish the FF vote.

I can't figure out my strategy though. I'm thinking Quinn #1, Gormley #2, Creighton #3. My rationale being, (1) I want Ireland to move away from a 2-party system; (2) even if Quinn is eliminated, my transfers go to the Greens who I'd like to see in government either way; (3) since Gormley is likely to get a surplus, my vote may then transfer to Creighton.

Problem is, if I vote for Quinn, that's it for my ballot.

Any suggestions?

Vote tactically i.e. all the way down the ballot paper leaving out those candidates / parties that you don't want to get in.

Be The Holy

Varadkar has no intention of giving up his job as a doctor and is supposedly training as a consultant. How he can do the two jobs and represent the constituency effectively? I wont fall for any of his lion bar gimmicks!! Burton has consistently exposed tax dodgers and it would be a true pity to lose her.

jjbrien

Donnie Cassidy is on the way out. At least we wont see in and his silly wig anymore.

Zebra3

McDowell and/or Harney to go.

I heard people in Harney's camp expect to be out of a job soon.

Fingers crossed.

ateam

Zebra3 wrote:

McDowell and/or Harney to go.

I heard people in Harney's camp expect to be out of a job soon.

Fingers crossed.

Hate to disappoint you but the constituency she's in is expanding from a three seat to a four seat constituency. So with that in mind, it is very unlikely that she'll lose her seat.

Money Shot

Be The Holy wrote:

Varadkar has no intention of giving up his job as a doctor and is supposedly training as a consultant. How he can do the two jobs and represent the constituency effectively? I wont fall for any of his lion bar gimmicks!! Burton has consistently exposed tax dodgers and it would be a true pity to lose her.

Please see the other thread about Varadkar being a part time TD. Someone contacted him, and he has already given up his medical job to assume full time politics. He WILL be a full time TD.

It's a real dog fight in Dublin West. Of all the big names to loose a seat, I would love to see Brian Lenihan loose out. He hasn't done anything whatsoever that I could see campaign wise, a bit like the last five years, where he has done absolutely nothing for the area.

I don't understand politics whereby certain people seem to be guaranteed their seats regardless of performance. I'd like to see Higgins retain his seat, and I'd like to see if Vardakar is all spin (which I suspect) or if he will make a decent public representative. Joan Burton desereves the last seat a lot more than Lenihan. I'm not so sure if she will loose out - I think Higgins could be under more pressure now that the constituency has been re organised.

Jackie Healy Rae.

Hopefully...

The Sparrow

DadaKopf wrote:

There's the added bonus of Barry Andrews being a blow-in and an unknown quanity, which might diminish the FF vote.

Barry Andrews is running in Dun Laoghaire Rathdown and I would imagine he would be one of the favourites there.

You probably mean his cousin, Chris Andrews?

I hope McDowell gets booted out... Boy would that be sweet...:D

BoozyBabe

God, I hope that Fat Fcuk Harney loses her seat, but no boubt she won't!!!

upmeath

jjbrien wrote:

Donnie Cassidy is on the way out. At least we wont see in and his silly wig anymore.

Yeah I read an article in this week's Meath Chronicle, his entire support has been merged into Meath West while he runs in Longford/Westmeath. Is it a bad choice on his part or were party HQ keen to stop him splitting the Brady/Dempsey vote in MW? His supporters in Coole reckon he's lost 2000 votes there because of the constituency redraw, which puts Mary O'Rourke in a very healthy position and leaves him starting on the back foot in a constituency he doesn't even live in. It'll be very interesting to see how that turns out.

Meath East to elect Shane McEntee, Dominic Hannigan and Mary Wallace, in that order
Meath West to return Noel Dempsey and Damien English with Peter Higgins/Graham Geraghty grabbing a second seat for FG. Go on Inda!

P.S. Does anybody see Labour gaining from SF in Kerry North? I'd love to see Martin Ferris go! Terry O'Brien is running on a ticket which highlights the needs of the disabled and other health/welfare issues, I'd love to see him take the seat there.

Our man in Havana

Harney has probably the only secure PD seat in the country. Her constituency has been expanded from 3 to 4 seats. I can't see her going.

