sponge bobs election prediction galway west

Sponge Bob

Based on my reading of tea leaves and the whisperings of the leaves on the trees and seeing the way the sun shines on the stone walls.

The same 5 will be re-elected.

The 2 variables at the outset IMO were connolly vs higgins and o brolchain vs mccormack or grealish

connolly was too low key to get ahead of higgins and will transfer largely to him when eliminated

O Brolchain tripped himself up over the bypass , he should have finessed his opposition to it and he presented no realistic alternative to it ...light rail is 10 years away by which time Galway will have gridlocked and he as mayor knows that ....and a free school bus system would relieve the gridlock immediately thereby reducing the imperative for the bypass and giving himself space to prove its not needed.

So no change

PopeBuckfastXVI

I find it incredible that somewhere like Galway that prides itself on it's artistic, hi-co, liberal temperment returns 4 right wing TD's out of 5.

I would have thought we should be returning 3 left wingers and 2 right wingers. It must be true that Hippehs don't vote.

I should get this t-shirt and wear it about the place...
http://www.tshirthell.com/store/product.php?productid=374

sgthighway

Eamonn O Cuiv (FF)
Padraic McCormack (FG)
Frank Fahy (FF)
Michael D. Higgins (Labour)
Noel Grealish (PD)

TerrorFirmer

Michael D got my vote - I was trying to cross the road yesterday and incidentally we were actually just talking about him, and a guy lets me cross - none other then Michael D himself. What a star.

toiletduck

I reckon it will be the same 5 as 2002.

HavoK wrote:

Michael D got my vote - I was trying to cross the road yesterday and incidentally we were actually just talking about him, and a guy lets me cross - none other then Michael D himself. What a star.

He bought your vote! :eek:

Sponge Bob

He obviously spotted a vote and slowed down to smile and wave at it , what were you wearing Havok ???

Robbo

I reckon the first 4 seats will be the same as last time out, with O'Cuiv (sorry, Cuiv, O) at the top.

The competition for the last seat will be between O'Brolchain and Grealish. For all his recent bluster about bypasses and Garda stations, you can't say that Grealish has been great on the national stage. It's all well and good standing at Carnmore cross and telling them how you're going to give the jackeens what for but he's been largely silent in 5 years on Kildare St.

O'Brolchain has had a steady rise since taking the mayorship but a couple of setbacks with the water and the bypass.

Sponge Bob, I can't see where you got the idea that one of the (largely interchangeable) Connolly sisters was ever in contention.

ARGINITE

toiletduck wrote:

Quote:
Originally Posted by HavoK
Michael D got my vote - I was trying to cross the road yesterday and incidentally we were actually just talking about him, and a guy lets me cross - none other then Michael D himself. What a star.

He bought your vote!

Brings to mind the phrase: how far for a fiver?

Sponge Bob

Robbo wrote:

O'Brolchain has had a steady rise since taking the mayorship but a couple of setbacks with the water and the bypass.

I would forgive him the water but the bypass was self inflicted. I fear terminally for his chances of election. Grealish will sneak in again.

Sponge Bob, I can't see where you got the idea that one of the (largely interchangeable) Connolly sisters was ever in contention.

Catherine is a very good self publicist and one should never underestimate a well run campaign appleaing to the Mná and to the city vote . Had this been done she could well have finished a netch ahead of Miceal D and gotten his transfers. She will quietly slide back into Labour by the autumn but the lack of vigour means she is no longer the chosen one to replace Michael D ...at the next election perhaps.

Its all academic now as she did not campaign vigourously or steal any headlines and will end up transferring to Michael D instead of the other way round.

Cox will be lucky to exceed 1000 votes , I would estimate 1200-1500 for Catherine .

Quota about 8000 and last one elected will be on about 6000 . I cannot see O Brolcháin pick up 6000 at the end. Walshes 2500 will largely go to Welby or O Cuiv.

To end up with 6000 O Brolcháin will need 5000 first prefs .

Lasht time out results here .

http://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2002&cons=129

dloob

I'd say your right spongebob the top 4 are certainly secure and I'd say 5 will swing the way of the PDs, but it will be really close.

Now I must remember to give Cox a preference to try and get her ahead of Connolly. Not impressed by the objections to the airshow or toys out of the pram reaction to losing a vote in council. Sorry Catherine.

Kazooie

Aapperntly Frank Fahey is going to lose a lot of votes to Crowe. Still think it'll be the same 5 though.

padi89

Il go for Ming........:rolleyes:

Sponge Bob

Crowe will not exceed 3000 and Fahey will get a lot more votes than that. Over 4000 anyway .

Fahey will be elected when Crowe is eliminated .

