Exit polls and paddypower.com

Gobán Saor

Paddypower.com has now suspended all betting on the election. Odds on the FF/Lab, FF/Green, FF/PD and FF/SF combos were falling all day. Odds on FG/Lab/Green combo lengthening all day. Does paddy have contacts with the exit pollsters, I wonder?

AidoCQS

They have an exit poll of sorts online

Lennoxschips

will national exit polls be published at 10:30 pm or will we have to wait until tomorrow?

misterq

I'm putting together an online exit poll. Just gathering votes now. If anyone wants to add theirs, please do so here: www.quirkeye.com/poll/

Early days yet, only about 50 votes logged. Will publish results once more data gathered.
Don't add your vote if you added your vote to the first 5 pages of the Politics.ie exit poll online thread: yours have already been counted!

_blank_

There are only three candidates in the Dublin NC part. Maher, McDowell, McGrath.

None of the others are appearing in the drop down thing.

misterq

If you type them in, they will be added to the drop down list for the next person.

I'm doing it that way as I don't have time to type in all the candidates myself!

mike65

the RTE exit poll is yours at.....7 am!

Mike.

JackieChan

According to Radio 1's 11 o'clock news RTE have an exit poll that will be released at 7am in the morning

seamus

The Paddy Power one is interesting.

It would seem that neither pairings of FF/PD or FG/Lab will have enough to make it. The fight may come down to who the Greens choose to ally with.

mike65

Could the Greenies possibly consider FF? Hardly.

Mike

Robin1982

mike65 wrote:

Could the Greenies possibly consider FF? Hardly.

Mike

I hope so - backed FF/Green Gov (excl. Inds) this week on Betfair. Fingers crossed.

Raiser

seamus wrote:

The Paddy Power one is interesting.

It would seem that neither pairings of FF/PD or FG/Lab will have enough to make it. The fight may come down to who the Greens choose to ally with.

As of right now FF/PD = 39% & FG/LAB=40% :eek:

- Am chewing my knuckles to bloody masses of bone and cartilage right now

leninbenjamin

can't go by the paddy power one at all, it allows you to vote as many times as you want.

seamus

leninbenjamin wrote:

can't go by the paddy power one at all, it allows you to vote as many times as you want.

Yeah but why would you? You're not going to have any kind of effect on anything. Except a single poll...

leninbenjamin

seamus wrote:

Yeah but why would you? You're not going to have any kind of effect on anything. Except a single poll...

i accidently did trying to refresh the damn thing after a while it wont let me look the results again unless i vote, which is kind of annoying.

Raiser

seamus wrote:

Yeah but why would you? You're not going to have any kind of effect on anything. Except a single poll...

By the same token, should I be sorry I got off the couch to vote earlier on

thelepo

One thing I wanted to point out about the Paddy Power poll and other online poll is that you must take into account the fact that the parties that represent the wealthier portions of society are going to be over represented in these polls. This will be the case because the wealthier you are, the more likely it will be that you have a computer and broadband access at home, hence the obviously incorrect 8% attributed to the PD's. Internet exit polls are completely skewered, as they do not take personal economic situation into account

Lennoxschips

leninbenjamin wrote:

can't go by the paddy power one at all, it allows you to vote as many times as you want.

sounds like a fair reflection of the election so...

misterq

agreed, if you look at numbers in so far, they look way off base:

FG: 26.01%
FF: 19.32%
LAB: 19.21%
GP: 14.78%
IND: 6.64%
SF: 5.63%
PD: 3.23%
SWP: 2.2%
PBP: 1.17%
FRR: 0.31%
CSP: 0%

http://www.quirkeye.com/poll/

John R

misterq wrote:

agreed, if you look at numbers in so far, they look way off base:

FG: 26.01%
FF: 19.32%
LAB: 19.21%
GP: 14.78%
IND: 6.64%
SF: 5.63%
PD: 3.23%
SWP: 2.2%
PBP: 1.17%
FRR: 0.31%
CSP: 0%

http://www.quirkeye.com/poll/

An internet users poll is never going to be an accurate reflection of national figures.

PoolDude

RTE Exit Poll:

FF: 41.6%
FG: 26.3%
Lab: 9.9%
PD's: 2.6&
SF: 7%
GP:5%
Ind: 7%

Villain

If that poll comes off FF will be back in power but with who?

I believe the 2002 poll was acurate within 1% however in 1997 it was a lot less accurate its all down totransfers now