RTE Exit Poll

is_that_so

Jackz wrote:

This poll was pretty accurate last year.

It was but as one analyst observed on RTE this morning FF got every "bounce of the ball" the last time and the FG vote collapsed. And that poll is just first preferences. If it goes back to a 1997 type of scenario as suggested, then FF need the PDs to come through, which is by no means guaranteed, and some independents who paradoxically seem to have suffered as a result of the vote for FF and FG. I get the impression that the push to get votes for the main parties has worked. But as pointed out, transfers will determine it and there is no logic to where some transfers go. Things should start to get interesting around midnight tonight, when that "final seat" in constituencies are being determined.

DMC

100gSoma wrote:

apparently paddy power have paid out already on Bertie... Is this true?

Politics.ie are saying so, yes.

EDIT: and now its on paddypower.com

ednwireland

Jackz wrote:

This poll was pretty accurate last year.

yeh but it was a pretty easy election to call esp. with the fg vote collapse i dont remember anything apart from a pd vote collapse (again) until mcdowells lampost incident showing anything but ff gains

gbh

I don't know whether to congratulate Fianna Fail or complain. Sort of mixed feelings and glad its all over. Probably the better vote managment by FF has won them the day. I dont think FG managed their vote management well throughout the campaign, maybe they were too cautiaus and candidates preferred high personal tallys than bring in another candidate. I think the independents will be important now if FF are around 75 and PDs around 5 which is what seems to be the case now. Maybe somone like Tony Gregory could be important again. Big decision for him though, but just speculating at the moment.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

DeepBlue

How can people extrapolate from the exit poll to the number of seats for each party? What methodology are they using? Guesswork?
Given the vagaries of the PR/STV system there will be many seats decided on the last few 100's of votes so it's not *that* cut and dried.

Previous election counts had candidates who were home and dry early in the count losing out and candidates who'd been written off coming back and getting the seat. It's this that makes the count compelling viewing.
If constituencies are tight and the results are close then it could be late Saturday/early Sunday before the final seats are decided.

Jackz

Thats zactly what I meant dave.

DeepBlue

DeepBlue wrote:

again it might be the anti-FF vote heading in FG's direction.

But FG are only up 4% in this exit poll-if thats true it's dismal.
Secondly if thats all that the NEW anti FF vote amounts too,its also dismal.

As has been said it's all about transfers - the counts will be tense and fascinating .

Agreed,I'll be glued to the radio today!

jhegarty

Transfers... won't somebody think of the transfers..


If it was X in the box then Enda could pack up and go home , but its not...

BadCharlie

Better the Devil you know then the Devil you don't.
But FF im sick of them.

Badabing

Last time Fianna Fail got 41.5% of the vote but got 49% of the seats.

EdgarAllenPoo

Horrible news imo, now we have to look forward to another five years of wasted money going to consultants(not doctors),developers and projects that will run seriously over budget, a health service with no new insentive for improvement and government parties way to cosy with the idea of a private health service amongst other things.

Voting that shower in for another five years just ensures that nothing will change or hence improve.

E92

If the exit poll turns out to be true, it will be good for FG in the sense that we will have increased our vote, but theres no getting away from the fact that almost certainly FF will now by 2012 be in power for 23 out of 25 years. I really feel sorry for Labour, I'm glad the PDs are down, surprised by the lowness of both the Greens and Sinn Féin, oddly enough SF doing well would have helped the rainbow because they steal FF votes and consequently seats(but I still hate that party). I simply cant understand why Labour are down, in particular I feel so disappointed for Pat Rabbitte, indeed the fact that he might be Tánaiste helped to make sure that I gave Ciarán Lynch in Cork South Central a vote yesterday, it just goes to show that despite what people say about Enda and Pat that it doesn't make any difference in reality. I said it before and I'll say it again, the stengths of the party leader don't seem to matter, people were praising Pat Rabbitte and saying how well he performs on air and how he is the 'saving grace' of the alternative, yet Labour are down, people say there is a credability issue with Enda Kenny, yet more people appear to have voted FG this time around.

The reason why FF almost certainly will win is because despite peoples protestations about the health service, crime etc, what really matters to the ordinary citizen above everything else at all costs is how much money is in their arse pocket. Its sad in reality that people see money they have as the number 1 at all costs, including waiting in traffic, not being able ro go out lkate at night on their own etc. Anyway well done to FF, hopefully they can achieve more this time around, because God knows they have a lot of ground to make up in terms of their record in Government.

is_that_so

Tristrame wrote:

But FG are only up 4% in this exit poll-if thats true it's dismal.
Secondly if thats all that the NEW anti FF vote amounts too,its also dismal.
Agreed,I'll be glued to the radio today!