3greenrizla's

anyone know who Thomas King is,

http://www.mycandidate.ie/candidate.php?cid=466

even google let me down, he must be good

snubbleste

I think Ó Brolcháin has a good chnce of being elected given that he polled 2193 votes in 2002 against Grealish's 2735 votes. He has a much higher profile this time around and will attract transfers from all parties.
Otherwise the other 4 will remain.

Can anyone turn up at the count in the Sports centre tomorrow, just to watch?

toiletduck

Can anyone tell me what Ó Brolcháin means in English?! It's bugging me all day.

Sponge Bob

It means Zbigniewskewpadski in Polish so it does, anybody may turn up at the count after about 4pm fri when the tallys are done.

finlma

3greenrizla's wrote:

anyone know who Thomas King is,

http://www.mycandidate.ie/candidate.php?cid=466

even google let me down, he must be good

The first I heard of him was when I saw his name on the ballot paper today - he doesn't even have a picture and he's down as "Farmer" on it.

He got my number 8 - rather him (whoever he is) than any FF/PD/SF.

PopeBuckfastXVI

Everyones predicting a massive PD backlash across the country, I'd love to see a Green vote knock out Grealish. Some have said (pos. newstalk) that Tom Parlon will be the only PD TD in the Dáil by next week.

Anyway this post is also a place holder for me to Edit on Sunday with my "Predictions" so I look like a right smarty pants!

dloob

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote:

Everyones predicting a massive PD backlash across the country, I'd love to see a Green vote knock out Grealish. Some have said (pos. newstalk) that Tom Parlon will be the only PD TD in the Dáil by next week.

Parlon! I don't mind the PDs, but I'd love to see Parlon lose his seat.

I was surprised by the King fellow not an mention of him or a poster to be seen up until today. Then there he was on the ballot. I'll make a bold prediction that he won't get in.

toiletduck

Pfft, he'll top the poll so he will*

*if he exists

Sponge Bob

initial tally

city boxes only

o brolchain not as strong as expected , crowe stronger than expected .

no green seat and will we see a ff/pd showdown for the last seat instead ??

toiletduck

Where are you hearing that?

Sponge Bob

by text but coming up on tv in 5-10 mins

http://www.rte.ie/live/index.html

sgthighway

120 of the 143 Boxes opened in Galway West
Cuiv 7356
Michael D 4738
Frank Fahy 4432
Padraic McCormack 4118
Michael Crowe 4043
Noel Grealish 3351
Fidelama Healy Haemes 2517
Niall O'B 2402
Catherine Connolly 1493
M Cox 1471

Most of the Town Boxes opened
Connemara boxes and Oranmore Boxes still been counted

Sponge Bob

Final Tally from RTE

FF 38%, FG 20%, LAB 11%, PD 16%, GP 6%, SF 3%, IND 7%

Wonder if Crowe will shift Fahey , he did a lot better than I thought he would

1. O Cuiv 9355 (surplus of 600 approx)
2. Fahey 5681
3. Grealish 5606
4. Higgins 5554
5. McCormack 4951
6. Crowe 4653
7. Healy Eames 3752
8. O Brolchain 2836
9. Connolly 1871
10 Welby 1720
11. Kyne 1798
12. Cox 1628
13. Carroll 1498
14. Lyons 1081
15. King 65

Quota 8700
PD total = 8400
FF Total = 19600
FG Total = 10500
Labour 5500 but will pick up a lot of O Brolchain and Connolly (2/3 of each ) so thats a quota more or less .

All my predictions were 1/3 below outturn but the big surprise is that Crowe is so close to Fahey and with lots of city candidates to be eliminated ...City votes do not travel

Kazooie

Sponge Bob wrote:

Wonder if Crowe will shift Fahey , he did a lot better than I thought he would

What did I tell ya!;)

Sponge Bob

a sweaty 48 hours ahead of Fahey I think. Crowe has done very very well for someone who failed pass english in the leaving cert .

Sure he could be helping run the country next :eek:

snubbleste

First count - Galway West
Quota 9183

O Cuiv 9645
Higgins 6086
Fahey 5854
Grealish 5806
McCormack 5419
Crowe 4969
Healy Eames 3904
O Brolcháin 3026
Connolly 2006
Kyne 1912
Welby 1894
Cox 1718
Carroll 1629
Lyons 1168
King 60

Suprised at Grealish's vote..impressive.

Sponge Bob

first count

quota 9163

o cuiv 9645
higgins 6086
fahey 5854
grealish 5806
mccormack 5419
crowe 4969

etc , a crap tally that was by Galway standards.

FF 4% down on their 2002 showing

snubbleste

Tallies were out a bit by 500 votes in the case of Higgins