Now Tom Parlon is a different story. All but gone. He even sent me a text this morning begging me to vote for him.

ArthurDent

I'd love to see Harney and McDowell out, but will settle for one of them. Also would be quite happy to see Healy Rae and Beverly Flynn dissappear from the dail

Carcharodon

Deleted User wrote:

Jackie Healy Rae.

Hopefully...

Ive been discussing him with a couple of people that are from that area and they having nothing but good things to say about him to be fair. He gets things done and is always available to help people.
Granted he may not seem like he is up to much but there are alot worse out there to be fair.

upmeath

Money Shot wrote:

It's a real dog fight in Dublin West. Of all the big names to loose a seat, I would love to see Brian Lenihan loose out. He hasn't done anything whatsoever that I could see campaign wise, a bit like the last five years, where he has done absolutely nothing for the area

[edited - bloody eejit you never name someone like that on this forum - banned]

AidoCQS

I would love to see an end to the big family names, you know they gang that have the job their daddy or mommy did. FF have two running in North Kerry. McEllistrim & Foley - I mean look what happened when Bush Jnr. took over.

Healy Rae has a gang of them following up...

But then they are running for FF, dont have to have an origional thought in their head do they, just toe the party line

Victor

scooby_doo_no1 wrote:

im from Dub SE and only Jim OCallaghan has come a knocking on doors?! seems decent enough, will prob give him number one. McDowell, meh... Ruari Quinn, I think his time has passed and that Lucinda Creighton, she's not a constitutency politician and i have never heard of her until last year - she seems to have never visited the south city so she wont be getting my vote, or at least very low down the list...

Creighton is a councillor. http://www.dublincity.ie/your_council/councillors/councillor_lucinda_creighton.asp

DadaKopf wrote:

The anomaly is this: many Dublin SE voters (particularly Donnybrook, Ranelagh, Ballsbridge, Rathmines) vote both Green and PD.

But I think (hope) the electorate has become a bit more sophisticated this time around and become sick of McDowell. In which case, it's very likely that those traditional PD/Green voters will give their PD preference instead to Lucinda Creighton (FG).

Dublin SE is traditional FG territory - apparently there were 3 FG seats out of 4 in the 1980s. McDowell promised to keep an eye on FF. Maybe he did, but the voters assumed "keeping an eye on" would mean he would also do something about them.

nurse_baz wrote:

the word out here is that Varadkar will take joan Burtons seat. He's been pretty visible around here and as of about 10 mins ago was out on the road sticking thank you stickers over his posters.

Creighton had this done this morning. I suspect many FG will have done it. There was also the hand written (copied) letter in the letter box last night.

seamus

I can't see Harney losing her seat in Mid West. Despite the health situation, a lot of people respect her for her hard stance with the unions, so she may get votes from people who don't necessarily support the PDs.

FF are in trouble in Dublin Mid West I would say, even Lenihan. FF got annihilated in the last local elections out here, they lost all of their councillors in Lucan.

murphaph

Victor wrote:

Creighton had this done this morning. I suspect many FG will have done it. There was also the hand written (copied) letter in the letter box last night.

I got that too. Obviously it's not Varadkar's own script-he's a doctor but it's legible!

besty

I have a funny feeling Mary Hanafin will lose out in Dun Laoighre/Rathdown.

besty

besty wrote:

I have a funny feeling Mary Hanafin will lose out in Dun Laoighre/Rathdown.

One can only hope.

gandalf

Lovely Liz "Photoshop" O'Donnell is probably a goner in Dublin South.

burnedfaceman

yeah id have to agree, mitchell, ryan, shatter and brennan will probably take seats there. i dont know why everyone harps on about her being good lucking shes not! i barely recognised her on Q&A the other night compared to election posters... well actually i suppose you could consider her gorgeous in comparison to a certain PD former leader who has the bulk to prop for ireland:D

LostinBlanch

murphaph wrote:

I got that too. Obviously it's not Varadkar's own script-he's a doctor but it's legible!

Best post of the day. Can't say that he's impressed me at all. But you never know he could get in.

burnedfaceman

burnedfaceman wrote:

yeah id have to agree, mitchell, ryan, shatter and brennan will probably take seats there.

Kitt to take the final spot?