Pat Kenny will have some initial tallies plus some more analysis on that poll.

jjbrien

Breakingnews.ie online poll

Which party will you vote for in Election '07?
FF
225
(27.37%)
FG
246
(29.93%)
Labour
105
(12.77%)
PDs
31
(3.77%)
Green
83
(10.10%)
Sinn Fein
89
(10.83%)
Independents
21
(2.55%)
Undecided
11
(1.34%)
Not Registered
11
(1.34%)

But I still would not put much faith in it FG are inline with previous red sea polls labour looks FG about right as well but FF seems to be quite low.

seamus

Internet polls will always show a very different result to the actual poll. Much of the FF vote comes from the older generations who vote FF whatever the weather, and who would not be the kind to participate in internet polls

Green and Labour incidentally always seem to come out better in online polls, probably because there's a better young representation than in the actual ballot.

As Badabing points out:

Last time Fianna Fail got 41.5% of the vote but got 49% of the seats.

I think it's all going to come down to transfers this time. FF did exceptionally well on transfer in 2002, and in candidates being elected as the "last man standing". If for example, people decided this time around that they'd still vote number one for their usual party, but give number 2 to someone who they think has been active, or is otherwise not in the same party as their number one, then this can swing it massively.

In theory an exit poll could be hugely off, but it's generally likely that if a voter gave FF their number one, then their subsequent preferences were also FF candidates, which is what makes the exit poll stable.

jjbrien

Does anybody know the turn out figures?

Money Shot

jjbrien wrote:

Does anybody know the turn out figures?

Talk of in and around the 70% mark...

CerebralCortex

seamus wrote:

Internet polls will always show a very different result to the actual poll. Much of the FF vote comes from the older generations who vote FF whatever the weather, and who would not be the kind to participate in internet polls

Hence "rock the vote".

gbh

Exit polls are usually fairly accurate and the share of first preferance votes does indicate that you will get a lot of lower preference votes as well.

E92

I would take any poll other than the exit poll with a pinch of salt, FF's vote is highest with the older generations, indeed it was said sopme time back that 90% of pensioners vote FF. Obviously I would love if that breakingnews.ie poll were true, but unfortunately thats not the way things will turn out.

Sonderval

Interesting poll jjbrien.

People should remember that the RTE poll is an exit poll and the suggested deviation may be 3%. Thats not to say that the actual deviation is going to be less then 3%. It may in fact be alot more.

People need to wait and see how the vote settles before jumping to conclusions.

EdgarAllenPoo

One of the things that put me off Fianna Fáil(though I needed no encouragement there) was their €16 billion spending plan. They must think they will have monopoly money but in fact it comes from taxpayers and thats's quite a high figure to come from mine and your pocket.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

I just heard the latest wicklow tally with boxes open from a cross section right across the county.

It looks like Dick Roche is going to top the poll and that the result based on this would be 2ff,2FG and 1 labour here.

Nothing for the greens and this would have been one of their favoured seats.

A degree of salt but it was the labour man that gave this info out on east coast fm.

Sonderval

Sonderval wrote:

People should remember that the RTE poll is an exit poll and the suggested deviation may be 3%. Thats not to say that the actual deviation is going to be less then 3%. It may in fact be alot more.

People need to wait and see how the vote settles before jumping to conclusions.

The labour Tally guy in wicklow suggested the latest tally result here pretty much mirrors the RTÉ exit poll so far and it covers a much bigger percentage of the poll so far in this county.

It does not take account of local variations though yet so a major pinch of salt.

Hippo

According to my tally source, in Dublin south east so far it's Andrews 27%, Quinn & Creighton 18%, Gormley 15%. McDowell vote down by 50%. Unbelievable (in every sense) performance from Andrews.

100gSoma

This looks better...

12% (24 of 204 boxes) have been tallied in the five-seat constituency of Wicklow.

Fianna Fáil candidates Dick Roche and Joe Behan are ahead with 16% and 15% of the vote respectively.
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With boxes from all areas opened, Fine Gael's Billy Timmins is showing well with 13%, his running mate Andrew Doyle scoring well at 9%.

Labour's Liz McManus is also in a strong position at 10%, with her running mate Nicky Kelly at 4%.

The Green candidate Deirdre de Burca currently stands at 6%.

Looking at party share, Fianna Fáil is at 36% (2002, 31%), Fine Gael at 23% (15%), Labour 15% (29), Green 6% (5%).

Half of the 139 ballot boxes have been opened in Dublin North.

The boxes come from the north of the constituency and do not include Swords, which is likely to have an impact on the constituency's result.

Fianna Fáil's Michael Kennedy, Fine Gael's James Reilly and Trevor Sargent of the Greens are all reported to be polling well.

Gumbyman

Andrews has put in a tremendous effort to be fair. He started work over a year ago on his campaign and he actually gets stuff done. Sorted out the parking on my street. Hope he gets in. Man of action. Tough constituency though and very exciting. Ruari Q, Gormley, McDowell, Creighton and Andrews. Has to be one of the better ones to watch really. Actually - are there any better?

nesf

I can't believe some of the reactions on this thread. Firstly it's only an exit poll and secondly, you do all realise that your party occasionally loses in a democracy.