RTE Exit Poll

Moriarty

Fianna Fail - 41.6%
Fianna Gael - 26.3%
Labour - 9.9%
PDs - 2.6%
Greens - 4.8%
Sinn Fein - 7.3%
Independants & others - 7.5%


2.5% margin of error

100gSoma

cheers..

Dave!

goddammit

shoutman

How many constituencies(sp) does it take into consideration?

MoominPapa

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0525/election1.html
3000 people at 166 polling stations. Doesn't sound like much, 18 voters a station, yet they claim a 2.5% margin of error and apparently it was very accurate last time. Still it is just the first preferences...

shoutman

Was just about to post that MoominPapa, I dont know how they can claim only a 2.5% margin of error...

AidoCQS

I beleive its countrywide

I think we have to give props to Sinn Fein, thats a solid return, from an outfit who did not exist a few elections ago.

sudzs

FF - 41.6%

...oh sweet gentle suffering Jesus.... :eek: :mad:

ArthurDent

ffs

crap crap crap

terrible result for labour.

mike65

Looks like its all in the transfers then. So much for the breakthroughs from SF and Greens.

Mike.

Gobán Saor

Looks like FF+gene pool knocking on the door of an overall majority - any one of Lab, SF or Green would make up the numbers. Bertie makes history. The Mayo boys - worse hammering than last years All-Ireland. Enda might survive to fight again. PD's hopes restricted to salvaging McDowell, Harney and O'Donnell seats from the wreckage. Disappointing for Greens, Dan Boyle conceded on Morning Ireland they'll do well to take 8 seats. No huge breakthrough for the Shinners but will probably have become a lot more transfer friendly post decommissioning, NI Assembly, candidates without a "past" etc, so could pick up quite a few seats. A monumental disaster for Labour - the second election in a row where they lost ground having been in opposition. Remember Labour plus DL were on 41 (33 + 8) seats in 1992.

Jonny Arson

I feel like crying Looks like we're on for the great Fianna Fáil con job of 2007 that will see 1977 pale into comparison.

If those percentages work out in seats it will be around (taking in transfers and likley seats loses in some constituencies):

FF 74
FG 45
Lab 19
SF 8
GP 7
PDs 4
Ind/Others 9

It's really a case of who is going to go into government with the shower of incompetent chancers. If FF-PDs-Ind form the next government I'll probably riot.

mike65

Did people re-act to the suspicion that Labour were just a bit too confident or that Rabbitte was apparently disingenuous regarding coalition.

Mike.

jjbrien

rte exit poll was done early in the mourning before the main election rush came after 5pm. I would not put too much faith in it as rte have been very pro ff trought the whole election.

Gobán Saor

There's a phrase for it..........

It's the economy, stupid.

Jonny Arson

jjbrien wrote:

rte exit poll was done early in the mourning before the main election rush came after 5pm. I would not put too much faith in it as rte have been very pro ff trought the whole election.

In fairness, their exit poll in 2002 was pretty accurate and had only a +/- 1 margin of error for each party. Take it that FF has at least 40%.

mike65

jjbrien

How do you work that out? They just said on air it was done throughout the day and the time of day is pretty much irrelevant anyway.

Mike.

jjbrien

jjbrien wrote:

rte exit poll was done early in the mourning before the main election rush came after 5pm. I would not put too much faith in it as rte have been very pro ff trought the whole election.

Thats rubbish.
On morning Ireland it said that it was conducted throughout the day from 730am to 1030pm and that the sample was bigger than 2002.
Their 2002 one was very accurate.
By the way this shows a slight rise in FF support on 2002.

PH01

Moriarty wrote:

Fianna Fail - 41.6%
Fine Gael - 26.3%
Labour - 9.9%
PDs - 2.6%
Greens - 4.8%
Sinn Fein - 7.3%
Independants & others - 7.5%


2.5% margin of error

This is pretty close to last weekends opinion poll -

But is it too early to say "5 MORE YEARS!!!"

Jonny Arson

Jonny Arson wrote:

I feel like crying Looks like we're on for the great Fianna Fáil con job of 2007 that will see 1977 pale into comparison.

If those percentages work out in seats it will be around (taking in transfers and likley seats loses in some constituencies):

FF 74
FG 45
Lab 19
SF 8
GP 7
PDs 4
Ind/Others 9

It's really a case of who is going to go into government with the shower of incompetent chancers. If FF-PDs-Ind form the next government I'll probably riot.

Codswallop.
FF got a huge overall majority in 77,they won't this time.

By the way also this is a first preference exit poll.
Transfers may be different and do make all the difference.

However it's already showing again how this board and politics.ie is a magnet for the disaffected as opposed to being a reflection of reality.
But then I always thought that.
Mood for change my árse based on this

I'll caveat this strongly though as counting only begins at 9am.

PoolDude

jjbrien wrote:

rte exit poll was done early in the mourning before the main election rush came after 5pm. I would not put too much faith in it as rte have been very pro ff trought the whole election.

Clutching at straws?

PH01

jjbrien wrote:

I would not put too much faith in it as rte have been very pro ff trought the whole election.

RTE Pro FF!!!???
You've got to be kidding!

cooperguy

What percentage is needed to form the government? Im trying to work out the possibilities.

PH01

PH01 wrote:

This is pretty close to last weekends opinion poll -

But is it too early to say "5 MORE YEARS!!!"

If ahern is Taoiseach ie he has the numbers in whatever make up,then he's hardly going to be pushed in his own party-Especiall given the storm he made it through.

Ghupta Yahd

What happened to the mood for change?

mike65

T'was a media invention.

Mike.

cooperguy

cooperguy wrote:

What percentage is needed to form the government? Im trying to work out the possibilities.

Thats impossible to quantify.

You see this poll may not be as accurate as the last one given that this time there is a very strong transfer pact between FG and Labour.

I wouldnt go making any assumptions yet other than FF are unlikely to lose a lot of seats.

Lennoxschips

well, the people get what they vote for. and they will get cronyism and incompetence. sad, but true, and reminds me why i live where i live.

wonder what will come out of the mahon tribunal.

Badabing

Going by this Fianna Fail will get at least 73 seats, its all down to tranfers with Fine Gael and Labour now, the last seats in the 5 seaters will be even more crucial now.

miju

oh sweet dear christ FF aren't going anywhere :mad: :mad: :mad: . though in a way thats not a bad thing because at least they'll get it in the neck for whats coming down the road for the economy rather than FG/LAB

sudzs

I predict a riot! :cool: