RTE Exit Poll

100gSoma

jjbrien wrote:

rte exit poll was done early in the mourning before the main election rush came after 5pm. I would not put too much faith in it as rte have been very pro ff trought the whole election.

best point so far.... I cannot believe these figures giving the "vibe" of people wanting to give FF a kick in the pants.

mike65

*shakes head*

Mike.

Zebra3

Moriarty wrote:

PDs - 2.6%

2.5% margin of error

Hopefully that leaves the PDs on 0.1%. :cool:

jjbrien

Ghupta Yahd wrote:

What happened to the mood for change?

Well if things are the way rte say which i hope not then people in Ireland are like sheep and dont know any better. If this is the case I have lost all faith in the people of Ireland and I might emmigate as another 5 years of FF I could not take.

Oh and by the way my mother was working at a polling office yesterday and she told me the exit poll guys were only there between 10:00 and 10:30 they did not come back at all after that.

100gSoma

Forget those morning exit poll stats... I'm telling you. I will be STUNNED if there is not better news come 2pm.

DMC

jjbrien wrote:

Oh and by the way my mother was working at a polling office yesterday and she told me the exit poll guys were only there between 10:00 and 10:30 they did not come back at all after that.

Which only means they asked a few people at that polling station, and spent the next half hour at another, to build up the picture.

jjbrien

jjbrien wrote:

Well if things are the way rte say which i hope not then people in Ireland are like sheep and dont know any better. If this is the case I have lost all faith in the people of Ireland and I might emmigate as another 5 years of FF I could not take.

so you don't want a democracy then.I suggest you emmigrate to a dictator

Oh and by the way my mother was working at a polling office yesterday and she told me the exit poll guys were only there between 10:00 and 10:30 they did not come back at all after that.

Thats because they moved from polling station to polling station...

Folks it's everybodies Ireland not just yours you know.
If this doesnt go the way you want.

100gSoma

100gSoma wrote:

Forget those morning exit poll stats... I'm telling you. I will be STUNNED if there is not better news come 2pm.

I know like the last RTÉ exit poll was so inaccurate (it wasn't)...

But I'd agree with you there will be better rainbow news than this poll as they are working on a better transfer pact.You'd better hope that FG arent taking seats off labour and vice versa though.

jjbrien

Tristrame wrote:

so you don't want a democracy then.I suggest you emmigrate to a dictator
Thats because they moved from polling station to polling station...

Folks it's everybodies Ireland not just yours you know.
If this doesnt go the way you want.

10 years is long enough for any goverment. If FF get in they will be very lazy we have seen this happening in the last year of thier 10 year term. Tristrame I am a democrat but I just dont put any faith in this ixit poll. Trasfers and 2 3 4 prefrences will decide the next goverment. Its all to play for.

jank

i would take this poll with a pich of salt. I expect FF to be in the high 30's and Labout nearing the 11%

Sometime exit polls are right sometimes they are wrong ala 2004 US elections and even some of the exit polls the BBC carry out.

Just wait and see how it pans out..

slumped

Can I be the first to say I am thrilled for FF and Bertie. Delighted to see him returned for another 5 years.

Would be even happier if he took SF with him but PDs and Indos will do.

S

JonnyXXX

My God I hope you are right. I really couldnt face FF in power again. Think I would have to leave the country!!

ninebeanrows

Terrible news this morning alright.

There is some shadow of hope though, Greens + Labour + Fine Gael are just 1 percentage point of Fianna Fail, with abit of luck perhaps these folks will do better once counting begins and at least put pressure on FF to do something it said it wouldn't ie. a coalition with Sinn Fein, which would cause riots.

DMC

Its a bit melodramatic to say yer all upping sticks. Its a pity Ryanair arent having their seat sale today... :rolleyes:

The last two BBC general election exit polls were spot on, iirc, the 2005 on was accurate to within one seat. Also, exit polls are of a higher sample than any newspaper, who average around 1000 people.

100gSoma

haha.... from www.breakingnews.ie

I hate sensationalist journo headlines like this...


Exit poll gives Ahern record third term
25/05/2007 - 08:52:36

tuppence

DMC wrote:

Which only means they asked a few people at that polling station, and spent the next half hour at another, to build up the picture.

I hope it goes the other way but I fear the worst. Its not about how long they were there for its that they got 3000 people didnt they all around the country? Its all about transfers I would say. Fingers crossed or by the look of it there'l be another wave of emigration yet!

Jackz

This poll was pretty accurate last year.

100gSoma

Prime Minister Bertie Ahern, who heads the center-right Progressive Democrats, voted in Dublin yesterday. Results are not expected until tomorrow because of the tallying system. (luke macgregor/reuters)

Do these guys even read what they print?

Heinrich

Why bother counting votes if the exit polls make such wonderful predictions? Let's wait and see what the tallpeople are getting paid to do.

Lennoxschips

PDs need not worry if FF are on nearly 42%. They'll get plenty of transfers.

BeatNikDub

tuppence wrote:

I hope it goes the other way but I fear the worst. Its not about how long they were there for its that they got 3000 people didnt they all around the country? Its all about transfers I would say. Fingers crossed or by the look of it there'l be another wave of emigration yet!

My feelings exactly.
Im still holding out for a rainbow but got to start preparing for the worst. :mad:

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Lennoxschips

**** it, let FF preside over the implosion of their mismanaged economy

cooperguy

Weathercheck wrote:

Terrible news this morning alright.

There is some shadow of hope though, Greens + Labour + Fine Gael are just 1 percentage point of Fianna Fail, with abit of luck perhaps these folks will do better once counting begins and at least put pressure on FF to do something it said it wouldn't ie. a coalition with Sinn Fein, which would cause riots.

No it wouldnt. Everybody in the country knows only too well that both FF and FG will go into coalition with whoever it takes to gain power. There will be a couple of days of backtracking and "in the national interest speaches and then it will be forgotten about. I have not talked to a single person who believes either side when they say "We wont go into coalition with X"

100gSoma

100gSoma wrote:

Prime Minister Bertie Ahern, who heads the center-right Progressive Democrats, voted in Dublin yesterday. Results are not expected until tomorrow because of the tallying system. (luke macgregor/reuters)

Do these guys even read what they print?

Hey maybe they know something

As for the pd's,if these figures hold out it may help them a bit but since most constituencies have 3 FF candidates, that means the pd's are looking for a number 4 to help them.
I wouldnt like to be in that position.

gandalf

If this is correct then it is very disappointing news. But as everyone has said it will be down to transfers.

The only good thing if this is accurate is FF will have to clean the mess they have made over the last 10 years.

DeepBlue

It would seem from this that all the floating "Get FF out" vote went to FG as they were the only party that could be guaranteed not to go into coalition with FF .
Voters may have remembered Lab in '92 and decided not to risk a vote for Labour turning into a vote for FF back in power.

I'm very surprised that the Greens haven't done better - again it might be the anti-FF vote heading in FG's direction.
As has been said it's all about transfers - the counts will be tense and fascinating .

However if I was in FF HQ this morning I'd be ordering more champagne and if I were in FG HQ I'd be cancelling the champagne order.

One caveat though - just because the RTE exit poll was very accurate the last time doesn't mean it will be as accurate this time but there's no point ignoring the way the result is headed.

Badabing

gandalf wrote:

If this is correct then it is very disappointing news. But as everyone has said it will be down to transfers.

The only good thing if this is accurate is FF will have to clean the mess they have made over the last 10 years.

Obviously the people of Ireland trust them to do just that, TRUST being the buzz word.

horseflesh

Did anyone REALLY expect any different??

100gSoma

apparently paddy power have paid out already on Bertie... Is this true?